Some snow showers next few days
The newly redesigned roanoke.com website was launched on Wednesday. You will NOT find the Weather Journal blog linked on the left side with the rest of the blogs … instead, the link is parked in the upper right corner of every page of roanoke.com. Thanks for many readers’ comments during the redesign process for making this happen!
Bands of light snow and rain showers are moving into western Virginia on this Wednesday evening with an upper-air disturbance rotating around the low over the Great Lakes. This is the kickoff for about 4 days worth of snow showers and squalls in West Virginia’s mountains and the ridges west of I-77 in Virginia, occasionally squirting eastward into other areas of western Virginia, as northwest winds lift moisture up and over the higher terrain. Total accumulations may top a foot or more in some of those favored snow belt areas of eastern West Virginia and the Mount Rogers area of Virginia by the weekend, with lesser amounts in lower elevations. We are late enough in the season that even an unseasonably cold air mass may not be able to hold temperatures in for all snow or for accumulations at lower elevations through the entire day. The best chance of seeing a random ground-whitening snow burst in the New River Valley will be at night or during the morning, while some of the snow showers might even become mixed with rain in the afternoons if they reach the Roanoke Valley and eastward, where partly cloudy skies may allow highs to reach the 40s. As of now, it does not appear a disturbance this weekend will do much more than enhance the snow showers a little more and possibly spread them eastward for a bit.
Next week could be a different matter, as a low-pressure system for the central U.S. is expected to track eastward with cold air held in place throughout the East. The map at left shows the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s best guess on where the low may be by Wednesday morning, having tracked eastward across North Carolina. That’s a pretty solid track for significant snowfall in our region, given the cold air, which does appear likely to be supportive. Some forecast model runs have blown this low up into a powerful storm just off the East Coast. That may actually not be the best thing for Southwest Virginia snow lovers yearning for a sizeable snow, as there would be chance the storm’s energy jumps over us from inland to the coast and leaves our region with not much. It’s too far out to really get a grip on details, but it does appear likely that some kind of fairly organized storm system will move from the central U.S. to the East Coast in the early to middle part of next week, with cold air still locked in by high pressure blocking to the north. We’re getting late enough in the season that any significant snow chance could be the last, best one for many months to come for many locations below about 3,000 feet in our region.
February 27, 2013 - 8:16 PM
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WOW.. so I’m headed into the favored upslope region at the perfect upslope time?! I couldn’t be happier. Gonna get my snow fix for the year! About the “Weather Journal Nation”…. let’s make t-shirts!
In for the night in Vancouver and the hotel in-room wi-fi works!
Long day tomorrow as we go from Vancouver to Houston Bush (IAH) to home sweet home. Won’t have much time to view the models til late.
This weekend’s event will be a light shot of snow with less than 2″ except in the higher elevations of the mountains.
As for next week, I am lowering expectations for a major event or historic “BIG UN” and believe that the March 6 event will brush the coast from NC to MA with 2-4″ and may well miss everything west of I-95.
After next week, that’s it folks. With greater confidence after March 10, I will be able to say GOSL…Game on Spring Lovers
I still think you may be missing the west-to-east low track across the central and eastern U.S. and concentrating too much on the coastal, Quagmire.
Forgive me I don’t know the rules about links, but how about stickers?
http://www.makestickers.com/DesignReorder.aspx?SKU=90&DN=130227200001&cid=sfv2lvipahalef1d1raggpya
I just added a note up top about Weather Journal being linked in the upper right corner of every page of roanoke.com
Curious KM… how’d you (or should I say Weather Journal Nation) get preferential treatment and be put front and center on the Times website? I’m assuming because of the popularity and sheer number of posts on your blog?? If so, congratulations!
I was not on any of the panels that redesigned the site, so I don’t know all the inner workings. But I do know that when there was a request for feedback on certain elements of the blogs and commenting during the redesign process, Weather Journal commenters and followers turned out in droves. So YOU are the reason it is anchored in the upper right!
Actually saw some comments in the weather forums on Accuweather discussing the fact that the March 6-7 is not a Miller A (tracking W to E across the central U.S. as KM noted), but some folks on the forums said not to worry because there is a better chance for a Miller A around March 11-12. You just can’t make this stuff up!. It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad. Give it up, there are no significant storms happening this winter for our area. But, get out there, grab your yardstick, head to Quinwood or Whitetop, and bask in the upslope this weekend. There is good snow to be found in the hills, but let’s put to bed any talk of a widespread snow event happening in winter 2012-13.
Brian in Goodview – Cool design!
Right now, I think we might get a 2-4-inch snow out of next week. MIGHT. That probably doesn’t qualify for your definition of “significant” Mike. And it probably won’t break your 5-hour barrier, either.
Some others might be pleased with a 2-4-inch snow, though, if it happens.
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So far not impressed with March 11-12 scenario, thinking it goes west of us. Central U.S. seems to be the place to be this year to get in the deep snow side of these big lows.
Kevin:
Re #7, commenters’ and followers’ voices were heard because they all know the same thing: Your weather comments and predictions are consistently accurate, informative, and reliable, year in, year out. And the fact that we don’t have to read, or listen to, any inane advertisements while reading your blog, well, that’s a bonus.
VZBBG: Thanks for the kind words. (Though you haven’t seen my snow meter score for Blacksburg this year, have you?)
It is more than a bit humbling to see what Weather Journal has become in terms of the following and the commenters from the early days. Everyone who visits the site, whether they comment or not, is appreciated.
Goodview Brian – love WJN!
The main page on roanoke.com isn’t working very well tonight. I’m still struggling to adjust to the changes on the site – like the furniture has been rearranged.
I’m anxious to get whatever precip we get next week over with and move into spring. So are my tulips.
2 years’ difference in the Texas Panhandle.
http://ow.ly/i/1B35K/original
Quinwood, WVa., is already at 3 inches of snow.
Thanks Kevin for all of that Arkansas information!
What on earth are the models seeing for March 11-12?!?!?!?!?!
Kevin, I understand you were just giving an educated prediction, but for everyone else, why are we panicking about the 6-7 event already?! There could still be 6-8 inches or more…it’s still a week out! Model trends are looking better. GFS has finally caught on! Track needs to be 50 more miles to the west…I’m anxious to see the Euro run!
These snowstorms in the Plains and surrounding heartland areas are incredibly beneficial. Thanks for showing that link about the Texas panhandle, KM. Although most Americans may not notice it, the resulting increased moisture will hopefully provide much better crop yields for this spring and summer than what was being predicted around New Year’s. Instead of lowering food prices, the improved crops (if they do indeed result) will prevent a big hike in food prices.
I expect to be off the blog quite a bit tomorrow myself. I’ll post your comments from time to time though.
Light rain changed over to snow in the last 10 mins with a downtown bank reading of 35 degrees. I’ve got my fingers crossed for one last hurrah before spring.
And I’ve got my fingers crossed you somehow squeeze out an inch over there, Snow Lover Bburg, so I don’t blow a 7th consecutive week on the snow meter!
Looks like Kelly Hoge and fellow Gardeners are getting a snow shower now. C’mon snow!! Come visit Blacksburg!
The new Euro run just came out with some big snow totals (12″+) in our area next week.
Wow, oz Euro shows 12-18 ” for central Virginia on March 6! GFS is now on board with a big storm, but is a little far south. DT says the GFS always does this with coastal storms. So things have definitely trended well overnight! Still long way to go, keep the fingers crossed!
We had 1/2″ overnight on the grass, and 31 degrees. Eggggzackly what the NWS predicted.
Light snow/flurries here and 33.8*.
34.5* with lonely snowflakes, but great visibility. Peaks of Otter are visible.
Brian: I love the sticker design. I would love to see it on a tee shirt or sweatshirt!
Bring on the snow next week. Even if it is only 2″, it is better than none.
HokieTrax: I am also having trouble with the new design. I find it much harder to access what I am used to being able to see. I also find the lighter font much harder for my older eyes to see and read.
What a surprise to wake up to the ground covered with snow and light snowflakes falling from the sky. I would say we have about 1/4 inch of snow and the temp is 29. There is a light breeze coming from the northwest.
Re:VZBBG comment 11 & KM #12, I totally agree… plus, even for
those of us who seldom or never post, you all seem almost like old
friends, with the regulars’ personalities peeking out of the comments,
a welcome lightheartedness in an often too serious world of media.
Checking the weather forecast is way more fun since discovering this
blog last year.
We picked up 0.2″ at the house, about what I was expecting. Perhaps a tad more in Blacksburg, but it looked pretty similar this morning.
European model on March 5-6 storm:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
GFS is similar but more south and out to sea.
If Euro hangs onto something like this a few more runs, it’s gonna be an anxious weekend for snow lovers.
I won’t be on here much commenting or updating during the day. Will update comments from time to time. Back this evening.
Awoke to a few snow flurries and a light dusting on the cars and roofs. Ground was bare. Left for work at 6:30, my wife left sometime after 7 and said there was nearly an inch on the ground and road. She drove 2 miles and ran out of it. Abingdon has a dusting and it continues to snow but not heavily. Staying in the 30′s through Sunday with more of the same. That Euro model concerns me with that warm nose of air over far SW VA. May end up being a disappointment for the far western counties till the cold air from KY and TN gets here and turns us back to snow.
I agree, Caroyln in B’burg – I’ve been perusing Mr. Myatt’s blog for most of this year, and really love everyone’s comments, and found this to be the source for the most accurate info in our area and such a rich source of knowledge! This is like a drug fix for weather addicts! I think my addiction an inherited gene passed from father to daughter in my family.
Love a good thunderstorm, snowstorm, weather in any form! Light dusting on the ground & flurries in C’burg this morning when I left home at 7:30, little snow pellets (beads?) here in Radford when I arrived at work at 8am, cloudy, clear and breezy here in Radford now.
Thank you to Herbal Tee, Carolyn and VZBBG for your kind comments. I agree with you 100%. I always have to get my Morning Weather Blog fix first thing.
I will have to say that I did enjoy that brief period of beautiful sunshine yesterday! I’m starting to follow the next week storm a little more closely now. Looks like things are starting to trend in a good way for us in the Roanoke area. Funny thing is that my 9 yr old is now hoping for no more missed days from school b/c they are going to have to take part of her spring break for make up days.
Ah, differing hopes in the Nurse Snow household! Funny. At least one of you will get your wish. I kinda think it will be you, Shanon.
OMG Here we go again, Its a week away and all is hearing now is another storm going to bring protential big amounts of snow to the region. We get all pumped up, clean out all the stores of bread , milk, eggs. Fill up all the cars and get plenty of gas for the generators and then the day of the storm, OH, my bad, the temps jUst weren’t right, or the moisture just didnt get in close enough to us. I love snow but so tried of listening to the not so sure forecasts, getting all pumped up for the snow and then poof same ole same ole. Nothing or maybe a few flurries Whoopee. COME ON SPRING !!!
It appears that the models are not taking into account how many bloggers have declared winter is over, they are done with winter this year. Maybe that is local data that gets put into the models as the system gets closer.
Last day of meteorological winter. Why did this winter turn out the way it did? I hope Kevin and others come on here either in the next few days and give their opinions, or in 2 or 3 weeks when just about everyone has thrown in the towel and/or stuck the fork in winter. I have my own thoughts, which may contain flaws.
I think the number one reason that we never had a big snowstorm or even a widespread 6+-incher in SW Virginia (yet, anyway …. No predictions by me about next week) is the combination of the oscillations. The NAO never became negative in a big way, so there were practically no Greenland Blocks. And when the NAO did become negative (minus 1) for a while in mid-December (and recently, since February 20th), the PNA was very negative which caused the weather to be generally cold out west and warm here in the east. Just when the PNA stopped becoming a hindrance in late December, the NAO returned to neutral, too. Throw in the MJO = Madden Julian thing (which I think determines the likelihood of polar air to either remain near the North Pole or make frequent incursions to the lower latitudes) rarely helped out, either, and we had what we had.
Even though it had no big snows, the 2nd half of meteorological winter was much closer to being normal for temps than the first half, although it certainly was not a cold one, either.
Today’s polar view map shows a general return to more “normal” or at least usual appearance. The bad news is that the band of yellow air in the NE Atlantic Ocean is shrinking rather than getting closer to Iceland. There is a purplish polar vortex on the Canadian side again, but it is still far north, north of Hudson Bay. If what WDBJ7 has been showing on its weathercasts since yesterday morning happens, this vortex will intensify over the next few days and come much further south. In fact, there is a weak trough over the East right now, with light blue colors while the western U.S. is in green (milder).
Kevin and friends – I was raised in Roanoke, spent most of my adulthood, and last year moved to the DC area where we’ve had NO snow. Do you think we’ll get anything from next week’s storm? Pretty please?
Today’s values for the 3 major oscillations, in alphabetical order, with the outlook for the next 4 or 5 days for each of them.
AO (Arctic Oscillation): About -1.4, and going DOWN to at least -3, possibly -3.5 or even -4!! The AO only got below -3 once this winter, about 12-10-12, and as low as -3.0 one other time, 12-22/23-12.
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation): About minus 0.4, going DOWN to about -1.0 or even -1.2.
PNA (Pacific North American pattern): + 1.0, staying level for another day or two, then receding to +0.5 or so by the 5th {then dropping some more for a couple of more days but remaining +, then after March 10th, dropping to negative numbers (a possible ridge in the East, but that probability has low correlation)}.
If these levels had occurred more often at the same time and for extended periods this winter, we certainly would have had more cold and almost certainly more snow.
I know we are all wanting some sorta of winter storm. Personally once March hits I am ready for 60 degree weather. However, I would like at least one exciting storm… here in Harrisonburg we’ve seen zero snow for two years. We had one event after Christmas but that was it. My question is will this next potential snow event actually make it’s way far enough north to impact our area? I know it’s to far out but with it’s potential course could there be any storm affects felt here?
Hey Kevin:
What is a Miller A? Also, when did the Weather Service start naming winter storms? Is it my imagination or did they start in the middle of the alphabet?
Thanks for the information.
Channel 13 (Lyndsay Tapases) just came out with a forecast for Roanoke for tomorrow that is in marked disagreement with what the NWS has (49*, same as top of this page) and 48 by WDBJ7. WSET-13 is predicting 44. I have a feeling that Lyndsay will end up being right or closer to actual. These clouds are hanging tough with lots of NW wind earlier today and also tomorrow, too.
Best I can cackulate, I’ve had 16″ of snow sofar, give or take 1/2″.
Dear FOF-s
(friends of flakes)
Tue 5th is the day to watch now..
System coming in from mid-upper Mississippi
Valley..Southern Ill – Western Tenn could
bring a bit of snow..
Right now Ga-Sc look to be central to
highest moisture potentials on the models..
will have to watch to see where and whenits northward bend
starts to happen…could be 3 or 4 inches in western Carolina.
Old Farmers Almanac
Mar 1-2: Sunny, warm;
Was 33 this morning,43 when i arrived home.Its 41 now.Just checked the Snowshoe Mtn. web cam and it is snowing very hard.If you want to see real snow go up there this weekend.Jenny where abouts are you in Northern Va.?I`m in Marshall Fauquier County.
Lyndsay T of “13″ is also forecasting a lower high temp for Hokieburg tomorrow. NWS forecasts high of 43*, WDBJ7 forecasts 42, but Lyndsay thinks 39 will be the high.
Dana: The National Weather Service does NOT name winter storms. The Weather Channel does. They did start with A way back in November. Here is a column I wrote about it:
http://ww2.roanoke.com/weather/wb/315158/
Speaking of “A” — Miller A low refers to one forming in or near the Gulf Coast as two branches of the jet stream join forces or “phase”, and then the low moves up the East Coast. Miller A’s cause most of our region’s largest snowstorms historically — though having a Miller A isn’t a guarantee of a big snowstorm.
Just a note. I was out on the back deck at work, in Christiansburg around 4:30 and little flakes of snow were falling. If you had the opportunity to see them as they landed on something cold enough to not melt them, you could see the beautiful designs that they held. Teeny, tiny flakes barely visible but simply gorgeous patterns.
Loved the pivot on the “A” thing Kev. You runnin’ for office?
I’m in the Herndon area – and in my previous post meant to say that I was raised in Roanoke, lived in Charlottesville for 15 years, and just moved up here 18 months ago. It’s been so depressing – we’ve had 1.5 INCHES of snow this winter. And now it’s looking like Tuesday’s storm could go well south of us
Thoughts?
Kevin,
Looking 2 the euro…are we 2 far west in swva for this being a BIG snow for us?
What a long day in the sky. Looks like the Euro and its ensembles are going for the big finale July 4 fireworks show with next week. It’s all coming together slowly but surely. Judging by the tailwinds we had today coming from Vancouver to Houston then Newport News, whatever energy is coming from the northern Pacific will have no trouble coming east and interacting with the newly formed “Pineapple Express.”
Next week’s event has my full attention now. Will update QWC Friday.
It’s Miller time! Miller A that is…
Sammy Snowman: You’re going to have to refresh my memory. Other than the odd streaks of Bedford County and a few other places that missed out on the Jan. 17 snow, I don’t remember a single time this winter there was a predicted sizeable snow for Southwest Virginia that missed. What I remember is about a dozen or more weak and/or borderline winter weather events, mostly mixed muck kinda stuff. If you live in Roanoke, you even got a bonus 3-5-inch snow you weren’t supposed to get on Feb. 6-7. Just sayin’ ….
Both the 0Z and 12Z Euro runs would deliver significant snow to Southwest Virginia. The 0Z delivered a major 12+ snowstorm, the 12Z something less.The GFS is still well south and east, but I’m seriously doubting a low of that magnitude would simply drift east out to sea. I wouldn’t get too caught up in specifics yet, there is much run to run variation. What is important now is that almost all of the runs of the various models are showing a strong low intensifying somewhere in the Southeast and ample cold air blocked into our region. Also, remember, there is a low tracking all the way from Montana to the southeast U.S. that will spread snow, it’s not solely about where the coastal low intensifies and tracks.
There are ways next week’s storm can miss us entirely. There are ways it can deliver a historic hit of widespread 12+ snowfall. The widest range of possible solutions is something in between.
Jenny: I know DC area snow fans are for more desperate than even SW Virginia, having missed last Feb. 19 and this year’s Jan. 17 systems. You’re far from out of play yet on next week’s storm. Can’t guarantee you’ll get any snow yet, but too early to bail out saying it’ll stay south and east, Models often come north and west on storms of this nature. We’ll see..
Joe- thanks for tonight’s chuckle – “FOF” Friends of flakes. Too Cute!
Quagmire – stop the press! You are the first person I have heard calling for a Miller A ??? I don’t see the low forming in the Gulf. It is coming across the souther plains. A Miller A needs to form in the Gulf and then ride across the panhandle of Florida, track across Southern GA, and then ride the eastern seaboard. If this storm is a Miller A, then it certainly is game on for 1-2 feet easy. This Miller A stuff is crazy talk! Hope you are right though.
Hey, joe, here is another compliment, although it is at least two days late. I got a big kick out of the link you provided about the “Dueling Banj ….er, TV weathermen.” If you find out what happens if that case actually goes to court, I would love to hear the outcome.
Last night’s Euro was pretty close to a Miller A, with a strong low intensifying in Georgia and rolling up the East Coast. You get into some semantics about exactly where the split-stream energy has to come together and where the low has to track to be a Miller A.
I think a Miller A is in the envelope of possibilities … but I’m leaning more to an offshore Carolinas intensifying coastal low after an inland track from the northern Rockies to the Tennessee Valley and eastward.
Some definitions I’ve seen might even count that as a Miller A.
I agree Leo Lady – the pale grey text has got to go. It’s really tiring after awhile to read it. I’m guessing that a big chunk of the roanoke.com readership are Boomers too, like me. At least I know where to find Weather Journal Nation on the site. The rest of it will take a while.
Cold and windy in Hokieburg and random snow flakes blowing around tonight. If it is going to have to snow this coming week, it just better be a good one. If I am going to have to be inconvenieced, let’s make it big! Enough of the wimp snows…or just move it all to Jared in Greene.
SNOW SNOW &MORE SNOW Sounds like a broken record can SPRING SPRING be that far away