Snow/sleet mix leads to winter weather advisory (10PM)
UPDATE 10 PM: Winter weather advisory now includes most of western Virginia. Snow has been falling moderately to occasionally heavily in the Roanoke Valley with some amounts nearing an inch in the higher terrain just south and southwest of the city. A mixture of sleet, snow and freezing rain is occurring throughout much of the winter weather advisory area.
Well, winter obviously isn’t over in the eastern United States. The early stages of what will become a major to historic winter storm for New England could bring a period of wintry mix to much of western Virginia on Thursday evening into Friday morning. A low-pressure system will work to our east on Thursday while another moves east over the Great Lakes. The combined energy of these two storms will blow up a tightly wound low off the New England coast that will lead to high winds and heavy snow — a true blizzard — in much of that region, with some 2 feet-plus amounts possible. Where we are, moisture streaming into enough cold, relatively dry air banked against the mountains, and rotating behind the coastal low, will likely lead to a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and perhaps even some wet snow at times on Thursday evening. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center puts most of our region in the 50+ percent probabilities of at least .01 inch of ice, while also putting us in the lower chances of at least 1 inch of snow — probably snow/sleet mix, if it occurs,more likely to the north and west of Roanoke. Some winter weather advisories will probably be issued on Thursday, and expect some slick spots Thursday evening and Friday morning.
Rain is still likely early next week. A subsequent storm system near the middle of next week may be on the right path and have enough cold air to work with to pose a winter storm risk for our region, but of course, it is still many days out. Cold weather will likely set in behind that storm, whatever it does.
February 6, 2013 - 9:56 PM
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I just looked at Allen Huffman’s polar view map, and the vortex seems to have changed slightly in two ways. First, it appears to be a bit further south, closer to the southern banks of Hudson Bay. And 2nd, more importantly, it seems to be even stronger than yesterday’s map. This could be Punxsutawney Phil’s worst prediction ever.
14th Annual NEWxSFC: Storm #3 – Call for Forecasts!
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST THU…07-FEB-13
Enter your forecast @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Details…
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/02/winter-12-13-storm-3-call-for-forecasts.html
Just looked at the teletubbies (i.e., teleconnections). Not much happening with the PNA and NAO. Fairly flat, both a tiny bit above neutral, especially the PNA. The AO is just about neutral now, is expected to go a bit negative during the next week. After that, which is the very iffy area (less than 25% chance of verifying) of 7+ days out, nearly all the red spaghetti strands show a big nosedive for the Arctic Oscillation. IF that happens, somebody somewhere in North America will get extremely cold, at least for a few days.
Boston is expecting a historic blizzard, and what does the Old Farmers Almanac say? Why do I even check this source?
Feb 7-12: A few flurries, cold.
Kevin, I am so sorry to hear about your shingles. I had them about 9 years ago and they were very painful. I will keep you in my prayers. Take it easy and do not push yourself too hard.
Guess what else has changed on A. Huffman’s polar view map? Green waters (warmer than before) are right at the edge of Iceland. If the yellow waters (warmer still) get up there, I think that means a Greenland block. This winter could explode into snow activity if that happens.
Just looked at DT page. He says that this snowstorm is a Miller B. The first three Miller B-s according to him were the big snowstorm of February 8-10, 1969. I remember that one very well. The 2nd one was the early February 1978 “great New England blizzard.” I remember that one even more. And the 3rd one was the Millenium snowstorm of Dec. 30, 2000. If this one is anywhere near as powerful as the first two, New England and perhaps other areas like upstate NY are going to get bombed with both snow and wind.
My19 just showed a snowfall model forecast map with Manchester, NH (in southern NH) getting 26+ inches and Boss-town getting 28+. Boston should shut the city down for all but emergency workers for Friday. That worked pretty darn well for the 1978 epic.
Kevin, hope you heal quickly.
Snowcover is almost gone, just the plow chunks lining both sides of our road and a few icy patches here and there. It is 38 F now, another nighttime warmup, it is getting pretty regular. It was 27 F about 3 hours ago. The frost was extreme this morning.
Whatever precipitation we get, it looks to be light.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
34.5*, completely cloudy, slight wind.
Doug G, I remember well the first two storms you mentioned–the 1978 storm closed Massachusetts for a week, and we had 36 inches fall overnight. I’m trying to get home from Boston Friday morning, and the media here are doing the apocalyptic thing. If we get delayed, I may be here a while.
32.9*. Looks exactly like snow.
That’s probably why NWS has held off on winter weather advisories for now, Brandon. NAM last night was showing only minimal precip,
Kevin: We wish you a very speedy recovery!!
Though … the HPC map does look wetter when you stretch it out to 2 days, including precip past 7 a.m. Friday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif
Local NWS forecast doesn’t really reflect increased precip on Friday morning, though.
29, overcast and what winds we have are out of the southeast. It looks like it could snow.
We had the overnight warm-up too in Pulaski County…went from 28 degrees around midnight up to 36 this morning by 7.
Our daughter in Boston has agreed to send this blog a first-hand report when the storm sweeps through her area.
European model shows 24+ inches in a circle around Boston, Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut, with a central bullseye of 30+ inches. Also, interestingly, it shows some 1-3-inch amounts in our region. Other models do not show the snow near us.
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/531507_511283562248568_38339500_n.png
Kevin, I’m wondering what you’re estimating for arrival time of any precipitation today. I’ve read afternoon, evening, and tonight on various forecasts. What are your thoughts?
Some scattered showers this afternoon, but the bulk of any significant precipitation — especially freezing/frozen — overnight and early Friday.
You may see sleet bouncing even this afternoon, but temperatures will likely be above freezing at the surface when it begins.
Seems like this is becoming a Thursday/Friday event.
I like the looks of that last map you posted Kevin! My kids are hoping for more snow. I don’t think they’ve had their fill of sleigh riding yet.
We are too far west this time for icing. Expecting some light rain today and tonight. Temps in the 40′s today and mid 30′s tonight. This one will definitely be a cold air damming situation. Is is cloudy and in the 30′s here now and it does look like snow.
We are socked in with the clouds and the temp is 32 up here on the ridge.
I’m getting to like these little clippers for the last week jest fine. Enough to keep me interested but not enough to cause major problems. Now if I could just find the button to cut off the wind machine on the backside, I’d declare them a winner. 34.9*. Think the 3 degree gay-air-ron-tee just lost today. Not a PWS out of 30 some on wunderground is showing any 40* readings.
Temps – 32 at Dopples Carol’s; 34 at wdbrand’s; 37 at Roanoke and Blacksburg; 42 at Marion and 50 at Abingdon. Can we say ‘cold air wedge’.
Temp has dropped from 38 to 37 here at work on Melrose in NW Roanoke.
Looks and feels like snow
In the 80′s again today with a southeast wind here on the Florida Keys. Stay warm,
Hey Paul down there in the Keys. Do You live there? I love snow but it seems like we tend to get cold, windy, rainy waether and not that much snow. The Keys sound pretty nice to me!!!
Really liking late next week for Winter Storm potential in our area.
Does this look like the ole blow hole classic? Gulf moisture moving NE, but staying SE of us. Clipper moving E and NE but staying NW of us.
Colder lower layers of the atmosphere have trended forecasts more toward sleet/snow mix rather than freezing rain tonight. Could be some 1-2-inch amounts in spots.
Most of the moisture will skirt off to the southeast, though, and leave mostly light amounts.
Just barely misfiring on this winter storm setup for SW Virginia.
WD: We were typing similar thoughts at the same time.
The reason this is a Miller B, not a Miller A with its Gulf Coast up the East Coast track, is the second piece of energy crossing the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes injecting into the storm north of us. That makes it a Miller B — energy inland reforming or intensifying low on coast — rather than Miller A — energy forming strong low on Gulf that moves up the coast.
We’re sorta between and betwixt here.
Winter weather advisory up for Rockbridge County.
I don’t think it got above 34 today up here. It is still chilly, damp and foggy here though it is not as foggy as earlier. Temps are now at 33 so guess the high was 34. No precip yet. Radar sort of shows some moisture going north of us and another batch going south.
Time to get my butt back in the game & re-boot QWC 2.0.
IT’S GAME ON FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND MID ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK.
DC, looks like you might have some mixed stuff right now, maybe sleet.
I think Doppler Carol and Indian Valley John are in line for substantial snow-sleet accumulation tonight in Floyd County. An inch or 2, at least.
Weather Underground has set up a blog for the storm headed for New England at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/shauntanner/comment.html?entrynum=241
Kevin Shingles, thanks very much for posting the map with the estimated snow totals at 9:44 AM today. Want to know what I find very interesting? That bullseye in the corridor between Boston and roughly Providence is EXACTLY the same area that was hardest hit during the blizzard of ’78. I have senior moments all over the place now with my short-term memory, but I can remember one of the Boston TV meteorologists back then citing a report from a very trusted weather watcher in the NE corner of Rhode Island. He took 20 measurements, and the average of them (he had massive drifting situation) was 55 inches. That was the biggest amount I ever heard of during that monster.
Mr. Griggs, you’re the tune master here. Expand on the line- “what a difference a day makes”.
Feeling better today, by the way. Meds seem to be doing their thing and I have much less soreness. I never got to an extreme stage similar to some of the shingles horror stories I’ve been hearing, just annoying burning sensation.
I just clicked on the NWS point forecast for Beantown. Adding up the forecasted snowfall amounts, NWS is predicting 20.3 inches by Saturday evening. The heart of the storm definitely looks to be after 10 PM tomorrow through 10 AM Saturday. It looks like not all that much snow will fall in B-town by 5 PM tomorrow to justify shutting the city down tomorrow. Only about 2 inches by then ….. IF THE NWS FORECAST IS CORRECT.
Same analysis for Providence shows a total of 23 inches. With about 5 on the ground by 5 PM tomorrow.
wd, I sort of remember stating that “what a difference a day makes” comment, but I cannot find it now. Can you identify the date and time?
This would be a good time to remind folks about the PING project, and the chance to participate in research about radar effectiveness of identifying precipitation near the ground. You can also learn you longitude and latitude if you don’t already know.
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/
We were getting a light sprinkling in C’burg as of ~10 minutes ago. Temps are hovering around 33 according to my car, and 32 now according to Weatherbug.
Back in the day, Gordon Barnes and Jim Ryan would have called this storm set-up for New England a ‘Snow Bomb’ …ever hear that description, Kevin?
I’ve heard of a rapidly deepening area of low pressure referred to as a “bomb” — not sure I recall the specific term “snow bomb.” Either way, it’s appropriate.
One more update: Allen Huffman’s polar view {12zeuro500mb} has changed, but this time it shows a slightly weaker vortex over Hudson’s Bay, and the waters around Iceland are blue again, not yellow or even green. Bad sign for a G-land block … I think.
Just reported on PING sleet 2.4 miles ENE Blacksburg
Very light
Sleeting in Bonsack @ 1250′
30 here and light rain. Have not seen or heard sleet – yet. We will keep an eye out.
A few icy bouncy bits mixed with light rain in downtown Roanoke.
More of a Slizzle now
Real lite drizzle here at 34*. Ain’t ready quite yet. Daughter just called from close to Callaway[3-4 miles east of Callaway] and some light rain but nothing else.
light, mixed precip – sleet and rain
Weather Channel said Boston’s biggest snowstorm on record was “only” 28″. Intresting to note that Blacksburg has had at least two storms bigger than Boston’s biggest one (32″ in March 1993, and 30″ in January 1996). I guess it should not come as too big a surprise that Blacksburg has gotten bigger storms historically than Boston, considering Blacksburg is sitting 2,000′ higher and squarely in the Appalachian’s while Boston has to battle the effects of sea level and the warming influence of the ocean. Still I would guess most folks around here would assume that Boston would produce bigger snowstorms than Blacksburg, but not so.
Boston does have a much higher annual average snowfall though, 42 inches, compared to 26 for Blacksburg. The more northern latitude buys Boston a longer snow season and greater frequency of snow events, but the biggest events aren’t that much different.
Even in this event, Boston may have some mixing issues during the early stages on Friday.
35º here with light rain, there was a little sleet mixed in earlier. Wind is light and out of the NE now. When I first checked an hour ago wind was from the SSE. It feels much colder to me though.
All area road temps are well above freezing. Coldest spots are rt. 100 at Dublin @ 37.4º and I-77 @ MP 6.6 @ 37.2º.
Headed to Snowshoe in the am – forecast leaning more toward a few inches of snow through sat am – sweet! Stay cold!
Here in Wirtz – we have some drizzle
I’ll be interested to see what the 7 p.m. balloon sounding from Blacksburg looks like with respect to temperatures above the ground. So far this is breaking down more like the rain/freezing rain/brief sleet situation originally projected, just from surface observations.
Had a low of 27 this morning.Was cloudy all day.High was 43.Now back down to 37.This is gonna be an interesting storm to watch.Kevin glad your feeling bettor today.Any snow tonight in the Allegany Highlands?
37 degrees here @ 1250′ but back to heavy sleet…starting to accumulate on back deck
Sleet/rain mix falling here. Don’t know what the temp is because I still haven’t replaced my thermometer…I know, I know!!
Crazy sleet falling in Roanoke (SW City) for the past 30+ minutes.
Lots of sleet here on Brushy Mountain in Salem!
Took a break from UVA basketball and Moonraker movie to look outside. Have 35*, but the weather has a mind of its own. Sleet, but my street seems to be OK so far. Wife of the CBOLC is about to get a phone call to come on home.
About 2 parts sleet, 1 part rain now downtown.
A switch over to light sleet about a half hour ago. Temps are holding at 30. Fire in wood stove feels good this evening.
Streets in Roanoke county are covered in ice
Dallas: Where specifically in Roanoke County? Lots of elevation differences in the county.
Sleet mixed with rain here in east central Franklin County elevation 1000 ft. Started 30 minutes ago.
7pm sounding Kevin mentioned on comment #64.
http://img209.imageshack.us/img209/7880/37f13dbaf18748d4a8c8331.png
Definitely a sleet sounding with a warm nose just below the 850mb level, then sub-freezing around 925mb, then back to around 33-34 at the surface.
As for an observation.. sleeting pretty good in Raleigh Court section of Roanoke.
A good bit of sleet here in SWCo Roanoke. It has been sleeting for about 1.5 hrs at this point. Temp seems a little cooler now also. I haven’t bought my weather station yet, so I don’t have anything thing “official” for temps LOL
Sidewalks, cars, and deck coated in ice hear in Copper Hill. Slick coat, not slush. One mile from the BRP milepost 145. Guess I made the right call to skip the Hokies game.
It’s been steadily raining and sleeting here in W Salem for a little over an hour. Roads and concrete porch are wet, and slightly slick. No snow visible at all.
Kevin, what who’ll the morning hold? Schools cancelled? Should I nix my 5am drive to lynchburg from SW city?
Not quite as warm, or as much vertical distance above freezing, on the sounding Ben G. posted as I was expecting. Wouldn’t take a lot to pull the column close enough to freezing to get some wet snow to the surface. Reports of that over 3,500 feet in North Carolina, and I would suspect around Mount Rogers/Whitetop.
I never tell people whether they should travel or not, and I don’t have any control over schools. Right now, I would say Lynchburg to Roanoke route is likely to be mostly wet with maybe some slushy patches. Temperatures along U.S. 460 probably won’t get very far below freezing, if they make it there at all. If there is some intensity of sleet and/or snow later, there may be some slushy accumulation.
Cars covered with sleet pellets as well as deck in Salem/Roanoke County…elevation 1300 feet.
34.9 with steady sleet in Goodview. Deck is slightly crunchy.
34.5* with dew point @ 32* temps been dropping roughly about a degree an hour. Sleet/rain – mostly sleet. Back deck looks like a bag of kosher salt broke open – oy vay.
I’m starting to see some pretty big snow flakes mixing in here in SWCo Roanoke. My back deck is currently covered in an icy mess.
Saw a similar report of snow mixing in on Twitter from Catawba and also one from Virginia Tech’s campus.
Once snow begins mixing itn it may not take long to get it to the surface in lots of areas.
Nurse Snow your report is the first iv`e seen tonight reporting snow.Whats your temp now?
North lakes beside northside
Snowing now in Downtown Roanoke.
Brandon beat me to it. It is snowing downtown, mixed with sleet.
ken, I saw your 7:09 AM comment when I got home about 5 PM. Sorry for not replying earlier. Are you planning to fly back? There still may be hope if you have an early morning flight and IF (PROBABLY A MUCH BIGGER IF) the airline can get a plane and crew there. One thing in your favor … Logan airport is east of city, so snow will accumulate a bit later there than a SW suburb, for example. The authorities probably won’t allow any incoming flights tomorrow, unless they are very, very early. The planes would be stuck there, possibly for 2-3 days.
Quags and joe could present a lot more informed info about that.
Sleet and large wet snow flakes mixed at my location in southeast Montgomery County near Alleghany Springs/Shawsville. Elevation 1615 feet, temperature 34.
Dc and wd, are you two still awake? Do you have some snow now? I do. Melting when it hits the driveway, but I saw a little frosting on the grass just to the side of driveway. Thanks for alerting us all, Shanon!! :>) :>)
Big wet snow flakes coming down now here beside northside high school on Roanoke county
Snowing in SW County, elev 1400
Snowing pretty good in Vinton right now. Just drove home from Salem and it was mostly sleet and rain until I got close to home. Looks like we are just on the northern end of the precipitation field.
Snow now in Bonsack…34 degrees
Mike from Marshall, sadly, I do not have a weather station set up. My app on my phone says it is 36 LOL
Snowing near Fincastle now with dusting on my car already at 36-degrees. What I wouldn’t do to be in Boston now!!!
Currently snowing in Raleigh Court and 34.7*
Snowing heavy here now, and sticking.
Snow, sleet and rain here in the Grandin area…covering grass and vehicles.
Snowing on Poor mountain, elevation 3100 feet
Kevin has retweeted my picture from the back yard for those wanting to see the snow LOL
Hi, John B!! Good to hear from you.
Different subject: sometimes folks have complained about bad forecasts here, which is perfectly acceptable (as long as someone doesn’t go off the deep end). My turn! I looked up the TWC hourly forecast for my postal zip code of 24017 (NW Roanoke City), and it is worthless. Had temps hovering between 37 and 38 throughout the night, with rain possibility. No mention of sleet or snow. Sometimes those TWC hourly forecasts are pretty good, and occasionally right on. Not tonight, however.
Currently snowing in Raleigh Court area of Roanoke. Big snowflakes. Sticking to grass areas and vehicles. Streets look okay for now. Let’s see what happens the rest of the night.
Looks like all snow here at South Salem.
Heavy sleet and a little snow in the burg. 34 degrees
Snow coming down fast in W Salem; just looked out and saw the street and vehicles covered. It’s beautiful.
Snow / sleet mix now in Copper Hill. Ground is covered.
Snow and sleet mix with temp of 34 in Blue Ridge – Elevation 1330′.
Sleet turned to snow in north county
This is going to be the “surprise” accumulating snow event of 2013 for the ROA Valley!!
Whoa.. Getting some giant flakes mixing in with all sleet.
Snowing in Craig. My husband said the bridges were covered in snow on the way home, as well as parts of our road. I didn’t expect that.
Holding steady at 39 and still sleeting with a little snow thrown in. Just came in from walking the dogs and the grass is sloshy and very slippery. Keep hearing the sleet hit the windows. Not a good night to be out! Radar shows Floyd County in the “pink”.
Big snow flakes still and starting to cover drive way here in Roanoke county ,north lakes ,beside northside
All snow in Salem by the river – big fat snowflakes. Looks like it might be starting to stick to the pavement a little.
All snow with huge flakes coming down now in downtown Roanoke. Grass and vehicles are covered.
All snow now in N. Rke County at 1150 feet.
I just looked up the HPC snowfall outlook for the 48 hours ending Sunday. Eastern Mass. still in a 70% chance of seeing 18+ inches. For some reason that was the highest inch amount that was an option.
For the record, I have about 1/2 inches of snow on the ground now. Still coming in BIG flakes. This is reminding me of the first January snow we got this year Kevin.
Snowing moderately now and temp down to 34!
In the four years I’ve followed your blog. I’ve never posted anything before, but my father just texted me and said, “How come you’re the only one around here that seems to know anything about the weather?” Of course, I have you to thank, Kevin. I can state the logistics based on all the terminology used by many of you. Love this blog and how informative and up to date it remains. Now for my update: snowing steady with covered roads here in SW Roanoke off of Buck Mountain Road. Beautiful, but I’m dreading the possibility of another Friday off of school. Our spring days will start to melt away.
Sleeting fairly hard here in Franklin County. No rain mixed in. Gaps in the deck boards almost covered. Cool off aloft please, I want the white stuff (although any precipitation is good for a Creek Freak aka Franklin County’s paddlers).
All snow coming down pretty good now with grass almost completely covered and the road is completely covered up here on the steep part of Mt. Chestnut in Roanoke County just below Valhalla Vineyards.
Roads now covered here in northlakes in Roanoke county big flakes still coming down pretty heavy
Snowing in Troutville. The grass is starting to look white!
Still snowing steadily in Salem, around an inch, some on the roads now. This could be the big NorEaster.
Roads are snow covered here in Salem right off of Apperson by 7-11, and the snow is continuing to fall in big flakes. Just gorgeous!
Snow starting to mix with sleet in Bedford.
Thanks Nurse Snow for the info looks like a lot of you weather watchers are turning over to snow down that way.Still just cloudy conditions up here.Temp at 35.5.
Just came in from taking the dogs out. 34 degrees outside and the snow is starting to cover our road. Oak Grove area just off 419.
Snow and sleet in Buchanan. Very light. Kevin- hope you continue to improve! Thank you for taking your time with the blog even when you don’t feel well.
34 and really big snow flakes.
Reports of icy roads and at least one accident in the B’burg area. Be careful out there if you’re travelling.
Changeover now to snow …cars and grass areas becoming covered
Just checked the News 7 interactive radar. I am confused as to why it is still showing green and yellow over us instead of white for snow. Winter weather advisory has just been extended to the greater Roanoke area.
2″ is going to be conservative I think
Getting a mixed rain/sleet in Goochland, Co. down to 35.
Talk about Dynamic cooling. Moderate to heavy rain toward RIC with pressure beginning to fall.
Had a quick mix of snow, but still mostly sleet here in Goodview. Everything was already all white from the sleet. Currently 33.3..dewpoint 31.8
The winter weather advisory I saw is saying for Roanoke possibley up to 1 inch of slushy accumulation through 9 am on Friday. Unless I’m wrong, we’ve already surpassed that by 10pm Thursday night.
Sleet mixed in now …pizza guy reports, “It’s slick out here. Gotta be careful” .. but after three tries the dog finally made his evening outing
Snowing heavy in north co. near Hollins. What are the odds this stays with us a little longer and we go over 1-2″?
Looks like the dividing line is going to be the Blue Ridge Parkway once again. North of it will see snow, and south of it (unfortunately for me) is going to be a sleet/rain mix. I’m hoping that line will move south, but very doubtful looking at the yellows and reds on the radar indicating sleet. Doesn’t seem very indicative of cold air damming, or maybe some weak damming with an elevation component.
At 2213, Blacksburg experiencing a steady snowfall. The previous hour: freezing rain or sleet, not sure which. Overall, a messy, dangerous night for the roads. Stay off of them, or at home, most especially.
Think it’s going to be hard to stay below an inch in most of the Roanoke Valley even if it stays all snow only another hour. And it may go beyond that.
Winter Weather Advisory just extended along the Blue Ridge including the Valley
2-4″ for the Blue Ridge west before the change over is my thinking now.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
TONIGHT…ALL WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIPITATION
IMPACTS OUR AREA WITH A MIX OF RAIN…SNOW AND SLEET. ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW…AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT…EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME VERY GUSTY…AND REMAIN THAT WAY
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS OF 1000 PM EST THURSDAY…
COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM REGARDING PTYPE. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW ALL ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AS PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST US HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON AREAL COVERAGE
BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS STELLAR FOR PTYPE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT WEDGE WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT OVERNIGHT AS FLOW AROUND
DEEPENING LOW LOOKS TO KEEP IT IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME SOME
WARMING ALOFT WILL PREVENT PURE SNOW SO EXPECTING TO CONTINUE WITH
A MIXED BAG FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ICING DUE TO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT BUT STILL MAY POSE A HAZARD SO HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
It’s now sticking to my street here in SW Roanoke City. I normally don’t mind the snow but tomorrow morning is of course the one morning I really don’t need it. But with a forecasted high of 52 tomorrow this will be melted for the most part by noon.
All dang rain down here. I’m Jealous. Usually the other way around. Yall enjoy. Temp 33. Gonna be slick down my way but not the slick I like I’m afraid.
Pretty heavy sleet coming down here with some flakes trying to mix in.
Kevin, you said earlier this week the clippers can suprise you, but this is not a clipper is it? I was amazed how fast the roads here in SW county went from just wet to completely snow covered.
The hourly forecast on The Weather Channel app for Blue Ridge shows a temp of 37 with showers for each hour through 5AM Fri. Guess the model they are using has the warm nose overcoming the colder surface conditions.
Still mostly sleet falling here with some snow mixed in…where is my snow?! Probably about 1/4″ on the deck. The ground is white but I can still see the grass. Just saw a skunk go waddling through the yard and under the deck! Let’s hope nothing frightens it while it is under there.
I think Vinton is officially out of the snow hole. LOL. Coming down in heavy big flakes and covering the ground rapidly. Unexpected snows like this are so enjoyable because we haven’t been dissecting and stressing over models for 5 days trying to figure out what its going to do. It just…happened. Anything we get is icing on the cake for snow lovers like me.
It was cold and damp all day in Floyd. Haven’t seen any snow yet, mostly freezing rain or rain with the temperature fluctuating below just below freezing and just above. A little sleet mixed in over the last hour. It is yaktrak weather, the deck was rather slick and mushy when I let the dogs out.
This was an obvious 45-degree rain 2 days ago. Just goes to show that even in a somewhat milder pattern (we may hit 50 on Friday!) there can always be a short window favorable for winter weather.
Don’t have to check outside to know it’s snowing- just watch Kevin’s blog light up with comments. Still moderate to heavy snow here in North Co. with close to an inch. Ground and streets are white. Hope to wake up to a BIG surprise in the morning!
We need a like button for comments
Radar trend suggests this will all be over soon. Does that surprise anyonge?
Snow coming down on Brush Mountain. Huge Fat Flakes (I assume that means it’s warm further up?) About 1/4 inch now on the deck and the driveway is covered.
1/2 inch out here. Mixed sleet and snow. WDBJ on board for some possible action tomorrow night as well.
Snow sure is pouring up my way. Guess I just need a little wind to make it into a blizzard. Temp is about 29.
Just coming to post snow coming down on Brush Mountain (just outside of Blacksburg town limit headed on 460 W). A little over a quarter on an inch on the ground. Temp is 30 degrees. Elevation at my house is 2,401 according to Google Earth. Now that I typed this I see that RunnerDude beat me to it! Small world.
What radar are you looking at? The precipitation is increasing in intensity and the back edge isn’t moving east very fast. The Roanoke/Blacksburg area look to have a few more hours at least.
Kevin you are always reminding us that there can be short windows where snow can fall. We appear to be threading the needle tonight but I’ll take it. Snow lovers have no reason to be disappointed this winter. We’ve gotten more snow “events” than all of last winter.
Tracy!! If you live on Mt. Chestnut just below Valhalla, you are only about 1.2 or 1.3 miles south (and very uphill) from me. Great to hear from you. Wanna give me a ride to work tomorrow?? LOL
wd must be emitting zzzzs. Here is an ode to him. This is another snowstorm that “snucked’ in here.
Mainly sleet here in Radford. Hoping it changes to snow soon.
0.2″ of snow here just north of Bedford. It seems to be changing back to sleet.
Well, it may be a surprise based on a lot of forecasts … but the European model had it last night (reprised from comment 19, 9:44 a.m.)
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/531507_511283562248568_38339500_n.png
Blizzard update from Larry COsgrove.
http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-special-update-on-nor-easter-and-blizzard-of-february-8-9-2013
Kevin and Quags: Do either of you think this winter weather scenario for the Northeastern corridor this weekend is,in any way, similar to the Sandy set-up, only of the frozen variety?
Still raining…
Omigosh, I just thought of something. Unless WDBJ7 somehow stays beneath an inch, Kevin’s snow meter is busting out a loss for ROA this week. And what if somehow Blacksburg stays under an inch, too? Who woulda thunk it? Could it be a double loss for our famous, wonderful Shingles leader? And will dozens upon dozens of TWLSers be shrieking with joy for another day of cancelled classes?
NE blizzard not really like Sandy, other than combining a couple of systems. More like the 1978 blizzard in that area.
That’s right Doug — it is possible tonight I could double-bust on the snow meter in opposite directions, if Roanoke tops an inch (very likely) and Blacksburg doesn’t (possible, but not settled yet).
I never dreamed to start the week that this system would be the one to determine the week.
VZBBG…
agree with Kevin completely. This storm has no tropical origins and is a classic nor’easter setup.
Next week is also looking better for something to occur in the Mid-Atlantic. Not as big as this but excellent potential.
0Z GFS just coming out.
Ignore it.
Snow coming down at a good clip, currently:
slightly over an inch on the grass
1 inch on the car
1/2 inch on the trash can
about 1/10th of an inch on the driveway, road in my neighborhood starting to become completely white, as is the driveway itself. Radar still showing some decent precip currently and for a little while it seems.
I’m about to drive toward my home in SW Roanoke County from downtown. Will let you know how it was.
hitting the hay…update to QWC 2 Friday AM
Nobody in the Roanoke Valley is looking at models right now anyway, Quagmire.
Haven’t left yet, but will soon.
32º up here and still light rain. Must be a warm nose upstairs, doubt I see any snow now.
Just got home and witnessed a dramatic cutoff from plenty of snow and bad roads in Salem to no snow and clear roads around Dixie caverns. Transition occurred within a half a mile
The moisture depositing snow on you folks basically missed Eastern Washington Co. We have had a bit of rain but not enough to wet the road completely. There was a bit more rain toward the Damascus area. Temps are around 40 tonight. You snow lovers enjoy the snow – you deserve it.
Seems to be the season for spotty, streaky, weird snow events.
Still no snow in Radford just rain/sleet.
KM, please, please post a comment within an hour or two of what the roads are like in Roanoke city. I realize that you will remain east of the zip code where I work, but I am still curious. 32.5* here. I hope that we get another overnight of warming temps. Even 33.5 or 34 would be a lot easier to drive in than 32 or lower. Looks to be an inch on my driveway.
BTW, do any of you work for a school in Craig County? Classes cancelled tomorrow. Rnke Catholic on a 2-hour delay.
Yea…a few flakes have been mixed in here but it’s been mostly and all sleet/wee bit of rain event here. I keep hoping it will transition to all snow but so far nada. **POUT**
WOAH!!!! Huge flakes atm, accumulations have gone up in the last 20 minutes
Car has gone from 1 inch to 1.4 inches
grass has gone from about 1.1 inches to near or at 2 inches
driveway has gone from .1 inches of snow to .9!!
Still snowing heavily
No snow here! Doppler Carol you getting any? Freezing rain with a bit of sleet mixing in. Winds are calm.
Kevin – so sorry you have shingles. Been there and done that. Once when I was 30 and there were no drugs to treat it and then again (but it never hits the same place twice) at 40 and they had anti-virals by then. Made all the difference in the world. Take care and feel better.
Traveling all day to Hotlanta and it rained the whole way here. Surprised to hear all the reports of wintry snack mix in ROA and NRV and not in Hokieburg to report anything. A wet 45 degrees here and some freezing rain forecast.
I’ve got at least 2 inches of snow now and it’s still coming down hard in big flakes up here on Mt. Chestnut.
raining in Fairlawn
Radar looks the opposite now of what it often looks like in mid-summer in terms of who is getting precipitation, and who is dry. 7 months ago (and many times since then, too) M Hoback and Ken in Marion and often clarkdocvet were getting the wet stuff, and folks east of I-77 got nothin’. Now they are dry (OK, they got wet earlier) and everybody in SW Virginia east of I-77 is getting hit. Of course I would be happier if the radar looked like last summer right now. But Griggs, YCAGWYW!!
Just made the journey from Salem around exit 137 to work in downtown Roanoke. Roads were Slickest i have seen all year and there were several accidents and cars in ditches and fences. If you have to go out, use extreme caution. It is slicker than you would think by looking at it.
No Alberta Clipper, but would definitely call this an overachiever snow like the February 6 or 7 clipper in 2007. Most of day, most outlets called for little or no snow and sleet/freezing rain/rain were the issues. Now….WWA and moderate snow falling. Almost 2″ if not right at it near Fincastle with no signs of stopping, radar is full and temps are cold! I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get 4 or 5″ at this rate. The high tomorrow of 50 seems unlikely because I think the snow will hold the temps down, unless it does that warming up at night thingie!!
I’ve got 2 inches in the Penn Forest area of Roanoke now. Its been fun to watch tonight.
Saw some huge snowflakes coming down earlier. Biggest I’ve ever seen.
http://instagram.com/p/VdOr4NvVNy/
Just got home. Roads were snow-covered all the way from the Roanoke Times parking lot to my house south of Roanoke. Used 4-wheel drive most of the way.
Roanoke officially has 2 inches at WDBJ through midnight.
3 inches here in SW county
Scott: Good point, temps probably will be colder than forecast in snow-covered areas. Still should get enough above freezing to improve the roads by midday, though.
Now mostly rain in Radford with some sleet mixed in. No snow for us this time around.
Just eyeballing it, would say about 2 1/2 inches at my house, 1400 feet, southern Roanoke County.
Car has gone from 1.4 to 1.55/1.6 inches
Grass still around 2 inches
Driveway has gone from .9 inches to 1 inch.
Sorry for posting so much recently, just excited.
Looks like around 3 inches in Salem, still going strong. 12:12
Officially at midnight at NWS-Blacksburg: 0.3 inch of primarily sleet.
Measured between two and three inches at midnight in Raleigh Court. Huge flakes were falling just beforehand.
Some big ole flakes coming down in Hokie Land now. Still some sleet mixed in.
Finally a changeover to some light snow here in Radford but by looking at the radar should be done in the next hour or so.
In W Salem next to Exit 137, we have a good 2.75 inches (inexact measurement) and it’s still snowing. I just got back in from shooting a few photos of the mess at the exit.
This isn’t weather related directly– Even though the northbound lanes are blocked, traffic isn’t stopped; Emergency crews are routing everybody off of the interstate exit ramp, and then straight across Wildwood Road and back up the hill. The road is VERY slick and I saw a couple fender-benders as people tried to stop at Wildwood Road. Like I said, it’s a mess.
Amounts update
Driveway 1.5 inches
Car 2.6 inches
Grass 3 inches
The idea presented earlier that this storm isnt tropical in
nature is a bit off the mark.
The Gulf of Mexico is flooding the southeast with its moisture.
The Gulf is very much to be considered tropical in nature
especially with its warm surface temperatures.
Nasa/Wallops Island was to send up a Global Hawk unmanned
drone on the 6th of Feb (into the Gulf of Mexico) to do research and soundings and to enhance the weather forecast accuracy as it developed
off the Texas coast.
This southern area of low pressure that will phase with
the system in the Ohio Valley then NE…very much tropical
moisture tossed into the mix.
Might need to keep an eye on the precipitation to our west. Perhaps it will fall apart when the energy transfer begins but so far, I’m not seeing any sign of that.
I would agree, Joe. Definite influence of tropical moisture. Quagmire may have just meant it did not involve a tropical cyclone like Sandy.
Finally transitioned to snow here, falling on top if 1/2″ of sleet. Hope it keeps up for a while. I noticed NWS upped our amounts to 1-3″.
Very heavy snow falling at my location near Alleghany Springs in southeastern Montgomery County. Temperature is 33. Enormous flakes, beautiful to watch!!
Still snowing hard in W Salem at exit 140….
Just measured at my apartment in Blacksburg – 1.3″. https://twitter.com/zachhrobinson/status/299766168464539648/photo/1
VERY sharp gradient across Blacksburg. Drove to campus then to North side of town, and only a light coating there, can’t be more than a half of an inch as of now. COULD save Kevin and his snow meter. I’m about 1.5 miles South of there but deffintly have more snow than they do.
Here is another picture
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151714820643747&set=a.10150189805193747.366415.607378746&type=1&theater¬if_t=photo_comment
VERY interesting. Drove around town and noticed the snow seemed to really kinda slow down around the Airport. Not much on campus ( mulch beds and stuff covered but grass not). Circled around onto North Main – - not too much again just a light coating – - than began to increase in thickness around the cookout on South Main. I live off of Ellet Road – - so I am on the “Roanoke Side” of Blacksburg. Very interesting stuff.