Bit of spring this Saturday (3:30 pm)
UPDATE 3:30 PM, 3/16: Roanoke has reached 77 degrees today, the warmest day since Oct. 25. A band of showers near the I-64 corridor in Virginia and West Virginia will move southeast into parts of Southwest Virginia later this afternoon or early evening. With temperatures having warmed so much as the surface, some thunderstorms are possible, and there is even a limited risk of gusty winds or marginally severe hail. A taste of spring indeed on a day with so many outdoor events — but colder weather is ahead for most of the rest of March. END UPDATE
Saturday will have some showers, but probably not enough to wash out the St. Patrick’s Day festivities in Roanoke and other outdoor events. The biggest batch of rain will slide through mostly Roanoke and northward — some healthy rainfall totals in West Virginia, dwindling out to under a quarter-inch along the U.S. 460 corridor through the Roanoke and New River valley and southward — during the morning hours, likely wrapping up by mid to late morning. This rain will be associated with a warm front swinging ahead of a low-pressure system moving to our northwest. With southwesterly winds behind the warm front and some sunshine poking through the clouds, high temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 are likely on Saturday afternoon, If that verifies, it would be the warmest afternoon we’ve had so far this March. Friday’s high of 65 in Roanoke equalled that of March 10. Blacksburg’s warmest so far was also on March 10, 64 degrees. A few showers may be possible at times in the afternoon, but again, a widespread, soaking rain is not expected.
Don’t get used to Saturday afternoon’s springlike warmth. It’s not getting sprung for good, just yet.
Saturday’s warming southwesterly winds will flip around to east to northeast behind a cold front sliding southward late Saturday or early Sunday. This will set up the familiar wedge pattern, with colder air becoming trapped against the mountains, through Sunday into Monday. Moisture overrunning the colder air will lead to periods of chilly rain, with temperatures holding in the upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations across Southwest Virginia. That’s just cold enough to raise the specter of possible frozen precipitation, and it does appear that some spots north of Interstate 64 and perhaps higher elevations above 3,500 feet to the south of there may see some snowflakes or sleet pellets at times, though a widespread or particularly troublesome winter weather episode is not anticipated (that could happen farther north from northern West Virginia into Pennsylvania). We’ll bounce back to near-normal temperatures — 50s highs, 30s lows, generally — at midweek before a stronger front reinforces the cold air by late week. Colder than normal temperatures are expected to dominate the central and eastern U.S. for most of the next two weeks. About next Friday or so, a wet storm system may cross the Southeast as cold air builds in deeply through much of the East. It’s possible this will put Southwest Virginia on the rain/snow bubble 2 days into astronomical spring. It’s too far out to speculate much about that system, but be aware that winter isn’t going quietly into any kind of good night this March.
March 15, 2013 - 6:04 PM
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Kevin, what is you feeling on the weather for the Bristol race weekend.
Similar to here, Roger. A bit warmer (50s) but still a chance of showers on Sunday. Probably not what you want to hear.
Thanks KM.
One more historical tidbit from 1940..
Pic from Lake Placid NY..
They were erecting an antenna for snowbound
folks on Easter.
http://drx.typepad.com/psychotherapyblog/2008/03/photo-of-the-18.html
Back to your link on the last thread Joe, I’m kinda surprised Peoria has had only 5 measurable snows on Easter dating to 1883, and only one 4+.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=easterstatisticspeoria
Finally the winds have let up…very nice day today! Have a great weekend everyone:)
Well, I just took a close-up gander at my forsythia bushes, and I can no longer post “FSS.” Which meant “Forsythia Still Sleeping.” At least not for 100% of the buds. A full 1 or 2% (LOL) are showing tiny bits of yellow. The few that have started to pop are so small that I could not even see them from here, even though they are about 20 feet away. This situation is still totally ridiculous. A few more will pop out tomorrow, because here in Roanoke valley we will be pushing 70, but then the “cold” hits the fan again. As Kevin mentioned above, “Bit of spring Sat., but it won’t last.”
Roanoke high temps for Sunday through next Friday, courtesy WDBJ7: 49, 46, 54, 53, 50, 54!!! (I used WDBJ7 only because their 7-day planner is one of my bookmarks) Not a single one of those would be closer than 4 degrees of the normal high temps. (Roanoke normal high for yesterday was 57, will be going to 58 either today or tomorrow, and up to about 60 by next Friday). Some of these temps may end up warmer than forecasted, but if what KM just posted very recently as a possibility happens, next Friday/Saturday might be much colder than 54.
My forsythia may not be in full bloom by the 22nd at this rate, which would break the Griggs back yard record of 2010 for the latest full bloom date. And the situation is pretty much the same in NW Roanoke city, too. At least on my postal route.
Yes..So was I kevin..
One more thing worthy of
note I think in 1940…
That was the same day of a huge
geomagnetic storm on the same day..
Related???
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/TE045i003p00359/abstract
For what it’s worth……….the Accu Wytheville forecast for March 25-26 is snow mixed with rain, highs mid-40′s and lows in the upper 20′s.
joe, thanks for posting the link about the March 1940 geo-magnetic storm. Do you know if there was a date either in 2011 or 2012 when the New York City area (or are geomag storms worldwide? I just revealed how little I know about them) was greatly affected?
I bought a video at least 4 years ago that featured several extremely rare weather occurrences, such as firestorms in Sydney, Australia and a Montreal ice storm. I think one was on a big magnetic storm that was predicted to affect New York City area in particular. The first two that I mentioned had already happened ….. Montreal was decimated by an incredible ice storm that lasted for about a week in January of either 1994 or 1998. I remember Jim Cantore talking in awe about that one. An ice storm that lasts for 12 hours is extremely rare, according to him. To have one that lasted 6+ days was as rare as what Sandy did to the NJ and Long Island coastlines.
Kevin of turkeycock, TYVM. I am having a great weekend. I spoke a couple of days ago with a fellow letter carrier who has lived in Roanoke for decades (poor guy is even older than me …..). He confirmed without hesitation that the past 5 to 6 years (maybe more) have been MUCH windier than earlier years. Quite a few of you have posted the same thing, and I do not remember anyone saying the opposite.
Doug…I havent heard of more recent solar bursts
causing issues in recent history..
There was of course the famous one not long after the telegraph
was completed that systems were really fried. Late August till around Sept 2 1859.
It may be a coincidence…but after this event in 1940..by 1948
the Govt was refitting bombers to provide ways of mass communication
via early TV…Think of these refitted B-29′s as the very first satellite TV.
It was called “Stratovision”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratovision
Doug…here are a few of the more prominent
ones..Im sure its by no means complete..
One would have thought 1940 may be mentioned..
but it wasnt.
1940…who knows what to believe??
http://www.space.com/12584-worst-solar-storms-sun-flares-history.html
Just like the eruption of the supervolcano at Yellowstone, it is not an if, but a when. That Yellowstone volcano will erupt. There will be a disruptive solar storm. The question is when. Which will be worse, I would say the eruption of Yellowstone. Its eruptions dwarf any modern eruption that we have seen. We are talking plunging us into winter during summer, and an ash blanket for the entire country.
Haven’t seen any rain yet, does that mean it’s coming later than expected?
First batch of showers came through around sunrise. I had a little rain where I’m at (southern Roanoke County). May not have rained on all equally, and not too much on anyone. Maybe some more developing later.
Beautiful day!!!
Been lookin since the end of Jan. and finally found one. A day that topped 70*. Didn’t hardly recognize it.
And I don’t think we’ll see another til April.
Hello everyone! Have relocated to our lake house in Wirtz, beside the 4H Center in Franklin County. Dropped some in elevation , from 1480 to 833 feet. New location is about 20 miles SE of our old Peakwood house in South Roanoke. Will miss the elevation flurries/snow we got in town but will enjoy more thunderstorms at the lake. Beautiful sky at night where the stars shine without the interference from city lights. A little more gas but a lot less mortgage payment. Will keep you guys posted on events here. Still working in Roanoke so will experience weather in town as well. Love all the posts, you folks make me feel right at home, wherever it might be. By the way, breezy and 75 here, a few fishing boats out on the water.
Steve at the lake, elevation 833
And just in case you haven’t noticed — there are now winter storm watches up Sunday night and Monday as close as Augusta and Highland counties.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/
These primarily affect elevations above 1500 feet but there could be some snow/mix all the way down to the valley floor up there. Would not be surprised if even some of our higher elevations down this way get a little sleet or snow out of this.
And we’re not done flirting with winter precipitation yet.
They have issued hazardous weather outlooks for much of our area for the chance of wintery mix for Monday morning.
Just looked at CPC for the outlook. 6 to 10 day shows 80%/90% chance of below normal temps. I don’t recall them taking that strong a position this winter. And the whole while lolly gaggin my time away looking at what might come instead of gettin in a weeks worth of wood in temps I know is present where shirt sleeves would do fine . That one will bite me fer shore. Let’s call it premature spring fever.
Currently up at Snowshoe and a cool rain has been falling all day. Even saw some lightning. Had a couple great days of skiing leading up to today so I can’t complain. Thursday was so cold you would have thought it was January. I’ve definitely seen a broad spectrum of weather since I have been up here. I see where Greene county is expecting snow tomorrow night and Monday morning.
K
Squall line just about to come through ROA Valley
First thunder of the year here in Blacksburg. A couple of strong gusts too. Not very much rain.
Strong wind gusts, rain squalls, and thunder since about 20 minutes ago.
See the line of storms on radar and sky is dark out that way and heading this way. I think I have heard some rumbles of thunder too. It has been a warm (69) but a very gusty day up here on the ridge. A good day to fly a kite – a sturdy kite that is. NWS and then my local PWS are showing sleet and snow showers for late tomorrow night and Monday morning.
Hoping this wind will die down real soon!
Kevin, I’ve often wondered about something. With Poor Mt. being a little under 4000′ elevation and stations real close to that in our area, if the surface temp for those locations are around 28*, would the same level of air over Roanoke be 28* also? Or does one have anything to do with the other? Also, does RRA do the balloon trick and if so, at what levels of the atmosphere are readings collected and logged. You talk about the 850 millibar[1 mile up I think] and 32* a lot. Since we have nothing land wise that high, can White top ground readings be the same as surrounding areas that aren’t that high in elevation? This an example of lolly gaggin at its finest.
Saw my first cloud-to-ground lightning stroke of the season.
Just had a nice quick T Storm at my house.
…and just like that it is over with blue skies and a rainbow on the back-end.
WD, generally speaking the temperature should be similar over the Roanoke Valley at 4,000 feet as what it is on the summit of Poor Mountain. There may be some local land/topography effects that affect the temp on Poor Mountain some, but it should be close. Roanoke Regional does not release balloons, they are done at Blacksburg since that is where the NWS office is. The sounding there usually is pretty close to Roanoke, though, especially the higher you go up in the atmosphere.
The 0C/850 mb line is a very loose method of determining a rain/snow line. It can be spoiled by either excessive warmth in the lower layers of the atmosphere, so that snow melts to rain on the way down, or a warm nose above the 850 mb level, which can lead to sleet. Generally, though, especially in midwinter, if its 0C at a mile up, cloud-level temperatures will be even colder to support ice crystal growth, and temperatures below that level will usually be cold enough or become cold enough for snow to reach the surface, especially the closer in height you are to 1 mile. I think the 0C line at 850 mb works a lot better for a mountainous region such as ours, where even the “low” elevations west of the Blue Ridge are 900+ feet, than it does closer to sea level.
Squall line just passed Stewartsville rained sideways for a while also saw some lightning
brief shower some wind and a flash of lighting about 4:30 at cburg mtn.
make that about 5:30
OK, a little spring weather excitement today. Gonna be off the blog a while, but back later tonight to post about wintry weather potential.
There is a freak setup about to happen with the Arctic Oscillation (“AO”), and I am not exaggerating. The ensemble outlook for the next 5 days or so is showing complete consensus that the AO is going to take a nosedive unlike any other I have seen in the past 2 or 3 years. ALL the red spaghetti strands in the top ensemble graph which I am about to link have the AO dropping steeply from its current negative level of about -1.2 or -1.3 all the way to MINUS 5 OR POSSIBLY EVEN MINUS 6!!! “Shut up for once, Doug, and show the link!!”
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml More in separate comment.
Very little rain, very gusty winds making white caps on the lake, temp now at 66 after a high of 77 today.
About a year ago on a quiet Sunday I did an awful lot of research about the history of both the NAO and the AO. On one of the CPC web pages, you can go back and look up either the monthly average figures for either the NAO or the AO, or you can even look back at about 23,000 days worth of daily data (daily levels dating back 63 years to January 1950). Guess who skimmed through all those dates for both oscillations?? Yep, me. And I can absolutely say that the number of times that the AO went to -5 or below (ESPECIALLY DURING A COLD WEATHER MONTH, Nov. through March) is tiny. Less than ten separate occurrences over those 63 years. One timeframe that really sticks out is January 1985. The state record cold happened on January 21, 1985, just after the AO bottomed below -5.
I hope that Kevin follows up on this outlook. All I “know” is that some region somewhere on the planet is going to go incredibly cold, regardless of the fact that it is about the equinox.
Missed the showers here. Here’s a link to the 18Z GFS run snow map for 3/24.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth192.gif
We watched the line roll through earlier while shopping for a new grill. It basically forked around the Radford/New River/Fairlawn area. I got home and checked radar, and that was the only apparent break in the line as it went through. Could see the heavy downpours flanking us, but all we got was a brief shower, enough to dampen things up and that was it. Same thing for overnight…just a brief, light shower and nothing else.
A foot of snow coming for Winchester again?
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
The NWS – Sterling is up to their old tricks again Jared French, so please don’t fall for it. Remember they had you under a Blizzard Warning on October 29th, then just about 10 days ago they had you down for 14″-18″, and now low and behold, out of clear left field, they have you down for 4″-6″ from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Whatever. Seriously, though, looks like the big spring snow for all of us is coming late Thursday night through Friday. Who knows, maybe we will finally get that White Easter after all?
14th Annual NEWxSFC – Storm #6: Call for Forecasts
Notwithstanding the Snowmen Prophets of Doom (http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/03/winter-12-13-vcp32-snowmen-prophets-of.html) …another contest-worthy storm may just be in the making before this winter comes to a close.
Main event awaits Tuesday; however…call is going out early to capture Monday snows across the M-A.
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SUN…17-MAR-13
—
Details @
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/03/winter-12-13-storm-6-call-for-forecasts.html