Spotty ice Tues AM (11:45 PM update)
UPDATE 11:45 AM: It appears from radar/model trends that precipitation will move into Southwest Virginia near sunrise on Tuesday. With clear skies in the evening, some temperatures have dropped a bit lower than forecasts. Some bounce upward may occur with the onset of cloud cover, but it may have fallen just enough for a bit more widespread sleet and ice in the morning hours. Temperatures should still rise above freezing in most places by mid to late morning. END UPDATE
A winter storm warning has been posted late tonight and 
Tuesday for Floyd and Carroll counties, where a quarter inch of glaze ice is possible as sleet and freezing rain move in. Winter weather advisories are up for the remainder of our region as some sleet will change to spotty ice and then rain on Tuesday.
If you’ve lived in Southwest Virginia for several years, you know by now that the high terrain of Floyd and Carroll counties, often extending into the Bent Mountain area of extreme southern Roanoke County, is very often the bullseye for ice storms. As recently as Dec. 26, much of this area was suffering power outages and was iced in for days when most of the rest of Southwest Virginia experienced what was mainly just a nuisance mixed precipitation event. The Blue Ridge widens into more of a plateau in that region, rather than a sharp ridgeline, so it can be harder to sweep cold air away as it clings to the rolling and raised terrain, somewhat protected from southerly winds by even higher mountains to the south and southwest. It’s also susceptible 
to the easterly upslope winds lifting additional moisture, providing cooling with the lift even when the winds are blowing out of a “warm” southeast angle, and trapping cold air against the east side of the Blue Ridge even when it begins to be scoured out around it. It’s also just south enough to experience thicker moisture earlier in most events than locations farther north, which may have more time to warm above freezing before the bulk of the precipitation arrives. For these reasons, Floyd and Carroll counties have been placed under a winter storm warning for heavy ice, though even at that, it appears to be a low-end warning with a quarter-inch of ice accretion – the bottom boundary for an ice-inspired winter storm warning – expected in some spots. The National Weather Service ice accretion forecast map (scroll down on this link) shows exactly how spotty the icing early Tuesday morning is expected to be, with some spots like the floor of the Roanoke Valley seeing little or no appreciable ice and some higher elevations seeing a tenth or more of ice.
Precipitation will begin moving into the region in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, likely as a mix of rain, freezing rain and sleet, as evaporational cooling (precipitation drying and evaporating in dry layers of the atmosphere aloft, using heat in the evaporation process, and thereby cooling the air) brings temperatures to the 30-34 degree range across most of Southwest Virginia. The cooling may be deep enough to change all precipitation to sleet for a while at any location, allowing some sleet accumulation, maybe even a few wet snowflakes for a short time. Once warming aloft sweeping ahead of the low tracking well to our northwest (full extent of its effects on mulitple states listed here) takes hold in the upper layers, all precipitation will change to rain or freezing rain, depending on surface temperatures at specific locations. Slow warming should allow almost all locations to be rain by late morning – perhaps excluding a few stubborn iced-in spots on the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke and others where cold air becomes trapped between ridges north and west of Roanoke. Rainfall totals near an inch are expected across most of our region.
A windy, unseasonably cold regime with periodic snow showers – several days of snow squalls piling up inches in West Virginia’s high terrain, bleeding into some of the typical “snow belts” in the 3,500+ elevations of Virginia along the West Virginia border and west of I-77 – sets in late Wednesday through the weekend. There is some chance a stronger low tracks to our south by the middle of next week, with colder air remaining in place. It’s too far out to put much stock in, obviously, but the setup is favorable enough for a winter storm that it can’t be completely ignored, either.
February 25, 2013 - 5:34 PM
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This has certainly taken a turn for the worse. I really hope a warm nose hits Carroll and this ice storm is a bust. Current temp 37º with a dew point of 22º. As my parents used to say, “a bad air out there today”.
Temp going down in a hurry, 33º here now.
Didn’t see this coming. Looks like the Doppler and the Plateau People will be seeing some good ice accumulations. Maybe more down NC way.
This afternoon’s Euro was still showing the March 6-7 threat albeit at the present run is still a little east. Still have a hunch.
Floyd is that far away. Any chance this is more widespread?
Is NOT that far away
Quags: You’re looking too hard for a coastal storm. The 12Z Euro depicted what could be a significant overrunning snowfall event, akin to Jan. 29-30, 2010. Probably won’t happen that way, but it brings a low all the way out of the southern Plains eastward across the South. I even hyperlinked a map above.
The weather channel says a wintry mix especially I’m the afternoon huh? Haha
Always a chance, David, but there’s just some geographic factors that tend to make the Blue Ridge plateau area in Floyd County and nearby areas more susceptible to heavy ice than surrounding areas.
For Roanoke/Salem, I think the biggest chance of having something more than forecast on Tuesday morning would be if the sleet portion of the storm is heavier and longer lasting than expected, or becomes mixes with more snow than expected. It’s going to be difficult at the floor of the Roanoke Valley to hold it 32 or below for very long.
Clear and dropped to 34 already and still falling…
Very clear. 36 degrees. Kevin, if it stays clear longer tonight, doesn’t that help it to be more snow than ice? In other words, the temps would drop quicker thus colder in all layers of the atmosphere?
The warmer air is moving in aloft, not at the surface, at first. We’ve cleared off some in the Roanoke/New River valleys, so temperatures may jump up some once the clouds return. That said, I think you may start mix or even sleet in those areas rather than plain rain. Depends on just how thick that warm layer is by then, and how cold it is at the surface, and how thick the surface freezing layer is IF there is one.
If you live on Bent Mountain in Roanoke County, I would consider yourself under a winter storm warning for ice anytime Floyd County is. The weather service probably isn’t going to fire a warning for all of Roanoke County/ Roanoke city/Salem when 95% of the region’s most populous locality grouping won’t be affected as strongly as you will be on Bent Mountain. The ice isn’t going to stop at the county line sign up there.
Pistol Pete: It can help sometimes help early on increase chances of snow/sleet vs. rain/freezing rain if the clear skies last until not long before the precipitation starts, but it won’t do much to stop the warm air aloft flowing in around the low.
ice moon outside!
oops – I mean nice moon!
I’m already 32 at my location just south of Roanoke, 1400 feet. Even Roanoke Regional Airport is down to 37. Wondering if those temps bounce upward a few degrees when clouds return later tonight. Seen that happen a lot in similar situations. If those kind of temperatures persist until precipitation arrival, concern for at least some morning ice would increase in lower elevations.
Clear and down to 29º now. I hope the clouds bring up the temp and the warm nose hits here. If not there’s going to be a lot of freezing rain I’m afraid.
27 with 64% humidity with a full moon and calm winds.
Generator is ready and we have the needed milk, eggs and bread. Need to pull my head lamp out – just in case. Wood racks are topped off so we are prepared.
Would the snow chance increase as well Kevin?
Kevin, when do you expect the precipitation to start?
My animals are all acting pretty nutty….which is always an indicator of icky weather!
Checking the 7 p.m. balloon sounding from Blacksburg … already a nose of above-freezing temperatures from 1 to 3 km. Wet-bulb temperatures suggest if the precip began right at that time it would be snow, but that warm nose probably changes things through the night.
Precip start is between 4 and 7 a.m. for Roanoke area. Shift that back 2 hours for I-77 and Va border areas. That’s about as exact as I’m willing to go at this point.
Kevin, that is the most concise explanation I have ever seen for the difference in weather in Floyd. EXCELLENT!
Rest up Kevin the morning looks to be busy:-)
Already 33 with dewpoint at 21 here in Goodview
Precip. sure looks a long way off to start as early as predicted i think this will help unless it takes off overnight…
Mr. Griggs you weren’t perchance at Tanglewood mall this evening about 8:20 were you? Just wondering if you were then I walked right by you
I sure do hope that it clouds up and warms up a bit fairly soon around here. Beautiful “Full Snow Moon” was out over downtown Roanoke (from my house) earlier, now over Sugar Loaf Mountain.
“7″ forecasted a low of 33* at RRA early tomorrow, and that is what I am at now. wunderground website shows LOTS of temps nearby now under freezing, such as 30* at Cresthill, which is just east of 419 and south of SW Plaza (intersection of Grandin and 419). Also 29* at Penn Forest, probably fairly close to Cave Spring Corner. And 27.9 and 27.3 at the two Bent Mountain locations. Elliston? 28.7* I bet not only WDBJ7 but just about all the TV stations as well as NWS and TWC badly missed the much colder than forecasted high of 42* for today in ROA. Are we about to have another bad forecast? I hope that things don’t continue the way they have developed concerning the temps.
It definitely feels cold with a raw East wind.
Kevin, hows all this panning out for marion? Ice..lots of it?..rain?
Smyth County is going to get a lot of wind out this — high wind warning. Often happens in those counties just west of I-77 with a low passing to the northwest — southeast winds breaking against the ridge. As far are precip, same close call as everyone else, better chance of ice in eastern part of the county.
John in HIllsville — checkout my facebook page Blue Ridge Weather — been calling for warning ice in Floyd/Carroll Counties for several days now! Hope you enjoy it can find it useful.
Thanks Kevin..in Atkins to be exact….seems like Smyth County is the borderline county for NWS out of Blacksburg sometimes on the warnings…kinda gotten used to all the wind storms.
Kevin, would you mind giving a prognosis for the Covington/Clifton Forge area?
I’m supposed to be there for a clinical at 7AM tomorrow, and I’m beginning to wonder how realistic that is going to be.
31.6* with a dew point of 22.6 on my PWS in SW City. Hasn’t budged up or down in a while.
No, Randy, not me. I was out earlier this evening, but at a Kroger near Lewis Gale (the middle of 419, instead of the SE end of Electric Road). By 8:20 I was back here watching the opening scenes of The Spy Who Loved Me!
Continued NON-WEATHER stuff. Is anyone else running into difficulty sending an e-mail right now? I use g-mail via Cox. Had to try one e-mail three times before it went through, and now I cannot send another one. Keep getting a message “a server error occurred and your e-mail was not sent.”
Hey, has anyone started to cloud up yet? If so, please report in here if you would, and then tell us an hour or two later if your temp has started to rise. TYVM. Temp here is 32* now …… boo.
Already down to 33 where I’m at downtown. Not good.
Kevin of Turkeycock Mtn.I agree with you 100 percent.Just checked the national radar and the moisture is way down south.Unless it speeds up don`t see it getting anywhere close to me until the late morning,or early afternoon.Temp down to a cold 27 here now.Been dropping fast tonight.
Hey Soozinne in Floyd – Howdy Neighbor just around the block! LOL! The Man of the House mentioned this morning that our animals were acting a little bizarre and he thought we would be getting some weather. I noticed some acting weird this afternoon too. Maybe it is just something in the neighborhood. How were the kids acting today?
It is down to 26 and I just walked the dogs. Most of the sky was clear but the clouds were racing out of the south/southwest across the moon. Time to shut down for the night. Hope tomorrow is not too bad. I will check in if I can. Be careful out there in the morning hours.
When I still lived in Smyth County, I can remember a horrific icing event that coated Walker Mtn which is between Marion and Rich Valley. It was gorgeous to look at, but ended up creating utter devastation to the trees. I don’t remember the year that happened right off hand though.
It is cold with clear skies here at the present. Gorgeous moon outside!
Halo moon, roads freshly brined, temps on the edge. Stay tuned for another episode of SWVA Weather 2013. Kind of like Downton Abbey…you know the cast of characters and the location but not quite sure what the plot will bring.
Dopp Carol – glad you are prepared for this one! Looks like the FloydZone could get interesting.
Ice storm warnings out now
For Doug Griggs: 31.1* with thin clouds starting to move in. Still mostly clear, though. -SW Roanoke City.
No changed to NWS-Blacksburg’s winter advisories/warnings so far:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
28 degrees at my location near Alleghany Springs in southeastern Montgomery County, elevation 1615 feet.
Temp at my house just went from 31 to 32.
I posted this in error to the prev page…
Hope yall can get a chuckle out of it.
“You blew the forecast…”
“No…YOU blew the forecast!”
..
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/13/weatherman-lawsuit.html
boy..I’d really like to have a peek at those allegations.
Believable? Two most recent NAM runs are in good agreement for ice in ROA as well as the GFS.
http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/9042/e2c4ce8c05924ba9a4def17.png
Here is the Hourly Forecast for Roanoke City zip 24017, updated at 9pm.
10pm, mostly clear, 33. 11:00 to 1am: 32, partly cloudy. 2am: 34, mostly cloudy. 3am: 35, C (= “Cloudy,” from now on in this comment). 4am: 35, few showers, 30% POP.
5am: 34, few showers, 40% POP. 6am: (music, please) 31, light wintry mix, 50% POP. (BOOO! I hope that the precip holds off for another 90 minutes).7am: 30! L.w.m. 60%. 8am: 31, L.w.m., 60%. Things finally improve according to this forecast as early as 9:00: 33, Rain, 90% POP. 10 and 11am. 35, 100% rain. But that is not the end to the falling temps! 34 at noon, 33 at 1pm, 100% POP. Then one more warm-up.
What really strikes my eye is all the temperature reversals. Warm-up early today from upper 20s at dawn to low 40s, now a cooling off, then a supposed warm-up at 2 and 3 am. Then yet another warm-up for a few hours. Then yet another cooling off about 6 AM. Then another warmup. If this somehow verifies it will be amazing.
Just checked wunderground for temps since I’m still lagging in getting my own PWC set up. Closest to my house is the Cresthill station and it is reporting 29.8* with a dewpoint of 10 and pressure of 28.88. Humidity 43%. I find it interesting that it also says we have a 100% chance of snow then rain as it warms.
Temperature dropped like a rock to 25 near Lexington, but now it has leveled out.
Interesting though that the Lost Mountain station, which should be right off of 12 O’clock knob is showing 39.7* and Cresthill which is LOWER in elevation by about 700ft is showing 29.8* I didn’t expect to see a 10* difference like that.
Zach I checked out your page before nice work!
Down to 28º with high clouds moving in. I can still see the moon through the thin clouds but not the stars. I hope I wake up to 34º and only rani but I’m not counting on it.
28.7 with a dewpoint of 22.1 in Goodview. Very thin layer of clouds but moon still very visible. My dad has 25.5 in Jordantown.
29* and calm winds here in Woodlawn. Gotta drive down Fancy Gap mountain to work in Mt Airy in the am. Might be tricky but Hwy 52 a lot better than I-77…
Thanks mucho, Ben G. I too have noticed quite a few high, relatively thin clouds moving in. Can still see the moon in the SSE, but can only see one star (or maybe it is a planet). Temp has edged UP a silly half-degree, to 32.5*. I don’t care …. I gladly accept it. The downward temp trend has stopped, at least briefly. Jeff H on Fox 21/27 thinks the precip will arrive in ROA between 6 and 7:30. I vote for 7:30!!
Kevin of turkeycock where do you get the ice storm warnings from?
I just looked at the 500mb polar view. The biggest vortex has stopped migrating toward the Russian side, and there is even a “finger” of off-purple air seeping southward in northern Canada. Seems to be a weak 50-50 low near Newfoundland. Warm air again surging north of Scotland, still east of even Iceland. So no block. I will have more to say about that on Thursday afternoon, the last day of meteorological winter. No imminent sign of an Arctic outbreak, but things don’t look awful, either.
Tried a new blog post tonight let me know what ya’ll think ! http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/02/ice-ice-baby.html
Temps are down to 28 with humidity of 79%. Can’t wait to see what morning will hold for the area. Our alert says up to inch of sleet. Could be a mess.
Jason in Salem: Can’t offer much of a prognosis beyond what it is for everywhere else — patchy rain/freezing rain/sleet. Probably a better chance of sleet accumulation or patchy ice the closer you get to Clifton Forge/Covington. Roads probably will not ice over entirely anywhere on the route, but there could be some patchy problems, especially if there’s a lot of sleet to start.
Zach: Points off for a Vanilla Ice connected to weather.
Shanon, something is very wrong with the Lost Mountain site. I say that because I have noticed that weird reading several times before, when the two Bent Mountain sites are 10 degrees lower.
Temps have edged up a bit, based on some of the sites I quoted in comment 27 at 9:01pm. I have gone up a half degree (I am still at 32.5), Cresthill has gone from just under 30* to 30.2, Penn Forest was 29, now 29.5. However, Elliston is practically unchanged, from 28.7 to 28.8. And the two Bent Mountain sites are going the other way ….. GULP!!
They are now in the 26+ range, down from 27+ at 9pm. I fear they may get another bad ice storm, hopefully not as bad as early Feb. 1998.
Temperature bobbled around 31* for a while, but has resumed dropping. Now down to 30.5* -SW Roanoke City.
VT Airport’s temperature has been bouncing between 32 and 34, the higher number when sky is reported as “overcast” and lower number when it is “mostly cloudy.” It was also 30 earlier when it was “fair.”
I think that any area with temps in the 20s now is in danger of getting quite a bit of ice (over 1/10th inch). Hopefully that will prove too drastic a worry.
Hey, Rick, Jeff Haniewicz on 21/27 showed your Wytheville area getting 0.32 inches of ice!! I hope that is way off on the high side.
I have watched 3 weathercasts by WDBJ7 and one by Fox 21/27 since 5 PM. All of them have identified southern/SE Floyd County as the area most likely to get the most ice. Buffalo Mountain, Mabry Mill, Meadows of Dan, possibly even Chateau Morrisette closer to where Route 8 crosses the BRP. And a tiny bit into extreme northern Patrick County, too.
Something to keep in mind about model output on freezing rain is that not every bit of what is modeled freezes instantly. Some of it runs off. So actual ice accretion usually trails how much freezing rain falls unless it is well below freezing, it has been below freezing for days and rain remains on the light side of moderate.
Obviously the colder it is, the more of what falls will freeze on exposed objects.
Thanks again, Ben G. But go out there and root for your thermometer to start showing higher temps!
Blow on it if you have to …..
Thanks for all the wonderful info this evening, KM. From the Floyd County and Bent Mountain plateau, to your knowledge about ice accretion. I may be an ancient 61 years old and witnessed well over 70 (100?) snowstorms, but ice is one thing that I gratefully have very little experience with.
NWS fcsts say precip beginning after midnight …
Pretty open ended..since I dont know how
many hours constitutes an accurate fcst,
I will say that since the precip is struggling
to get started in Greenville SC (PLUS 3c)
and Charlotte (plus 4c)
I think itll be much closer to daybreak than midnight
for a NRV ROA start…
Time (and Feb) “March”es on
Agree, Joe. I said 4 to 7 a.m. earlier. Leaning more toward the 6-7 a.m. side of things now. May even post a short update on it.
Definitely not staying up to watch temperatures bob up and down. Plan to be back on by 7-7:30 a.m. or so. Just be cautious if traveling. Doesn’t look likely there will be a solid sheet ice across the region’s roads, but some patches.
Kevin, not the cleverest of title names on my part haha… maybe I should stick to Bluegrass references? At least when they get stuck in my head they are pleasant rather than obnoxious! haha
Doug in regards to the lost mountain site compared to bent mountains site. I would guess that it’s probably 1200 feet lower than bent mountains.
How about those out in giles?
No ice in Burke’s Garden this morning thank goodness. Very windy though with temps in the upper 20′s.
I got up at 5:10 and there is a freezing mist falling. Temp is 27º and with a mist like this every drop freezes.
Some 40′s in Eastern Tennessee, maybe they’ll make it in here. Carroll schools closed as expected.
The ice storm warnings are along wv line the wv side
I cannot believe it ….. I got my wish. No precip here yet. I wonder if my temp has budged at all since 11pm. I am once again at 32.5*. I hope everyone has a safe day.
Jamie, thanks for the info about the Lost Mntn site …… but I refuse to believe that even that much of a difference in elevation explains a 13 degree temp difference last night (Lost mntn was 39 while the two Bent Mntn sites were 26. And I was in low 30s. And I have seen that discrepancy several times before, too.
test
Mesoscale discussion for our area concerning freezing rain. SPC suggests most of the area will go to at or below freezing as precipitation begins to fall.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0233.html
Have been doing maintance on my station Mr. Griggs, changing batteries and routinue stuff. I was not 39* heredispute what it was showing. Always have to reset unit and not being tech inclined draws that process out. 30.* now and has been coming down sincw 4:15 AM.
26 still this morning but the humidity has gone up to 77%. Heavy winds out of the south/southeast. Low cloud cover and some light mist but that is it – for now.
You’re right Mr. Griggs, it wasn’t elevation. I’ll generally be 3* or so higher than the top of Bent Mt. and at times 10 * warmer than the valley in the mornings but never when it’s cloudy.
Launched a new thread for the morning. Precip shield is about 1-2 hours behind forecasts, but it probably won’t matter much in terms of effect, as temperatures are 2-6 degrees colder in many locations. Thanks, Ben, for putting up the SPC link, I included it in the new update.
Old folks have said to watch the wooly worm in th fall. the darker the fur the wowrse it will be. If i recall he was light @ the beginniing &black in the rear. you be the judge