Light rain, maybe some mix, on Wednesday
A complicated but somewhat diffuse low-pressure system will sweep through the South and East over the next 36 hours, bringing periods of light rain with possibly some sleet and snow to Southwest Virginia. Without a solid feed of cold air in the lower layers of the atmosphere, the potential for wintry precipitation will not be maximized with this event for our region, though some periods of sleet and snow definitely cannot be ruled out, especially west of Interstate 81 and in elevations above 3,000 feet. Temperatures on this Tuesday night are in the 40s to low 50s after highs in the 50s to near 60s, and there do not appear to 
be strong mechanisms in place to trigger a large-scale temperature drop to near freezing throughout the atmosphere and across much of the region as we have seen in several recent wintry weather situations. But there may be just enough cold air to tap for some patchy sleet and wet snow to develop as rain moves in, especially near the front and back ends on Wednesday morning and again Wednesday evening. In any event, we are not talking about large amounts of precipitation, as evening balloon soundings show very dry air from 1 to 2 miles up over Blacksburg. As is often the case, our region may be caught between the stronger flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture to the south and the stronger system dynamics to the northwest. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is projecting only 0.10 to 0.25 inch of liquid for most of the region east of Interstate 77 over the next 24 hours. If it were all snow and it all stuck, that would only be 1 to 2.5 inches, presuming a 10:1 ratio … and it almost certainly will not be all snow, and even if it were, it definitely would not all stick, and it likely will be too warm aloft for a 10:1 ratio. So this looks to be more of a nuisance event rather than anything with high impact, but beware if traveling into higher elevations or west and northwest toward West Virginia, where the impact could be much greater with a few inches of snow possible. We will keep an eye out for surprises, even localized ones, as we’ve had a track record of these in small wintry precipitation situations dating back to late December.
Regarding the weekend … you may see lots of chitter-chatter out there in the virtual realm about the 
potential storm disappearing or re-appearing on the models. For Southwest Virginia interests, I think it’s very likely that we will NOT experience a major winter storm (widespread 8+ inches) and that any strong low that forms will develop too late, off shore or too far to the north. However, it is quite possible that a “shortwave” trough moving around the larger trough will trigger some level of precipitation — leaning to snow at this point — over the weekend. Often in this region, we experience light to moderate precipitation from a disturbance moving through on its way to blowing up a larger storm system farther east or north. This is what I think is far more likely than experiencing a major storm, and why I haven’t dropped off the weekend potential just yet. Neither has the HPC, showing at least light precipitation amounts widespread for the weekend.
February 12, 2013 - 9:23 PM
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Just checking in, 41º with a 25º dew point, no wind right now.
Currently 39 at 9:30 up here on Doppler Ridge. Humidity is at 43%. I guess it is getting to be “mud season” up here instead of the snow season.
Kevin I know you don’t get into politics on the blog but do you agree with the presidents statement that superstorm Sandy and the droughts and floods are caused by climate change and that’s the “overwhelming opinion of science” not random occurrences.
Superstorm Sandy was caused by a polar trough absorbing a hurricane. Neither the polar trough nor the hurricane were exceptional events for October. The timing and placement of the two was what caused Sandy to become something exceptional — and the fact that it happened just right to draw it into a heavily populated area. Just this past month, a North Atlantic low became much stronger than Sandy, but stayed over open water, and largely went unnoticed in the media and general public.
I have seen no arguments advanced by reputable meteorologists or climatologists that suggest Superstorm Sandy was caused primarily by climate change. I have seen arguments made that increased ocean temperatures, higher sea levels and extreme high pressure blocking in northern latitudes linked to climate change contributed to Sandy. To say Sandy would not have occurred without increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is well outside the bounds of available data and the resolution of computer models. There is no conclusive way to say yes or no.
Many studies have linked warming climate to precipitation extremes in general. Linking to specific events — a particular drought or flood — is much more difficult.
That’s about as deep into the can of worms as I can go or am willing to go. Short-term weather and local climate are more my focus and interest here, not long-term global climate.
Looks like rain is moving northward out of NC now into some of our southern counties. Let me know if you see any snow or sleet down there.
I will add that I think it’s always, without exception, overly simplistic to say lone factor X — whatever X is — caused weather event Z to occur. Meteorology is extraordinarily complex, both on the macro and micro level. 50 miles difference in the track of a shortwave or 500 vertical feet of temperatures 1/2 a degree warmer or colder than forecast can have enormous ramifications on what occurs at the surface in a given area. Unfortunately, neither the social media-obsessed society nor the intensely partisan political scene has patience for complexity or nuance. So we see sweeping and overgeneralized statements being made by public officials of many different political stripes.
From forecasts I have seen on TV (both “13″ and “7″), on the NWS website, and on weather.com, there is general consensus among them that early morning sleet/snow is unlikely in Roanoke city (not including Mill Mountain and the higher elevations above Avenham Avenue). Big deal …. I suppose it could still happen. They all think it is more likely late afternoon and especially tomorrow evening, if it is still precipating then.
Robert in Suffolk, you just asked a Q that got one of Kevin’s most expansive replies on a question regarding climate change that I have ever seen him make. And I have avidly followed this blog for over 4 years. Congrats.
And a huge BRAVO to you, KM.
Dropped probably about three degrees here in Roanoke county next to Northside high school , 48 degrees now
So far the first round of moisture is shifting more east than north, and the 2nd is still mostly way back toward the Ozarks. Kind of a typical split on these kind of strung out systems. Wondering if we get much of anything in our neck of the woods on Wednesday.
I got concerned that from the time I got home around 530 to about 830 or so, the temps here dropped 10 degrees. It’s dropped down to 40 now in New River, but the Dew Point is up to 31 now, so I think we’re likely out of the woods barring some changes to the airmass overnight from colder/drier air moving south along the mountains.
And Kevin, I was about to mention the Radar echoes…I’m doubting we see precipitation totals measuring in tenths of an inch, and maybe not even measurable amounts. Looking kinda doubtful right now, barring some regeneration in between the two main areas…unless the secondary area manages to kick up something as it passes by.
Thanks for the insight Kevin and thanks Doug. I thought the statement was an over generalization by the president. I don’t think science leans in favor of his views in a conclusive way.
What do you think giles and craig will see as far as school delays ?
Best way my pappy always said to predict the weather is look out the window!!!!!!
One thing I NEVER do is predict school delays and closures. But looks doubtful to me anyone in SW Virginia is delaying or closing based on numerous ground reports of rain and temperatures above freezing.
Good Wednesday morning from up here on Doppler Ridge. It is 36 with light rain falling. Already have had “0.03″ inches of rain. Fire in the wood stove is going again.
I think we will see some snowfall but almost “0″ snow accummulation on the weekend.
Rain and 37 here in Abingdon. The airport here is warmer as ususal but it was also 37 at home when I left. No sight, sound or report of snow or ice seems to be all rain. Next chance of wintry precip will be Fri afternoon thru Sat.
Last week’s Northeast storm has made it to Britain today. The UK Met Office color codes its warnings. Today almost the whole country is under a yellow snow alert! Bad choice of colours. The Scotsman also used TWC’s ‘name’ for the storm.
That’s it. I’m moving to Palmer,Alaska with my brother and his family. We’ve been having some sad winters (snow wise) over the past few years. Yes, we get a snow or two…if we are lucky three. But all of the warm air in between? Very frustrating. I sure do miss winters that we had just that…winter. Anyway, you guys are discussing things like whether or not increased carbon dioxide caused Sandy and I’m whining about not having enough snow.
A couple hudredths of rain this morning, but it was bone dry almost all night. Looks like daytime precipitation will be light and spotty, though some stuff is trying to build in eastern TN. Given current temps and dew points, it looks like it will be difficult for there to be much in the way of frozen precipitation this way until the backside of the system, when the precipitation is leaving.
41 and rain here.
What’s the story for Saturday?
Giving up on the weekend storm.
Story on Saturday is larger storm very unlikely, smaller storm increasingly unlikely. May actually be an Alberta clipper type system with light snow Friday or Saturday as an Arctic front plows in. It will be windy and cold with mountain snow showers.
Well, I don’t like that at all.
I can tell you having followed this stuff for a dozen years around here that having a non-event or fairly weak event for snow is the result of a potential winter storm situation a week out something like 3 out of 4 or 4 out of 5 times.
I hate to say it, but I’m leaning toward giving up hope on this winter’s prospects for a decent snow (my definition of a decent snow is something over a couple inches of slush). I know we have a long way to go before the end of official Winter but it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
Also interesting how systems that ride up from the gulf seem to split when they hit the spine of the Blue Ridge.
Heading to Vegas later today…I’ll place a bet or two that winter,for all practical purposes, is over for at least my neck of the woods!!
I agree with what Kevin said concerning climate change. To me it is not about science, its about a narrative and a tool which the media and politicins use to their advantage. You have to wonder why they suddenly switched from using the term ‘Global Warming’ to ‘Climate Change’? Perhaps to attribute more and more weather events to it? Of course now it is being blamed for events in space! Just a few days ago a reporter asked a scientist if this asteroid that is going to pass close to earth was caused by climate change? Seriously. If that is where we are at in this ‘debate’ then the science of it is sadly irrelevant.
If the weekend storm stays off the boards, the next best shot would be about a week later when it appears a wet storm system may encounter some level of cold air wedging/damming in the East.
But the overall pattern may be slipping toward milder in the long term — not unexpected with March on the horizon, though not always the case. So time is running out.
I aint giving up…come on snow
As far as the president overgeneralizing..
and leaning in a conclusive way..(which is a confusing phrase)
here is the AMS position on it from 2012 since this
site is mostly concerned with the weather end of the science involved.
(from Wikipedia)
American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded:
There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate system and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved monitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and water availability. Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy discussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitigate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change and the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same time, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should include adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.[59]
43 with sleet & rain near Lexington.
Joe: The question was not about whether climate change exists or not. The question was about whether Superstorm Sandy, specifically, was caused primarily by climate change. I am not aware of any reputable scientific opinions that state that Sandy would not have occurred at all without climate change, but am aware of many that suggest it may have contributed to some elements of its development.
I have not yet read or heard the president’s words firsthand on the subject from last night, only seen them secondhand so far, so I can’t cast judgment on that at all (and won’t, since I don’t do politics here). I will read a transcript once I get the opportunity.
To clarify my position: I am NOT in the camp that says that there is ZERO man-induced climate change. But I am also NOT in the camp that attributes climate change as the primary cause of most weather events.
One reason I don’t go into this subject much is most people want it to be cut and dried all or nothing, not complex and nuanced.
Wow, the AMS just lost any credibility they may have had. That absolutely is not science based but pure speculation.
I’m glad you don’t do or allow politics here. My sister is on a Labrador Retriever forum, and 90% of all their posts are political, whether it’s reps vs. dems., gun fans vs. gun controllers, or even north vs. south. It’s hardly about the dogs anymore. Kudos for keeping politics out of here.
VDOT Cams show snow in Waynesboro and on Afton. Rain and 42 degrees down in Charlottesville though.
Kevin,,
I was responding to the comment by Robert in Suffolk
, which did not mention Sandy..but said ..
” I thought the statement was an over generalization by the president. I don’t think science leans in favor of his views in a conclusive way.”
Joe: Thanks for clarification.
Pretty apparent at this point that the bulk of the wintry weather will stay north and northwest of Roanoke/New River valleys.
Sorry Kevin for opening this can of worms, but I value your opinion and as soon as I heard that statement I wanted to hear what your thoughts were. Joe I did mention Sandy in my original question to Kevin
Yep, John in Ruckersville, Im throwing in the towel! These past 3 so called winters have really sucked! I guess we might get another decent winter within the next 5 years if we are lucky. Like I said I have been here since 03 and the only winter that we have reached our average snowfall from what I remember is 09-10. Oh well onto spring and caretaking grass!
41.7* here. Looks like the closest snow or whatever is NW towards Abbots store/Newcastle. Potts Mt. and Paint Bank seems to have a patch of it also.
Reports of snow at Harrisonburg with temperatures in the low 40s. Thick cold air aloft there, thin layer above freezing near ground.
Currently 39 here on the ridge and the cloud level is really low. You can’t even see the Doppler. It is enveloped with the clouds.
That would explain what I thought I saw at 8:30 this morning. Rain was hittin the windshield but spreadin out in small drops. Had all indications of ice mixed in but the temp was 41*.
How much snow for the weekend?
All it’s been in my neck of the NRV today is a chilly, spotty rain and drizzle, and clouds are shrouding the tops of the mountains pretty well.
Comment #45…Totally agreed Jared! Told KM this earlier! Comment #50…NONE
Too early girls.
Some light snow with a clipper-type system Friday is all that appears to be out there later this week.
Yep….I’m all for winter being over…I’m ready for robins and warm sunny days so I can start attending some of the many, many great outdoor events planned for Roanoke….this coming spring, summer and fall….
Next Friday already a 60% chance of snow showers
Robert in Suffolk, thank you, but I did nothing. KM deserves your thanks. I am like you, Robert. Perhaps a bit more so.
***** Please skip the rest of this if you have seen my theories before on global warming!!
******
I am a skeptic about global warming (although a huge supporter of the urban and airport heat island effect being real), but I must admit if these worldwide temps keep on climbing for another 12-15 years, I will jump on the bandwagon. I have studied quite a bit about the periods of warming and cooling that have gone on for centuries and even milleniums/ia, and I think that due to possible shifts in solar cycles and other things, ol’ Mother Earth is about to start a cooling phase by about 2020 or so. Which will start to cause much bigger problems than global warming (shorter growing seasons worldwide, for one thing).
Matt, thanks very much (or TYVM, as I like to abbreviate) for your comment just after noon about the Golden Retriever blog. Both my wife and I are IMMENSE dog enthusiasts, and both of our dogs were mixed breed Goldens (mostly Golden, as opposed to the Canadian beer, Molson Golden). For that blog to have been sabotaged is, in the immortal words of my mom’s favorite comedian Norm Crosby, “REGUSTING!” (combo of “revolting” and “disgusting”)
As others have said, Kevin, huge thanks to you for keeping politics out of this blog.
Well, whether people think winter is over or not, whether they want winter to be over or not, I’ll still be here blogging about weather. There are 3 other seasons that can have lots of unusual twists of their own.
Feb. 22-23 is the next timeframe I’m watching for winter storm potential. As I’ve said before, about 75-80 percent of these long-range potential windows don’t produce a significant winter storm in our region. But part of my paycheck depends on watching them, anyway.
And we appreciate the 4-season effort you make, Kevin! Growing up, my strongest interest was hurricanes, living in Virginia Beach. I didn’t care much about winter weather except that I hoped for some snow days to get off from school, but I didn’t really focus on it. Summer storms and hurricanes were more significant for me personally, so that’s what drew my interest. With a much lower impact of both on weather here (relatively speaking), I’ve grown into more a watcher of winter storms because they’re more fun for me, personally…but I still try to stay keenly aware of the weather year-round.
The relationship between politics and science is fraught with peril. Whenever politicians try to dictate which research does and does not get funded based on whether it supports their political agenda, or whenever scientific data are manipulated or distorted to advance a specific political agenda, it’s not science anymore.
Last week’s New England snowstorm has now crossed the Atlantic as is dumping snow on Scotland.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=124
The “ever reliable” Old Farmers Almanac agrees with Kevin’s suggestion of a Feb 22-23 snow storm.
Feb 21-28: Snow, then flurries, cold.
Trying to stay with the science, there is some evidence that all planets in our solar system are warming, and those others can’t be affected by a human’s carbon footprint.
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-other-planets-solar-system.htm
I’ve just included this one link and you can find many, many others that lean more one way or the other. It’s clear to me that nobody knows the answer for sure.
Check out the New River/Roanoke valleys/Blue Ridge dry slot on the HPC 1-inch snowfall percentages for Friday-Saturday evening timeframe.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013021400f072.gif
Agree with all on the religion and political issue. There are some that are fanatics on the subject. Don’t know much, but when you argue with ignorant folks you’ll lose everytime, cause they will drag you down on their level then beat you with expierence.
Kevin,
Although I may not post as much during the “3 other seasons,” please know that I still religiously follow the blog year round. You and everyone else that posts during the “down time” keep me reading WJ blog on a daily basis. Y’all are just too much fun at any time during the year.
Having not followed previous Winter Storms after they moved away from the US, I have a question. Is it normal for them to move all the way across the Atlantic to hit the UK?
Doug, I have heard the same thing you have about it possibly starting to cool in a few years. Seems I read that somewhere online a couple of years back. Btw I also recently learned that the winter of 1780 was much more severe than 1778 (or maybe the facts got misconstrued many years later and applied to 1778). In 1780 the Chesapeake bay froze over! I can’t even imagine how cold it must have been for Washington’s troops in New Jersey. Hopefully it won’t get THAT cold anytime soon.
With the prevailing westerly flow, quite a few of our storm systems end up in Europe, including several hurricanes in an extratropical form.
Wow, can’t imagine the Chesapeake freezing over! Heck can’t even get cold enough for snow anymore. What could have caused it to become so cold back then? Wonder if it could ever cycle back around and be that severe cold again?
That time was part of a period known as the Little Ice Age. From Wikiapedia: NASA defines the term as a cold period between AD 1550 and AD 1850 and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.
At some point the climate will cycle to a cold period again but who knows when?
Well, it now looks like February will …. check that, “might” …. make this winter a trifecta of 3 straight months warmer than normal. Thanks to what the Weather Wizard might call “blowtorch days” (both Monday and yesterday were warmer than normal by double digits), the month to date is now warmer than normal for both cities. Today’s low through 5 PM at RRA was 43, and although that will certainly drop back into the 30s by 11:59PM, today won’t cause the average to drop. And tomorrow will hike it some. The weekend will knock it back a little.