Coastal storm on Wed.; some snow here?
UPDATE 11:15 AM: Overnight and morning forecast guidance has moved strongly in the direction of increased snow potential for Southwest Virginia and many surrounding regions for Wednesday. I will cover this in more detail in a blog post this evening. The comments section on this blog entry contains many notes from me and other Weather Journal contributors about the potential snow threat. END UPDATE
While a lot of winter weather conversation has understandably shifted to the middle of next week, there is a disturbance sliding southeastward through the Tennessee Valley. The bulk of its energy and moisture will bypass our region to the west and south, but some additional snow may work into the areas west of Interstate 77 and the higher terrain from Grayson County into North Carolina, where winter weather advisories have been issued. The passage of this disturbance will also re-fire the upslope snow machine in West Virginia’s mountains, bleeding eastward at times, on Saturday, so don’t be surprised to see a few flakes fly by in the Roanoke Valley, and a ground-whitening skiff may not be out of the question in parts of the New River Valley if a snow squall parks just right tonight through Saturday night.
As much as you may want to say “Here we go again,” Wednesday’s potential situation is not anything like any winter weather setup that has “gone again” since maybe Christmas 2010. We have not in all that time had any storm system to watch within 5 days that had a solid chance of becoming a powerful East Coast low south of New Jersey that could become a widespread, and, at least potentially, historic winter storm. Model disparity is still pretty wide with respect to the mid-week storm, but there seems to be consensus at least that a deep low is likely to develop somewhere near the coast of the Carolinas or Virginia as a powerful upper-air impulse swings southeastward around an unseasonably cold (though not extremely cold) jet stream trough. So at this point, you could say the general forecast has become more sure, but the specific forecast for particular effects in particular locations is as muddled as ever. Friday’s forecast models specifically for Southwest Virginia for Wednesday’s storm ranged from rain/snow mix with little or no accumulation (GFS) to a moderate snow event of a few inches but much less than that of central and eastern Virginia (Euro — 12Z chart for Wednesday morning posted above) to a pretty solid hit of heavy snow extending even into West Virginia (Canadian, British models). Based on the trough location and likely track of the upper-air impulse, I’m leaning right now to something similar to the Euro, though maybe not as extreme as the Euro, in which the upper-air impulse triggers a period of snow (maybe mixed with rain or sleet for a time) and a few inches (guessing 2-4) of accumulation in Southwest Virginia, followed by a deepening low and heavier accumulations somewhere east or northeast of us. This is barely more than an educated guess, and could easily go way up or down to zilch with later data. The upper-end potential of this winter storm for the Eastern U.S. region is extreme — the Ash Wednesday 1962, and March 1, 1980, coastal storms, which produced large areas of 12-inch+ snow in addition to (especially in ’62) coastal flooding and strong winds, have been mentioned by some weather experts as storms somewhat similar to what is possible next week. (The Roanoke/New River valleys got 9 inches in the 1980 storm and about 6 inches in 1962, with much heavier amounts not far to the east, just for a frame of reference.) If you have travel plans anywhere in the Eastern U.S. from the Carolinas to Maine next week, inland as far west as the Tennessee Valley and eastern Ohio Valley, pay close attention to later forecasts as details on this storm become a little clearer.
March 1, 2013 - 9:27 PM
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This is not about Virginia weather, but it is very much about weather. TWC “met” named Niziol came up with his top 5 weather events for the CONUS so far. Number one was Nemo, of course, and he mentioned that Portland Maine got its biggest snowfall ever (31.9 inches). But the one that caught my eye was number 3, I think. Wichita Kansas got 20.9 or 21 inches of snow in February, the snowiest February ever, and they have records dating back to 1888, so it is very impressive. But the timing of this snowy February was stupendous. The drought monitor started to change for them this past week, but I will try to remember to see what it looks like for this coming week, while we are all busy nowcasting.
In my long life I have seen this happen lots and lots of times. An area gets into a drought, and Calif. had one that lasted something like 4 years, but once it ended, it ended very quickly. I think the strong El Nino of 1977 or 1978 ended it. Complete with many mudslides in southern Cal. I visited the visitor’s center of the (Mass.) Quabbin reservoir once, and they showed average reservoir levels going way back. Reservoir would start off full, drop a lot for 4 years, and then come back up again. Utah Wasatch Mntns had a snow drought for two straight years. 3rd year? Double the normal.
Bring on the snow, this could be the last chance this winter
DT at Wxrisk.com just came out with a Special Friday Evening Video that explains it all on what the models say. enjoy…
http://youtu.be/KM5XzsolXYw
Will update QWC Saturday AM with fresh info….Good night!!!
First post here, usually go to the Accuweather forums. To much north east bias. Love this blog and the posts that follow. Appears to me, after looking at several model runs and listening to several bloggers and their first predictions. Us Virginians are looking a little better ATM for accumulating snow then others. I think Lynchburg to Richmond is the sweetspot but whats 100 miles 5 days out
I am rooting for one last snow, and a good one, not 2 inches of slushy mush…then we can bring on spring. Deal?
Ahh, my favorite words… “springlike warming”…If it takes this winter storm to get to spring, then bring it on!
Welcome aboard, Snowville! So you live south of Claytor Lake? Are you on the Pulaski side of the New River? I don’t think we have a regular commenter here that is from your area, so I hope that you make this a habit.
We’ll probably get scraps while places to our east will get the full meal.
According to 7-day forecasts by both NWS and “7,” Roanoke will not reach 50 this month until next Friday, although it might reach that num on Thursday. Whatever, it will be the longest streak of days to start March without reaching 50 this century. In 2009 and 2010, there were 4 straight such days. I think this will be the first mention of it on this blog this month …. but March is sure coming in like a lion. :>)
Almost forgot. 13 weeks down, 3 to go. And I am not talking about the snow meter.
TWC is going to make an exception for this storm next week and break the alphabetic naming of storms. They’ll call it “Custer” as in “Winter’s last stand” – I’m hoping it goes “Crazy Horse” on us in SW VA.
0Z GFS tonight departs from day’s earlier runs and hammers Southwest Virginia with snow, especially Roanoke and south. Here’s a peek at Wednesday afternoon.
http://tinyurl.com/amonmyl
Light blue dot about Martinsville would be like 12-15 inches of snow — in SIX HOURS.
It’ll change again and again, so don’t take this too much to heart. We’ll see where the trends take us on the various models.
Hey Doug G, regarding your statement #70 from yesterday… Yes, I was here in DC in 09-10, so I know, I can only complain but so much. In fact, Kevin had an apropo comment for me earlier that this year DC was “paying the tab” for 09-10. We totaled around 5′ generally for the winter, higher out around Dulles. This is why I haven’t piped p much for 3 years but it’s starting to wear in me. 09-10 was too much, huge pain in the , but 2″ and less in back to back winters?! Can’t we have a happy medium, say an average 16″ winter? Incidentally, the March 1,2,3 1980 storm has been referenced on the blog. I was a young pup in Camp Lejeune, NC, for that storm. What was forecast to be rain turned into 22″ of heavy wet snow. Camp Lejeune, or anywhere else on the SE N Carolina coast for that matter didn’t have a whole lot of snow removal equipment so that was an interesting few days. Melted in 4 days but was fun while it lasted.
Kevin, I thought if the storm moved north we would get more rain, not more snow. The 0Z GFS is farther north isn’t it?
Sweet Jiminy Crickets! That can’t be right. Somebody is doing a Snow Dance hard and heavy in ‘Noke tonight.
Southwest VA is bullseye per Saturday 0Z GFS…
But will it hold? Probably not.
Just updated Blog Page for Saturday 0Z GFS operational run…
Have the Clown Map (snowfall accumulation) and Precip map up too.
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
The Canadian and UKMET runs looked good too! CMC bombs all of the Old Dominion…
Newman: GFS just tightens the whole storm a lot earlier. So the cold gets wrapped into it a lot sooner. Keep in mind also that the GFS has actually been too far south at times with the upper-level energy for heavy snow here.
Saturday’s 0Z GFS Ensemble Mean was much more realistic IMO than the operational run. Still hefty and wetter with the snow amounts.
Now I’m realy going to bed!
Um guys, the Euro is hammering us!! This is finally starting to piece itself together! I think one to two more days of model runs and then we’re in the clear. I think the big ‘un…well, I’m not going to say it yet…don’t want to jinx anyone here especially good ol’ Jared French in Greene County, however I’m sure Doug wouldn’t mind if I cursed the snow.
I can barely contain my excitement though. I was waiting for the Euro to confirm the GFS…now we just need the ensembles to line up better!
So Kevin do you really think Roanoke is going to get over a foot of snow with this storm? And do you think Martinsville will get the 12-15 inches of snow and Roanoke won’t get anything? They have been wrong every time this year. What about Goodview/SML area do you think we will get any snow from this at all this time? I know your not a fortune teller. You have been more correct then the weather people on TV. I think you should replace them.
It’s crazy the other few times how Roanoke got snow and Goodview didn’t get any snow. This been a crazy winter. Take care
Thomas
GFS = 16 inches in Floyd County! How’s that Doppler Carol?
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
32 fully overcast degrees here for the past hour. Not much wind, but no frost, either. Good visibility. Consensus today among NWS, WDBJ7, WSET13, and TWC. High today in ROA only 41-42. WAAAYYY below normal. Even a bit colder and especially windier tomorrow.
So as of now based on the models……what are you thinking for accumulations for Roanoke? I know it could change many times
kevin, what model has been the most constant this winter?
Well, if I based it solely on the overnight forecast models, the GFS/Euro/Canadian/UKMet are pretty much in agreement for at least a winter storm warning-level event (4+) with a major event (12+) on the table as at least a possibility for just about all of SW Virginia.
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Still being 3 1/2 to 4 days out from the storm, my general thinking would be that it will probably snow Wednesday, but I would want to see more agreement with the models over another couple of days before honking the horn for a 6+ or possibly 12+ inch snowstorm. A north or south shift or later/earlier evolution of the low-pressure system would change things substantially.
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Arthur: Answer to that question for almost any season these days would be the European model, but it isn’t perfect either.
I strongly recommend Lynchburg weather blogger Keith Huffman’s discussion this morning looking at ins and outs of snow potential in our general region:
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http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/help-im-stepping-into-twighlight-zone.html
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Unfortunately — it is likely we would be talking about heavy wet snow again if this snowstorm happens, not fluffy stuff. Power outages and tree damage would again be on the table if we get heavier amounts.
Light snow falling now in NW Rockbridge County. Mountain peaks obviously catching snow. Birds swarming feeder.
After the past few years, “skeptical” is the word of the day for Wednesday’s storm for me.
It looks like it could start snowing here any minute even though the radar is relatively clean but you can see where moisture seems to be building from the North, West, and South. Maybe a small low pressure is starting to form out of this disturbance?
And this was the storm I thought Harrisonburg was going to get s good storm for once…. Swing and a miss again
Britten: Harrisonburg is very much still in the game on this one. All of Virginia is. It’s not a swing and a miss … batter is still in the dugout, not even the on-deck circle yet.
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John-Rville: Skepticism is warranted with any snow situation 4 days out, especially an upper low in a blocked pattern in March. It will probably snow a ton on somebody — but who? Where?
Cant wait until you come out with percentages Kevin…. I know it will be a day or two, but thats when I know things are officially getting serious….
Wow, all models are trending greatly toward this storm! DT says the models show the heaviest snow from Roanoke/Lynchburg up both sides of the Blue Ridge toward Culpeper. However that is probably the kiss of death for this storm since DT is saying this!
Good Morning my fellow friends of the WJN (Weather Journal Nation)…
After a great night’s sleep, time to get to work. I missed the Saturday AM 0Z Euro and it was another great run for the Mid-Atlantic with Ensemble verification. Virginia including the Roanoke Valley, NRV, Shenandoah Valley, US 29 corridor (Danville/Lynchburg/C’ville/Culpepper/Greene & Madison Counties for Mr. French) to DC & the Piedmont to I-95 are all in play for at least 4-8″ guaranteed. I’ll stop with the snow amounts right there as we are still about T minus 4 days and the models will no doubt shift again. Yes, for the most part the models do show heavier amounts of over a foot in most of those above mentioned areas and that solution is possible. I’m certain the Saturday 12Z runs will continue with the consistent solutions and verify that snow indeed is coming.
TQ at newSFCwx…Are you out there? Any possible chance of having a special Snowfall Contest for the Mid-Atlantic by including additional stations like KRIC, KLYH, KROA, KCHO, KGSO, KBLF, KBKW or am I asking too much. I’d love to get my “Rookie” status upgraded with this upcoming event. Also I’m seeing more chatter about a SSW. Update…thoughts?
I hope the is me and the where is at my house…lol
As I will be in C’ville on Wednesday, I predict a total miss. Now that I want snow, I can’t get it! I’m hoping for it. I’d like to get out in my short driveway and build a snow sculpture of some sort. (Any suggestions of what to build?)
Lex – yep, have a hawk who has been dining on our chickens – have lost 3 in 3 days. So I have been out in the blowing snow showers and wind stringing flashy red/silver ribbon over the area where they have been getting nailed. It is really cold out there.
Rick in Wytheville – 16 inches, huh! LOL!!! Mercy, mercy! If it materializes, I will be sure to post pics!
I am afraid I have become a weather journal junkie, but I have had my morning fix so I am okay. Kevin, I really have to be careful now not to put you on the spot, but when I go to other blogs, I am often tempted to say, “that sounds great, but WWKMS – what would Kevin Myatt say?”
12Z GFS seems to be holding serve on the snow threat for Wednesday.
I will get into this later this evening, but big key will be track of the 500mb vort (upper-air disturbance works fine for non-technical purposes). Last 2 runs of GFS dig that into SC. Generally, it needs to be no farther north than I-40 in NC for the best chance of snow in SW Virginia.
Seems likely at this point that this storm will fit the theme of 2012-13 and be another rain changing to snow situation via dynamic cooling. We’ll get some weak warm air advection on the front side with marginal late-winter/early spring surface temperatures before the upper-air impulse and tightening surface low bring the cold air in behind. I don’t expect nearly as much rain as in the Jan. 17 event — a greater percentage of the precipitation is likely to be snow, as it stands now, than it was in that storm.
Too early for much clarity on amounts, but definitely the chances of a widespread 4+ storm are increasing. To be a widespread 12+ storm all cylinders will have to fire just right, especially with respect to the forward speed of the storm slowing just enough.
Easiest way to go awry now would be for the disturbance to track too far north, shifting snow threat farther north. There is a good bit of wiggle room, and blocking pattern to north probably won’t allow it to go too far north.
Also for now, it appears snow may pick up in early morning hours Wednesday. This timing could be critical to increasing snowfall amounts. Afternoon initiation of snow could lead to more struggle with slightly warmer surface/near-surface temperatures.
Looks like an exciting few days ahead of us! While I would be happy with 6+ inches, one 12+ sounds awesome!
what does the new euro look like 12z
It will have to improve if it makes 41* today. Temps been coming down since around 11 and is 33.6* now.
Still several minutes til Euro comes out. I probably won’t see it till 3 or after.
Just listened to DT’s youtube.com video link posted in Quags comment #3 on the prospects of this historic storm as DT calls it. Whether his predictions are right or not, I’ll have to say that he is entertaining to listen to and does some teaching in his explanations…the typos and misspellings in his written material seem to be part of the whole DT package.
So KM – does this look to be more of a Wednesday event, whatever it ends of being? Just trying to plan ahead. If it is 12″ of ****, I am ready with Downton Abbey season 2 to pop into the DVD player.
33 raw degrees here, a cold breeze and lightly overcast skies. Feels like snow.
Definitely Wednesday. No snow earlier than Tuesday evening (maybe some rain though), and the bulk of it on Wednesday.
Captain Glen,
I’m doing another snow dance. Yes, it’s me. My office mates have threatened to put my desk outside. The next run of the euro should point to us getting lots of snow here in SWVA Virginia.
Saturday’s 12Z Euro shoots and scores! Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!!!
GOSL!!!
Happy Snow Dance Time!!!!
I’m getting secondhand word that the 12Z Euro is a very big hit for Southwest Virginia.
I’m updating QWC as fast as humanly possible on the Blog Page with the latest 12Z models runs, so please be patient. If my website is down, that means I’m updating so keep checking back.
Bea and everyone dancing…Keep it up! Instead of the Harlem Shake how about the “BIG UN” Shake…
Great, I guess passersby will have to watch Jared dancing on top of the Burger King again. I hope he is not dissapointed again or it could get real ugly around here.
All I know is that is a very uncomfortable chill to the bone feeling outside…located 3100 feet in elevation at the foot of Poor Mountain in Roanoke County….I would say that we took the snow plow off the ATV a week too soon….going by the predicated snowfall potential where we live.
Wow, new euro just out smashes Greene with 18-24 inches! This is to good to be true!!
Mr. French, Mr. Saunders and Mr. Brand and residents of Turkeycock Mountain…
How does at least 12-18″+ of snow sound? Euro says 18-24 inches plus for the NRV, Roanoke Valley up 81 to Winchester, 29 from just south of Lynchburg to Manassas. Posted Saturday 12Z Snow Map on QWC Home Page.
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
Can’t find it quagmire post on here if you can
Quags, I don’t see your snow map anywhere on your site, or am I just missing it?
During this period we will be off in warmer climes, but unlike most people, I would be quite unhappy to miss a big one. Dag nab it!
Just asked one of the friendly accuweather forum members for the qpf output for roanoke via euro and its 2.40″ of liquid in ALL SNOW. WOW!!
Quagmire, is southeast Virginia in on this snowstorm?
Please let this come true!!!
Try my website again…
Euro snowmap is on Home Page….it’s there.
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com/
Really wintry feeling here in Blacksburg. Heavy clouds, 32 degrees and breezy.
It appears that either scenerio brings a nice snow to C’ville.. or is that just my snow-colored glasses?
Here’s another link for the Saturday 12Z Euro Snow Map from WxRisk.com
Facebook Page:
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/62439_494496587264271_214200620_n.png
I just told my three kids to bark out loud. Woof! Woof! Woof! I know the predictions can and will possibly change, but this teacher blog follower and kids are excited. I think I’ll send my hubby out to fertilize with grass seed.
Kevin, when do you think you will have enough info. to post some well educated snow fall epectations in inches for Roanoke Valley.
Thanks!
Capt. I sure do Like your expectations. Hope they come to fruition. Its’s been a long winter of waiting on some significant snow. We snow lovers are Ready!!
Quags’ snow map is on the front page. Here’s a shot of it for those that can’t get. Maybe hit F5 to force a reload on his page to see it.
http://screencast.com/t/JfCB7YBJWYU
Captain Glen,
That would almost make up for missing the blizzard in coastal MA last month. Would Floyd County be in the 18-24″ range, do you think?
Kevin, any chances southeast Virginia gets back in on the snow?
LOVE the 0Z GFS last night that had Martinsville in the sweet spot! Doin’ a snow dance – bring it on!!! Seriously need a snow day (or two)!!!
My wife and I just hope this doesn’t change. We have been waiting for a good snow all winter. What a great way to finish! Snow prayers please be answered.
Thanks for the update Cap’t. You have me confused with somebody else wanting the big snow totals. I don’t care whether it does or don’t. I confine my rants to NOOA, NWS and the state of the modeling. I’ll say this right now, we don’t need a total like you have shown consisting of heavy, wet snow. Power lines will take a huge hit, along with folks losing power, trees not only down on lines but in the roads blocking access to line crews. No, not a good send off to a mediorce winter. How bout just sending mine to JF.
The latest snow scare from Accuweather.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979
Robert in Suffolk…
Looks like the heavy snow will stay west of I-95. Tidewater looks to get mostly rain with a change to mix then all snow in the last several hours with light accumulations at the most.
Kevin and Quags, the NWS in their Forcast Discussion makes this projected storm sound quite insignificant. Why is that? Nor do the local TV mets. I don’t understand how models can project major storms – - I know they change while these other folks seem like they never have looked at a model. Is that my ignorance or do they just tend to go conservative until closer to an event?
Thanks
I have to tell myself the same thing I said the other night when UVA was up 15-4 in the first half. Take a deep breath and let it play out we are still early aka days out.
I must agree with wd. Wet snow in these amounts could wreak havov.
JUST IN….
SATURDAY 12Z EURO ENSEMBLES AND ITS MEAN SAYS…YES TO INFINITY FOR THE BIG UN!
WILL POST MAPS SHORTLY…
STILL LOOKING AT A HUGE HIT FOR VIRIGINIA IN THE 1 TO 2 FEET PLUS RANGE.
Robert in Suffolk…To add to your inquiry about snow in the Tidewater…It is looking better for you now per the 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean. Definitely looks like a rain changing to snow late Wednesday afternoon with accumulations possible 2-4″ or more in southeastern VA.
Checkout blog for latest thoughts on storm
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/maybe-last-but-loudest-train-to-kitty.html
Zach…brilliant! Agree
This is from DT’s WxRisk.com Facebook Page in reference to the Saturday 12Z Euro Ensembles:
TUESDAY NIGHT rain snow mix over SW VA .. eastern KY …
RAIN over ALL of NC even over the western NC mtns …
Good snows over IN southern OH western KY
WEDNESDAY 1AM MARCH 6 …
HEAVY SNOW most of IND all of OH except for CLE.. eastern half of KY eastern TN mtns above 800 feet … all of WVA except for northeast WVA…
RAIN going to HEAVY SNOW over far sw VA…. and west of intertstate 81 …
CENTRAL VA/ RICHMOND is all rain… as is all of southeast VA down to EMPORIA and all of southeast VA … snow Reaches NW VA …
WEDNESDAY 7AM MARCH 6 …
for RICHMOND and all of southeast VA = RAIN as is ALL of eastern half of NC .. east of I-85 .
MODERATE SNOW continues over far eastern KY ALL of OH into southwest PA… up to PIT..
HEAVY SNOW over eastern half of WVA … all of SOUTHWEST VA.. from Wytheville to Roanoke …all of the Shenandoah to Harrisonburg… SNOW over all for the PEIDMONT … from HICKORY NC to Lynchburg to FREDERICKSURG into al of NORTHERN VA including DCA..
MODERATE snow reaches BWI and western side of Lower MD eastern shore
WED 1PM MARCH 6 … the Low is over NORTHEAST NC… RICHMOND has gone over to Snow…( for you wx Geeks 850 TEMP IS -3C !!!) …. SNOW ends over eastern KY… and close to ending over FAR SW VA ( west of Wytheville) MODERATE snow into western PA… NORTH EDGE of the snow reach HARRISBURG and Philly..
HEAVY SNOW over all of western and central VA… Roanoke to HOT SPRINGS to C’ ville …all of the Shenandoah valley gets buried … VA PIEDMONT all HEAVY SNOW.. as is all of NORTHEN VA into DCA / BWI ..
DEL/ Lower MD eastern shore.. snow rain Mix to all snow
in NC … GREENSBORO sees moderate snow for several hours .. snow ends at HICKORY
IN NJ MODERATE SNOW Cape may NJ
WEDNESDAY 7PM … LOW is now east of ELIZABETH CITY NC … heading EAST out to sea
in eastern NC Rain has gone over to SNOW …
in VA ….MODERATE snow still over sw VA…Roanoke Lynchburg HOT SPRINGS.. into eastern WVA sourthwest PA Altoona Harrisburg Philly Trrenton NJ…
HEAVY snow over Richmond and all of central VA as far west as FARMVILLE into Middle Penisula Northern neck to Frederisburg and all of DCA southern MD and BWI into Hagerstown.. SOUTHEAST VA may be all SNOW
1am THURSDAY MARCH 7..
SNOW is over across ALL of southwest VA and western NC.. MODERATE SNOW still over C’ ville Richmond Farmville to to Fredericksburg and DCA into Philly and southern half of NJ HEAVY SNOW over lower MD eastern shore and Tidewater.
John from Salem: NWS-Blacksburg forecast discussion has this line:
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ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY REAL CONFIDENCE…BASED ON TODAYS 12Z SET OF MODELS…WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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For a storm 4 days out, that’s pretty big wording in an NWS forecast discussion.
Anybody know where I can buy a cheap yardstick?
While I don’t want to be a party pooper (if in fact there is a party to poop) for all the snow fans who have been yearning for a “big’un”, WD is very correct to note that a storm of the magnitude the Euro is cranking out would be a paralyzing blow to much of the state, with tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of power outages and significant tree damage. It is a good thing this isn’t a little later in a warm March, as the trees aren’t blossoming yet, which would add to the damage of heavy wet snow accumulation. Even last year, the warmth we had in February was enough to get some buds going in some places by this time.
I’m still not trying to get overly excited for those 12″+ totals. I’m gonna set expectations low so I don’t get totally bummed if we don’t get blasted!
At Kevin’s comment #81: NWS Blacksburg is usually very conservative to throw out snowfall totals, and like Kevin said that’s fairly confident this far out.
John from Salem…
NWS is always taking the low road and staying conservative up until about 48-60 hours or so before the event. They don’t like to jump on the band wagon like me jumping up and down for joy when the models say it’s March Madness coming in 3-4 days. Just think if the NWS got it wrong when their primary mission is to be right 99.9% of the time and to warn the Public of hazardous weather. If they come on board now and then nothing happens, they look really bad and thus their mission failed to properly protect th public. The next time something more serious happens say Spring Severe weather, the general public will not heed the warnings due to the last bad performance. Be patient, I have a funny feeling that the NWS, HPC & even SPC will come on board later on Sunday after the 12Z model runs. They are the ones that have to get it right. I don’t.
I bet a fellow weather nerd at work we would measure 6 inches in the courtyard wednesday. All you can eat Pancakes looks good for me right now…
And to answer a question posed earlier, I’m actually just across the little river in Montgomery County.
Don’t discount the winds. As the low moves off, any heavy wet snow won’t take it kindly while hanging on leafless limbs when a 40 MPH gust hits them. That’s where the most damage will likely occur, the backside of the storm.
Bea – where are you located? I am in northeast Floyd County near the Doppler.
I have been outside some this afternoon and the winds are bitterly cold and it just feels like snow. We might have made it up to 30 today but now it is down to 29 and will only go lower.
Hokie Trax – hope you have power to watch the DVD.
Capt. Thanks. Makes sense. Hopefully they will all be on board sometime tomorrow. I understand everyones concern about potentially dangerous situations. Just want at least one Big Un!!!
18z GFS says not so fast. DC area gets crushed this run. I’m beginning to feel a little nervous that this thing will move just far enough south of us that we don’t get much.
I’m impressed the NWS has a 70% chance of snow this far in advance of a storm. I just wished local TV mets would talk a little more about the magnitude of the storm should it take a certain track, opposed to “we could see some accumulating snow should the storm go this way”. That way people could get supplies instead of everyone going to the store tuesday and finding nothing. What would it hurt to talk about the potential of a storm while adding nothing is set in stone?
18Z GFS would be a 2-6-inch type snow in much of our are with heavier amounts farther north. It takes the disturbance farther north than earlier forecast model runs. But it’s one off-hour run 4 days ahead of time. If it’s the start of a trend, that’s another matter.
Ben: You sure about that? 18Z GFS has more than an inch and a half of QPF in our area.
https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/307975628932644864/photo/1
A lot of that is rain on the front end, Brandon.
But here’s a map of snow amounts. A little bigger than I just described I-81 corridor and west on the 18Z GFS.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194511
An inch and a half two an inch an three quarters QPF could easily produce a foot of snow!
Sorry about that.
too
18z snow maps:
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/5994/1a7672b98656491989383a9.png
http://i.imgur.com/uSkFXuv.png
Boy that 18Z GFS sure has the Weenies at AmericanWx jumping up and down for joy more than I am right now.
Trending north for the northeast now! Yippee we get the big un now Mid-Atlantic gets nothing!
Dream on…
Snow maps still show a foot which is good for gfs comparing it to 12z (amounts increased) also considering 6 and 18z aren’t the best runs 12z was more of an 8 inch snow 18 z is more of a 12inch snow that increase in amount can show gfs and euro coming to an agreement can’t wait to see 18z euro
When does euro come out
and here is comparison
12z gfs
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
18 z gfs http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/5994/1a7672b98656491989383a9.png
I don’t think 6Z and 18Z Euro stuff is widely available to the general public.
well, if anybody has access let us know the situation
Isn’t the GFS 18z the least “respected” of the model runs? (Trying to keep hope alive for the big ‘un)
I’m not so sure why “most” are convinced this is gonna be a huge snow for us! Haven’t any of you learned anything from this winter?! 4 days out from a storm, doesn’t mean anything right now!!! Yeah, it hints towards a possible blockbuster storm for “somewhere” in the midatlantic! And nobody really knows what if anything is going to happen! BUT as Kevin has said many times in the past….. its not necessarily a good thing that we are the bullseye this far out! Models almost certainly will move somewhere else! All I’m saying is, don’t get hopes too far up snow lovers… we have seen this before!! Only to be severely dissappointed and jump all over Kevin and the other meteorologists when it misses us, or doesn’t come close to these storm totals! The general consenses is as I see it at this point…. it may or may not happen!! Any objections??!!
The 3 points I would make at this point:
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* A snowstorm is likely going to happen in the central/southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic area
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* Exactly where the highest amounts will happen is uncertain — somewhere in Virginia seems to be best bet.
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* SW Virginia likely gets at least some snow, maybe or maybe not the huge dumps.
But most of the time they haven’t held this long! Also, does the 18z gfs really mean anything after you see that it might have increased from the 12z run. Also what Todd said. Soon enough the gfs will come to senses. The euro will still predict a big storm at 0z. And there you have it. Sorry people who think it won’t snow and don’t like snow. This will be a good ole’ storm. Which model predicted “Superstorm Sandy” the blizzard in new england, the EURO.
I apologize for interrupting the early celebrations, but I mentioned early today that there was consensus among Channels 7 and 13, NWS, and TWC that Roanoke’s high temp would be about 41 or 42 today. Well, instead of the other 3 units joining L. Tapases of “13″ in being correct, all FOUR of them were wrong. High so far has been only 37, with no sign that it will go up. It was 36* on my entire commute home, until I got above 1250 feet on Sugar Loaf Mntn Road, and then the temp dropped to 34.
REALLY strange thing is that much earlier in the week (Tuesday for sure) on its “7 Day Planner,” WDBJ7 had it much closer to being correct, with a forecast high of 39 for today. They all underestimated how these continuing NW winds and clouds could keep just about everyone west of the Blue Ridge very unseasonably cold.
Back in December and January, we had lots of days here in the Roanoke area that were more like early March, with highs at least in the low 50s. Now that we ARE in early March, we are having typical mid-January weather, if not even a bit colder than that for highs.
Ricky, I agree with a lot of what you said, especially the sentence that Kevin has stated quite a few times over the years, that days in advance, you often don’t want to be in the bullseye of the expected storm totals. But I readily admit that this one could be an exception, and SW Virginia does end up being the hardest hit region.
Carol,
We are not far from Doppler tower either. It has been windy and really cold today.
Re Comment #80 by Zach–excellent explanation of what might happen, or scary, depending on your point of view. VA looks to be a player in this system, no matter what.
The national weather service in Morristown is not getting on board with this storm for far SW VA. They mention in the hazardous weather outlook that there may be a rain system turning to snow but it is too early to discuss. This is so typical for them. Our area forecast is for rain from Mon Nite thru Tues Nite and then a mix of snow. It does look by the models that you all have been posting that the bulk will probably fall Wytheville and north. This is often the case and we usually win out on the upslopes and lose on the big uns! I am really tiring of this winter of maybes and maybe we can have some 75 and garden weather soon and let the snow go. Right now it is a cold windy 27 and to get my house toasty today, a fire in the cookstove was necessary.
The GFS could very well be right as well. Our system is just starting to come ashore out west and some better sampling being injected into the models could cause the models to change in our favor or not not in our favor. Another thing to notice on the 18z run is the blocking to the NE moves out faster than previous runs and allowing this ULL to curve north rather than being shunted out to sea. Could it be a trend? Possibly. But for now it’s just one run out of many with many more to go.
Camden in Fairlawn…
Euro only comes out twice a day at 0Z and 12Z. It has no intermediate runs like the GFS. Next Euro will be out after 1:15 AM Sunday.
Also relax…18Z GFS is to be ignored this far out. It is an intermediate model run using the previous 12Z data and has poor synoptic performance and terrible truncation. The same applies with the 06Z GFS runs…So don’t worry about it. We are in great shape still. Enjoy dinner and the evening and wait for the 0Z runs. First 0Z tonight will be the GFS starting around 11:00 PM.
CMC and UKMET follow around just after midnight.
Doug…it was much colder today than predicted for the entire region. Only made it to 40 here today in Goochland Co.
I’m steppin out for awhile…date night with the wife. Be back after 0Z GFS run.
Quagmire: I’ve been told that 6Z and 18Z Euro data does exist, but it’s not widely available. NWS personnel do have access to it.
Lot’s of, or no snow , who nows? I am just glad to be able to enjoy what could be the last chance this winter for a big-un with the rest of you snow trackers. This sure is a lot more interesting then being worried about tornados and sever t-storms which will be apon us soon enough.
The next 3 – 4 days sure will be fun to observe on here.
This snow lover is actually a bit annoyed at the idea of a snow next Wed. of all days. The last time my son had an appointment with a medical specialist in Roanoke was our last big snow and we had to cancel the appointment and they rescheduled him for…yep!…next Wed.
Ricky, I think this is an exception because there have been so many runs that have hit this part of VA with a heavy snow. Everyone knows it’s not a lock by any stretch; however, the euro has been on this storm for a while and the fact it has been showing this low exiting between south carolina and virginia for 3 days now is pretty impressive for a storm that was around 170 hours out. On top of that the GFS starts to trend that same direction. Considering how well the Euro did with Nemo I believe if you had to put money one way or the other most would place it on SWVA getting at least a 6+ snow.
Kevin- Do people get angry with you when a storm misses us?
I tend to get more upset when local weather forcaster downplay storms till the last possible moment. What does it hurt to say ” this thing could drop 12+”
I see more people getting upset about mets talking about this storms potential.
I actually don’t get much angry feedback when a snow busts. There is a lots of angst on the board from snow lovers, but it’s not really directed at me. The one thing I try not to do is wrap myself too much up personally and emotionally in a forecast or a weather event. It’s weather, it makes a donkey out of all of us sooner or later.
Just started a new thread to carry us through the night and most of Sunday.
I’m hoping it keeps dipping south and we get the jackpot here in southwest Virginia!