Another brush with sleety slush
A familiar theme of Southwest Virginia’s 2012-13 winter — moisture moving into a wedge of cold air — reprises its oft-repeated role overnight and early Monday, now almost three weeks into meteorological spring and just three days from the end of astronomical winter. Abundant moisture swept ahead of a low-pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley is overrunning cold air nearer the surface. The result is a wintry mix of snow, sleet and cold rain across much of Virginia, with more snow and sleet the farther north and higher up you go, the mountains west of Interstate 81 and north of Interstate 64 likely to again ta
ke the brunt. South of there, the closer you are to Interstate 64, especially at higher elevations, the more likely you are to see a few inches of snow/sleet mix overnight and early Monday as cold air continues to bank southwestward against the mountains. Winter weather advisories continue for Craig, Botetourt, Rockbridge, Alleghany and Bath counties, with winter storm warnings farther north. Farther south, the Roanoke and New River valleys, as well as the Blue Ridge south of those valleys, find themselves in the familiar position of riding the razor’s edge between frozen, freezing and unfrozen precipitation, as temperatures overnight drop through the mid 30s to near the freezing mark. Between midnight and 10 a.m., the temperature profile may become cold enough through the bottom mile of the atmosphere to support periods sleet and snow that could accumulate a slushy inch in some spots. Warmer air will be streaming in aloft, and this raises the specter of some freezing rain as well, more likely to collect on trees and exposed objects rather than road surfaces still holding in heat from Saturday’s sunny 70s.
As of this writing at mid-evening Sunday, it appears unlikely Monday morning’s mix will be a major travel problem in the Roanoke and New River valleys and anywhere south, but watch out for some patches of slush, especially in higher elevations. Any snow/sleet accumulation in the Roanoke/New River valleys is likely to be an inch or less, mostly in the grass — unless there is some kind of quirky 2012-13 suprise that would cause it to snow harder, longer. This could also very easily end up as primarily just a cold rain if the air temperature can buoy just above freezing in the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Watch the end of the week — the Thursday-Saturday time frame — for another possible winter event that may involve a lot of moisture and trapped cold air. The rest of March is likely to be one of the coldest late-March periods we’ve seen in many years. More on all this later in the week.
March 17, 2013 - 8:31 PM
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Any chance advisories extend south?
Kevin, if you were to assign “snow flake” numbers for this week, what would they be?……………more or less than 5?
If the WPC map HERE is correct, there won’t be much moisture to fling at the cold air next weekend.
Hey Kevin 17-13 in a tough conference the WJN…would warrant a high seed in my book!!!
Looks like WPC is betting on the suppressed track, Newman. There is a lot of moisture there, just not over us. But how many times have these things gone north this season? Could be an interesting setup. Or maybe just windy/cold/flurries.
Appreciate your support, Kevin. Committee won’t like my 6-9 road record (Blacksburg) and a couple of bad losses at home (Roanoke). (This refers to previous thread comment about my combined 17-13 record between Roanoke and Blacksburg on the snow meter, and not making the “postseason.”)
Just took the garbage out, and noticed very tiny ice pellets on the car top. Very thin. Had melted by time I got back from the road with no additional falling. Had heard it pecking on a skylight in the house before I went out.
Check out this snow map HERE from the 18Z GFS. Wow, this has to be overblown.
Does anyone think the incoming weather will actually do much? We have a long, steep driveway and my daughter has 3 doctors’ appts starting at 9. Should I park at barn or is it simply going to coat grassy areas? Oh- we live in Buchanan.
By my untrained eye, it looks as if most of the moisture on radar will miss us moving north west of us. Be done by midnight unless the precipitation on the southern edge fires up and fills in.
Great post, Newman, at 9:41 PM. Yes, the 18Z gfs map may indeed occur, but probably not here since we are in the bullseye 7+ days out. Of course, that bullseye could move away from us and then back again. Or disappear completely. But with the AO possibly/probably doing an emergency dive, I will be open-minded about a big snowstorm anywhere north of the 35th parallel in the USA around next weekend (the storm on Newman’s link is dated the 25th, week from Monday).
We had a quick burst of sleet earlier, but back to a cold, drizzling rain again.
I’m sure it WILL snow here on he 25th,as that is my big 50th birthday,and I will be spending it scuba diving in the warm waters of Turneffe Atoll,in Belize. My luck we will get a big snow while I’m gone. Oh well,I guess sun and warm waters aren’t all that bad…
I just got my Google Earth working again. And somehow I was able to add weather features to it. Two things of note.
A. Temperatures in Roanoke valley and even in Floyd County right now (well, 20 minutes ago or so) were incredibly uniform. Every single site that came into view (about 15 of them) were at 37*, from Bent Mountain and Check and Floyd and Pilot and Riner (yes, that is extreme southern Montgom. county) to around here and in western part of Roanoke city. I don’t ever remember seeing that (completely uniform temps despite HUGE differences in elevation) before when I go to the bottom of a weather underground website page.
2. The Google Earth also shows precipitation. Does anyone here know a lot about Siberian weather patterns? The Google thing showed a snowstorm the size of most of the lower 48 states east of the Urals. Absolutely immense coverage. Well south of the northern (Arctic Ocean) coastline.
joe, TYVM for explaining your previous comment about Significant Meteorological conditions, etc. on the previous thread. I may go do a Google search: Pocket City???
Erin: You have a little better chance than Roanoke of something significant, but I would think you probably get an inch or less of slushy stuff, if that. Less the closer to James River elevation you are. I suppose though if she has so many appointments it might pay to prepare for the worst and hope it’s an unneeded precaution.
Ground getting white and pouring down snow here in western Greene! Guess I will see how much we have in the morning and report to the blog. Things look interesting for the 24-25th! GFS and Euro both are picking up on a storm off the Carolina coast.
Todd: Most precip we’ve been getting has been redeveloping bands, and we’ll probably see more redevelopment through the night. Still, being between bands when it is coldest overnight/early AM would certainly limit any accumulation potential there might be.
Hey, clarkdocvet, want to trade places next week if we do get a snowstorm here?? I am one of the 1% of the population that is a “sinker,” so that scuba diving would be out for me, but they have golf courses down there, right?
Robin Reed just showed something about how Wednesday may have snow? Is there more than one late week storm possibility or is there confusion about when it may occur?
Well I stay off the blog for a few days and the weather goes to ‘heck’. We had 60′s yesterday with a hard rainfall in the afternoon. Some rain overnight and very cloudy and windy today. Temps today in the 50′s but the wedge is alive and well I see. I am traveling to Richmond tomorrow pm and I truly hope that sleet/snow/slush and mess is not on the interstates when I come through. We are to have snow showers later this week and talk of more snow over the weekend. I am ready for 75-80 and I sure hope April accommodates my wants.
There are some multiple pieces of atmospheric energy to watch this week, Flutie. Models having difficulty fixing the timing of each. That’s also why you’ve seen Thursday, Friday, Saturday and even as late as March 25 (next Monday) for potential larger storm system.
Doug…
PXV…Pocket City is one of the more intertesting things
I have ever researched..
Its a Navigational Aid in the far SW corner of Indiana..
Just across the river from Kentucky..
It is a major aviation crossroad used in all directions…
I-ll explain the meaning if anyone is interested…
You will not find the reference on any road maps Im aware of..
but a few of the people in that village refer to that community
that way themselves.
I even emailed someone in the history department at Evansville University…they did not have any answer at all.
Sleet and 37 in Glenvar at midnight.
My wife teaches in Craig Co/New Castle. Any guesses of the snow / ice accumulation ? I see white/pink on the radar.
Would guess 1 or 2 inches tops. We may have trouble getting past sleet this far south.
Couple inches here and still snowing! Roads are white.
joe, I DID google “Pocket City,” and Evansville sits in a corner of Indiana that some referred to as Indiana’s Pocket. Both interesting and “weeiirrdd.” Have a great day, joe.
31.5* here, but somehow there is no evidence of any ice, not even on the mailbox (our newspapers get placed in a slot underneath the box). But anyway one slices it, it ain’t pretty out there. Misty, some wind, a sort of nasty day for the middle of January. For March 18th, more ridiculousness. At least today is my day off this week.
The super news is that I had 1.1 inches of rain in the gauge!!
Deck coated with ice this morning. Some sleet, but mostly freezing rain. Drive to work in cloverdale had no issues (5 mi of back road + rest on 220 and 11).
Kelly Hoge, this one is for you. Guess which town in the WDBJ7 viewing area is forecasted to be the warmest today? TAZEWELL ……. 56*. Marion 54, Wytheville 53, Bluefield 51. Tazewell’s 56 (if it verifies, of course) has got to be above the normal high for March 18th. Yesterday’s normal high for ROA was only 58*.
Speaking of actuals vs. normals: Mark Twain would have loved the following, because he said that there are 3 kinds of lies: A. Lies; B. Dam–d Lies; and C. Statistics. Yesterday was a day that was much, much colder than normal here in SW Virginia, right (well, at least for Roanoke)? Not according to the official high/low in today’s RT. High at Roanoke airport was 59* at 12:01 AM, low of 39. Each was a degree or two warmer than “normal.”
32 at my house (southern Roanoke County, 1,400 feet) this morning, but nothing falling, and no apparent signs of ice.
We caught the gap in the precipitation as it got cold enough for icy stuff.
Posted an entirely new blog entry to note all this. The way roanoke.com is constructed now, I will probably be doing a few more fresh blog entries during changing weather events rather than just updating old entries.
KEVIN IF EVERTHING WAS TO COME TOGETHER COULD THIS NEW SYSTEM BE A FOOT PLUS?
Sunday……………..those are drops of rain, if that.