Next clipper arrives late Monday, early Tuesday
Clipper No. 3 in the series (though you could have called the Saturday-Sunday system a series of about 4 different clipper-like disturbances) dives our way late Monday into Tuesday. There are many complications that will lead to a trickier forecast. First off, the Arctic air mass is starting to moderate, so that the critical freezing line at the surface and up to a mile high will wander northward into or very near our region. Secondly, the main center of the next clipper appears likely to move north of our region, which means we could be on the “warm” side of the system, enhancing the pull of slightly milder air northward. Thirdly, there may be a low near the Gulf Coast 
that becomes at least partly involved and supplies a bit more moisture. Most forecast models do not show the northern and southern lows teaming up very effectively, so it’s possible this low stays to the south and is not a major player (other than perhaps consolidating the moisture flow to the south and drying up the air in between the two lows.) In all of that, it appears unlikely, as of late Sunday, that we are headed to a widespread snowfall, even a light one, late Monday and early Tuesday. But there could be a light mix of precipitation, with the best chance of snow north and west of Roanoke. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center focuses the core likelihood of 1+ inch of snow in West Virginia (no surprise) with high chances west of Interstate 77 in Virginia, and lesser chances edging eastward into the western New River Valley. There will likely be some more upslope snowfall — northwest winds squeezing out moisture crossing the mountains — once this storm system passes.
We are heading for a steadily milder pattern through the week as highs push back into the 40s and 50s rather than recent 20s and 30s. A storm system late in the week will spread moisture again over our area by Friday and Saturday. From this distance, it looks to be a mostly rain situation, but ice/snow on the front end with lingering or wedged cold air and some upslope snow showers on the back end with colder air on the back side of the storm are at least possible. It appears we may be headed for another rainy storm in the days before Valentine’s Day. Long-range guidance has been conflicting on whether the mid to latter part of February turns warm or cold, but I’ll just pitch in that rumors of winter’s soon demise have been greatly exaggerated.
************
Snow meter
2/4-2/10
Chance of 1 inch of snow, rated from 0 to 10 snowflakes.
Roanoke: *** 3 snowflakes out of 10
Blacksburg: ***** 5 snowflakes out of 10
Outlook: Another Alberta clipper – a fast southeast-moving low-pressure system — like the ones that affected our area early Friday and again late Saturday into Sunday is headed down for late Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will be more marginal for frozen precipitation with it than the previous clippers, but it may connect with a southern low and tap a bit more moisture. Given marginal temperatures and the typical elevation/topography issues, I don’t expect Roanoke to get an inch of snow out of this. Blacksburg, again, could much more easily squeeze out an inch, though it’s a close call. I’m going with an even-odds chance for Blacksburg and two flakes less for Roanoke. There is a late-week storm that looks to be much milder than the first one. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for this to encounter a little cold air on its front side or to swing some cold air behind Friday or Saturday. It doesn’t change my thinking on the probabilities for the week too much, though.
Looking back: I didn’t catch onto the parade of Alberta clippers until after the snow meter had published. If I had, I would have gone much higher than three snowflakes for Blacksburg. Instead, 2.9 inches of snow fell there Friday through Sunday, which busted the snow meter (more than an inch of snow with less than 5 snowflakes) and gives me a loss. Roanoke only got 0.4 inch, officially, so I get a win for going three snowflakes and less than an inch falling.
Current records: 7-2 for Roanoke, 5-4 for Blacksburg.
February 4, 2013 - 12:05 AM
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Blacksburg is making things a lot tougher for your snow meter in recent weeks. I am glad that you went to 5 snowflakes for Hokieburg this week, and good luck. Is the Monday night/wee hours of Tuesday the only decent threat for Blacksburg this week? If so, …..
Hey, Jared, your 3 inches IS close to RRA’s 5.7 for the season so far, but the big reason for that is the fact that RRA had one of the smallest totals in the Roanoke Valley during the Jan 17th snowfall. wd got 6.5, after talking with Kevin I am pretty sure that I really had 5.5, Forest Blurker got at least 5, and a fellow on Brambleton Avenue had 5.25 or so. RRA got less than 4. I think Kevin’s house in South Roanoke got about the same as me.
Anyway, I hope that you get more. I agree with Kevin, not Larry Cosgrove (about the early end to winter). That polar vortex is much too chummy to declare winter over here. And it is still a pretty strong vortex, too. If it drops 200 miles south and causes another big trough in the eastern USA, we will have cold air galore again.
Hey, Kelly Hoge, how much snow have you had lately in Burke’s Garden?
What does say when you leave for work in the morning and it’s 27 degrees and you wonder if a coat is worth the hassle. Maybe a little warm up will be nice, but i’ve adjusted to the cold at this point.
I’ve got my eye on late month snow just because so many of the big ones in my memory were late February and March. My snow tires arn’t looking to good either.
Kevin,
I don’t know if this has been covered yet, but when you mentioned last week that we set January precipitation records, it seemed that the rest of the top 5 occurred during an El Nino….that’s one thing that I haven’t heard mentioned this year is El Nino/La Nina…is the Pacific neutral right now, or is more of a mild El Nino?
Central Pacific is ENSO-neutral, Nate .. in fact, 3 of 4 regions are slightly cooler tha normal.
We talked a lot about whether there would be El Nino or not in the summer and fall but kinda forgot about it once it was became obvious it was going to be neutral, diverting from forecasts.
Doug, I would say it’s the late-week timing and the relative weakness of these winter weather events that has caused me the most trouble on the snow meter. This week it’s another marginal event but at least it’s early in the week.
Also some chance Blacksburg gets a fraction of an inch tomorrow and another fraction of an inch on the front or back end of the late-week system, adding up to an inch or more total.
Hey kevin the weather channel says nothing bout any precip here today and tonight is that pretty much correct?
A little off topic but Kevin do you think as we begin to turn into spring that we could very well see more in the way of “freak storms.” It seems since the derecho, every season we have had some kind of freak storm to deal with – Superstorm Sandy, this last windstorm/rainstorm that tested NWS to put out Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for storms that had no thunder or lightning. I seen a spring forecast somewhere that suggests more tornadic like weather in the Tennessee Valley. That might spell trouble for us although we do have the mountains to slightly help.
Safety Tim at #3 re: coat comment – I hear ya! Growing up in Houston, we had a nylon windbreaker and a coat. The coat we wore perhaps 2 or 3 times a year (if we were lucky) in ‘winter’ there so you had the same coat for years and years. My Chicago grandmother would talk about getting a new ‘spring coat’ and I couldn’t imagine why you would need more than one coat, and especially one for spring….until I lived up there! After living in this area for 30 years, I have a rack full of coats and jackets of every weight and type, plus boots, scarves, and gloves. Perhaps from growing up in that tropical climate, I still don’t like to wear a jacket and will pinch hit with scarf and gloves as long as I can. Hats are a last resort for me – I’ll reluctantly wear one if it the temps drop below 20 and it’s windy. Taking weather the way it comes here – that’s all we can do.
Kevin, where you are, it will be harder to get moisture from the next system, but I wouldn’t say it’s zero precent. 20-30 percent would be more in line.
Mike N: “Freak” storms being freakish, their existence can’t be predicted too far in advance. We’ve had plenty of stretches of fairly “dull” weather in recent years too. I do think February offers plenty of opportunity for volatile weather, not just locally, but nationally, as this fight between a strong jet flow out of the Pacific and Arctic air masses trying to sink southward looks to continue. Beyond that, would just be a guess. I understand the rationale behind tornado season being shifted eastward from the central part of the “Alley” — extreme drought in the central U.S. sometimes does that. But whether it actually happens that way, only time will tell.
5 or 6 miles from the Henry County Franklin County lin
Kevin, refering to yesterdays comments about Whitetop Mtn. Thinking about driving up there one day this week. Do you think there will still be plenty of snow up there throughout the week? would like to take some pictures.
Thanks
My sister is on her 3rd day out of school in Smyth county. Crazy weather! Thursday out for flooding. Friday and today out for snow. I’d like to see some snow materialize tonight for Roanoke, but I have a feeling we’ll be lucky to see flurries here tonight.
Don’t think that snow will go anywhere too fast, John. May be a little more up there tonight, and coming warmup looks gradual rather than sharp.
Somewhat suprisingly, in a strong warm air advection situation, the 4,000-foot ridges down there can feel the warmth before we do up here. I remember one time when we had wintry mix and below-freezing temperatures in Roanoke when a scout leader told me later about the warm winds and 50s they caped in on Mount Rogers.
Kevin…
I am a TWLS…do you think there will be any more upcoming “big snow” events for our region???? Still holding out for a BIG’EN!
Thanks Kevin. Appreciate it! I figured the snow would hang around awhile.
kl: I can’t say for certain whether there will be any more snow events let alone a “big snow”. I do think there will be some more windows where a decent-sized snow will be possible if the setup is right, so I don’t think we’re done with snow chances. If I absolutely had to make a call, I would say we have at least 1 more widespread 2+ inch event left in this winter for Southwest Virginia. But that’s only a somewhat educated guess.
Thank you
Sounds great to me!
Kevin, looking at this radar http://www.weather.gov/Radar, it appears that we have some substantial moisture moving our way. What are your thoughts on that reaching Roanoke?
Your snow meter is teaching us something beyond the educated guesses about snow. It is demonstrating vividly that with today’s best technology, our living, pulsating atmosphere remains unpredictable more than about 3 days out. The “end of the week” catches us frequently.
The Clippers brought a little bit of snow, 2.3″ total…bringing our winter total up to 13.4″ so far. I think we (the NRV) will see 1 more storm in the 2-6″ range, 1 in the up to 2″ range, and then a couple more bouts of snow showers that lead to some light accumulations. Winter’s not over yet, but I’m thinking long-term patterns of cold are going to be hard to come by. But hopefully, with the warmer pattern we’ll keep getting beneficial moisture to fall on drought-ridden areas of the country that desperately need it.
Speaking of the polar vortex, the strongest polar vortex (there are 3 total right now) by far is parked right over Hudson’s Bay today, and seems to be even a bit stronger than yesterday’s. Wanna guess which gigantic nation does NOT have one? That’s right, Russia. Including Siberia, except perhaps for a relatively small piece way east, near Mongolia. That one seems to be centered in the China/Korea area.
The 3rd vortex is very weak and is centered just east of Iceland. KM, is the position of that 3rd vortex preventing the NAO from becoming negative?
Here is an attempt to link to Allen Huffman’s polar view (12zeuro500mb etc.):
http://www.raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif
Kevin, I would appreciate it if you could post a link that works assuming mine does not …..
Hey doesn’t the euro model show us having a big storm Friday an sat? Looks like lots of moisture but is it snow?
Kris: There’s no “big storm” on any model Friday and Saturday. And I mention a couple of times above it being milder and, probably, mostly rain. There does look to be a big-looking storm system early next week, but it is very likely to be all rain — maybe not such good news now that we’ve gone from drought to deluge so quickly.
Lex: Generally I would say you’re right, but I would also say that beyond Day 3 the snow meter is already nothing but an educated guess. It’s hard to go with a high probability on an iffy system 5 days out that could be 4+ inches or could be all rain or could be a total miss to the south. (thinking about Jan. 17 here, not anything this week). Next winter, I might issue 2 of these week, one on Monday and one about Thursday, for the next 3-4 days. The primary purpose is to discuss snow potential and probabilities. My “win-loss” record is kind of a fun tracking thing on the side.
The CPC {= Climate Prediction Center} has updated its monthly figures for January 2013. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) had an overall monthly figure of +0.35 for 1-13, its highest monthly number since it was +0.47 for April. And it was also a bit + for 12-12, +0.17.
Couple of notes: Kevin warned that a cooler than normal November (it was 3.2 degrees cooler than normal in Roanoke, and 3.9 degrees cooler in Blacksburg) might spell trouble for snow lovers here in SW Virginia. It has turned out so far that he was very correct, that this warning sign yet again was a better predictor FOR OUR REGION to date than the abnormally high Siberian snowfall in October. And it was an even better predictor for temps …. both cities were way above normal for both December and January.
And an at times irritating letter carrier advised that the string of negative NAO months that began in May 2012 was unlikely to last through the winter, although it was possible. More in separate comment.
Doug: Your link worked fine. What I see in that is high pressure building on the West Coast (the yellow/green colors bowing northward), the polar vortex in prime position over Hudson Bay and just a hint of high pressure building south of Greenland, closer to Newfoundland (the indentation of green and lighter blue colors). So with that you have PNA+, cold centered over central/eastern Canada, and perhaps some degree of blocking starting to form in the North Atlantic. Looks like a moderately cold pattern. Of course, the model may not be fully reading everything, or be outright wrong, but this guidance does indicate the possibility of cold rebuilding for the central/eastern U.S. near Valentine’s Day.
Using the November variance as a predictor (the opposite way) of what winter temps will be is not completely assured. General guideline is that whatever November is like, if it is strongly positive or strongly negative, the winter temps in SW Virginia will be the opposite. It was very true for 2009-10, with a very warm November 2009 leading into a very cold and very snowy winter. And it was also very true so far for the past 3 months. But November 2010 was normal and the winter was extremely cold into early February, and November 2011 was warm, but so was last winter.
LMAO, DT says now if it hasnt gotten cold by the middle of February that winter is probably over and you can bring on a warm spring! UHHHH, outside of one week this winter has been pretty mild, at least here in Greene county. Ok, 3 winters in a row with hardly any snow to speak of and the last 2 have been ridiculously warm. So is next year going to be ridiculous once again or will we finally have a legit winter? Stayed tuned until next December to find out. Winters have become laughable over the last 10-15 years to where you almost cant call it winter anymore except for 09-10. Oh well, any Long Range Forecasts for next winter up yet? The weather folks have been spot on with them as of late. Sorry about my rambling, but I am sick of winters with no winter weather!
Nurse snow: Radar does show pretty decent connection from north to south with the moisture. Most guidance shifts the bulk of this just to our north and west overnight and early Tuesday. Will be a matter of tracking it via radar and short range models now.
Kevin mentioned that the Pacific waters have cooled off radically since late summer and early autumn. I just looked at today’s weekly ENSO report, and was he ever correct. The temps in the 3.4 ENSO measurement area of the Eastern Pacific have been negative since early December, and from reading the graph on slide 5, they fell all the way to 0.8 degrees cooler than neutral in mid-January. If that kept up for 5 months, it would be a weak La Nina. It recovered to something like -0.1 or -0.2 in late January, but has fallen again to -0.5 now. These 3.4 levels had not been negative since last winter or maybe early spring before December. But the outlook — and it is consensus — is for them to remain near neutral for just about all of 2013. But that could change quickly.
I will try to remember to check the IRI spaghetti graph in about 20 days to see if that outlook has changed at all. There has not been an official El Nino since the winter of 2009-10. I don’t know if the close call of last summer and early autumn will delay the next one for 2+ years or not.
I was beginning to wonder if the CPC folks were late with the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks because they were hung over from the Super Bowl celebration. After all, they are located in Camp Springs, MD, not all that far from “Bal-mer.”
Here are the links. Big blowtorch on the 6-10 day (OK, KM, I know …. all the graphs reflect is the %age likelihood that a region will be warmer/cooler than normal, not the extent …) for the East, and a wet outlook, too. YAY! And still a 33% or 40% chance of being warm (they think … I am skeptical) on the 8-14 day, and again wet/snowy.
Linktime: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php AND http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Looks like Kelly Hoge might be getting some snow or at least some flurries in Burke’s Garden (in eastern Tazewell County) now.
Doug: In all fairness, I remember in the past discussing how it is often the case that a cold, wintry pattern in October and/or November often cycles out by winter itself. But I don’t remember applying that to this specific winter. I used a weak/almost El Nino historical basis in pointing to somewhat above-normal snowfall for this winter in particular. So barring a late barrage of snow, I don’t think I can claim any great accuracy about this winter, other than a general idea that the second half of winter would be more wintry than the first half.
Jared: There was no consensus among long-range forecasts that this winter would be especially cold and/or snowy. Some called for this, others didn’t. National Weather Service long-range forecasts for winter went right down the middle for our region, calling for basically normal.
The national radar right now is quite impressive with moisture streaming north from the Gulf and thunderstorms in Louisiana. Also, lots of moisture to our west as well. It looks much more impressive than it did on Saturday, when we were under a 33 hour long WWA. What am I missing here? Is all this moisture going to “dissapear” before reaching us?
The forecast guidance generally shunts one part of the moisture northeast into West Virginia and Pennsylania, consolidates another piece to the south toward Louisiana and Mississippi, and dries up much of the middle. Whether this is what happens, we’ll just have to watch and see.
Radar looks robust. We’ll see what happens. Now I started adding elevation to my name. I think it will be more convenient so everyone will know now!
Thanks Nick. It’s all important to know the elevation a report is coming from, mainly during the winter months
So Kevin the next week are we going to see temps in the 50′s and 30′s at night or colder 40′s and 20′s mixed in?
Looks like the main moisture is off to the NW and moving NE. This should almost by pass Roanoke. Temp is 32.9* here so anything that falls is likely to be snow, at least during the night hours. Airport showing 36* and most places around the city is in the mid thirtys, so it’s a toss-up as far as what happens down there. Actually, DC is showing 34* close to her house in Ckeck and Poor Mt. is warmer than me.
Yes, Nickster, I agree with wd fully and also thank you for including that info. I had no idea that Ellett Valley was that much lower than Bburg and even Christiansburg (I think most of C-burg is roughly 1900′). Heck, your only 135 feet higher than me (and Kevin’s home) and lower than the mounteen man (wd). And now that you have added that info, unless you change it or something weird happens, your elevation will always be there for all your blog comments.
Jared from Greene i fill your pain.Its very dishearting to never get a decent snowfall this far north anymore.Living in Northern Fauquier county used to get you at least 3-5 big snows 10-20 years ago but not any more.Last year Richmond had more snow than we did and its always 10-15 colder here most of the time.Oh well there`s always next year.I`m already done with this winter.Average high temps are on the way up and days are getting longer.
There’s several serious wood chukers on this board. I hope you’ve had an easier time keepin up than me. Since last week all I seem to have done is haul wood, stack wood and then throw it in the stove, that seemed to go up in smoke. And most times, it’s been hard to stay even. Bad stretch of weather for a wood chucker. Worse fer an oil company. Hardy har har.
So, you want to elevate us all Nick? You got it!
I’ve been watching the radar too and wondering if we’d get any. If it is rain I am fine if it dries up.
Quite a bit of the radar echoes from earlier have dissipated pretty well. Looks like what’s in KY and WV might try to make a run at the area, but the dry air will probably eat a lot of that up. We’re sitting at 38 degrees with just a 64% RH, so even if the moisture makes it here, it will be a while before anything hits the ground.
Thanks Kevin. Just looked at the radar again and there is still quite a bit of moisture with it. Guess it’s time to put on the PJ’s backwards and have a spoon under the pillow LOL
Do you honesty think Montgomery county gets anything out of this?
Any snow in the burg?
Thanks, TinaB.
wdbrand – Currently at 9:30 pm, it is 29 in my back yard. Radar looks like the moisture is not going to make it over the mountain.
If you taught in Blacksburg or one of the counties further west, Shanon, you’d have a shot an inch or so. I am afraid that Roanoke city gets a lot of nothin’ from this.
It’s dark outside, which means it is snowing again in Hot Springs! This time it is glittering brightly. We’ve had perhaps one-half inch to add to the Friday-Saturday-sunday night snows. And more coming. Somehow they manage to clear the highways each morning and off we go.
Just been reading in my hometown paper http://www.scotsman.com that Scotland is being hit with very stormy weather — 65-foot waves hitting the west coast, 120 mph gusts on the summit of Cairn Gorm. Needless to say that ScottishPower’s wind farms are setting records! In another article today, the UK Met Office is predicting that February could be the coldest in Scotland in almost 30 years.
Wd, In comment 42, what you described… same here!
A bit of a warm up here, from 26 to 34F over past few hours. Still plenty of snowcover left.
So far, aside from Bath County where gno is reporting from, not much of the precipitation is even making it over the West Virginia line. Not expecting much out of this anywhere in SW Virginia, maybe some light amounts in spots west of Roanoke.
Agreed, WW. And what has been been falling is starting to break up. Without some reinforcements from further west or SW, as Sargeant Preston of the Mounties used to say to his dog, “Well, King, it looks like this case is closed.”
Looks like we might finally get a storm to come up the coast around the 8th and 9th. Unfortunately snow lovers, it looks like this one will be rain. And we could get quite a bit of it too.
Brandon: The one after that looks like it might be the real soaker, about next Monday or Tuesday or so. Then maybe again Valentine’s Dayish. Don’t think the word “drought” is going to be needed around here for a while.