Milder Monday; wintry mix Tuesday AM
UPDATE 8:30 AM: Winter weather advisory issued Roanoke and west for mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain on Tuesday morning. END UPDATE
After another cold morning with lows in the teens Monday (following 13 at Blacskburg and 19 at Roanoke on Sunday morning), temperatures bounce back to near 50 on Monday as the thermometer roller coaster continues. A new storm system approaches Monday night and early Tuesday. The main energy of the storm is going into the Great Lakes, so we’ll be far enough removed that precipitation amounts are likely to be light — mostly .10 to .25 inch, according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, with even potentially a zone of less than that in the shadow of the Blue Ridge. The moisture that does arrive may overrun enough cold, dry air for a period of snow, sleet and freezing rain late Monday night and early Tuesday. As it stands on Sunday evening, the HPC is only highlighting higher elevation areas in West Virginia and North Carolina for anything more than a small chance of seeing .01 inch of ice. I wouldn’t be surprised if this expanded or increased a little bit during the day Monday, but certainly, no major ice storm or winter storm of any kind, nor a heavy rainfall, is expected Tuesday.
The storm system Tuesday will swing through a cold front that will re-introduce Arctic air for mid to late week — highs 30s to low 40s, lows back in the teens and 20s by Wednesday. A stronger low-pressure system moving from the central U.S. into the Ohio Valley by late week will again spread moisture over our region late Thursday into Friday. There will likely be more moisture than in the first system, and also a deeper pool of cold air. The chances of a significant period of ice or wintry mix at the start of the rain are greater than with the first system, but as of Sunday evening, it appears that blocking features to the north may wiggle out of place just enough to allow the low and a high off the Southeast coast to sweep in enough mild air aloft and eventually at the surface to keep this from being a long-lasting, widespread winter storm in our region. This is still subject to change, but that’s how it looks for now.
And that brings us to the snow meter, which I will post below near midnight (since it’s primarily a newspaper item, not online, I don’t post it here until the day of publication). I need a turnaround soon to save my season …
*****************
Snow meter, 2/18-2/24
(0 to 10 chance of getting at least 1 inch of snow)
Roanoke 4 snowflakes ****
Blacksburg 4 snowflakes ****
Outlook: What has been a difficult season to predict a week ahead of time since late December isn’t about to get any easier. There are two storm systems moving through this week, one on Tuesday, the other about Friday. In each case, moisture may run into cold air banked against the mountains, at least at the start of precipitation. The second system, in particular, has a strong potential to produce significant wintry precipitation over a wide swath of the country, including, potentially, Southwest Virginia. But that could be ice rather than snow. There is a chance that either Roanoke or Blacksburg will cobble together at least an inch of sleet or snow (sleet counts as snow accumulation, officially), either collectively between the two systems, or in one, more likely Friday’s. But right now, it just looks like ice, a brief mix, or cold rain is more likely than substantial snow.
Looking back: Ouch. Two storm systems passed through this week, as expected. One took the snow north and west of Blacksburg and Roanoke on Wednesday. The other took it south and east on Saturday. On a week when I thought at least one of them would probably deliver snow for us, and thus produced a six-snowflake rating at each site, I take losses. My season records slips below .500 for Blacksburg, and my goal of going at least 10-5 at each site is now unattainable at one of them.
Current records: 7-4 for Roanoke; 5-6 for Blacksburg.
February 17, 2013 - 7:08 PM
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WOW!!!. snocat nailed it. A full page, unpaid add by the Roanoke Rag is unheard of. When and where will the signing be held? Nobody deserves it more than you buddy.
Funny thing is I haven’t seen this ad yet (worked on the paper last night, so already read a lot of the articles, not always fast to read it on Sunday). I’ll have to take a look.
Oh yes … the big “Will it snow?” insert ad. It’s run sometime before because my wife has it stuck on a fridge with a magnet. Very humbled to have a big ad like that.
Kevin, you MORE than deserve that ad. Your blog is one of the few things I truly look forward to everyday. Thanks for what you do!!
Big ditto from the Crazy Old Letter Carrier, Kevin. Congratulations.
Tomorrow represents a treasured memory for me. Date was Friday, Feb 18, 2000. I was an unassigned letter carrier then, and had to do an hour or more on 6 or 7 different routes. It was a horrible day, a downpour from the get-go, high of 39, with wind, too. And to top it off, another letter carrier overburdened me badly. ‘Nuf.
REMAINDER OF THIS IS NON-WEATHER, but you fellow dog-lovers will hopefully love it. I came home late that afternoon drenched, cold, and in possibly the worst mood I have ever been after delivering mail. Blondie-boy (our dog) was a joyful 14 months old then. Well, he hears me come in the door near our garage, comes ripping around the corner of our back hall eeking and squeaking with glee, ears flapping, and comes up on me with his front paws while his rear end is wigglin’ and his tail is doing a terrific imitation of a high-speed windshield wiper. My bad mood was gone in about a half of a second. I was roaring with laughter.
Back to weather. Take a look at today’s ensemble Outlook for the NAO, cold weather lovers. Consensus drop in the NAO to at least -1.1, possibly -1.5 or even more negative for the next 7 days. This could be a big chance ….
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Trouble is that the neg NAO may be poorly positioned for a huge cold in the eastern USA. but if those negative NAO predicted values verify, this would be the most negative swing in the NAO since …… dramatic music, please …. LATE OCTOBER
And look what else is already neg and going more negative! The AO!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml It sure seems very likely that somebody somewhere is going to get extremely cold and possibly snowy.
A cold day breeds a cold clear night. Down to 15 now. The skies are clear and the air is still. Our 1″ snow melted where the sun hit but the shady areas are still covered. It was very localized with many areas within a few miles not getting any significant snow amounts. The warm up comes tomorrow but just remember it is just the middle of February and March has not reared its ugly head. The winds here were fierce last night and I can only imagine what the winds will do in March. It would be nice to get one big snow. I have spent the winter sweeping much of our snow instead of shoveling.
Oh no DT just lost again! His 4th down play was this weekend and he just threw it out of bounds! Spring wins! Spring wins! DT should have concentrated on the Playbook instead of drawing up his own plays on the sideline. In the end, DT just talked to much trash! Team Winter needs a new quarterback!
In all seriousness this winter was probably a little less then last year. That is three putrid winters in a row! Oh well, hopefully winter shows up next year and we can at least get a 6″ plus snow! Wish we could get a few winters like back in the old timers day. For all these worthless winters mother nature owes me a cool rainy summer!!!
Clear and calm and frigid up here on Doppler Ridge as the sun comes up. It is 13 and thank goodness there is no wind.
Yes, Kevin, your ad was in the paper a couple weeks ago and I too have saved it. Maybe one day, you will be able to autograph it!
Couldn’t believe that we are under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 3 am Tuesday. I have gotten used to the cold, dry and windy scenario. Wow, now we get to add moisture to the mix. Let’s hope it is snow and not ice we end up with.
I got up this morning and saw a weather notification on my phone (I use the Weather Bug app – not for accuracy but mostly for radar when I’m out and about) – Winter Weather Advisory. NWS says snow accumulation of less than 1″. I don’t suppose there is any possibility of this giving us a surprise, right?
As Doug eludes to above, even if the AO, NAO & PNA may be in the favor for Snow Lovers, the overall pattern is not. The MJO has moved into very unfavorable territory to phase 4 then 5 which is condusive to a more Mid-western/Plains pattern for active winter weather. The threat for the end of the week for snow in the Mid-Atlantic is now for all intensive purposes gone. Yes, there will be a little ice/mix to rain but nothing more that would make it an full fledged ice storm or even snow event as the CAD/Wedge will be in place but will be weak and the warm air will overtake the wedge quickly.
Even worse are the event possibilities beyond next week have completely fallen apart. February 25-26 will be another rain with possible severe weather for the east and south.
After that…It looks like Phil was right after all. If you want snow, head to Nebraska and points north.
I’m not writing off winter just yet, but this is very discouraging. Remember that we are still in a “Neutral” ENSO period right now that is forecast to continue thru Spring.
The good news about this winter is the much needed rain has eroded the drought for much of the region and it appears that the South, Southern Plains and Midwest will see much more needed rain for the next 2-3 weeks.
Michael Hoback, thanks for your comment. You make 3 of us fellows (wd and I were the first 2 that I remember) over age 50 who are advising others to be careful about writing off winter weather now. 23 clear degrees here. For some reason I have no frost, even though I felt no wind when I got the newspaper.
I just looked at temps around the SW part of ROA valley, and it sure seems like we have an inversion layer going on. 26* on Lost Mountain. 23 or maybe 24 here now, I bet wd is at least in the mid-20s, while a Penn Forest and a Raleigh Court site were each 17* a few minutes ago. 19* at Cresthill, on the other side of 419 (and much lower than me), not too far from SW Plaza and the big Catholic church on 419.
Well, if you haven’t noticed, the National Weather Service in Blacksburg has put the counties from Roanoke and west in a winter weather advisory for Tuesday morning, with the potential of 1-2 inches of snow and sleet.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Very interesting since HPC has most of the region in a0 to 20 percent area of getting at least 1 inch of snow through 7 a.m. Tuesday, and 0 percent after that through 7 a.m. Wednesday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013021812f024.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013021812f048.gif
Will try to figure out what the local office is seeing that the national office isn’t.
Jared: There has been 20 days of snow cover and two 4+ snow events at my location (southern Roanoke County, 1400 feet) with over a foot total accumulation. This was far and away a snowier winter than last year where I live.
But that’s the way it has been this winter with localized situations. Winter took a sudden turn for the folks in Appomattox County this past weekend!
Well, really it’s quite elementary: The NAM and GFS both quickly cool the atmosphere below freezing from a mile down tonight with onset of precipitation, and pretty much keep it there till it passes by mid to late morning.
Now I’m wondering less why local weather service office has a chance of significant snow/sleet than I am why national office has so little chance.
And I’m also feeling another snow meter bust coming on.
Kevin, I am liking the new format so far. The comment numbers show up, and a little easier to read font.
As for winter being over, I understand our chances are dwindling, but the two significant snows we got in SW Roanoke county were ones that really suprised most. I may be suffering from selective memory, but it seems like that is often the case for us, the best snows are those not really expected. So, there not being any chances showing up on the forecasts does not rule out a decent snow for us.
Today is not Washington’s birthday. ( Feb 22.) today is pres. day celebrating Lincoln (Feb 12) and Washington’s Presidency
test
Going back to comment #17- WWA for Roanoke for 1-2″ of snow, but on the snowfall map on the local events page they show most of Roanoke at a half inch or less. Seems they are a bit conflicted too. Your 4 snowflake snow meter gives snow lovers reason to hope this week.
Tried work pc..tried phone…still no luck posting…let’s try again.
Low of 14.8 at 512am but now up to 36.2 in Goodview. As for our winter…between 1 and 1.5 inches of snow/sleet/mush.
Kevin, is the end of the week storm basically on a West to East track?
We are headed up to Snowshoe this weekend and it looks like we are going to be on the warm side of the storm. The same thing happened a couple weeks ago when Roanoke was locked in the cold air wedge and picked up a couple inches and Snowshoe had mainly rain until the front pushed through. After the front swung through we had a couple inches of upslope snow but we missed out on the initial push of moisture. (This was the storm that dumped 1-2+ feet of snow in the NE)
Thanks
Kevin think any winter weather in this area in the morning or just plain rain?
John you seem to be going to Snowshoe every weekend that I am not
We went this past weekend. Had warm conditions (almost 40 when expected high was 29) on Friday, then snow by afternoon and overnight. Received about 3 inches…high of 19 on Saturday.
Our last trip up will be first of March. Hope the weather works out for you as it has for us.
BULLETIN! A new 50-50 low has magically appeared on today’s polar view map. It even looks a bit stronger than the one of last Wednesday or so. Kevin, would you post the link to Allen Huffman’s map? The 50-50 low is almost perfectly positioned …. right now. And the green “thumb” of warmish air now extends all the way to the eastern shore of Iceland. But Quags has explained that for other reasons a big winter storm is unlikely. But the polar view map sure looks promising in those two ways.
Kevin, if you had an “ice meter” for this week, how many ice pellets would you give it for either of these systems to give Roanoke or Blacksburg 0.10 of ice?
Sorry about the snow meter last week, KM. Bruce brought you (and me) down.
Hate the new blog. Very hard to read!! Know it is not yiour fault Kevin.
Did the blog change its look or was it the FireFox browser update that just happened on my machine? Nice clean look.
Couldn’t get the comment area to work earlier, so here’s my second attempt!
460 in Bonsack area has been pre-treated…
The afternoon forecast for us is now snow and sleet after 3 am. Had been an all rain forecast prior to that. No WWA for us. We will see. But hasn’t today been beautiful Fed the livestock this afternoon and then went for a 2 mile walk. This is my favorite weather to walk. My least favorite is 90 and humidity. I prefer 20 and wind to 90.
Good, keep that heavy rain down in Georgia and S. Carolina where they need to hammer the drought.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png
Looks like someone came in and moved around some furniture on the blog and gave it a new coat of paint today while I was away. Already various opinions. I don’t like how the text isn’t wrapping around my graphics. May have to play with that til I figure it out.
I’ll be on with a new post in the next hour or two. General idea tonight is quick-hitting period of snow/sleet mix toward morning gradually going over to rain — maybe not happening fast enough before precipitation moves out. Not a ton of moisture, but arriving at coldest point of 24-hour cycle, and with ample cold, dry air for evaporational cooling but not so much as to totally dry it out. Weather service describes it as a “nuisance” event. Seems appropriate, especially with its morning rush timing.
Like the new blog look. Glad that the button to submit my comment is back so I can actually comment! Hope your snow meter does bust again, Kevin… sorry!!
Ice meter , Flutie: Would go low for Roanoke/Blacksburg. Situation in morning now likely lends itself to sleet/snow mix going over to rain, not much freezing rain. Later in the week, doubt we would get to .10 inch of ice.
John: Late week system is taking SW to NE track into Ohio Valley and/or Great Lakes. Snowshoe probably gets some front end snow, then ice/rain. Cold air looks stubborn to rebuild behind storm, so maybe not as quick a change to backside snow as typical. But it’s a fluid situation.
.
Kevin of Turkeycock_ — I think you’re going to be on the edge where sleet/snow will occur and just rain. You probably see some, though, especially with your slightly higher elevation
I will remind everyone there is a feedback tab at the right you can click to offer feedback about the redesign to someone who has more of a say in it and hand in it than I do.
Hehe. I have tried to use the feedback tab to scroll the page more than once today.
KM the new layout looks good. I hope I get to see some flakes here in Rocky Mount tomorrow. I plan on staying up to see how it unfolds; thankfully I’m off.
Told the talking heads what I thought about it. Don’t figger it will even be read.
Woohoo, you got a makeover Kevin!! I like it myself. The font is larger and easier to read and I like how the commenter’s name is first in their post – makes it easier to tell who is saying what.
Thanks Kevin. See what you can do about making the low go up the coast rather than the Ohio Valley. Appreciate it.
The site looks good. I guess the whole roanoke.com is getting a new coat of paint.
Roads on VT campus have been brined so guess they are taking things seriously.
Where is the bullseye if there is one from this weather maker approaching now?
Daughter just called on her way home to Callaway and said they were brining 220 . Buddy said they were brining 24 also. Ain’t been on 221 or 419 since mornin so don’t know whether they’ve hit them or not.
I drove to Smith Mountain Lake today (Burnt Chimney, Westlake area) and they brined the road all the way to the top of Windy Gap Mountain at the Roanoke/Franklin county line. Stopped right where the winter weather advisory does!
Bullseye for this system: Upper Peninsula of Michigan into Canada.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
Locally, hard to distinguish one, since it will be a broad flow of light moisture.
Posting new soon.
That’s SOP. County line is the responsibilty of each county. Same pot but a different budget.
They have brined 460 from Salem toward C’burg. No brine on North Fork. I guess it is best to be prepared and have nothing happen than to not be prepared and get caught off guard.
Kevin, looking at regional radar, this system hasn’t gotten to Nashville yet. Will allow more time for clear skys and ground cooling I’d think. And unless this thing is screaming, it won’t get here by 3 AM.
Hope it waits til daylight so I can watch it come across the mountain. Despise a snow that starts after dark and ends before daylight.