Spotty ice as murky winter rolls on
The murky winter of 2012-13 rolls on. Temperatures along some of the Blue Ridge and in some areas north of Roanoke in the Alleghany Highlands and southern Shenandoah Valley did not get above freezing today. Additional light rain or drizzle developing overnight as a low tracks northeastward to our south (not a bad path for a snow-making storm, were it not for the low over the Great Lakes sweeping in warm air aloft) may add a little bit to the ice in some of those places that didn’t get above freezing, especially at higher elevations. That’s why the National Weather Service continued/re-issued the winter weather advisory for the counties north of Roanoke and then along the Blue Ridge from Roanoke and Blacksburg southward. Roanoke city and probably even most of the New River Valley will probably stay above freezing overnight and Saturday morning.
The stubborn wedge may not fully break on Saturday – highs could struggle to reach into the 40s – but should by Sunday, as westerly winds behind a cold front trigger downslope warming (ironically) for a day with lots of highs in the 50s before somewhat colder weather returns early next week. The 12Z European model chart for Tuesday morning may look mighty familiar, with a low tracking well to our west and a dribble of colder air (the blue colors) slipping into western Virginia. This is a third system similar to last Tuesday’s and Friday morning’s that could spread some moisture over a cold-air wedge late Monday night and early Tuesday, and thereby create some possible snow or ice at the start of the precipitation. In this case, it appears the flow of warmth and moisture from the low will be too overwhelming, and the retreating cold high too ineffectual, for the cold to hold long, and this may even turn into a sizeable well-above-freezing rain situation.
The Tuesday storm is the caboose on the train of these lows that have tracked southwest to northeast from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. This low will morph into a slow-moving upper-low over the eastern Great Lakes or southeast Canada that circulates cold air, relative to normal, through the southern and eastern U.S. High pressure building westward across the north Atlantic into eastern Canada will trap it there, and high pressure building in the western U.S. will also help pump in a cold period to start March in the southern and eastern U.S. A few disturbances squirting across the South will have to be monitored for winter weather potential, but models have very different ideas on exactly how the big features line up and what they do to these systems. For now, I’m doubting the big storm potential at least through March 3 in our region, as it appears the trough may be centered too far east and the low near the Great Lakes too far south and west to guide systems in the right manner to make that happen. But some smaller snow/ice situations are quite possible. And of course, things can change, either direction.
February 22, 2013 - 4:38 PM
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We are still sitting around 50. Marion/Wytheville reporting station at 40 and you folks still in the 30′s. Abingdon and Bristol still reporting 57. Wedge is alive and well. Our NWS forecast for the afternoon is predicting rain and snow from Tuesday Night into Friday. Sounds messy doesn’t it. Glad I have the wood shed at least 1/2 full again. My afternoon also included a walk for me and my wife on the Salt Trail. The old railbed from Glade Spring to Saltville. We managed to get in 2 and 1/2 mile on the trail. Glad I took today off. Morning started out with a check-up for Abbie at the vet. That was a real treat. She is type A like me and gets real upset over visiting the vet.
Chris Fisher of the NWS-Blacksburg noted on Twitter today that Kee Field Airport in Wyoming County, WVa, was at 60 degrees this afternoon at the same time Beckley, a county away, was at 38.
Thanks to this blog and Virginia’s 511 and NC’s TIMS websites, I was able to plan my trip from NC to SWVA to come in between storms.
On I77, it was pretty white at the top of the mountain at Fancy Gap with both snow and ice. The trees looked quite frosted. Something about the way the trees looked made me wonder if the fog earlier had frozen.
We had a little snow/sleet in Greensboro NC this morning.
Kevin,,,If its that bad when you go to the vet
Is it because they use the longer needles there on you?
The R/T medical cant be in that plan…can they?
You’ve lost me, Joe.
Michael Hoback, is Abbie a dog? One way for her to become less antsy about visiting the veterinarian is to have the employees there give her dog treats. Blondie LOVED the vet we used. Of course, he was so lovable that they used to play with him when we had to leave him there for hours or overnight. Which we didn’t mind, JUST SO LONG AS THEY GAVE HIM BACK TO US! Speaking of the wedge. Marion and Bluefield were the two cities with the warmest low temperatures for tomorrow morning. According to “7,” Marion will be 47 and Bluefield will be 44. I wish we had a regular blogger in the Hot Springs area. Their low will be 23. I wonder if that area got quite a bit of ice or sleet, or whether they were mostly spared from the precip.
3 comments from last night’s thread stuck out in my mind as being particularly good ones about what was going to happen today. Sorry, Kevin, but I meant comments by folks other than the Weather Wizard, that is.
1. At 6:11 PM, ice storm lover said, “I honestly don’t understand the call for significant icing.” At least for the Roanoke valley, that was very accurate.
2. Brandon in comment 51: “But I do think Roanoke City proper will be spared.” It was. I saw ZERO precip once I “hit the street” at 8:55.
3. joe in comment 93: “but I don’t think ice on paved surfaces at ROA will be much of an issue.” It wasn’t an issue at all, not even near my house with 1400 feet elevation in the early morning. Road surfaces were 100% wet then, later on were dry for the entire delivery day.
so who busted? The TWC hourly forecast for Roanoke, showing 100% and 90% chance of precip at 7 and 8 AM, and still up to 40-50% right through noon. They were so good on the Tuesday event, and pretty bad for this one. Another entity? Channel 13. They also nailed the Tuesday event, but they predicted a daytime high of 32 for ROA. I don’t know what the actual high was, but I know that it reached at least 37 in ROA this afternoon.
It was obvious the moisture was drying up on this storm as it moved northeast. But, man, it really went in a hurry about 3-4 a.m. At 2:30, radar looked not too dissimilar from Feb. 7-8 when we ended up with 3-5 inches of snow in the valley. I was concerned for a bit about a very high bust on the snow end, with hours of moderate-heavy snow moving northeastward. But within 30-45 minutes after that, a sharp western side formed on the precipitation area, which narrowed, weakened and shoved eastward. A dry punch of air cut the system almost in two, as we often see, between the stronger dynamics well north and the thicker moisture in the Carolinas. The GFS was good with the precipitation totals, sticking on the light side. Most forecast problems were not due to the moisture output of the storm, but allocating how much of that very minimal moisture would go to what precipitation type.
Hey, Kevin, condolences about Blacksburg and the snow meter. I thought that you could finally celebrate your first double-win week in about a month. How many more weeks do you do the snow meter? Is this coming week the final one?
Meanwhile, ABC News is showing real ice problems in Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio. That was the bad news. The good news is that many of those states got some desperately needed moisture, and it is the kind that usually seeps into the ground over time, too.
Been a nasty day here, 31º and drizzle now. I’m ready for spring but its going to be a while it looks like. At least based on my interpretation of the GFS. yuck
3 more weeks on the snow meter, Doug. Just enough time to sweep them and pull Blacksburg record above .500 (now 5-7). Also enough time to go 11-4 at Roanoke, beating my 10-5 goal.
Next week is going to be another hard one with fuzzy late-week potential, again.
Down to 30 at supper time with a light freezing drizzle. I am calling it “frizzle”.
Just a pun Kevin…
literally received…”She is type A like me and gets real upset over visiting the vet.”
The shots must hurt.
Oh you were referring to Michael Hoback’s comment about taking his pet to the vet.
Cripes!!! Talk about who-s tired!!!
I thought that was you..!
I never thought of you as particularly type A..
But needles and temps 31-34F can do funny
things to people!!
I think Im not used to this new layout yet..
At least Ill blame it on that.
Hey Kevin does any of the upcoming weather events in the next week or is it too early to sa
I meant any chance of snow in my area in the next week or to early to tell
Kevin, your words, murky and fuzzy, are so appropriate. I’d add unpredictable, unexpected, and under-performing; all accurately describe the 2012-13 winter, at least here in Blacksburg. I think, though, if you add all those 1″ here, 3″ there, snowfalls, we’ve had a moderately snowy winter, and certainly one of the windiest I can remember in my ten years here. We’re not done yet. Beware the Ides of March. The month, it’s always strange, weatherwise, in the South and the Mid-Atlantic.
Kevin: I discuss it above.
VZBBG: Blacksburg is up to 17.4 inches for the season, counting the 0.6 with Superstorm Sandy in October. 25.4 is considered normal. Generally, I would consider anything from 20-30 inches a “normal” winter of snowfall for Blacksburg. So that’s getting pretty close.
Roanoke is at 9.3 inches, about half of the 18.5 norm. One big snow or a couple of medium ones would get pretty close to normal.
My gosh, if there were no more snow for either city, I would have hit both of them for snow totals, I think. But I went with 12-12-12 as the first snow date for both, and that blew me out of the park. Plus we will get more, I feel sure. Especially the home town of the Hokies. (If I am wrong, KM, about my seasonal totals, please correct me via e-mail only). Next winter I will pick a late date, and that will probably be the winter that it happens in late November.
I haven’t really checked on the snowfall entries yet, so don’t have an idea who picked what or who’s close. Probably will do that in the next couple of weeks.
Here are today’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, courtesy of the CPC. These will be the last ones before Monday afternoon that will have been influenced by humans. On the 6-10, we are very likely (60%!) to be colder than normal, which is exactly what Kevin has been saying for a couple of days now. Plus the oscillations have been pointing to it. The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php This covers the Feb 28 – March 4th period.
The 8-14 day shows much the same thing, with the area we are in being 50% likely to be colder than normal. This outlook covers the March 2-8 period. The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
On both outlooks SW Virginia is in the white, “neutral” area for precip, although the drier than normal area is very close to our WSW, and in fact might include our Washington County friends Michael Hoback and Eva.
He predicts it, and very often it happens very close to what he said. I am talking about Kevin and the map of the polar view. I just looked at today’s map, and without a doubt now the core of the biggest, coldest vortex is over northern Russia. Some green air climbing up over us and into most of Ontario (all the way to the southern edge of Hudson Bay) and most of Quebec. No 50-50 low right now. A little circle of green air just east of Iceland.
0Z NAM has come in with a really aggressive snow to ice to rain scenario for late Monday/early Tuesday.
Unbelievable that we might replay the same basic setup for the third time in a week. Whatever precip ends up falling, the early week storm will probably be the most moist of the three.
Since the blog is very quiet right now, I will say the following. I just found what I predicted for this season. Total snowfall for ROA: 12 inches. For Hokieburg: 21 inches. Boy, those are looking awfully good right now. How did that happen? But that first date pick killed my chances.
Kevin, you need help with the snow meter. Fellow bloggers, please come on here either tonight or tomorrow with your advice for him for this coming week. Me give him advice on this? No way. I have a one-prediction-winning streak that I plan to sit on for a while.
It stayed pretty cold in Hokieburg today and a good bit of the wintry snack mix that fell is still on the ground. 32 at my house.
Kevin…
I was just looking at the same scenario,,,
looks like its nearly a repeat situation.
Coming out of Kansas on late Mon -Tue..
Some psbl snow along the Va -WVa line
Wed evening..with interspersed rain to west
and east..Snow may flirt in much of western Va
for several days…GFS shows area stalling out
to a large degree…this could make for a more
interesting scenario than last nights…especially
for the folks Roanoke and west if the models
hold up…this slow/stalled signature is eye catching.
Doug, Abbie is my dog and she is fairly nervous as a general rule. She whines the whole time she is riding in a vehicle and today it was warm enough here for the window to be down far enough for her head. That eases her stress if she can ride with the wind in her face. She is my faithful friend when I feed the livestock but this week she got kicked by a horse. Did not do any permanent damage but made her sore. By the way, she has not been near the horses since. On a weather note, down to 40 here with lite cloud cover. Doubt we will see rain tonight but I may be surprised. Went to 57 at Bristol today and Johnson City is predicting 60 there tomorrow. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Kevin,
Are any other models trending toward the 0z NAM or picking up on a colder solution? Or is the NAM the outlier (again)?
It’s almost too early to really give the NAM too much credence. GFS running now. Will take a look when I get a chance.
Too..there are a couple more systems to watch after
first week of March as Kevin says…
The first is poised over the Southern Bering area
in the Southern Allutians…several days behind
the one discussed…but operating generally along
the same latitudes.
The other dropping out of Siberia still north of the Arctic
Circle..but looks likely to follow closely the one now
in the Allutians.
Down to 30º here now with fog and drizzle. Don’t think its freezing on the roads but it seems to be on the pine trees.
GFS is not quite as cold on Monday night/Tuesday but would have some mix to start before going over to rain.
Any one of these shortwaves moving out of the Pacific that Joe mentions can be the next great 1/10 inch of sleety muck … or the next historic blizzard. Just like baseball you’ve gotta watch each pitch individually. A few going outside or getting fouled off doesn’t mean the next one won’t fly out of the park. Or we might just ground out winter and move on to spring.
Michael, Abbie has still been eating OK, hasn’t she? Reason I ask is that my sister lost her 6-year-old dog to internal bleeding 33 years ago. They only found out two days later, when it was much too late (vet said that it wouldn’t have made any diff if they had brought her in immediately), that she had been hit by a car. Tammy (the dog) lived on their farm property, where there was hardly any traffic, but she had an ultimately fatal habit of chasing cars. I was heartbroken.
I see some of what Joe’s talking about in comment 29 too. GFS brings a wave through Wed-Thurs with mostly light snow. I think that will go on into building a larger storm offshore or for the Northeast.
Interesting weather period ahead. I’m NOT saying it’s going to come a sizeable snowstorm here, though it might at some point. But I can tell right now I will be plenty busy next week. Will get some rest this weekend.
The overnight and early morning rain/ freezing drizzle looks to be mostly confined to areas east of the BURP. Saw that on both WDBJ and WSET.
Easterly upslope flow would maximize lift and cooling, so that makes sense.
Speaking of upslope … looking ahead, there may be days and days of mountain upslope snow squalls on northwest winds starting late next week into the following week, as the upper low gets stalled in SE Canada and circulates northwest winds. Don’t think the Appalachian ski resorts are gonna run out of snow anytime soon.
32.5 foggy, slightly damp degrees here. Driveway AND mailbox have no ice, driveway is just a tiny bit damp. Judging from radar, it looks like no more rain for Roanoke valley, and probably for most areas NW of the BURP (BlUe Ridge Parkway). Have a great Saturday, everyone. I am off to get donuts and then to work.
Did see 29 last night but now this morning it is 31. Had some rain overnight because I heard it running in the gutters. But this morning there is a patchy coating of ice on our steps. Still have the dreary low lying clouds/fog. No wind!
Kevin, with all of the chances for potential snow coming up, I would say one of those has the chance for being at least a 2-4 inch snow, but which one, not sure. We have been known to have get “some” snow in March. Good Luck with your upcoming predictions.
Today and Sunday will be good days to take sort of a weather rest, so I won’t be on here much.
I think the warm air advection will be overwhelming Monday night/Tuesday and will limit wintry precipitation to just a little at the front end. Beyond that, it will just be a matter of tracking disturbances moving around the polar trough.
Have a good weekend. I may post something brief this evening.
In my opinion nobody can really tell if there is going to be snow days in advance. Being a meteorologist is probably the only job you can have and be less than 50% half of the time.
Very unoriginal Taylor Squires. And it’s also been prove statistically accurate. Modern meteorology is in the 70-80 percent range within 48 hours.