2 mild weekend afternoons
The March winter storm wrote another chapter today, dumping many 1-2-foot (and some higher) amounts on parts of New England where much less was forecast. Seems Boston got D.C.’s snow.
If winds calm enough to go along with clear skies, low dew points tonight will set up radiational cooling overnight, with many lows in the 20s across Southwest Virginia on Saturday morning and maybe some upper teens in spots that typically get the coolest. Any amount of cloud cover, lingering winds or perhaps an early intrusion of warmer air from the southwest would keep temperatures up a bit. Regardless, both days this weekend should feature relatively mild highs in the upper 50s to low 60s under sunny skies across the region, as the cold air trapped in the region finally lets go a bit. These are not extraordinary compared to norms (low 50s for Blacksburg, mid 50s for Roanoke), but Roanoke hasn’t scraped 60 since Feb. 15 and Blacksburg hasn’t since Jan. 30, and both sites have a chance at that. Temperatures so far in March are running 6 to 8 degrees below normal — highs of 52 and 44 on Friday were a far cry from highs of 70 and 62, respectively, at Roanoke and Blacksburg on March 8 a year ago.
A low-pressure trough and cold front pushing through early in the coming week will likely bring widespread rain to the region, with amounts near an inch possible. Our soil is moist from 6 weeks of frequent rain and snow, and in the higher elevations and especially counties along the I-64 corridor and northward, there is snowpack in the process of melting. So there could be some flooding concerns if the rain is an inch or two more than projected, something to monitor, but generally not expected to be a major problem at this time. Once the cold front passes, some windy weather will ensue, knocking temperatures back down from the above-normal spurt, but it doesn’t appear the early week front will bring especially frigid March air, but more like normal to slightly below normal (think upper 40-mid 50s highs, lows in the 20s and 30s.) Toward the end of next week, an Alberta clipper type system crossing the Northeast may drag a front through that will be followed by colder air, still expected to dominate most of the next 2 weeks.
March 8, 2013 - 9:49 PM
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So basically winter is possibly deciding to hang on for a little while longer. I’m ok if I get another snow day LOL.
My plans this weekend…..while I would love to be out cleaning up my flower beds, I will most likely be stuck inside working on my kitchen. New cabinets and countertops were installed today, and now the real work of putting everything back in my kitchen begins.
Will be on the blog sparingly this weekend. Great weekend to take a break. Comments will be posted, but it might be a little while.
Enjoy the weather and rest up Kevin….thanx for all you do for WJN!!!
While it’s a calm weather time, I’ll toss in a weather-related project that’s happening in our household. Our 8 year old grandson needs to do a science project and he decided to do it on “using clouds to forcast weather.” Every day we look at the clouds at certain times of the day, take pictures, and record our local weather statistics. Next week he’ll put it all together into a project that he will present to the class. It was cool that we had last week’s storm to put in the statistics and we’ll have the upcoming storm in the data too. Maybe another young meteorologist in the making!
It was 28 frosty, clear degrees here at 6:50 AM. Now it looks like … check that, feels like early March ….. finally. Warming up nicely.
*****Leo Lady, if KM posts this promptly, check out Animal Planet channel immediately. Dogs 101 has a show at 9 AM that includes a few minutes about your favorite breed.
Cold didn’t make it to Goodview. Our low was 32.2. Jordantown’s low was 35.5. Hitting the links tomorrow for a tune-up round before our annual golf trip to Myrtle Beach next weekend.
Just called up an “outage map” from Dominion Power’s website. In their Shenandoah Valley / West Piedmont area, there are only about 6000 customers without electricity as of 10:20 AM today. Biggest number by far is in Albemarle County, which surrounds Charlottes (“Hoo”)ville. 4657 customers sans electricity, out of 40,264 customers. Next biggest number is 531 in Louisa County. The map they provided shows that they also provide power to some of the counties hit hardest (such as Rockingham and Augusta) by the Wednesday snowstorm, but their customers are concentrated along the floor of the Shenandoah valley, along the I-81 corridor. Looks like they are NOT the provider for any part of Nelson County, which is where Wintergreen is located.
Zach, superb job on forecasting!
Kevin, mind-boggling contrast in 20 miles? Has anyone ever been to that part of VA on this blog? I’ve been in nearly every part of the state except that strange area…I’ve travelled on every interstate substantially in VA except I have never crossed over or under or set my tires on Interstate 85. Seems to be a remote, out of the way area.
I’m on Interstate 85 quite often with my job. And yes! It is “out of the way” and a remote part of Va! Often times a gps device will take you many other back roads to get to places in that area of the state, basically bypassing the interstate!
“Afternoon” raid on Draper Valley Golf Course, instead of my mid-summer “Dawn Raids.” Very benign conditions for “goof.” Round was really strange in one respect ……. I was hot with the putter early and in the middle holes, but it suddenly said “That’s enough …… No more putts for you!!” Sort of like what the Soup Nazi used to say in Seinfeld (which I hardly ever watched, BTW).
What golf course are you planning to play tomorrow, Brian? Westlake? London Downs? Mariner’s Landing?
Today was an absolutely gorgeous day…perfect for being outside…and incredible for watching the NS steam train in Radford. What a sight to behold.
Kevin…. any update on the 3/18 model you showed yesterday?
We have done some talking recently about some memorable and huge snowstorms in March, such as the Storm of the Century in 1993, and how it can be “mean.” Well, it can also be downright toasty, too. There were the very warm Marches of 2007 (about a +6 here in ROA) and the April weather in March of last year (a ridiculous +10). And I remember a week-long spell in early March of 2000. From the 5th through the 11th, the high in Roanoke averaged 74* (with a colossal 83 on the 8th), and that week averaged 17 degrees warmer than normal.
Sidenote: Just to show that it was still March, the 17th through 20th of March 2000 averaged 8 degrees COLDER than normal, with very cold high/lows of 45/27 and 42/32 on the 18th and 19th.
Flutie: 12Z Euro kind looks similar for next Monday. Lows to the south, cold air working into Virginia. Overrunning setup for precipitation.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
Would suspect with the light shade of blue at 850mb (32 F approx 1 mile up) would be a close call cold rain/wet snow situation at surface if it verifies.
Drove to Williamsburg for the weekend today and we saw lots of snow still around in the Shenandoah area and along I-64. Mountains all white and beautiful. Then we saw all these trees down, mostly pines, either yanked out of the soft ground or broken in half all alongside I-64 presumably from the heavy, wet snow or wind. Crews were here and there working to cut up and get the trees off the shoulders.
From Larry Cosgrove’s weekly outlook……
“There is potential for a significant spring storm from the West Coast
into the Mid-Atlantic region in the 11 – 15 day period. I am taking a
very long look at weather through the spring and summer, Drought
patterns, what amounts to a neutral/negative El Nino and a super-
active ITCZ are leading me to believe that a very hot summer is in
store, with an “early and active” hurricane season targeting Florida
and the Gulf Coast.”
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove
2 or 3 days ago I commented that there was no sign in the CPC outlooks that there would be any big rise in the AO, nor in the NAO, either. Things have changed, although the timeframe when some of the models have the AO skyrocketing (only two of them show the AO going very positive) is way out there, well after March 16th, and in that period the chance of a model outlook verifying is low.
But it is the first I have seen recently showing a big rise in the AO, so it will be something to monitor, and I will do so. Even if it does happen, it would be too late to derail whatever might happen on March 17th or 18th. And none of the models show a rise in the NAO to + territory, also. In fact, some of those models have it diving to minus 2 or below, but again after the 16th. The oscillation/pattern that might start to bring on the warmth sooner is the PNA. There are signs that within a week it could plummet to negative numbers, which might cause a trough out west and a more steady ridge in the East. It was this same PNA that played a big role of derailing snow and cold chances in most of December.
Kevin, me, the wife and my grandson went to see OZ the Great and Powerful last night and I thought of you. When you are storm chasing this spring, find a big ole tornado, get in the center and ride it out to OZ. It would make for some tremendous reading especially if you could blog from the Emerald City. Did enjoy the movie almost as much as the weather yesterday. Headed for another beautiful day till it goes down hill.
Sunday afternoon golf on a beautiful day. This snow lover will just have to adapt.
Still believe winter may have one more surprise in her-till then-F O R E
Zach, thanks for the job well done. There is one more lesson for you to learn from this, when you are right, no one remembers, when you are wrong, no one forgets. Fortunately, you have a good following here on Kevins blog, which is one of the few I have seen where people try to be kind, courteous, and respectful. Not to mention the professionalism Kevin brings. So I don’t think that will be an issue here.
Michael Hoback, if you end up in Oz, be careful if you run across any magic beans, as maybe that is not just a fairytale either. Jack the Giant Slayer was a nice re-telling of the story.
Unless things change soon I don’t see today making into the 60′s and being anything like the beautiful day we had yesterday. Wanted to take a motorcycle ride but guess I’ll put that on hold. What happened? Must be the thick cloud cover or I am speaking too soon?
The NOAA 48-hour rainfall maps just issued this morning still show most of SW Virginia getting about an inch of rain Monday evening and very early Tuesday. Jay Webb’s model on WDBJ7 disagrees strongly. Only 0.3 inches for Roanoke, 0.4 inches for Blacksburg, and 0.6 inches for Galax or Hillsville. I would love it if the NOAA.ncep outlook verifies, but I have a feeling that this time “7″ will be right, or closer to correct. Jay’s forecast was issued during this morning’s 8AM newscast.
NON-WEATHER STATEMENT. Guy or gal with the name “Timesland” already tweeted (or facebooked) about this in the right margin of this page, but congratulations to the four local high school basketball teams who all won state championships in Richmond yesterday. Front page of RT Sports section blared, “GRAND SLAM!”
Radford boys, Floyd County Lady Buffaloes (LOVE that nickname! “Lady” gets me to conjuring up an image of a prim and proper English woman of riches, but then I read “Buffaloes!” and I think of powerful bison on the American plains), and the stupendous double play by the Salem boys’ AND girls’ teams all came through yesterday.
Um…what happened to the “mostly sunny” day we were forecast to have. Clouds rolled in about an hour ago and I haven’t seen the sun once since!
Just talked with my nephew and his wife in Salisbury, Mass. about 35 miles NE of Boston on the coast. They got about another foot of snow, but also got a very pleasant surprise immediately after the snow ended yesterday. Instead of plummeting or holding steady like it “always” does after a snowstorm, the temp went up and by quite a bit afterwards. Reached a “warm” 45 where they were yesterday. So roads looked to be in good shape in their corner of the state. Evidently the towns west and SW of Boston got hit hard once again, with numerous reports of 20 inches. Snowfall totals for all the states affected by the TWC “S” storm can be accessed through the link in Kevin’s post above (first sentence).
Well, I stand corrected on my earlier prediction of todays forcast. WJN aren’t you glad we have Kevin in stead of ME doing this blog!! Hope everyone is enjoying this beautiful weekend!!
Sun shining on me now (just finished hike near my house). Keep in mind we’re operating on an hour-shifted timeframe today, so what is now 2:30 was 1:30 before. Still some time for higher temps.
So glad to see the sun!!! Breeze out of the south/southwest and partly cloudy skies. Good day to be outside.
Ditto for my neighborhood, Kevin. Temp was 61 a while ago, and not only is it sunny, but the visibility is excellent again. Can see Peaks of O and Apple Orchard Mntn., and even with these old eyes I can still make out the NORAD building if I stare at AOM long enough.
} in which you link or show the latest HPC or WPC rainfall estimate map? Jay Webb indicated that the rain will probably not arrive here in the ROA valley until at least 5 pm tomorrow.
Weather Wizard, how about commenting or a new thread {now that I have commented, the chance of a new thread within an hour or two just went to over 50%
I’ll just get this out there now before someone else brings it up, 12Z Euro Days 9 and 10.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
No further comment at this time.
Oh well, here we come again Modelsville. Ain’t even lookin forward to that show.
Kevin, for those of us who can’t figure out how to read the Euro maps – what does that mean?
DT is already beating the big east coast snowstorm drums! LOL he just wont let winter die! Last storm teased the heck out of me I’m ready for spring. Hopefully next winter we will have a much colder pattern!
Doug G COMMENT # 18 speak English please- what does this mean??- cold weather coming or warm?? Snow or not??
Kevin, I bet the thought of another potential winter storm makes you tired. I know I am ready for spring at this point, especially after the warm weather we had this weekend!
WD: Go tell that to a lot of weather people around Boston who last week jettisoned what the models were showing (heavy snow) and went with common sense based on previous weather history (storm too far east for heavy snow). Result: Heavy snow, with storm located farther east than any had ever been to produce heavy snow. -
But point well taken about this particular situation.
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Jennifer: All the blue is cold air and the low would be positioned perfectly for a widespread major snowstorm.
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As with most things 7-10 days out that have only been on the board for a single model run, it probably goes away, even on the mighty Euro, or at least modifies to something simpler, weaker. Colder than normal air, however, appears to be likely moving forward this month.
Jason: It seems likely to me at this point we’re just destined to get at least one more winter weather flirtation this month. Very doubtful of something of the magnitude of the 12Z Euro at this point. Even in mid-January, an extraordinary claim like that requires extraordinary repeated evidence to buy into.
Doug: New thread may not get up til late. Rain may not arrive until sometime Monday evening, and probably a quick-hitting half-incher or something of that nature, not slow-setting 1-2 inches like some thoughts of a few days ago.
I am very doubtful that we will get any major snowstorm in the next week or too, given the tendency of the Euro to overdo the blocking this far out, and the fact that it is March. I do see it being somewhat cold and wintery, in a nuisance kind of way.
I dug several holes today for fence posts, and I can say the soil moisture looks pretty good.
Got on the ball and got new post up. Last snow meter up near midnight.
Chris, those oscillations are giving a somewhat muddled look for the future. Basically they favor colder than normal weather right now, but if the PNA goes negative and especially if the AO goes positive, warm weather may come “flooding” in here and spring will really get going.
Kevin, we need to get some basic definitions of what AO, NAO, and PNA stand for in the right margin. Chris, this response is not a complaint about you …. many times in the past stuff that I did not understand what has been posted by others and had to get explained. But this is the 3rd time this winter that I have posted stuff about AO (Arctic Oscillation, which when it is negative is a hopeful sign especially in the cold weather months of colder than normal weather), NAO (North Atlantic Oscilltn, which is a measure of how likely a “block” may get installed in the North Atlantic area, ideally in the Greenland area to cause snow here …. negative levels mean a block is likely), and PNA {Pacific North American pattern, which measures how likely a big ridge (Positive PNA) or trough (Negative PNA) gets set up in the Pacific Northwest ridge in the NW often means a trough for the East, and thus colder than normal weather is likely}. Ideal set-up for cold and possibly snowy weather in the East is negative AO and negative NAO and positive PNA. Separate comment with today’s AO-NAO-PNA status on next thread.
Next 2 weeks or so, I expect lots of 50s highs for Roanoke. Some 40s highs, some 60s highs. If that really cold air gets pulled in, 30s highs a day or two. Lows will depend on cloud cover at night. 30s/40s with it, 20s/30s without it.
Subtract about 3-5 degrees for Blacksburg.