Bullseye, Roanoke Valley: Several 3-5-inch reports
UPDATE 7:30 AM: Several reports of 3-5 inches are coming in along a strip from northwest of Blacksburg near Newport, throughCraig County, across the Roanoke Valley, and surrounding parts of southern Botetourt and western Bedford County. Amounts were less with rain/sleet mixing to the south and east, and less to the north with more limited moisture. Temperatures, already slightly above freezing, will pop several degrees above freezing by mid to late morning, and may even challenge 50 with some sunshine today, so roads should clear fast. As the big low tightens up off the Northeast coast giving that region a historic blizzard, we’ll get gusty winds topping 40 mph by late afternoon and evening. END UPDATE
The quirky winter of 2012-13 is writing another odd chapter on this Feb. 7-8 that will be long remembered 
by Roanoke Valley snow fans as a rare time that they got more snow than most locations that usually get more snow in Southwest Virginia. Snowfall amounts by morning will likely top 3 inches at many locations in and around the Roanoke Valley — the higher elevations just west and southwest from Catawba to Bent Mountain likely getting just a little more than the valley itself, and some areas just to the north and west in Botetourt County, too. Officially at midnight, Roanoke had 2 inches (WDBJ) with snow still falling, while the National Weather Service office at Blacksburg only had 0.3 inch of mostly sleet. It will likely be many moons before Roanoke has an official sixfold snowfall advantage over Blacksburg at any point in a winter weather event (amounts vary quite a bit in the New River Valley, though — and early morning snow is pushing amounts a little higher, with already another 0.2 inch of snow reported at Blacksburg as of 1:15 a.m.).
Why did this happen? Over the Roanoke Valley and surrounding areas, a weak cold air wedge and evaporational cooling from falling precipitation into somewhat drier air were just enough to overcome a slight push of milder air aloft from the south. The “warm nose” won out to one degree or another (literally 1 degree in some cases) almost everywhere else, leading to more mix, primarily sleet, or even rain/freezing rain at most locations to the south, east and even west and southwest.
The low-pressure system that brought the wintry weather to Southwest Virginia will join forces with a northern-stream low crossing the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes to produce what looks to be a historic blizzard in the Northeast later today into Saturday. We’ll get some breezes off that tightening low, but highs should still make at least the 40s today, even where there is new snow and sleet cover.
February 8, 2013 - 1:24 AM
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I’m going to take a break for a few hours. I’m still recovering from my bout with shingles (not really over yet) and need to get some rest.
Looks like the back edge of the precipitation is edging east into the New River Valley. Snow will slowly taper from west to east. Maybe another inch in it for the Roanoke area.
I’ll try to add some prettier art to this post in the morning.
Post your comments and snow amounts and I’ll get them up at some point in the morning.
I hope you get better Kevin, and thank you for all your hard work. I have another update regarding snowfall totals around this area (just a 1/2 mile-1mile NE of cave spring)
Driveway 1.8-2.0 inches
Car 3.0 inches
Grass 4 inches
Oh and Snow is still falling heavily at the moment.
Snowstorm probably ending in Roanoke around 3am i would assume, I’d say another 1/2 inch accumulation before it’s all said and done.
Here’s another measurement (i’m doing these frequently before the temps get above freezing during mid-morning.
Roads: Still around 2 inches, I think with the grounds being above freezing, the snow is still fighting to stay afloat on the asphalt.
Car: 3.75-4 inches
Grass: Nearly 5 inches
Kevin, By the time this storm has finished, will Roanoke be in Winter Storm Warning Criteria for snow accumulation? without having been issued one?
Alright well the snow is just about officially over with by now, and I have around:
4.5 inches on the Vehicle
2.5 inches on the Neighborhood Road/driveway
I tried measuring all over the yard and got anywhere from 4 to 5 inches, so i just gave up, measuring in the grass isn’t a very accurate way to measure snow anyway, haha. Not sure why I tried though.
Don’t ask why I am up at this hour. Just a quick note that it is still snowing, albeit lightly, which is indeed a pleasant surprise. Looks like 2 inches, without going out to measure.
Kevin, I wouldn’t wish shingles on anyone but Dick Cheney. Be well soon.
Sorry about the shingles, Kevin!…my wife had them and they make people pretty miserable!…Get well. And thanks for all you do.
I went into denial on this one and got caught with my pants down. I will receive many lashes through this day. My sentiment for the day is: I bucked the blog, and the blog won (think Bobby Fuller Mr. Griggs).
Mr. Griggs, I’m on E.C.T..That’s Eastern Chicken Time.
The deck is iced up and 32 degrees.
How is the Great Valentine’s Day storm of 2013 looking right now?
NWS-Blacksburg morning discussion: AS THE SAYING GOES…ITS ALL ABOUT
LOCATION…AND THE LOCATION TO BE LAST NIGHT WAS THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. THE TALK TODAY OF COURSE WILL BE THE SNOW WHICH MADE A
VERY NICE BULLS EYE APPEARANCE FOR OUR HIGHEST POPULATED AREA OF
THE ROANOKE VALLEY. THERE VERY WELL MAY BE A 6 INCH REPORT OUT
THERE SOMEWHERE.
I’ve got 5 inches, so would expect 6 somewhere.
NWS-Blacksburg credits dynamic cooling as the factor that made the difference for Roanoke on this one, a little different than what I described above, or perhaps, in addtion to it.
Safety Tim: Don’t flog yourself on this one. NOBODY called for 3-6 inches in the Roanoke Valley on this one. Nobody. European model deserves most credit for at least getting us to 3.
Models have LOTS of storminess and variable temperature structure for late next week. Can’t seem to zero in on it, but a winter storm is very much still on the table from about Wednesday onward next week, maybe more than 1 shot.
This morning, Euro kicks out this megabomb 3 days after Valentine’s Day:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Stay tuned …
imagine my surprise when i awoke to find 4″ of freshly fallen snow this morning. I thought we’d get a little rain (backed off from earlier projections), but not this.
Anyone wake up the snow plow drivers yet?
I don’t believe this. 2.5 inches on the driveway and front walk, and a full 4 inches on the grass. 33.5*. At least both my side street as well as Sugar Loaf Mntn Road have been plowed! Hats off to VDOT.
Just judging by what’s on top of car, looks like we have about 4 inches in SW Roanoke.
I am getting 2.5 inches on driveway in SW Rke County
I would say averaging the driveway and grass measurements would give a close approximation of what a snow board would show. Driveway holds heat and melts more to start, grass measurements often have more air pockets between snow and ground. But it is only an approximation.
The plows are up and at’em. 81 looks clear at the 135, 460 also.
VICKI ON CRAIGS CREEK: Where are you located on the creek. It’s hard to get a good report from that area and I’m over there a lot. Thanks, it sure would be useful to have an approximate location to check on.
4 inches on board at my home in North Lakes across from Northside High School, Roanoke. Very, very wet. Hopefully, the snow will evacuate the trees before the howlers come this afternoon.
Just rain here at sml by Hales Ford bridge. I need to go to Roanoke to see snow. Weird!
Roanoke’s low temperature: 33 degrees. Never got to freezing mark. Classic borderline wet snow event.
Measured off the truck hood at 5″. Truck might have been a tad warm when the snow started, but that had to do. Didn’t have my snow board out cause, well why should I? You don’t need a snow board to measure rain, maybe a tad of sleet or a trace of ice.
Happy for ‘Noke to get some snow! Hokieburg and NRV can’t always get all the love.
Surprise snows are the best.
Once slight chance of rain passes, a decent in the forecast for Hotlanta – upper 50s will feel nice to us Hokies! We left our mark on the Hard Rock Cafe last night and randomly called out Old Hokie and other schools at this conference responded wtih their cheers. Even so, we came up short with Maryland.
Feel better Kevin. Hope you are taking some kind of pain reliever.
Saw 30.9* last night at 9 PM, but stayed under 34* most of the day, so I was cold enough without much melting going on.
Nothing but rain here in Rocky Mount, but I saw some cars with snow on their hoods coming into work today. I’d like to see some rainfall totals since my rain gauge is broken.
1.6″ snow/sleet 2.4 miles ENE .37″ liquid equivalent!
Just did my morning snow measurements. Kept coming up 4.5 on solid exposed surfaces, so that’s what I’ll go with. Closer to 5 in grass, about 2.5 on pavement. I’m at 1400 feet elevation in Roanoke County south of Roanoke.
30 with about a half inch of ice pellets, freezing rain, sleet and a couple snow flakes thrown in. The windows of the car have a nice thick coating of ice on them AND we are still socked in with the fog. I can see to the end of the driveway and that is it. I don’t think we will see the sun today but might be pleasantly surprised.
Wow – Roanoke has snow! Awesome! Get out and enjoy!
Lovely snow at the Giles/Craig county line. 3.5″ all around.
NO SNOW… Kids went to school on time. Crazy. Congrats fellow snow lovers to my north. I remember a few times Roanoke got more snow than us or got snow while we received sleet or freezing rain. I’m not sure I ever remember Roanoke getting 3 to 6 inches of snow and Grayson County Schools not even being delayed. Wild Winter.
Really pretty snow here in Shenandoah Valley just north of Staunton. About a half inch of snow that’s stuck to everything except roads. Congrats to my hometown area (Green Hill in Roanoke Co) which seems to have gotten a nice snow event. Continue to enjoy the web site.
We finished with 1″ of dense snow/sleet/ice in New River. It’s hard to say how much of it was purely frozen precipitation, becase we continually flip-flopped around with what we were getting, and quite a bit of the snow that fell melted on top of the layer of sleet underneath. We did get a surprisingly juicy 0.35″ of melted liquid equivalent though, which, had it been all snw would have put us in that nice 3-4″ range. Largely, for much of the NRV the forecasts were pretty close…but obviously the weather had other plans for Roanoke!
Very dense fog here, less than 2/10′s of a mile visibility.
Robo’s comment, #24, made me laugh. Congrats Roanokers on being the snow magnet on this round. Ended up with a half inch of wet snow on the snowboard after midnight. Even with the steady rain last night,there is not too much ice accumulation, about 0.01 at best, as the temp was sporadically going above freezing last night. Seems like the higher elevations were warmer than the lower elevations this time.
We got about 1″ here, most of is sleet I think. I looked out at about 1am and it had started snowing but it didn’t amount to much as far as I am concerned. I feel cheated. Maybe not as cheated as Jared has but still feel cheated.
Moderate rain, 34*, the winter of my discontent champions on!
I measured 0.3″ of snow and sleet here in Bedford for a season total of 1.6″.
Holly: You are located about where the snow bullseye begins to the west.
All I got was a rock!!!! Another cold rain in Ridgeway. UGHHHHH.
Well for one Friday Washington County schools are open on a regular schedule. You snow lovers in Roanoke have finally got your snow and the rest of us did not. We still have patches from last weekend but they are leaving fast. Enjoy it while it lasts cause it sounds like it will leave as fast as it came. Its wet and temps will definitely work on it this weekend. Raining currently in Abingdon.
4.5″ snow (after some melting) in Robin Hood Park neighborhood in S Salem, near 12 O’Clock Knob Rd. Get well soon, Kevin. Thanks.
5″ on my deck in Roanoke County next to Hanging Rock Golf Course. Left everyone at home asleep with schools closed while I clean off car and head to work. Why can’t I take a snow day?
A plug for the shingles vaccine for those who are “middle age” and don’t want the pain discomfort that it can bring them. Hope your case Kevin was mild.
The 1″ last night brings us up to 14.4″ of snow and sleet for the winter here, with 12.7 of that coming over the past 22 days…the other 1.7″ fell from after Christmas through New Year’s Eve.
You can zero in on our area on these Web links to see the snow bullseye (and the beginning of the blizzard in the Northeast):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/snow/
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php
This time a bullseye with significant snow totals surrounded by very little snow and January 17th an almost snowless area surrounded by much larger snow totals. Bedford falls into the almost snowless area both times.
Just for the heck of it, I went through the precipitation logs I have to see how things are stacking up this winter as compared to the previous ones. In terms of total snowfall at my house going back to the 08-09 winter, here’s what Ive got:
08-09: 13.3″
09-10: 51.3″
10-11: 21.1″
11-12: 12.8″
12-13: 14.4″ so far.
The climate data I’ve found indicates just short of 2′ is the typical average, and the measured average of 22.6″ is close to that, with still a fair bit of this winter left to go. Goes to show that a blockbuster winter can skew the average much higher than the median winter value…the median is almost 15″, while the average is almost 9″ above that.
And Roanoke’s official snow total was exactly the same (3.5 inches) in both events, Donnie.
Of all the winters I’ve followed here, I would say this is the strangest.
A couple more decent snow events and just normal temps in February, Roanoke could end up with a warm AND snowy winter!
Roanoke #1 for snow on the east coast last night?
Very slow warm-up here with fog
Other John, where do you live?
About 2″ on the Continental Divide. The characteristics of our snows this winter have been most interesting. Above freezing temps, and rapid accumulation on roads. Strange. (Pretty good slug of moisture moving our way from the west.)
Kevin sorry you have to deal with Shingles–painful stuff. Wanted you take on Larry Cosgrove. I like his web site as he seems to track global dimensions of the weather and suggests that February will be real volatile with much moisture for east coast and depending on temperature fluctuations anything from heavy rain to heavy snow-seems to spot on so far. Here is the web site http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove. He has been talking about weather system coming of Japan coast dropping down to Texas with potential for heavy mid-Atlantic snowstorm over Valentines weekend. Are there good global sites with visuals to monitor that would show moment of fronts from west to east?
We had a thin layer of slush in Blacksburg. I wore my running shoes to work.
Temps (35) are going up and it looks like the sun is trying to burn through the fog.
Radar shows rain coming into Pulaski and headed this way.
Everybody help me find that wind button. Need to turn it off before this evening.
Another “miss” for Goodview. We ended up with mostly all sleet and a little snow to top it off. Everything was already white from so much sleet so it was hard to tell if we even got enough snow to make a difference. Overall about 1/2 inch measured. Having a few issues so my PWS isn’t sending info at the moment, but before I left for work I was up to .27 in liquid precip and I could tell there was still more in the bucket to melt.
I feel like we’re being mocked by VDOT – we got zero snow last night, but the plows are driving by. I’ve seen cars drive by with snow on them, so there is some around here somewhere. It’s 37 and foggy here.
The winter storm warning for my family in NH now says SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MORE THAN 2 FEET. That’s a big ‘un.
Feel better soon, Kevin!
We have about 4 inches here in SW Co Roanoke. Kids are already out building a snowman! They are so excited! Temps are hanging around 34-35 right now.
Dr. B: Larry Cosgrove is an excellent meteorologist with a good understanding of global weather patterns. He’s had to backpedal quite a bit, though, from a premature declaration that winter was “over” or even “toast” in the central and eastern U.S.
wdbrand SW Rke. Co. 1827: I’m on Route 621 near the Montgomery County line.
3″ in Salem – near West Salem Elementary.
Matt Blacksburg, we live in the New River community of Pulaski County, to the NW of Radford across the New River…adjacent to Fairlawn. But I work in the ‘burg by the airport.
I bet folks in New England are wanting to hunt down a particular rodent today…
Quite a surprise to see 3-ish inches on the driveway this morning in SW City. It was pretty easy to shovel, though getting down the steep hill backwards was fun. Noticed a definite change in accumulation driving up to Blacksburg around Dixie Caverns and Ironto.
Sun was out for a bit about mid morning and the fog is gone and so is the frozen slush. Temps are 42 and yes, the wind is picking up. Sun is gone now.
wdbrand – I have been looking for that button to turn off the wind and have not been able to find it. Like my neighbor/farmer told us when we moved here that there is a two strand barb wire fence that keeps the northwest wind at bay and sometimes one of the strands is down. LOL! I have been looking for that fence line so that I can re-string that barb wire.
Far-South Roanoke, off Rte.220, uphill from the “Outback,” 1425-feet…
I measured 3-2/3″ (or so) of snow. It was a bit tricky to get a definitive
measurement, due to the sheer wetness and compacting of the Snow,
AND I’m a wee-bit late (12:30pm) in taking the “official measurement” for my place.
I’m going to call it at 3.8″ total. Started as sleet/rain appx. 7:00pm
last night, and lasted an hour. Within the next 20-30 minutes, had changed to
all-Snow, some of which fell in large-HUGE wet flakes. One almost could
HEAR some of those soppy, enormous flakes landing with a palpable “PLOP.”
And so it continued, apparently, throughout most of the night/early a.m.
It was what some of us call a “Southern Slider,” in that the Low and the
moisture/cloud shield sorta “slides” or “slips” UP from a Southern/SouthWestern,
and bypasses Roanoke, fairly closely, to the East/South.
I suppose these “Southern Sliders” are usually Miller-A’s or Miller-B’s.
Having lived through six Roanoke Winters, now, it’s become clear that a
great majority of Roanoke’s Seasonal Snowfall arrives via these “Southern Sliders.” Little, if any, of our Seasonal Snowfall comes from
“Lake Effect,” Up-sloping, or Alberta Clippers. (At most, 10-20%.)
And, WHAT A SURPRISE it was last night! Well, Friends, we were due for
a Surprise Snowfall! I LOVED IT!
As always, thank you Kevin for ALL that you do, and your energy and
commitment. Also hope you continue recovering. I hold a permanent
Prescription for a Shingles Shot, and am seriously considering getting it,
despite its appx. $225.00 cost! YEEPS! The shot is easy to get, though,
because the local/Large chain Grocery Store’s Pharmacy offers it.
Counting December 2012, January 2013, and February 2013 (to date),
Roanoke’s Winter Season Snowfall for MY Location now totals 11.4″.
What is Quags talking about? Storm for Valentine’s day and presidents day? Long range from weather channel has it 50s all next week! Quags, are you catching Tolleris fever? LOL
Good support for both, Jared. And it may be 50s before and between them. Active weather pattern ahead.
Jared…
No DT fever, I got my vaccination before winter started.
What I’m talking about is the Friday afternoon 12Z Euro operational run has another huge potential BIG UN for February 17-18 for the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast and northeast. Valentne’s Day not as strong as the 17th-18th but still a possible major snow for VA.
I’m sure Zach & others will confirm this.
Here’s the Friday 12Z Euro op. loop from Allan Huffman.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA_loop.html
When I get time, I’ll update QWC and go into specifics for next week.
How much snow did you get outta this one JF?
Haven’t looked up the NAO values, but last time I checked, everything was near neutral. Everything AccuHenry has ever dwelled on for East Coast storms are PNA+ and NAO-….. so where has this monster storm come from without sufficient blocking?
Cap’t, all I see is a little red x in the upper left hand corner. Might be a setting on my end, don’t know.
Never ceases to amaze me how a forecast like yesterday could be so far off, yet when a wind advisory is issued, it’s dead on. Upper teens to high 30′s since noon and a gust to 47.2 MPH at 4 PM. Awesome, mind blowing accuracy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Matt: Here is a link to veteran meteorologist Wes Junker on Capital Weather Gang explaining how this storm is coming together.
http://tinyurl.com/bhl5wps
who needs models, right? I mean you have to take everything the Weather Channel says as gospel…. they are the only ones brilliant enough to name Winter Storms, right….in all seriousness, a ten day outlook for Accuweather or TWC is worthless…. keep the models coming! the trends they show help more than anything….
Flutie, after much deliberation, I have formed an opinion. Models, forecasts, ACCU, TWC as well as Noaa and the NWS are worthless over 24 hours out. And then only believe part of it. Unless it’s a high wind warning.
WD, all I woke up to was a slushy inch. Sure would like to see one significant snow this winter! I mean 6+ is not asking for much.
Woke up this morning to a moderate snow.Finally picked up about 3 inches.Thats about 7 inches for the season.Fauquier and Culpeper schools were closed.Low this morning was 31.high was 40.Its back down to 38 now.Jared did you get snow down your way?
Plenty of time left JF.
TinaB, may I tease you?? If you are still feeling cheated, please skip the rest of this comment. I intend this in good fun only. When any letter carrier in my office used to complain too much about being overburdened, or about having to do a “help load,” {Delivering 1/2 hour or an hour on a different route in addition to doing all of his/her route}, one of our carriers used to blurt out, “WAHH!!” like a crying baby. You didn’t get enough snow? “WAHH!” :>) :>) I would have gladly done the Vulcan Snow Meld thing with you this A.M. But at least I was not walking. If I had the same position that I had 4 months ago, I would have been delivering the monster route in the slushy snow.
Since the snow has ended, I am going to mention another item. The drought monitor. The area that was in D1 last week, meaning moderate drought, is now downgraded to D-zero, Abnormally Dry. Botetourt, northern half of Bedford County, Amherst, Nelson, western half of Albemarle, Rockbridge, Augusta, and nearly all of Alleghany, Bath, and Highland Counties. Out of drought? Roanoke valley and southern half of Bedford County.
Jared French, you do have one thing to be grateful for, but I don’t know whether you will agree. Greene County is not in drought, either.