20th anniversary of 1993 Superstorm
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Wednesday and Thursday will be unseasonably cold with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s at most locations (normals are in the 50s). There may be a few snow showers (mixed with rain in the afternoons Roanoke and east) as a couple of weak disturbances move through, adding to the effects of northwesterly flow squeezing some moisture out blowing up and over the mountains. We’ll warm up closer to normal (50s for highs) by the weekend, with some precipitation chances early next week — most likely rain, as it looks now.
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I can scarcely imagine what this blog would have been like if it existed 20 years ago with an epic storm moving out of the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast (somewhat inland into Virginia) bringing blizzard conditions to Southwest Virginia on March 12-13, 1993. (The satellite image from NOAA at left would have been late on March 13 — Southwest Virginia is actually getting dry-slotted at this point after a day of heavy snow and wind). I like to do a few historical weather stories from time to time, but I’m not a big fan of anniversary retrospectives on weather events. That said, a few events are deserving of such a look back. The 20th anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm is definitely worthy, considering its uniqueness and impact in American weather history, and the intense local effects. My Weather Journal column today only really scratches the surface of its local, regional and national impacts — a refresher more than a retrospective. But here are a few other links to provide deeper perspective.
Official NOAA snowfall map of the Superstorm
NOAA summary of Superstorm forecasting
Comprehensive analysis and weather products, courtesy University of Illinois
National Climatic Data Center technical report
Capital Weather Gang retrospective
I’ll leave it to the readers who were in this region during the Superstorm to fill in the depth locally. Feel free to leave a comment below about your experiences in the Blizzard of ’93.
For those who’ve asked about the Blacksburg snow-depth issue — why it was initially reported at 32 inches in the media, including The Roanoke Times, but the official record is 18 inches — I have no answers yet. But there are some folks looking into it, and I’ll let you know if a 32-inch measurement turns up. I know many of you are already convinced the higher total is correct. Intense drifting made the actual snowfall difficult to measure everywhere, and the National Weather Service was not emphasizing acquiring snowfall data in as much detail as it does today.
While it’s doubtful we will ever in our lifetimes see an atmospheric setup that closely mimics the 1993 Superstorm, it is only a matter of time till another powerful Miller A winter storm blasts up the East Coast and buries us in a foot or two (or three) of snow. How much time is what we don’t know.
March 12, 2013 - 11:26 PM
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36″ at my house in Carroll County.. I remember it vividly. No just kidding I was 2. haha but we have pictures not in drifts of measurements close to 40″. Mom said she remembers it well.. there was a good 18″ on one end, a break, than another bout of heavier drier snow on the back end, also nearing 18″. Total 36″. I actually had to have emergency surgery the day after the storm, and there are pictures of drifts up to the roof in the back door of our basement level apartment. Pretty cool stuff. Wish I was old enough to remember.
We were living in downtown Christiansburg at the time, two blocks from the center of town. The street in front of our house was a main road so it was always kept clear. Not this time! We were watching a friend’s house who was on spring break in Florida which normally we would have been able to drive to but this time, we had to walk a couple miles to her house. We could not walk on the sidewalks because of all of the snow, so we had to walk on the streets. We laughed because after it stopped snowing, a snowmobile went down our road into town – the only vehicle out and about.
Our cocker spaniel needed to go outside to use the bathroom, so we took our snow blower and cut paths through the snow in our back yard so she could use the bathroom. I have memories of her running the paths and stopping every now and then to jump up so she could see where she was! I also have memories of after the storm riding around the Riner area of Montgomery County and also over here in Floyd near the Doppler and being amazed at the drifts and the big machine that I called “The Drift Buster”.
I was teaching in Floyd County and remember we had a snow day or two! LOL!
Somewhere I have pictures and probably a video or two of some of the drifts. If I ever run across them, I will be sure and share.
36 mostly clear degrees here. Meanwhile, the BSDs are trying desperately to blow some snow flurries crossing from southern WV into Blacksburg. Welcome back to mid-January, everyone.
Leo Lady, please look through the previous thread for a comment I directed to you yesterday evening. Thanks.
At the time i lived on Blacksburg Rd in Troutville. There were huge snow drifts on Etzler Rd, just past the new school and down at the bottom of the hill towards sports complex. My dad had picked me up at work in 4×4 to take me home. All i remember of that flat area is a huge wall of snow on both sides of a one lane ‘tunnel’. The truck was about 6ft tall, and the walls of the ‘tunnel’ far exceeded that. My guess would be 10 ft tall. I remember thinking to myself DON’T CAVE IN, DON’T CAVE IN, DON’T CAVE IN until we got through it safely.
That hill was notoriously bad in winter, and you would have a hard time stopping once you started down it. Because of the way it was laid out, you couldn’t see the bottom of the hill when you started over the top. I was told that a few vehicles, including a state police cruiser, got buried in the drifts at the bottom and they finally had to bring in the one snow blower VDOT had on hand then to clear a path. The cleared path was only 1 lane wide, so you hoped someone didn’t try to come through from the other end at the same time.
I remember this storm pretty vividly – I was about 10 years old. However, I lived in west central Alabama at the time. But it was a major snowstorm for us as well – before this storm I’d never seen much more than a dusting – we received somewhere around 8″. We lost power at my home for 2 or 3 days. It was really wild for us.
Kevin,
As head of communications at Virginia Tech, I well remember the great ’93 blizzard. It began on March 12, a Friday. Our students were on spring break and preparing to return. As the weekend progressed, it was apparent no one could travel and the university would not open on Monday.
Imagine our difficulty trying to call media outlets up down the east coast trying to give a “weather closing announcement.” This was in the day before websites, email, or ubiquitous cell phones and public media comprised our connections to students. All ended well, but for many years thereafter I continued to receive each autumn my pass codes from TV and radio stations throughout the mid-Atlantic region.
Oh yes, and echoing comments from your column, I distinctly remembering measuring snow at my house in excess of 30 inches.
Larry Hincker, Blacksburg
We had nothing but rain where I was at for this storm…down in Virginia Beach. For us, it was a fairly typical nor’easter, with a little more wind and extra beach erosion. But largely, it was nothing remarkable for me.
Kevin, as a longtime lurker/sometime commenter/alltime weather nerd, I wanted to announce the launch of a personal weather station in the Northwood area of northwest Pulaski. It’s a long range station with Rapid Fire capability that I hope to have online with Weather Underground soon . . . just making sure the bugs are all out. The web address is http://www.rainwise.net/weather/janet24301, should anybody ever want to know that it’s 28 degrees in Pulaski with no wind.
My 1993 memory was an incredible shrinking snowfall expectation event in northeast Arkansas. Early in the week it was expected to be a moderate snow event (2-4 inches) with one of the upper-level shortwaves moving through that would help fire the big storm, but those predictions shrunk as we got closer to the storm. Ultimately, while some parts of Arkansas and Louisiana got light snow amounts, we got nothing. I was covering a state high school basketball tournament that had been making contingency plans that weren’t needed. It was just windy and extremely cold for mid-March. Amazing that the western edge of the snow shield was only about 3 hours drive east of a storm tracking along the East Coast.
For me in 1993 I was Junior at Purdue University on spring break at my parents house in Belpre OH (across the Ohio River from Parkersburg WV). We were on the NW side of the 2′ range of snow…I drove back to school the next day and 30 miles west towards Athens OH and not much at all. Was certainly blizzard conditions at the house and I remember constantly shovelling the driveway with my dad which getting tough with edge piles being so high!
Lots of my classmates got stranded in Tenn and VA trying to get back to school in Indiana from being down south at the beaches. I can remember the university not cutting anyone any slack for missing class on the first day after break.
I remember it well. We actually got snow in southside. I think I measured 13 inches at the house. A friend of mine had a run-in shelter for his livestock that collapsed. We spent several hours digging out livestock. You mentioned the cold in one of your articles and that’s what I remember also while we were doing that. Would love to have those types of snows each winter but not at the cost of life or property.
Started flurrying here before 9. Mountain is slowly disappearing. 38.3* and dropping.
The March 1993 Superstorm’s official snow total here in Bedford was 15″. The first I heard of a potential major storm for the weekend was on Monday, and it was hard to take it serious, but they kept talking about it all week. You could not just look at the latest computer model run to see for yourself back then, so you just waited for word from the local TV Meterologist’s or the Weather Channel.
That Thursday Robin Reed gave the definition of Blizzard conditions during the 6:00 newscast and after giving the definition said Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday! Once Robin Reed started hyping I knew it was going to be a special storm.
The National Weather Service did put us under a Blizzard Warning, and it lived up to the billing. I will never forget looking out the window and seeing whiteout conditions that Saturday Morning. Going back to the late 1970′s that is the only time our area was put under a Blizzard Warning.
Is it possible that the excessivesnow reports from Blacksburg and vincinity were due to blowing and drifting conditions?
Snow was so deep in New Hope near Staunton that me and my kids (2 and 6 at the time) were able to dig tunnels thru the snow. They loved it. My 2yr old (now 21) swears she remembers it, though she’s probably remembering the pictures we took. We were “snowed in” for several days. Surprisingly, we never lost power at the house.
It was amazing. I’ll never forget the total “whiteout” at times. I took a yard stick out in the yard and left it. We had a foot by then. My Dad and I watched the snow cover that yardstick completely. The next day we walked up to the “main” road and fell into a snow drift. Hadnt ever experienced that. My Dad laughed until he cried watching me struggle to free myself. I was 17 at the time and I really didnt appreciate how rare a storm that would turn out to be. One to remember, thats for sure. Oh yeah, location, we lived in the city limits of Galax then.
In Blacksburg during ’93 spring break, my friends and I didn’t have the money to go on spring break. We were close enough to a convenience store that was actually open to stock up on beer and whatever food they had. I remember having this enormous pot of deer chili at my friend Dave’s house.
Got a brief, ground-whitening snow squall here that ended about five minutes ago. Temp is 34F.
I was five years old and living near Columbia, SC. I don’t remember anything specifically, but I do believe we saw a little bit of snow.
a few renegade snow showers made it over the mountains to Doppler Ridge just a few minutes ago. Waiting on the howling winds to start up here.
I vividly remember the superstorm of March 1993. I was a high school senior. We ended up missing over 1 week of school and that ended up pushing back my graduation date to well into June. At the time, I drove a Cutlass Supreme. I have pictures at my moms house of the snow measuring right at the windows of my car. We lost power for 3-4 days, thank goodness we had a wood stove still to keep the house warm. We couldn’t get out our back door from the house b/c of the snow and snow was piled up high off the porch in the front. Definitley an intense storm worth remembering. While I don’t want that amount of snow/wind/power outages again, I do enjoy a 12+ inch snowfall from time to time!
Newt: Drifting made snow measurement difficult everywhere. And the weather service was not putting as much emphasis on standard snow measuring techniques as much then as it does now. Whatever the case, i can’t find where exactly that 32-inch report came from.
I also remember the March 1993 superstorm. I was about 10 years old living in Boones Mill, Va. I always have a hard time differentiating memories of the 1993 storm and the 1996 storm, which I believe was similar, just different time of year. I remember building an igloo, being able to create tunnels, and the drifts were up to the windows of our house. I do believe we also missed a good week or so of school. Very good memories!!
Light snow falling in Woodlawn right now. Where the heck is Spring?!?!
And yes, I remember well the big snow of ’93. I was stuck at work for 2 nights and most of 3 days before I could get home. Not a fun time!
I don’t remember measuring the ’93 Superstorm snow depth in Pulaski. It didn’t matter. All I know is that there wasn’t a vehicle in my driveway that could get us the 1000′ to the road.
My dad was a retired gas station owner and he made 2 sets of chains for my ’69 Bronco. With four chains, a lot of spinning and a lot of cursing we finally got to the main road. Once the state roads were plowed it made for interesting driving with those chains on! Some of you older folks may remember the effect,
Vigorous snow shower outside my window south of Roanoke (1400 feet) now. Indoor/outdoor thermometer says 44 degrees — even allowing for some imperfect placement, probably still low 40s, about as warm as it can be for snowflakes to reach the surface.
Lunch time report from Doppler Ridge – heavy snow showers and 38 F. Still no howling wind – yet.
Yes, where is spring? Where is the sun?
I’m wondering if there’s a chance Blacksburg will find a way to squeak an inch out of this stuff and bust the snow meter one last time. (Would be a little more likely overnight than battling March sun angle in daytime)
If the snow falling earlier by the VT airport had been able to stick, it likely would have been a quick 2 or 3 tenths of an inch of accumulation…it was coming down hard.
Great article KM. I was 8 yrs old living in NW roanoke at the time. If I’m correct it was warm prior to the storms arrival but when it rolled in everything changed drastically. The snow was flying at a rate I have never witnessed since and the accumulation in just a few hours was impressive. My mom was a private duty nurse and working in Lynchburg she became stranded for over a week before we could get to her. Let just say that was a joyous reunion. We went sledding up at the old Barrows plant and I remember my brother tossing me into the snow and I could look up through my impact mark and clearly see the outline of my body. I totally agree our accumulating snow total was over 36 inches. Oh and btw its pouring snow right now.
Well…I tried to discuss anyway,,
But models and outsiders arent given
much credence it seems sometimes.
March 6, 2013 at 12:39 pm
Looking at radar before going in to work..
Looks like the last arm of precip in the Lynchburg
area swept about over the Hales Ford area
on the border of Franklin and Bedford Co’s..
Anyone out there to verify?
ps…I think there might be one more shot at psbl
snow…another system coming in from southern
Miss Valley/Tenn a bit down the road..
Watch for discussions for around 12 Mar timeframe.
Doppler Carol: I saw your comment about the 1993 storm and not being able to use the sidewalks. That happened here in Roanoke as well. I remember walking down the middle of Avenham Ave. toward Franklin Road with a friend of mine. It was spooky as there were so few cars out.
I’ve always wondered what the AO NAO PNA values were for the 1993 storm. I’ve never seen them posted anywhere so I’m wondering if they even existed in 1993.
I was in Blacksburg for the 1993 Superstorm. I remember it was well forecast. I do remember the “official” reported snowfall for Blacksburg being 32 inches, although one would have been hard pressed to find that exact depth anywhere by the end of the storm, because of all of the blowing and drifting. I had friends trying to get back from spring break in Florida at the time, and I-77 on Fancy Gap Mountain was shut down due to tractor trailers spinning out trying to get up the hill. As soon as they would get one truck unstuck and open the road, another one would immediately spin out and jackknife.
Matt: Those oscillations have been known about for many decades. Will try to find something more definitive, but I do remember NAO was positive, having come out of a negative period, and I think PNA was negative, opposite what we would expect. Superstorm followed its own rules.
WOW. Ground is white on top of brush mountain amd the snow is coming down hard!!
Latest snow squall just ended. 0.7″ accumulation just west of Blacksburg. Getting close to that inch Kevin.
I lived in Cortland, NY back then and I remember it. Digging tunnels through the snow. Here are some pics from upstate NY…
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10151540564055351.1073741833.133138885350&type=1
Spectacular snow squall with strong wind in the Shawsville area of Montgomery County. Temp. is at 35.
Think I hear that junk yard dog growlin KM.
“BLIZZARD ALERT” Bent Mt. has disappeared.!!!!
I remember the ’93 event well. We had flown to Houston for my parents’ 45th anniversary party, so we missed seeing it fall, but couldn’t get back to Roanoke for another 24 hours ( Mom didn’t mind putting us up amother night). We got home around 10pm and I had to shovel the drive out before I could go to bed because I had to be at work the next day. It made me wonder why I ever left Texas!
Interesting video from Snowshoe’s webcam they are in and out of heavy snow squalls about every 10-15 minutes. Whiteout condtions one minute and partlal blue sky and Sun then next. Wild stuff.
http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-snowshoe-shavers-centre.php
A few snow showers here but not enough to deter 9 feral cats from coming out of hiding and going in to the traps after the canned food, ha, ha! and tomorrow morning they will go get “fixed”.
“BLIZZARD ALERT CANCELLED” due to blue skies and the mountain has reappeared.
John in Ruckersville – same here on Doppler Ridge.
wdbrand – I agree – I can barely see across the road to the the other field. I would say visibility is about two tenths of a mile. Forget the junkyard for the snow meter – maybe Kevin can take it down to that scrap metal place in Roanoke and have it melted and then take it up to Mt. Lake and pour it down that hole to stop up the lake drain so it could refill. Or if the snow meter is wood, Kevin could get the WJN together and we could burn it and have a bon fire and roast hot dogs and marshmallows! LOL!
Several friends and I beat the Storm of ’93 to Snowshoe by one day. Had fabulous conditions on Friday,then got dumped on for 2 straight days!! I don’t remember the official totals for the ski area,but they kept one or two lifts open so no refunds were given. I knew it was bad when the ski patrol got their snowmobiles stuck on the mountain…came home to Galax to find my driveway buried by snowplows with drifts up to 6′ deep…
I was a Junior at Giles High at the time and I remember that it snowed about a total of 30 inches on the weekend and I was out of school all the next week! I really loved snow when it got me out of school! Then January of 96 happend (about 36-40 “) and I think NRCC was canceled for a few days as well, so I got out of school again! Never did see much snow since then, until winter of 09-10. Since 09-10 I havent seen much at all until last week (only 4″), so I guess the lesson is cherisih these monster storms because you never know when you will get the next one!
Whoa..literally was a blizzard in blacksburg for about ten minutes. Ground went white for a sec. Then blue skies.
The blue skies are actually contributing to our “blizzards” today. Getting a lot of convective enhancement to these snow squalls from the sunshine in between the squalls. Kinda similar to summer showers/storms.
Skibum: Any delays at Roanoke Regional would probably be brief, as these things pass through pretty quickly. All flights on time as of this posting:
http://www.roanokeairport.com/
We’ve had a bunch of heavy snow showers today. The mountains are white above 3,000 feet.
We have had on and off snow showers today in our area. Ground got white earlier at home but melted off. I remember the 1993 storm. I was living in Glade Spring and we had between 25 and 30″. I remember the 96 storm also and being caught out on the road in a white-out. Had to make my way from Glade Spring to Blackwell Chapel on Monday after the storm and it was quite a challenge getting there. While there heavy equipment came through opening up the roads for my return trip. My parents were here visiting from Roanoke and Mother wanted to leave on Saturday and my Dad ignored her pleas. They got home on Wednesday. He wished he had not ignored her pleas!
I was living in Independence at the time, and with the warm temperatures the week before the storm, it was difficult to believe the ominious forecast. The snow came in fast, and, I remember measuring around 18″ before the wind started. After it started to blow, there was no visibility and no one wanted to venture outside. The next day, we had drifts covering most of a sliding door on one side of our deck, so I had to exit in back and shoveling the other entrance. I worked my way around the house and dug out my stepdaughter’s pet bunny cage, as it was totally covered. We ended up being trapped at the house for about 4 days.
There was a snow drift at the entrance of our cul-de-sac, that was so high, a front end loader sent by the state couldn’t make a dent. Several neighbors, all with shovels, spend the better part of day digging out. We lived within sight of Route 58, and you could sit for a couple of hours and not see a vehicle pass.
At one point during the storm, we heard a loud booming noise. We soon found out that a large factory in Independence (Nautilus) had an gas explosion that was caused by the storm. This was about 4/5 miles away!The plant was heavily damaged and so were some nearby residences. Thank goodness we did not lose power. After about 5 days, we almost glad to be able to go back to work. This was definately one of the top 5 weather events I have seen in my lifetime. I was too young to remember the great snow of 1960, but this makes me respect the people that lived through that one…
Some trivia:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202005/2005_fall/Top10SeasonSnowfalls.htm
Nice find, WD.
It is important to note that Blacksburg snowfall data for 1959-60 is largely non-existent for all of February, hence its low rating (7th, 38.6 inches) on the Top 10 list. Newspapers of the day noted 79 inches for that winter in Blacksburg. Certainly would be on par with 1995-96 if it existed.
Kevin, contrary to popular belief, 93 snowfall wasn’t as great as 96. At least on da Knob according to my diary and plowing log. It also wasn’t as extreme as 93 with wind, low temps and drifts and impacts. Therefore it’s become the redheaded step child of the 90′s. It still remains as a historic event in my estimation.
KM-great article on the storm in the Roanoke Times today, and thank you for trying to get the facts straight for the record here in Blacksburg. One other person that may be able to verify the 32″ mark is Robin Reed, if you have connections with him. I can remember vividly, the 6pm WDBJ newscast on Sunday, March 14, 1993, when Robin said that Blacksburg had actually “doubled up” Roanoke’s total of 16″ with 32″. One other interesting, and quite frankly remarkable, fact about the storm (which you can see on the NOAA map you linked at the top), is the fact that the Florida panhandle had up to 4″ of snow…….in March………in Florida. Incredible. Simply incredible.
WD: 1996 was an obvious winner in the Roanoke area, at least in terms of total snowfall (25 inches to 16). And 1996 was an obvious winner over ’93 in terms of how much of Virginia got 20+ inches — western 1/2 in 1996, western fringe in 1993. A few on here have expressed a nod for ’96 over ’93. (You and Jared agree!)
On the NESIS scale, 1993 is No. 1, 1996 is No. 2 for total impact for big cities in Eastern U.S. The only 2 snowstorms since 1950 to rate as “extreme” events for total impact.
January 1996 will be worth a 20-year look back in 3 years. And of course the 1985 floods will be worth a 30-year look back in 2 years.
With 1996, I see lots of maps showing Roanoke at 22 inches in a little hole surrounded by 2-foot-plus all around. But actualy, the official reports show 25 total. 22 fell in a 24-hour period, which is a Roanoke record. So even that snowfall record is a little askew.
I have read the posts comparing ’93 to ’96 and even looked at NOAA snow maps. The map showed 20-30 inches in ’96 for SWVA. I have lived in my present location (Pulaski) for 32+ years and 1993 was the only time I have been stranded at home. If the maps for 1996 are correct, it should have been worse than ’93. Could we have gotten less snow here in ’96?
Donnie …. and others who remembered the humongous snowstorm of 20 years ago …. I enjoyed your comment 13 talking about your 15 inches and especially the “true” blizzard conditions. And I chuckled when you recounted “Double R” (Robin Reed) “hyping” the storm and mentioning that widespread blizzard conditions were expected after he gave the definition. Just one thing, and shame on me for getting technical, Robin wasn’t “hyping.” To hype means to greatly exaggerate, at least that is what I think of when I hear that word.
Anyway, keep the rememberances coming, SW Virginia snow fans. I was in Alexandria, VA, due south of National Airport about 5 miles, and I think we got only 6 or 7 inches with lots of wind. Western and NWern suburbs of DC, such as far out as IAD (Dulles Airport, 30 miles NW) got up to 16-18 inches. Front Royal at the northern end of the Skyline Drive (and immediately south of the western end of I-66) got 30 to 36, I think.
Newman: It’s possible you could have gotten a little less snow at your location in 1996 than 1993. But, also, the drifting was much worse in 1993, and that caused a lot more widespread road blockage.
Generally, what I’ve discerned is that ’96 was worse in the Roanoke Valley, ’93 was worse along the I-77 corridor, and it was a toss-up in the New River Valley.
Hey, Blacksburg Mike, I just watched Jay Webb of WDBJ7 do a little piece during Robin’s weathercast, and Jay listed graphically the snowfall totals 20 years ago for 4 SW Virginia locations. Did you see it, too? Anyway, Jay’s list had ROA with 16 inches (as others have mentioned), if clarkdocvet (and other current bloggers) was close to Galax back then, then he got bombed with 38 inches. Snowshoe? A measly 44 inches {
}. And trumpets blaring please, Blacksburg, 32 INCHES!!! So even if the NWS is not amending, RR verified the number!!
Yeah, the early January 1996 event was immense for me in my “postal” zip back then in Falls Church, VA (a SW suburb of DC). More on that in about 34 months. Including what happened about 10 days after that storm. Something that made this rookie letter carrier ecstatic.
Jayson in Grayson, thanks mucho for your comment 16. Your words just verified (at LEAST …. you might have had a few inches more than that where you were) Jay Webb’s total for Galax.
As with any weather event it’s still like real estate. Location, location, location. The extreme conditions that wasn’t present is what keeps 96 from being mentioned as much. It didn’t have the impact. As with any storm folks rate a storm by the impact for their area, as do I. What happens in C’Ville doesn’t mean jack to me. Only where I live and work. I’ll put up my all time three storms in the order they left an impression on me later.
HokieGal, comment 24 about “Where is spring?” Good comment. Many customers on my postal routes throughout the years have commented that whenever the weather is mild in winter, or cool in summer, etc., they claim “We are going to pay for it” soon. Not always true, but in a way it is very true this winter. We had lots of mild days in December and even quite a few in January that were more typical for March. Well, now that March is here, we are getting quite a few days that are typical of those winter months or early February.
To answer your question, spring is on spring break down in Florida or south Texas or wherever it is warm. Either that, or spring is still hibernating.
I am going to post the following daily until it is no longer true. FSS.
@ Matt, comment 34. Dougie the “Oscillation Man” to the rescue, Kevin. Talk about a shock. I just looked at the daily values of the AO (Arctic Oscillation) during March 1993. I expected them to be very negative. Just the opposite ….. POSITIVE!! AO had been as negative as -2.3 on March 2nd and -1.88 on March 3rd, but then started to move up. The AO values for March 7th -12th, 1993. All + numbers: 7th: 0.154, then +0.070, 0.306, 0.533, 0.679, and +1.02. After the storm is when they really went way up, to 3.78 on the 16th and 3.98 on the 17th. I do not understand why they were not very negative …. perhaps KM or others can explain. I DO know that for some other big snowstorms or epic cold spells in the eastern USA, the AO did go into a deep dive, such as during the January 21st, 1985 deep freeze.
More on the NAO and PNA values in separate comment.
During March 7-12, 1993, the NAO was right around the neutral line. Again, my erroneous thinking is that it would be very negative, with a huge Greenland block sending the cold air and snow all the way to the Deep South. NOPE. March 7th NAO value: +0.142. 8th: +0.165. 9th: -0.073. 10th: -0.197. 11th: -0.108. 12th: +0.131. For those of you not familiar with typical NAO values, these values are quite small, some were even tiny. Just like the AO, this oscillation turned fairly positive after the storm. Rose to +1.6 on the 17th.
Location, WD, is why that when I hear Jan. 6-7 snowstorm, I think of 1988, not 1996. That was the biggest snowstorm we ever had in my time in Arkansas with 10-18 inches over all but the extreme northern and southern fringes of the state. Roanoke got 3 out of it.
Doug-yes, I did see Jay Webb tonight post Blackburg at 32″ for 1993! KM-I think instead of trying to track down where the 32″ figure came from, it may be better to get the NWS to explain to us where in the world the 18″ figure came from! Also, the fact that they list 1959-60 in their records as 38.6″ and don’t even have an asterisk by it, is equally troubling. I don’t understand why they won’t amend both 1993 and 1959-60, when all the reasonable evidence says both are wildly inaccurate. Also, a note on the 1996 total of 22″ in 24 hours and 25″ total for Roanoke. The 25″ total is correct, but the 22″ in 24 hours is incorrect. It snowed from 11pm Friday night until 3pm Sunday, a total of 40 hours. There is no way it snowed 22″ in 24 hours and then only 3″ the other 16 hours. I think another commenter mentioned this discrepancy the other day. The NWS does alot more right than they do wrong, but some of their record keeping leaves a bit to be desired.
Mike: I had someone from Blacksburg today who emailed me and insisted that by his measurement 18 inches was correct and 32 was ridiculous.
The 18 inches is from the airport station.
Again, I wasn’t here, so have no dog in the fight either way.
Roanoke Times, Monday, Jan. 8, 1996:
“Roanoke surpassed its mark for the most snowfall in a 24-hour period with the 22.2 inches that fell between 1 p.m. Saturday and 1 p.m. Sunday, the National Weather Service said. The previous record was set in February 1983, when 18.4 inches fell in one day. ”
Just like with 32 inches for Blacksburg, don’t know if it’s true or not, but that’s what was reported at the time.
1993 lived just north of ATL, had friends in from Raleigh for an indoor soccer tournament in south ATL. It was a cold pouring rain the night before and was raining when we went to bed. Woke up to a howling wind and 16 inches of drifting snow. Surprisingly, power stayed on so we could watch the ACC Basketball Tournament.. Our friends had four inches and played the soccer tournament..Had a large contingent of Cedar Waxwings stay with us eating the berries from our Cottoneaster.. stayed snowed in for several days.. lots of fun..
My NE Arkansas location got more out of 1996 than 1993 — 1 1/2 inches in 1996 vs. zippo in 1993. I was sick that day with some kind of stomach virus. Had just gone to Missouri Ozarks the day before to hike at a state park that had gotten 6 inches in the previous storm that missed us to the northwest. Seems like a long time ago.
I suppose the best way to settle all this dispute over snowfall records is to just get a storm next winter that outdoes both 1993 and 1996 at Roanoke and Blacksburg. Let it be very cold with dry fluffy snow, please. No more wet snow.
I remember the ’93 storm very well. We were living at Smith Mountain Lake and I think we got about 18″ but with the drifting it was hard to tell. Our cars were completely buried. One of my daughters was traveling with her gymnastics team to a meet in PA – the storm chased them all the way up the road. They jumped out of 2nd story windows to get out of the hotel because the drifts were so high. Of course, they had a ball.
Back to the final oscillation for March 1993, the PNA (Pacific North American pattern). For those of you not familiar with this particular alphabet soup combo, a + value for PNA means that a big ridge is likely in the Pacific Northwest, possibly covering all of the western half of the USA and southern Canada. Big ridge means that warmer than normal weather is almost certain for whatever area is being affected.
With a big ridge out west there is often a deep trough in the eastern states and SE Canada, meaning colder than normal temps. So a + PNA often leads to/causes colder than normal temps for Virginia.
A negative PNA means the opposite stuff happens. Big trough and colder than normal temps out west, while there is a ridge and warmer than normal temps in the East.
OK. PNA values for the first 12 days of March 1993. + 1.44 on 3-1-93, and they slowly dropped to about +1.0 on the 5th. Continued dropping. Down to + 0.27 on the 8th, then went negative, which is supposed to cause warmer than normal temps in the eastern USA. NOPE!!!! -0.055 on the 9th, -0.246 on the 10th, -0.266 on the 11th, and -0.219 on the 12th. As Kevin has explained here quite a few times in the past, there is usually about a 2 to 5-day lag between a particular value in an oscillation and its peak effect on SW Virginia.
For example, in January 1985, the AO went totally berserk in terms of negative numbers. The peak (or deepest DEPTH) was January 18th through 20th, when the values were a mind-boggling -5.693 on the 18th, then -6.226 on the 19th, and -5.581 on the 20th. On the 21st it was -4.224, starting to come back up. But that was the coldest day.
So we consider the optimum Miller A snowstorm pattern for SW Virginia to be AO-, NAO- and PNA+. And yet with Superstorm ’93, it was AO+, NAO+, PNA- … though those last 2 values were on the minor side and had just recently flipped. Big storms often lurk near pattern changes.
I’m sure somewhere there is a technical paper about how all that came to be. The important thing to remember is that you can never say never just because the alphabet soup doesn’t line up … nor can you start planning school days off just because the alphabet soup lines up perfectly. We’ve had plenty of NAO-/AO-/PNA+ periods that went by without a significant snowfall in SW Virginia.
Blacksburg Mike – I was the one who commented about that 24 hr snowfall for Roanoke in 1996. As you noted it started snowing before midnight Friday. We had between 6 and 8 inches by 1pm Saturday (beginning of NWS 24 hr record). It also did not stop before dark. The NWS figures have bothered me for years on that storm.
As for Superstorm ’93 – I had only been at my job for a few months so was still living with my parents at the old Willow River apts. We had about 18 inches. I’ve got a picture somewhere of all the cars in the parking lot all completely covered.
I spent the week scrambling for people to keep my kids! I had to work, but the day care centers were closed. It cost me more in child care since I had to pay per hour instead of per week. And a different sitter every day. Crazy times and I’m glad I don’t have to worry about that sort of stuff these days!
Super Storm ’93 occurred our second spring in Hillsville. We were renting a house that had been built in the 1920s. The wind blew so hard that snow came in under the windows. There were 5′ drifts in front and behind our car, which was parked on the street. My husband dug tunnels for our daughters, aged 5 and 10, to play in. I was so glad we lived in town and could walk to the grocery store. I remember Carroll County schools being closed for nigh on two weeks.
I was living in Mt. Airy, NC, and in first grade spring of 1960. I don’t remember how much snow we got, but I do remember going to school on some Saturdays and overhearing a friend of my mothers complaining that it had snowed every Wednesday in March.
Caroline, I am glad that you brought up 1960. In that winter I was 8-and-a-half years old, a 3rd grader living in Melrose (and now I deliver mail from the Melrose Post Office in Roanoke ….. what a coincidence) MASS (just north of Boston). I now remember that we got bombed huge up there, too. Most winters we did what we did in autumn and spring, walk home for lunch. Not that one. For weeks on end we had to bring our lunches (when school was open), because both school authorities and parents wanted us out walking as little as possible. Sidewalks were an icy mess for many weeks.
Kevin, my take on the oscillations in March 1993 was that they were not extreme 2 to 4 days before the huge storm. They were in flux, all three of them. Plus, to re-emphasize what you have often mentioned in previous years here, once the calendar flips to late February, the rules for big snowstorms get bent or even broken when it comes to the oscillations. That was CERTAINLY the case in March 1993. Storm may not have developed like it did if the month was December or January, with a merging of the three jet streams. Reactions, KM?