Rainy by Sunday PM; some snow potential midweek
UPDATE 8:40 PM: Some sleet and snow, caused by evaporational cooling as precipitation falls into cold, dry air, is being reported on front end of the advancing rain shield this evening. Some minor accumulations are possible before higher layers of the atmosphere warm enough for all precipitation to change to rain. END UPDATE
The historic winter storm that set snowfall records in many locations as it dumped widespread 1 to 3-foot amounts on New England (and locally even more, especially in Connecticut, where astonishing 4- to-6-inch per hour snowfall rates occurred Friday evening) is pulling away on this Saturday evening, some snow lingering in eastern Maine and near Cape Cod. There is actually another substantial winter storm cruising into the Northern Plains, with blizzard warnings from northeast Colorado across Nebraska into the Dakotas. Storms like these are why I remind folks that even though average temperatures have been similarly mild to last year locally, this active winter and last year’s relatively calm winter are far different when looking at the national weather pattern.
Saturday has been a stunningly gorgeous day with blue skies and temperatures topping 50 in some parts of Southwest Virginia. Sunday will be similar in temperature but see increasing clouds, leading to a period of significant rain Sunday night and Monday. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is highlighting widespread amounts topping half an inch in our region. Rainfall will be enhanced along the Blue Ridge with some southeasterly wind flow enhancing upslope lift. Other than maybe a few pockets of freezing rain in some valley areas north of I-64 at the start, this should easily be an unfrozen rain situation, with weak or non-existent wedging and southerly to southeasterly wind flow scouring out any residual cold air near the surface. Monday’s highs may even shoot into the 60s once the rain ends – and even behind the cold front the system drags through, highs will likely be above normal in the 50s on Tuesday.
And that takes us to a storm system approaching Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models are varying on its exact track, but the consensus is for a track that is generally conducive for snow potential in our region, moving south of us across Georgia and the Carolinas (HPC Wednesday morning projection at left). The major question is whether there will be enough cold air to tap for anything beyond cold rain, as the air behind late Monday’s “cold” front isn’t all that cold. This has been a winter of repeated marginal cold air setups that have more often than not yielded some level of substantial wintry precipitation over at least part of Southwest Virginia — Dec. 26, Jan. 17 and this past Thursday night/Friday morning come to mind. So it’s not easy to dismiss a situation like this. The storm tracking much farther north than projected (too warm) or much farther south (too dry) would render the question moot. Just mark this as another system of interest for some snow potential as we move into midweek. There may be another toward next weekend, as well, but forecast guidance is, as should be expected so far out, even more widely divergent on evolution and track of any possible storm system.
February 9, 2013 - 5:41 PM
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Fairly decent day. Got up to 52.2*, the winds fell off to under 10 MPH and I got to stir my coals all day. Snow was mostly gone by dark last night. Took the day off and did zero.
If the high pressure on that HPC map were sitting in Canada instead of Maryland, I’d be extremely excited.
These next 2 storms are my best chance for snow this year! The reason I say that is because DT has said that it will be to warm and the storms will just be a cold rain. DT has been horrible this year on storms for our area! He did get the big northeast snow correct however.
Jared French of Greene County, I think NOVA/DC will get dumped on next week, 2 or 3 imes! Why? Because I’m out of town all week! I am kryptonite to any snow the last 3 years.
Really like Wednesdays potential. Alot.
18Z GFS is a hefty snow wallop on Wednesday. Simplifying and generalizing quite a bit, but all the green and blue shades behind the blue line would be snow on this map for Wednesday afternoon:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Track is back to the south after coming north on 12Z — and it’s similar to Euro and Canadian.
Interesting days ahead.
Kevin,
I have a general question, in your opinion, is the 0z & 12z model runs better (more reliable) than the 6z & 18z model runs? Generally – nothing to do with the current model runs for Tues PM/Wed.
The thinking on that, Todd, is that the 0Z and 12Z models ingest a lot of new data from weather balloon launches, while the 6Z and 18Z are sort of a second opinion on the same data used in the 0Z and 12Z runs.
Strictly for forecasting purposes, the 6Z and 18Z runs tend to be included more the closer we get in time to a weather event. In this case, I just threw it out there because it shows something interesting that is generally supported by other models.
Can’t happen Wed. cause it ain’t Friday yet.
Kevin,
Benn keepin up with your blog since we got 13″ here in Jan…are the models showin a similar snow this upcoming weekend? Hate too say it, but I’m envious of the yankees that got the blizzard…lol
Next weekend is blurry. Models have backed off some on blowing up a major East Coast storm, but there are some hard-to-time disturbances and a fairly conducive upper air pattern that could still make one or something lesser possible.
Focus is shifting to the midweek storm now. If the track is pretty close to most guidance and the cold air is there, even just barely, it could easily be the headliner of the week.
I really like the potential for significant snow on Wednesday, but I hope Bedford doesn’t get left out again. These borderline events that could start as rain seem to really have trouble here. The 0C 850mb line really crashes south with the onset of precip, so it could be all snow or only a brief period of rain. Lots of back and forth coming up on the models so I am keeping my hopes in check.
At my home just north of the Bedford city limits the biggest storm this season was 0.7″ of snow on January 25th, so it won’t take much to be the season’s biggest snowfall.
when do the 0z models of the GFS and Euro come out?
Look at what my sister Susie (Ipswich, MA) just sent to me as a link within an e-mail. She could have used one of these puppies ….. she had about 2 feet of snow. http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=tPg1ZMiC9pA
Thanks for keeping us up to date with all of the up/down weather we are having – especially while you are not feeling well. I hope you are feeling a little better each day.
New NAM looks good of you’re a snow lover. I would post it but alas, I’m on my smartphone.
Doug…
where do I sign up for a Roboplow? If they come up with a convertible way to make it mow grass and til in the summer and go back to a plow in winter, I’m in.
Flutie…0Z models start coming out around 10:30 for the 0Z NAM, 11:00 for the 0Z CMC, 11:30 PM for the 0Z GFS and 1:45 AM for the 0Z Euro. Ensembles follow the op runs by about 2 hours.
This is what Brandon speaks of:
http://tinyurl.com/aqa9ypq
Little bit different evolution of storm, but NAM has lots of moisture overrunning air cold enough to support snow.
84-hour NAM is usually not too close on details. Expect it will follow GFS/Euro in more southern track of low.
Here Brandon…
Your link to the Sunday 0Z NAM for Wednesday. Looks good for snow.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_0z/wrf84.html
Of course bear in mind, it’s the NAM at 84 hours out…not that great of resolution this far out.
Early Wednesday evening on the 0Z GFS — big snow on I-81 corridor in Virginia.
http://tinyurl.com/atat56z
Busy days ahead. You may not see me on here much on Sunday.
0Z GFS here we go…
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html
at least 4-8″ or more for western VA & I-81 corridor late Weds. PM to Thurs mid-day.
Donnie from Bedford i hope you finally get some decent snow this week as you probaly have gotten less than Jared from Greene County!Low this morning was 28.Don`t know what the high was as I was at Charles Town playing the slots all day.Now down to 27.
Captain Quagmire…
Southwestern VA…near Bristol?
So sayeth the models, CGQ, about the Wed./Thursday event. Although sometimes in this crazy winter around here, the actuals have outperformed the models.
By the way, Capitan Glenno Quagmira, usted debe ver al comento 68 en el “Threado” previoso. {You ought to look at comment 68 at 4:57 PM today on the previous thread) Within the 2nd paragraph, I mentioned that a friend of mine heard or saw that a 90-mph wind gust had blown into ….. Nantucket.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/02/not-last-train-to-kitty-hawk.html
Checkout my blog for latest thoughts on the storm! Think this IS a go for somewhere in the Mid Atlantic. Best chances 460 Cooridor back into West Virginia. Think however we have a good shot of an area wide moderate snowstorm from NWNC all the way up 81.
Mike from Marshall,I probably have less snow than almost everyone in Virgina because of the January 17th snow hole fiasco. I can remember almost every winter storm back to the late 1970′s and we haven’t been skipped over like we were during that storm once.
I really hope all of us can cash in this week. It is starting to look promising. Good luck to you too
Foot-plus monster or bust!
Just kidding.
Sort of..
Where has Jared been? Did he travel up to Connecticut or Mass. or Maine on Thursday and stay there to get a monstrous “snow fix” at least once this season?
I am liking this conversation! Zach, great blog. I’ll be booking marking it into my weather folder.
Just clicked over to the NWS 7 day forecast and here is what they have for Wednesday: “Rain likely before 2pm, then rain and snow likely between 2pm and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”
The NAM’s early idea on the Wednesday snow.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
And the GFS shoves the snow more up along the WV line for Wednesday morning.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Good Morning Bloggers – 26, no wind up here on the ridge and the most breathtaking sunrise is happening! Red sky in the morning – sailors take warning. Gorgeous!
Here’s what the HPC is currently thinking in regards to QPF with the midweek system:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
Without considering any other factors and assuming a standard 10:1 snow ratio, it would be a 3 to 6 inch type event for our area. However, cold air looks to be marginal and we’ll have a couple of relatively warm days ahead of the system. If I were basing a forecast off of this and this alone, I would be hesitant to go with more than 1 to 3 inches.
This is subject to change, and I think it will. We don’t yet know just how strong the system is going to be. The eventual strength of the system can have a big effect on the amount of moisture we get and also how much dynamic cooling takes place. I think the big question mark here is whether or not there is any interaction with an upstream wave in the northern branch of the jet stream. IF and WHERE that occurs will have big implications for the forecast.
As Kevin said, interesting days lie ahead.
Right now, the NWS thinks this storm could be similar to the Jan. 17th event. Might not be good news for snow lovers like Blacksburg Mike who want a long duration snow event.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
DETAILS
CAN STILL CHANGE A TON CONSIDERING THIS IS DAY 4…BUT THIS SYSTEM
SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE JAN 17 EVENT. THE OP GFS AND GEFS IS
STILL BULLISH INDICATING A 6HR PERIOD OF MODERATE PRECIP
UNDERNEATH A DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
ATTM…SEEMS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A MORNING RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED. &&
Evolution of storm on most models has similarities to Jan. 17 and last year’s Feb. 19 event — which of course both involved dynamic cooling pulling temperatures down to snow range. It s
NAM is alone in taking low more northeast into Kentucky rather than south of us through Carolinas. And it’s at the edge of its range, so not buying its solution without more support.
In other news … HPC has pulled our rain totals with tonight/Monday system to .25-.50.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif
Oh well, another snow chance destroyed by the dreaded Blue Ridge monster! As usual all indications are great snow west of the Blue Ridge and NOTTA for us on the east side!
IDK…I’m feeling a repeat of Jan 17 all over again…What does your certified weather eyes say to you Kevin?
Another severe weather warning today for “increasing winds and colder temps”. In February! Imagine that
Eva…
Right now 2-4″ at the most as it stands for around TRI. Points north and northeast of Bristol have better chance of seeing more snow.
El Senor’ Griggs…
Había una vez un hombre de Nantucket. Corría el viento tan fuerte que él se ha quedado atascado…
Another plug to Zach and his blog…nails it!
Does it still look like 3 cracks at the bat over the next 10 days? or have any of the 3 fizzled?
I really liked comments 3 and 4 on this thread, by Jumpin’ Jared French and I’m in DC. That clinches it …. there will be at least one 6+-inch snowstorm for both Greene County and the District of C by a week from today, especially with those surefire signs. I wonder if the SW Virginia snow-lovers will get at least one of them, too. Probably. This winter is definitely shaping up as a winter of two halves, with the 2nd half (for SW Virginia now) being at least normal snowfall and closer to normal for temps (maybe even colder than normal?) than the December 1 – January 15th period.
Oh, for those of you keeping track (maybe Sam Oakey and Safety Tim ….), 10 weeks down, 6 to go.
It has been 3 months since the last time that a month started off cooler than normal here, so we were due for another one. To date, Roanoke is 1.4* colder than normal, Blacksburg -1.8*.
Brandon, I thought that the 7:13 and 8:47 comments were by Kevin until I got to the bottom of them. Great analysis. Kevin, if you cannot get Kathryn Prociv to pinch-hit for you the next time you are unavailable, maybe you could get Brandon?
Rick, TYVM and please keep those clown maps coming, if you can. Even if they end up being off, at least the trend over time should give all of us an idea whether snow is more likely or less likely.
Sunday 12Z NAM & GFS are both warmer at the start and further north now with a rain to snow on the back end for the 13th-14th event. Still a fair chance for snow in western VA.
Sunday 12Z NAM loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html
Sunday 12Z GFS op loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
Do anybody think a foot is out of the question for the Blacksburg Radford area?
My elevation is about 2300′ feet or so
Of course this can and will change but right now the NWS has Roanoke with RAIN/SNOW likely on Wednesday at 60% and just plain SNOW likely Wednesday night at 60%. Tomorrow or even later today would be predictably likely to say SUNNY and 65-degrees….hahaha! I want my blizzard like Worcester. MASS. got or maybe a bit less. Jared, Nick from Ellet Valley, TWLS gals, Nurse Snow…we snow lovers must stick together and do a snow dance for a big un’ before it’s too late!!!!
I don’t think as of now that anyone gets a foot out of the midweek storm, or that it will have as thick moisture ad Jan. 17 did in areas southwest of Roanoke.
Well the RRA only got 3.5″ of snow from that while most others, with exception of a warm bubble around Vinton/Stewartsville/the lake, got 5-6″ or so. You don’t think the Wednesday snow will even provide a paltry 3.5 “? Paltry is my big word this year!!
I have to admit when I am wrong….that last surprise snow of about 4″ here, 3.5 at RRA once again I stated the temps. would probably stay cold because of the snow cover and that we wouldn’t get to 51-degrees like they predicted. Well it did get to 51 that day and melted much of the wet snow. They not only were correct, but exact. I didn’t think it would get past 40 or so figuring we would stay in that cold air wedge, cloud cover and snow cover.
Think the highlands are a lock for significant snow. Gonna be close for areas to the South. Depends on the exactyrack of the ull. Gfs was way north with this today
What is your forecast for the Radford Blacksburg area at 2300′ feet
In other words how much snow
Jared: Think you’re throwing in the towel a little early. Still lots of details to be worked out in the next couple of days.
Looking at national radar, I’m starting to become a little concerned that our rainfall tonight into tomorrow may once again exceed expectations. Something to watch.
Sunday’s 12Z Euro not much help either for Wednesday’s event. Euro shunts all the moisture south of VA and is warmer. Some snow for VA maybe but nothing more than a couple of inches max.
The future is very blury after the 15th now. Just cold temps and not much else.
DT sayin its gonna track further south now..rain for VA…anyone else seein this?
…or maybe not. Convection to the south is starting to cut off moisture farther north.
HPC snow probability map now has 6 VA counties in a slight chance of 4″+ snow for Wednesday 2/13: Highland, Bath, Tazewell, Russell, Dickenson, and Buchanan. It will be interesting to see if that can be nudged east at least to I-81 or possibility the Blue Ridge. Seems unlikely anything will happen snow wise east of the Blue Ridge on Wednesday – poor Jared.
Wow, if this winter just doesnt suck! No storm for Valentine’s day now! Although DT says the storm on the 17th looks more bullish on the Euro, take that for what its worth!
Never was a heat wave to day tho probably close to the average temp. 44.8* here now. Sidenote: DC, think you said you have a youngen in Minnenap. Got a nephew in Riverfalls WIS. Those boys have got hammered there this winter.
But Scott, it wasn’t technically a blizzard up in the Northeast, LOL. See the comments of NEWx at the end of the previous thread. Although he may be correct, I think that the NWS ought to change its definition of a blizzard. When I was growing up, any big snowstorm (15″ or more) that also had a lot of wind (gusts over 30) was referred to as a blizzard by just about everyone, and to heck with the definition.
It’s way too early to get into specific numbers for Wednesday. Don’t think they will be terribly high though, if in fact there is snow at all in our region.
The system going farther north would cause it to be warmer and more rain, not going south. Going too far south could lead to a drier system. There are forecast models that show each of these possibilities.
Surprised you said that Quags. I still think our chances for snow around President’s Day are rather good.
The good news is that it finally won’t snow Thurs/Fri. The bad news it could snow Wed and Sat!
Went to Church League Volleyball from 2-6. It seemed warm when we went in but had cooled considerably when we came out. Rain had started and had large wet snow flakes mixed in. When I got home temps were around 42. I was surprised to see the mixture but I guess it all depends on whats up high.
agreed with quags. I am not buying this weekend at all. Think the flow is way too progressive and there does not appear to be a Gulf connection at this point. NOT a pattern for snowfall in this area.
Still not giving up on Wednesday, but the trend is for sure not the friend.
Interesting observation, Michael. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear some more sleet/wet snow mix at outset of rain tonight, falling through colder, drier air. Don’t see much mechanism to maintain it, though.
Regarding the strict definition of “blizzard” or blizzard conditions”
As far as it affects the general public in my opinion any major distinction
isn’t really that called for.
If Joe average citizen is considering being out in one hours worth
of blizzard conditions whats important is the safety of the listener.
Haggling over the duration of what can be a life threatening event
is splitting hairs at the expense of folks safety.
Being academic in this situation does little good for anyone.
…In other words this phrase may be apt here..”when you are up to your a** in alligators its a little late to talk about draining the swamp.”
We’re getting off easy with this system. Saw a report earlier of nearly seven inches of snow falling in just one hour in MN. Now there are confirmed reports of major damage from violent tornadoes in MS.
Tornado Hits Hattiesburg, Mississippi – 02/10/10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56B9XhXPKnU&feature=player_detailpage
Doh! video from today 2-10-13
Question.. who lists the best elevation numbers? My address can be either Radford or Fairlawn, both same zipcode and I’m in Pulaski County. All 3 have different elevations, lol. I know it doesn’t matter much, just curious.
Sleetin
Rain mixed with big snow flakes and 43 degrees.
Oh, I forgot, the deck has a lot of sleet on it too. I just got home.
Currently 37 with a humidity of 44% up here near FCX (Doppler). Thinking we will just have a cold rain here.
Yes, wd – just read online that the Minneapolis/St. Paul area is under a “Snow Emergency”.
What the heck…41 degrees and sleeting in max meadows. My deck is the tiniest bit slick.
Snow here at 40º.
Snow and sleet here in Hillsville at present. Temp is 44.
Snowing here in Woodlawn,sticking to the deck and 40* ! Gotta love winter!!
Forgot to include Hillsville’s altitude in my previous post.
Did my post disappear? I posted that it was snowing and sleeting in Hillsville. Temp is 44.
Now that’s cool looking.!!!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html
Another good day to look at the Wind Map.
http://hint.fm/wind/
Ok, it’s all sleet now and is sticking to the street and to the cars. I’m kinda surprised since it’s 44 degrees!
Riddle me this…. sleet and snow mix right now in Radford around 2200 feet! Didn’t see this coming.
I’m not wishing my life away Doug, besides, then we’ll be in forest fire season and then tornado season.
34º now and mostly rain.
Wintry mix just started up here.
Went to let the dogs out and was quite surprised to see it sleeting heavily with some snow mixed in. About quarter inch so far. Wondering when the NWS point forecasts are going to reflect this.
Brandon…
you may be right. I did not take into account the 12Z Euro Ensembles and Ensemble Mean when I made that post. I based it on the op. run. The problem with next weekend as it stands right now is what Zach says above. Maybe I’m looking at the maps wrong but it appears that the Low will form and intensify north of VA. Still a week out. I hope your right. Ski trip planned for Snowshoe Feb. 19-22.
Right now, I’m looking at the mess in the South…MS & AL getting hit hard with extreme supercells and tornados.
Sleet and snow in blacksburg
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
838 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
NCZ003-004-020-VAZ011-013-014-016>020-022>024-032>034-043-WVZ044-
110245-
SURRY-STOKES-YADKIN-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-HENRY-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DOBSON…DANBURY…YADKINVILLE…
PEARISBURG…RADFORD…PULASKI…BLACKSBURG…GALAX…FLOYD…
NEW CASTLE…CLIFTON FORGE…COVINGTON…HOT SPRINGS…ROANOKE…
SALEM…FINCASTLE…LEXINGTON…BUENA VISTA…STUART…
ROCKY MOUNT…BEDFORD…MARTINSVILLE…UNION
838 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
A LINE OF SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW AND RAIN IS CROSSING OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA…AND NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. BRIEF BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AT
FIRST…BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS AND TRANSITIONS TO COLD
RAIN. BEWARE OF POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS…ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
We started out as sleet here tonight. There is some rain mixed in.
Just updated blog to note wintry mix with evaporational cooling on front end of rain shield (also noted in an earlier comment). Shouldn’t last too long til upper layers warm enough for all rain, but some spots especiallt at higher elevations may see (and in som cases already are) light slushy accumulations.
Sleet here too! that was a surprise!
Rain and sleet starting in Glenvar, 43.8 degrees. Weather Service has issued an advisory.
Safety Tim, I don’t understand your comment at 8:26. :>) Maybe you didn’t get the gist of mine. I was simply giving an obvious status report as to how far we have come through (my definition of) winter, and how many weeks are left in it. That’s all.
Surprised at how hard its sleeting here. Its 42 degrees with some snow mixed in.
Sleet started at 8:30 here. Temps are at 35 currently. Slippery on the deck.
Got in my car near North Cross High School (SW Roanoke County near 419 and Colonial Ave.) at 8:30, and it was about 50* and no rain, Started raining immediately and my car’s thermometer dropped like a rock in the 8-minute trip. All the way down to 41* here.
Sleet on Read Mountain in Bonsack.
Heavy Sleet in Bonsack now… 44.1 degrees!!!!
Sleet on Lost Mountain (Back Creek) 37 degrees 1600 ft
Heavy sleet here in Troutville/Nace area.
Driving around the Roanoke Valley tonight I encountered a little sleet and quite a few slushy raindrops — the kind that were obviously recently melted snowflakes — but mostly just rain.
Sleet just ended here in South Roanoke, elevation 1500 and it is 41 degrees. Just some light rain now with a trace of sleet on my deck.
Sleet just started in Bedford.
Deb in Fairlawn: in reply to your 7:24 comment, I strongly recommend that you get Google Earth downloaded onto your computer. One of the bloggers here of the superior gender (probably either Doppler Carol or Nurse Snow) put me onto that at least a year ago, and I love it. Simply enter an address into the slot on the left once the first screen appears, and suddenly you think you are in a spaceship coming in for a landing. Gives an aerial view of the address in question, with its elevation at the bottom of the screen.
You can play Scottie on the Star Trek’s Enterprise, following Kirk’s orders. “Scottie, beam me over to the Golden Gate Park in San Francisco.” “Aye, Captain!”
You’re good Doug, I used to wish for spring. Now I just roll through the seasons useing weather as opposed to a calender.
Sleet accumulates better with well-above freezing temps than snow. Think about hail a minute. It’s a very dense form of ice, and can accumulate if it falls hard enough when it’s 70+ degrees outside. Sleet is denser ice than snow. Just as ice cubes you pour out on the yard don’t melt immediately in the summer, sleet won’t melt as quickly when it’s 40 degrees. Snow, being more fragile ice crystals, melts much more readily.
I’ve seen 2 inches sleet accumulation hang around like a giant slurpee when it’s in the mid 50s.
Joe: I agree with your 6:49 p.m. comment regarding blizzard definition.
HokieGal: Your first post didn’t disappear, it’s just that this is a moderated board and I (or someone else among our editors or online team) have to personally approve each comment for post.
Won’t dwell on this too much yet — but the new NAM has an extreme northern solution with the Wednesday storm, taking a low up to near Pittsburgh. Would be mostly or all rain with that track.
Meanwhile, Euro went south with barely any moisture making it past NC line.
Wide disparity in guidance, far more than you like to see 72 hours or so before an event. And it has gotten wider.
Last time I went out here I had sleet falling. But I hear we are supposed to be in the 60′s for Monday and Tuesday.
What’s up with the snow/sleet/rain tonight. I thought it was going to set in all night and the shield has already passed us and is about to exit out of Roanoke. I really expected more unless I am missing something.
wd has almost certainly retired to his sleep chamber, so I will say it for him. In regard to the wide discrepancy between the NAM and the EURO for Wednesday, “they doan know what’s gonna happen.” It will be a minor miracle (OK, that is a big exaggeration, and I know it …) if either of those solutions ends up close to being correct.
Looks like the rain is mostly over to me, Michael.
For chuckles I looked at the computer-generated multiday outlooks. On the 6-10 day CPC computer thinks that there is a very likely cold snap centered in southern SC, all of SE Georgia, and almost all of northern Florida. Purple, 70% likely.
Two things: it will be interesting to see if tomorrow’s CPC multiday for the 6-10 looks at all similar; and 2; if that does verify, I will consider myself one very lucky guy. I was in that area for parts of 8 days, and most of them were quite warm and overall dry.
Gotta love a little model chaos to end the weekend.
I think the models are ingesting some of those mushrooms wd talks about sometimes.
Well Kevin, wouldn’t it be logical right now to take an average of the NAM and the Euro and thus the solution would be a low that roughly bisects both paths and gives us a moderate snow or mix event? What does the GFS say? Or the Canadian?
Forecasters will be doing something like that, Nick. The average between the extremes seldom pans out, though … it’s more often the case that one model has a better idea than the others. They’re all still bouncing run to run, too, so that adds to the confusion.
Still crazy after all ….. these years. The models may have “ingested” some wd mushrooms, but at least one of them is having trouble “digesting” them. Reader’s Digest?
wd may wake up tomorrow on his E.C.T. and have pink or even red ears.
Clarification: The “still crazy … etc.” referred to the models only.
GFS came a little north with the low on its latest run, but not nearly where the NAM is. GFS would give us rain-changing-to-snow situation with a couple of inches.
Snow meter outta be interesting this week…. Kevin, you got a link to the GFS model you just mentioned?
Here’s Wednesday’s storm at its peak for us on the latest GFS:
http://tinyurl.com/a2e44dc
This is pretty late Wednesday evening, 10 p.m. or so (Thursday 3Z)
GFS also shows some snow on us next Saturday with a low forming offshore and a disturbance diving pretty deep to the south.
Deb in Fairlawn. Look at the new thread for an elevation site I posted this morning.