Edge of heavy snow may divide SW Va
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ROANOKE/NEW RIVER VALLEYS AND SOUTHWESTWARD
* Some icy spots possible this morning from overnight periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow that moved across much of Southwest Virginia.
* Additional rain begins later today — possibly wintry mix to start — and continues overnight as milder air aloft overrides cold air at surface ahead of a low-pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley. More than 1 inch of rain possible.
* Rain expected to change to snow from west to east in the pre-dawn hours as cold air is pulled toward new developing low in North Carolina.
* An area of heavy snow develops on northwest side of low-pressure system on Wednesday. Where exactly it sets up difficult to pinpoint. General thinking based on forecast model output is that the edge of it extends southward to just north of the U.S. 460 corridor (Blacksburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg).
* Projected snowfall amounts generally 4+ inches in winter storm warning area north of Roanoke; 2-4 inches in winter weather advisory, Roanoke-New River Valley and southward.
* Snowfall amounts will shift upward if (1) cold air to support snow develops or remains in place much farther south than expected this evening; (2) cold air moves in faster in the pre-dawn hours; (3) the snow area on Wednesday extends farther south than modeled. A slight shift southward in the low’s projected track near Virginia-North Carolina border could result in more/wider snow coverage in Southwest Virginia on Wednesday.
* Snowfall amounts will shift downward if precipitation moves out faster than cold air can arrive in early morning and edge of snow area behind low is farther north than expected. A slight shift northward in the low’s projected track, moving further into southeastern Virginia, could result in lesser snowfal coverage/amounts for our region.
* Upslope snow showers on northwest winds develop mainly west of Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon into Thursday monring, possibly adding to snow amounts in locations that usually receive snow squalls, especially west of I-77 and near Virginia-West Virginia border.
* Strong wind gusts exceeding 50 mph possible behind departing low late Wednesdsay/early Thursday.
* Warming trend with highs possibly topping 60 by weekend.
March 5, 2013 - 6:44 AM
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This is a situation where the political boundaries of counties aren’t convenient for weather advisories. Judgment call why Bedford and Craig counties aren’t in the warning — northern Bedford likely similar to central Botetourt and Amherst counties — and Craig County has slightly higher winter storm warning guidance (5+) than counties just east. These warnings/advisories are fluid and can easily shift north and south pending later weather information. The county lines of course, are not. Unlike severe warnings, the weather service doesn’t issue winter advisories for segments of counties.
Kevin, overnight local mets seemed to have cut back on their overall snowfall projections. For example, mets both here in C’ville and Richmond now have C’ville pegged in the 5-8 range (down from 8-14), and Richmond in the all rain category (down from 3-6 inches). Down the road a bit in Lynchburg, again they’ve scaled back their projections there quite a bit as well. I’ve been projecting 6-7 inches for C’ville going back to Sunday; in fact I made the mistake of doing so on another weather forum, which resulted in me quickly being called every name in the book, including from the host of the blog.
Anyway, is your thinking along the same line or are you holding firm with your various estimates from yesterday?
My thinking hasn’t changed much. I was saying 2-3 inches for Roanoke/ NRV, less to south, gradually upward to 6 inches/locally 10 along I-64 corridor. NWS is pretty much in line with that too. Heaviest snow is going to be NW Va along/west of I-81, it appears. That area gets heavy snow from initial moisture overnight and wraparound into higher elevations on Wednesday.
The U.S. 460 corridor from Blacksburg to Roanoke, Bedford and Lynchburg is a very low-confidence forecast area. I could easily see this bumping upward toward 4-5 inches or down to very little. I have major doubts about whether cold air will rush in to meet precipitation shield in early morning, especially Roanoke and east, and then of course comes the issue of where the southern edge of that heavy snow shield sets up on Wednesday.
The nowcasting begins. My favorite part.
I’m personally going to be off the blog for a couple of hours to get some rest this morning. Continue to comment if you like and we’ll get those up soon. Will check back in a little later.
Rest well Kevin -
31 here this morning, with cloudy skies, and little or no wind. Have frozen water droplets on the steps and on the car.
Brayden in Pulaski: I am so bummed about the storm I was so excited for it to take that southern track and of course at the last few days it decides to go north. I’m really bummed I was hoping for the big one.
is there still any chance we get over a foot? just wondering
any of yall know if the winter weather advisory will get upgraded to a winter storm warning for roanoke county?
Good Morning WJN! It is rainy and cold here in Buchanan. We are at 35 and had the porch covered in ice droplets this am. I have really enjoyed reading all the comments over the last few days. I wish the original forecast would come true, but will settle for any white stuff we can get. What are the thoughts on Botetourt? Thank you to all those who post and Kevin!
The “big one” was 20 years ago today… I had 18″ in Hollins.
People seem to get really bent out of shape with snowstorms. They see the a model run snowfall output they like and they hang onto that as gospel of what will happen, then get angry with meteorologists who issue a real forecast later that doesn’t coincide with that weather model. It’s part of why I’m kind of glad I didn’t get a chance to pursue meteorology as a field of study and eventual career.
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We see much the same thing in my current field though. Engineering plans often go through several iterations from initial planning, to conceptual design, to preliminary design, to final design. It can be a hazardous thing to have various sets of plans floating around the public forum, because once a person sees something, they believe that’s what will be built. So when the final, approved plans come out and they are dramatically different than a conceptual rendering done before actual site design, engineering, reviews, etc…they often get angry and claim a bait & switch was pulled…when in fact had they followed the progression of the project in its totality, it’s more like a slow transition as things get refined, nailed down, and designed.
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Seems like the same general process happens with weather forecasting…only on a much quicker timescale than an engineering project which can take years to bring to fruition. Part of following the weather, to me anyway, is looking at the possibilities, trying to make sense of the data and the weather models, then working to figure out what will actually happen. Sure, some folks are mad they won’t get snow…but getting mad at the forecasters for it? Seriously? Some folks need to grow up…or just chill out.
I am at the foot of Poor Mountain, elevation 3100 feet. Lots of humidity in the air, but way too warm to support any type of frozen precipitation. I think all the snow will go North of us here on the mountain top.
I don’t know if you all read back through the other blog post, but Griggs updated that the storm was tracking south of the Windy City and Kevin said that would be a good sign for the Star City if it did. I’m not giving up hope yet Kevin!
Jaye Clarke: If you’re referring to the 1993 Superstorm, it was actually March 12-13.
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Erin: As it stands now, Botetourt may be a very interesting county, with wide variance of snow totals south to north. Maybe closer to 2-3 inches on south side, and 6 plus on the north side. One model went from 2 to 10 last night across the county. But that could still all shift north/south some.
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Estelle: Think you may get more snow overnight at the back end of the first wave of precipitation than lower elevations.
40 degrees here in Bedford. Some light rain falling. We’re hoping to get some measurable snowfall from this “last-chance” storm. So far we’ve had nothing this winter outside of an icy dusting. If we get nothing but rain from this storm I’ll be so bummed and it will also be my first winter season living in Va. where we did not get any measurable snowfall (over an inch.) But I hope we get surprise and get a lot…I still have hope here in Bedford!
It is snowing in Chicago, too. Seems to be pretty much on track. That may or may not have much bearing on where things end up tomorrow.
We can still hope that vort digs down to the I-40 in NC. I know that should help Roanoke’s chances of getting more snow. I’m still standing on my gut feeling of 8-10 inches. I’ve been wrong before, and I’m sure I’ll be wrong again, but this morning when I walked outside the air just “felt” like snow was coming. Call it a womans intuition
Bedford is one of those places on the bubble. You’re a little farther northeast than Roanoke, so a little bit better chance of getting into the heavy snow on the backside of the low. But currently favors a bit farther north for the 4+ snow.
Although I am a registered member of the snow haters club, I don’t mind those around 5 inches or less. Eh, make that 4 inches. Plowing a 1000 foot gravel drive (mostly uphill) isn’t much fun.
While those of you wishing for a deep snow have been reading the weather geeks comments on why snow is or isn’t going to happen, I have been quietly sticking pins in my wife’s Christmas snow man. That’s absurd, you say! Well, all I can say is, we got the snow man around Christmas 2010. How much snow have you had in the last two years? We’ll never know for sure, will we……..
All jokes aside, I do hope the snow lovers get at least a few inches out of this and we can all move on to spring.
Speaking of Spring, did I mention I hate thunderstorms, too? It’s that gravel driveway thingy again.
The NWS just bumped up our predicted snowfall totals here in C’ville to 8-14 inches (previously 6-10). Perhaps this also will be good news for most of you further down in SW VA. Also, the snow in Chicago Kevin just alluded to seems to be (from my amateur perspective) mostly south of the city, which might be good news for all of us tomorrow as far as overall tracking.
Finally, as it stands now, the so-called sweet spot seems to have shifted slightly south again, and now is around the Staunton to Rockingham corridor, and not further north towards Winchester (see link). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ .
Again, perhaps this is good news for all of us…or perhaps its all trivial overall.
Other John: Interesting thoughts regarding meteorology/engineering. I think there is a communication disconnect that often takes place when the general public sees a single forecast model run and assumes it is a forecast of how things actually will end up, rather than a step in the process.
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In the big scheme of global weather patterns, having heavy snow hit Charlottesville to DC instead of Roanoke to Charlottesville from 5 days out is about like 1 inch difference on a 250-yard tee shot in golf. But someone living in Roanoke badly wanting snow, it’s running the bowling ball into the gutter 5 feet down the alley instead of the expected strike.
I live in Botetourt, near Buchanan, and I wish it wasn’t so interesting. Just a quick dusting to an inch would be just fine and on to Spring. If it wasn’t for snow, sleet, freezing rain and cold temps Winter would be fine.
Brian in Botetourt-1,129 feet
The new NAM does rotate more precipitation back on us behind the low, but is also warmer at the surface, so there’s more of a rain/snow mix outside of the very heaviest bands to the north. Not sure what to make of that. GFS and Euro both have been colder.
It’s H A R D to be a snow lover in the Roanoke Valley! There are worst places to be to see snow, but also low expectations of receiving it. We live in an active winter area with snow forecasts all around our area on a regular basis. Frustrating to get so many near misses or hear of all the snow totals just to our North, West, East, or even South on occasion.
Still hoping to be surprised by this storm (would be very happy with 4″) but after seeing the temp.’s go up over night expecting alot of cold rain. Hope someone gets that foot of snow-Charlottsville area bloggers, long-suffering Jared, DC folks. Good Luck
Kevin, any thought on Bent Mountain totals?
Nurse Shannon, I say we go out and do the snow dance to counter Newman’s Snowman pin cushion!
We had a little bit of sleet this morning. Right now it is just quiet and gray out there. While I do hope for snow I am not looking forward to the wind that is forecast to go with it in the NRV.
Bent Mountain will have a better chance to get snow in the initial wave than the Roanoke Valley in the early morning because its higher up, so will get colder earlier, as is typical. But with the daytime backside rotation behind the low, Bent Mountain’s chance will be a little less than Roanoke, being farther south. However, if snow does work its way that far south, it will accumulate more readily up there than in lower elevations.
Probably about 2 inches for Bent Mountain, but subject to big changes depending on how this storm evolves.
I’m game Tina B! I’m a hard core snow lover, always have been. Some of my best childhood memories revolve around playing in the snow.
Excellent discussion of the difficulty of snow forecasting.
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http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2013/03/05/why-its-so-difficult-to-forecast-snowfall/
NWS has us here in Greene for 10-14″ and just across the mountain in Harrisonburg they have 14-18″. Just to let ya know what they are saying up here.
Cloud cover thickening here in Harrisonburg, including those fascinating “fish-scale” clouds. Breeze is picking up. Any NRV snowlovers are welcome to make the trek up 81 and get snowed in at our place…4 miles west of Harrisonburg!
While all of this speculation is fun, I say we just watch and wait – I’m an AFBrat and grew up in several states (inc. MD, TX, FL, CA and VA) and also lived in CO as an adult, and am used to the vagaries and extremes of weather. One time we had a BIG snow out at Edwards AFB, CA (in the Mojave) on my birthday (Jan.4) – big enough to build snow forts! That was back in the early 70′s. I also remember some thunderstorms that would rattle your teeth up in MD. Newman would have loved those! My point is that Mother Nature is very fickle. Just when you think you know what’s going on, she yanks the rug out from under you! And now that I think of it, we don’t get much of the weather from my youth – our climate has really changed, hasn’t it?
It’s “hot” in Goodview, currently 43.7. Not really expecting much, just the way it’s been this year. Thank goodness for my Snowshoe trips. Saw another 8 inches over this past weekend.
KM is it me or does the 12z GFS look colder and wetter in our neck of the state?
Jared, I’ll believe those totals when I see them. It just doesn’t feel like snow to me and it seems like rain rarely changes over to snow as fast as the mets say it will happen. I’m thinking more along the lines of 3-4″ of slush. Good luck to you in Western Greene Co.
Great article, Kevin. Thanks for sharing.
Same here Nurse Shanon (sorry I misspelled your name earlier!) I lived in Salem until I was 8 – in the 60s and early 70s and I remember getting so excited about snow. Then we moved to Florida. So I lived a snowless existence for a number of years until I moved to Maryland for a couple of years. We got a good bit of snow there in the mid 80s if I recall. Then it was back to Florida and another 2 decades of a snowless existence unless I was visiting VA and it happened to snow (which it did on a number of occasions). I know it can be a pain in the rear, but it is such a lovely change from the brown landscape of winter!
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/final-snow-map.html
Final Snow Map Ya’ll.
GFS is a bit colder, wetter. Has Roanoke straddling the 3-4 inch line by 7 a.m. tomorrow (actually doesn’t snow much after that, and accumulation even melts some during day).
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth024.gif
I don’t like your map Zach LOL Roanoke needs to be GREATER than 2 inches. Although, you did go out on a limb early and say that Roanoke-south and east wouldn’t get much of anything.
It sounds like SW Roanoke County won’t be getting the big snow storm that I was hoping for – I was really looking forward to a day cuddled up at home with the kiddos. However, these forecasts of high 60s for the weekend sounds really promising! Kevin, will the nice weather be indicative of the end of this long cold winter? Can we finally prepare for spring? My husband and I are itching to start some spring landscaping this weekend while the weather is nice… would it be premature?
Enjoy your bigun Jared! I’m ready to for possible 60′s and getting my camper out at the end of the month!
of course, the line runs right through Roanoke!
Well, JA, Climate Prediction Center isn’t very promising for warmth 1-2 weeks out, after a warmup works through.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Sleeting here in B burg despite 39 degree temps
DT has gone silent and has blocked everyone from posting on his page. He was adamant about his forecast, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to verify right now. The behavior is a little childish. Once again, thank you for your professionalism Kevin.
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We’ll just have to see what this one does. I could easily see us getting nothing. I could also easily see us getting 4″+.
Kevin, good sports analogies as well. People do seem to take models to be actual forecasts…when they’re not. It’s part of the problem of taking a single weather model verbatim, rather than looking at multiple models, over several runs, to try to figure out a reasonable compromise that also meshes with local knowledge and general experience with past systems.
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I grew up a Navy brat, living in Georgia, Michigan, Italy, and Virginia Beach. Obviously, only Michigan had winters with regularl and significant snow, but I was too young to remember that. I do recall one of the very rare snowfalls that hit Naples, Italy when I was a kid though…it was a lot of fun, even at only an inch or 2.
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Winters in Virginia Beach could vary wildly. The average annual snowfall there is something like 6-8″. But much like the trouble in using the average snowfall here to measure a winter toward, down there that sometimes meant we could go a winter or 2 without any significantly measurable snow, then get whacked by a couple nor’easters the next, picking up multiple inches and sometimes close to a foot. A couple times, we topped the 1-foot mark, but it takes a strong storm, usually pretty decently offshore for that to happen.
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I am definitely looking forward to warmer weather now though. I’ve been making a list of projects I need to work on this weekend, so I’m looking forward to hopefully knocking most of them out by the time the sun sets Sunday evening.
Brandon, I wholeheartedly agree regarding the behavior of the other met in question, and suffice to say I will not be frequenting his forum from this point forward. I made the mistake of politely posting my guesstimate for C’ville snowfall totals (6-7 inches) on Monday, and he (along with a few of his minions) immediately ripped me to shreds for daring to disagree with his estimation at the time, which I believe was more in the 12-16 range.
But, its my fault a bit, as I should have known better to comment on a forum in which the ringleader commonly calls other mets idiots and other harsh names, including a particular few in Roanoke that previous times ended up being far more accurate than his often overstated projections (such as the last storm). Speaking of projections, seemingly with every storm such as this one he projects wildly optimistic numbers that rarely materialize, all while impugning others that dare question such numbers of his.
With all that being said, we’re very lucky to have Kevin; its by far the best weather blog going, without question.
44 (had been 45 earlier), overcast, light breeze out of the south – lunch time up on Doppler Ridge.
When Dad retired from the AF and came back to C’burg in ’76, I was a teen, and I remember regular, significant snow. The kind you needed chains on your tires for, the kind you could make snowmen from and not see the ground afterwards, at least 6-12″ stuff or more, I’m guessing. You could count on it not being a dusting. Snow lovers were in their glory. We had regular, full seasons of weather back then. Ah, the good ole days. Spring and Fall – my two favoriet seasons, seem to be disappearing. And Winter has been turned into a roller coaster ride!
As a Marker at this time, I will note that my “Official / Unofficial” Seasonal
Total Snowfall is 11.6″ at my domicile.
Whatever transpires — or DOES NOT — during the coming 48 hours is
a huge guesstimate. The sweet-spot for Roanoke County seems to be
in the 2″–4″ range. We shall see, friends and kiddies, we shall see.
The baffled lamb shall bleat forever, or until shearing reveals its awful secret.
And, the squeaky wheel gets the grease, but the quacking duck gets shot.
As a Snow Lover — Blessings and Bountiful Snowfall to all!
It’s 47 and lightly sleeting here in Hollins area
Kevin , what do you expect to see the northern part of lynchburg get? And when will the snow start?
Been having some off and on sleet at my location south of Roanoke, too.
I wonder if this 2-4-inch range the weather pros seem to be coalescing around for Roanoke (me included, going for 2-3 inches last night) will just prove to be an effort in vain to hit a non-existent middle ground, when the reality will be zero or 5+.
Nothing happening here in Roanoke. (didn’t even have to walk outside to tell you that). I wish it would snow until people start dry heaving!!
Kevin I like the hedging above
I know you’re busy but if you could answer my question, it would be appreciated but if you can’t its fine!
Kevin my county is under advisory but i should not look for much here right?
Dallas J: Maybe I need a doctor to explain, but why would snow lead to dry heaving?
Kevin, I have never posted, but just wanted to tell you that I read your blog quite often, and appreciate all the time and effort you put into it! Thanks!
Guess I need to mea culpa too. Boy was I way off as usual. I thought this would be the one for the year but it won’t be for several locations. Sorry if I made the Snow Lovers dance for nothing as well as cry wolf again. When will I ever learn.
Enjoy the snow for me whomever gets it.
‘m off to the friendly skies for a few days.
12:20 Sun just popped out in Pulaski. There must be some really dry air around. On the radar it looks like the precipitation heading this way from the SW is drying up before it gets to SWVA.
Nick: North Lynchburg is pretty much in the same boat with the rest of us on the 460 corridor, likely looking at the heavy action staying just north but just maybe slipping a little farther south. A little better chance than Roanoke being a bit north and quite a bit east. Best guess is around 2-3 inches. North Lynchburg may get more than south Lynchburg!
Quagmire: What, did you not correctly predict mixed rain and sleet showers today? I’m not aware of any snowstorm that has missed yet.
Kevin, I have been following for a while now, thanks for all you do and try to teach this weather fanatic who is kind of a dummy. What is your take on Rockbridge County, specifically the Buena Vista area? I am on information overload with all the different forecasts and model runs I have seen over the past 2-3 days. Shew!
Temp. at airport was 48 at noon, now it’s down to 43. 5 degree drop in half an hour?
Kevin M: Not just “snow” my friend. I’m wanting snow like ’96 or even more. I’m sure the sight of snow approaching one’s rooftop would indeed trigger “dry heaving” among other bodily functions.
Angela: I think it’s a close call for you … between getting 4+ inches and getting like 10+ inches. If the storm goes belly up and busts for you, I think that means 2 inches. Rockbridge County looks to be well placed under almost any scenarios for snow.
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Dallas J: There is a historical record of a 36-inch snow in the late 1800s in Roanoke. So 25+ isn’t impossible … but won’t happen this time. Count yourself blessed if you get 1/10 of that this go round.
Sun is trying to come out in Salem. Temp. is 44 degrees. Don’t know if that’s good or bad or irrevalent!
Kevin M: Au contraire mon frere, I believe we had 37″ in ’92 I think. Seems like I remember greater than 36″ snowfalls without going back to the 1800′s.
It would be funny if we didn’t even get much rain out of this. The first big blob of rain coming in from Kentucky dried up crossing the mountains. So far the second wave is drying up as well. It may be evening before the atmosphere saturates enough for much precipitation to reach the ground.
45 degrees and cloudy here. I have a feeling there will be a lot of spoiled milk left on the shelves.
We @$#@ed sure won’t be able to figure out the weather in our lifetimes but can someone figure out how the projected intake of milk (and bread) goes up exponentially with the forecasted accumulation of snow?
Roanoke officially got 16 inches in 1993 Superstorm. 25 total in 1996, and 22 in 24 hours, is official record dating back to 1912, for Roanoke.
I wasn’t here for any of those so didn’t measure them, but that’s what on the official books.
Kevin M: Hmmm. Ok, must have just seemed like more with all the excitement going on. Thanks!
Snow Hounds..Looks like Snowshoe is getting a real wet snow at the moment.
See it snow here (for free) ===> http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-snowshoe-shavers-centre.php <===
Kevin, one thing that has always bugged me about those ’96 totals. They list 25 as the storm total and 22 in a 24 hour perdiod (can’t remember the exact time frame for that). We were in Roanoke Co (near Oak Grove) at the time. It started snowing and sticking/accumulating Friday night before 8PM and didn’t stop until well after dark on Sunday night (almost 48 hours). Just never could grasp how they only received 3 inches in the 24 hours outside of the 24-hour record period.
My students and I have been checking out the different weather models ( I am an Elementary teacher). It is interesting to see their predictions compared with the experts. It seems awfully mild outside today but this has been the case with several snow events in the past. Half of them are convinced we will not have school tomorrow and the other half think that we need to try and rely on the old snow-myth stand-bys : inside out pajamas, ice in the toilet, and spoons under the pillows. Any advice for my little weather bugs?
Stick a fork in winter for Roanoke southward. Done. Over it.
Well, the sun is trying it’s best to come out here in BV right now. This does not make me a very happy camper.
45F in bedford right now, hoping we dont hit 50F today but thats just me. fingers crossed for 4″! really want enough for a snowman but ill take what i can get.
Only thing, skibum, is I’ve heard pretty much that exact phrase repeated on here about every week since mid-December. Whether you’re over it or not, I’ve got to follow whatever comes down the pike. And it does look right now as if more of March will be cold than warm.
I’m in Robinson District of Pulaski Co. Hard to believe but my thermometer says it’s 50 degrees. Doesn’t feel like it though. I haven’t seen a drop of rain since about 7am when we had a VERY short “spit” from a passing cloud.
Euro showin’ any last minute heroics?
Oh, that was not directed at you, Kevin. You do an outstanding job on here! Please don’t think I’m being critical of the effort you put in here on each and every system that affects this area. This has not been an easy system to forecast ( nor have most of them ). My frustration lies with the weather itself in this area…it’s as bipolar as some of the commenters on here.
Maybe March has another system up it’s sleeve..I’ll wait and see. Again, thank you for this awesome resource and the time you put into it. It’s very much appreciated, and I imagine mostly thankless.
WxSynopsis on Facebook is still saying he believes that this will happen:
https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis?ref=ts&fref=ts#!/photo.php?fbid=492141247520121&set=a.199524860115096.53601.199289573471958&type=1&theater
I’d love to see that much snow. I just don’t understand where he is getting his information.
Made it to 49.2 in Jordantown (now 48.5) and 48.1 in Goodview (now 47.9).
Okay,all you weather guru’s. I am looking at radar in real time. While the sun is outside my classroom at Radford High School. I see heavy rain and a big yellow dab coming from west. When I zoom out on Radar I see rain covering entire state of kentucky. Drop the models…what do you all see when you look at radar…pink and white is north of kentucky still. Does this mean the cold air dropping in isn’t coming as fast as snow lovers like me would like? Is there still enough moisture feeding in. What does real time radar suggest to you guys?
Since you guys are on the topic of the ’96 storm, I was fortunate enough (or unfortunate since I had to stay an extra day because they couldn’t plow the roads) to be just down from Snowshoe in Marlinton that night. Went to bed with 6 inches on the ground and woke up to 42 inches! Vehicles merely looked like white lumps in all the snow. Now THAT was a storm!
Kevin I now we’re now approaching the nowcasting period but it was such a “battle” between the Euro and GFS leading up to this storm I have 2 questions:
1. Which model was closer to predicting the acual track this storm has taken thus far?
2. What are now the biggest differences between the model in regards to the projected track from this point forward?
Skibum: Didn’t take it as being against me. Just an observation about how winter may go on in some degree whether folks are tired of it or not.
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Frank the tank: Things look about like they’re supposed to right now. Though really it’s more about the development of the low in North Carolina that doesn’t exist yet than anything on radar now.
Does the low that the WPC (formerly the HPC) show tracking thru Kentucky impact where the coastal low develops? Their track took it thru Kentucky but the actual low looks like it has dropped south into Tn. With all the north-south talk on here just wondered if this southward movement would have any bearing on the big picture. Keeping hope alive.
Euro and GFS got to be so close at end there wasn’t a ton of difference. Latest Euro shows the bulk of snow scraping just north of Roanoke as most models do.
Surface low today is projected to move NE into Kentucky and pull warm, moist air aloft over cooler air, then sweep a cold front through. Along that cold front in NC, interacting with the upper-air vort, will be where the new low forms. Don’t see anything hugely out of line with forecasts so far.
I’m going to be off the blog for a few hours this afternoon and evening to take care of family matters. Will be approving comments from time to time. I’ll plan a new post this evening. Don’t foresee any huge changes between now and then.
Kevin…Botetourt Co. has a Winter Storm Warning and Roanoke Co. was downgraded this morning to a Winter Weather Advisory. Do you think Roanoke will be upgraded again as storm approaches? I don’t see Daleville/Fincastle getting any more snow than Roanoke being in extreme southern Botetourt only 10 minutes or so from Roanoke. I still can’t believe DT’s rants about Roanoke getting 12-16″ initially, then up to 8″ later. I am tired of his overhyping and horrible, vulgar demeaning language he tosses about if you don’t agree with him and all his backside kissers! I think I’m done with that site. You provide professional, educational, fun, moral and enjoyable blogs for us. Thanks!!
WE are still on a Winter Storm Watch for far SWVa waiting on Morristown to either put us on a Warning, a Winter Weather Advisory or whatever???
Should be out by 4 pm. Still raining hard in Abingdon and temps in the low 40′s.
Is the low now forecasted to pass over Richmond!? That would be a cold rain with very little swich over right? Hoping to be surprised in the AM but feeling wet and flakeless right now.
After a couple hours of light rain here in Bland it’s now coming down pretty hard so the moisture is making it over East River Mountain from WV.
Kevin, I just wanted to thank you for this blog. Its my go to place for weather info. I am a snow lover, but dont consider any of the scenarios you present as set in stone as some others seem to. Just wanted you to know how many people appreciate you & your coverage of all the various snow possibilities. Kuddos to you for all your work.
Scott: You are sort of on the razor’s edge of current guidance where the heavier snow band sets up Wednesday. May be a big difference in what northern Botetourt gets vs southern Botetourt. You probably will get at least a little more than Roanoke, and maybe a surprising amount more if the heavy snow area sets up just right.
Todd. Last I saw low expected to go over Tidewater. Much more west/north than that and we end up in a dry slot when the snow band develops on the backside.
Is it wrong I’m holding onto late arrival = more snow. I know I’m holding onto the last grasp for some snow.
Kevin.. Any chance we get pleasantly surprised and get a little more than expected? Trying to remain positive! And..are you still going 2-4 for NRV?
Sleeting here in northern Roanoke county
I went and checked DT’s FB page and it appears he has issued a retraction/apology/explanation as to why he was so off base? At least that’s how I’m reading it. At any rate, from the looks of the comments etc, (and yes, I saw some of the vulgar language) I am glad I have never frequented his page. Very ugly and unprofessional. Proud to be a part of WJN!!
Still doing the snow dance, but still not getting my hopes up either. Not really thrilled to see that March is going to be cold (and probably snowless) – if it’s going to be cold I’d rather have snow on the ground!
Drizzling here in my valley.
Sleetin at 4:15 PM.
What’s happening your way DC?
Snow currently mixing with rain on the Virginia Tech campus.
Umm getting lots of sleet/rain even some flakes despite 42. Is this going to cool things down faster and lead to a changed forecast. Decks already treacherous.
Kevin,
I just heard you talking about the snow on NPR. Thanks for great weather coverage!!!!
Sleet/rain mix just started falling here. One of these days I will be able to report the temperature, if I ever decide to replace my thermometer.
The boss just told me to head home early. Apparently, it’s sleeting on Christiansburg mountain and freezing on our office’s back porch.
It started sleeting here about an hour ago with a few flakes mixed in. Now it’s raining steadily with a little sleet mixed in.
When will we know where The Low developes?
All that prep work (big bottle of red wine, plenty of dark chocolate & half a dozen good books from the library) in anticipation of being house bound and without power for a couple of days and …..pffft!
Now if I spend a couple of days in the recliner with my nose in a book or two I’ll just look like a lazy boozer. LOL
It’s dropped to 37 F in Galax(2600 ft) w/ steady lite rain/drizzle. The WeatherBug forcast was for temps to stay around 40F till Midnight then drop. Maybe the frozen stuff will start earlier than predicted here.
few snow flakes mixing in
Raining here in Narz and 40. It was sleeting hard when I left Hokieland and over the mountain through Newport. It started to let up some and turn to rain as I headed west. My car thermometer said it was 34 as I went up Brush Mountain and had reached 38 by the time I got home. Still holding out hope for snow. This time of year, I have to have hope, it’s so gray otherwise around here!
Drove back from Richmond this afternoon and saw the VDOT Winter Weather Advisory signs once I reached Lynchburg. It was actually a nice day for a drive with just a little rain in Bedford County.
I just had an amazing experience on my drive home from a medical appt which was on Franklin St. SW in Roanoke city, close to the Webber Expressway/Rte 220. Temp when I got in my car at about 4:35 was 48*. Kept on dropping, and dropping, saw some sleet, and it was 39* for the last 3/4 mile, all in 15 minutes. Is that what you call “Dynamic Cooling?” I love all this moisture!
Did the temp in SW City drop 4 degrees? Currently 41. Does a continued drop like that mean earlier snow?
I totally agree with everything said here about the other met. It’s unprofessional and uncalled for, but maybe he’s getting exactly what he wants. Points being people mentioning his name, talking about his tons of snow, and following his blog. It could be his grand scheme like Accu-somebody. What we sometimes fail to realize here is that our forum is based on facts and observations, and rarely opinion and speculation. That alone is what will make this forum blossom, and could quite possibly be very profitable for the Times and KM also. I’m glad to be a part of this folks!
Just did a big snow dance to bring more snow our way.! The temps here in Floyd are about 5 degrees colder than the NWS and TWC are reporting. Hopefully we will turn to snow earlier than expected.
Other John, comment 13 this morning, I have been thinking for days now the exact same thing that you mentioned. Many folks see what they like, and are reluctant to accept what the reality sometimes dishes out. I used to be in that set, am much less so now. One of the very best things I have learned over the years here is to follow the trends. When they start all going up for a big snow, like the epic 12-18-09 monster when every model run seemed to bump up the forecasted inches, this snow hater had to run up every white flag I could find, because there was no hope in bucking those trends. This one has been mostly the opposite case, especially for all of us living in ROA or South, SW, or west.
I see the NWS changed our forecast to mostly a mix of rain and snow…don’t want to call it a bust until it’s over but….waaaahhhhhh!!! I hope they called this one wrong, but I have a feeling they didn’t. Total accumulation forecast to be less than 2″ *sigh*
Shanon, comment 15. Who on earth is “Griggs?” C’mon, call me Doug! :>)
Maybe I am just clinging onto false hope but it is 39 at my location in Cave Spring and TWC’s hourly says we should be at 44….keep dropping baby!
Sleet coating deck in Bonsack @ 1250′ & 39 degrees
Let it snow WJN:) I might not get any cuz km really south but i think some of you guys will enjoy!!!
Ha, Rigel, best comment ever. Your plan sounds lovely! Well, the goat is out there being very vocal and the chickens went into hiding. That’s their usual behavior pre-storm
Rain at my house with just a few big wet flakes mixed in. Temp had dropped about 7 degrees and now reading 39. I know its only a slight chance this turns for me, but fingers crossed. To go sports analogy here its like the bottom of the 9th down by 3 runs with 2 out no one on, and the heart of the line up coming up. Sure we got a chance to pull it out, but the odds are stacked.
I was out and about the last couple of hours, drove back through the heavy sleet in Salem and a long period of splotchy melted-snow raindrops splattering on my windshield.
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This was the initial band of precipitation encountering cold and dry air aloft, triggering evaporational cooling. Sometimes this can cool the column enough to go to all snow. In this situation, with no high to the north positioned to wedge cold air in, and a low to the west sweeping some milder air aloft, it will probably park in the mid to upper 30s at the surface as the atmosphere saturates.
Doug…thanks for your reply! Initially, I was really excited about this storm, but over the weekend, I can;t remember when exactly, I looked at the model data and just shook my head and said, nope…it’s not hapening here. I wasn’t really upset, I just shrugged my shoulders and thought ahead to the weekend and working in the yard. I’m still a bit bummed we may actually not see much of any snow, but it is what it is. No sense getting all twisted up over what cannot be controlled.
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And Kevin…sometime midday Monday, I began seriously questioning whether or not a solid inch of snow might officially accumulate locally, except further north and in higher elevations. The newest NWS map barely depicts Roanoke and Blacksburg topping 1 inch…it’s plausible neither makes it an it’s another busted snow meter…amazingly enough.
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I’m pretty sure I speak for a bunch of people when I say that I’ll be glad when this quirky winter comes to an end.
NEWMAN!!!! Comment 21!! LOL LOL LOL Sam Oakey and I had not thought of the Christmas doll voodoo thing. Great creativity on your part. I am thinking of retiring from the post office, and I may as well make it a double play. If SamOakeysan doesn’t mind, would you like to be the new Chairman of the Snow Haters Club?
The new map from the HPC indicates they think there’s a greater chance of all of SW Viriginia getting a decent snow now, than early this morning.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
I’m worried Kevin, still 44 up here. Hope this temperature starts dropping! Tattered get use to Giles winter weather. I was there all weekend and it snow showered all weekend. I actually miss the cold snowy winters down there because we don’t see a lot of snow here. Its funny how once you get to I81 the sun comes out and the snow showers end, which happened Sunday on the way home.
Down to 35º here and a few really sloppy wet snowflakes mixed in the rain.
44 is nothing to be concerned about up there, Jared. We got a 6-incher down here last February when it was 52 at midnight 8 hours before it started snowing and never got below 33 til the snow was almost over.
Agreed Mr. Griggs. This moisture might look rite good come July. My PWS shows 0.12″. Not sure if I trust it, but was the highest total of any PWS for our area.
Down to 38 where I’m at in downtown Roanoke.
33 and light rain up here on Doppler Ridge. Rain started out as light sleet at 3 but is now all rain. Still breezy out there.
Rigel loved your comment!
My word, I am only up to comment 50, and quite a few of you have made me roar with laughter!! I agree with comments of quite a few others, that this blog is WONDERFUL!!! Hey, Dan, if your forecasted snowfall for Charlottesville verifies, you ought to go back on DT’s forum or blog and make one last comment: “I TOLD YOU SO!!!”
It is hard to believe that a meteorologist and a weather expert in many ways like DT can be that childish …..
It is still as of 6:30pm, 45 degrees in Wise, and even worse it is still 36 at Fred’s (Beech Mtn., NC at 5,028′). The cold is air is not moving in from the west, nor is it moving in from the upper levels of the atmosphere. Not good. Not good.
Well, it’s not really supposed to be cold at either one of those sites, yet, Blacksburg Mike. But you’re right, it’s not impressive. Typical borderline March dynamic cooling event. The temperature has obviously been colder above us somewhere or we wouldn’t have had the sleet this afternoon.
Wish we would’ve had one decent snow here in southwest va this winter but guess we will be waiting till next winter…seems that’s what we say every winter wait till next year…
Great observation Mike by pulling up Beech Mountain. Good signal that the temps that are close to freezing now are not a result of Cold Air wrapping in yet but rather a result of probably some atmospheric cooling mixing down.
Temperature near Lexington is down 8 degrees in the past hour or so, down to 36, and the rain at my house has now changed to big wet snowflakes. Starting to stick on the deck as well.
Can someone point me to DT’s blog? I would love to see what all the fuss is about
36 and falling on the river. No flakes yet….
When is the snow actually supposed to start? Do you think that Roanoke City Schools will be closed tomorrow? They normally close for just barely any snow, if the snow covers the roads AT ALL they will most like close schools. Is this snow predicted to cover the roads?
36F(37F according to the weather underground app) here in bedford. any chance we will see an earlier transition to snow? is the temperature supposed to keep dropping? thanks for the updates!
May not make any difference on temps not dropping fast enough. If you look closely at national radar loop, you can see that as LP transfers its energy to the coast that all precip (rain/snow/whatever) will shut off about 6 hours from now (that’s right, don’t expect any significant precip after about at 1:30am in RNK/NRV). It’s another 6 hour event! Unbelievable.
The question then is how much we get rotating behind the low in NC. That’s where any significant snow would occur. Hard to tell how much rotates south into 460 corridor or farther south.
Getting lots of reports of sleet/ snow along I-64 corridor .. Alleghany and Rockbridge counties. We’ll see if any of that can work southeast overnight.
It’s 38 degrees in Roanoke already! What’s the chance that the southwest may end up getting a little more snow than planned? @Kevin
According to radar, Bburg is getting snow. Any reports of that from anyone?
Its snowing hard and the roads have a light covering near Goshen. My gravel driveway is completely covered. I am at 1850 ft.
Was cloudy and 49 when i got home from work at 5:00.Its now down to 42 and the rain is getting very close now.Still calling for a big one up here but it has to drop a lot more before it can snow.
Roanoke is so close to the 3-6 inch range on WSLS 10 & SO close to the Winter Storm Warning. Is there any chance we could see more snow than we think?
Wdbj reporting rain turning to snow along the I-81 corridor in Pulaski co/nrv. Can anyone here verify?
I think if Blacksburg were getting snow we’d be getting flooded with reports. Appears to be another case of the automatic data site at the Virginia Tech Airport misreading the precipitation type (reported as light snow there now).
Keep in mind that most publicly available radar views DO NOT really detect different precipitation types, they merely color a best guess on the precipitation field based on surface reports. Dual Pol technology makes seeing precipitation types above the surface easier but this data is not infused into all the public radar views available on the Internet.
Still rain here in Blacksburg even though the radar shows snow.
When will this move out of the area tomorrow? Or is it too soon to tell?
118. Tayree, my wife is from Narz. Do they still have the Narz far alarm on the radio when there is a fire? I grew up in Smyth Co. and miss the snow which we rarely see in the flatlands. Sorry all you snow lovers appear to be missing the BIG one. Kevin this site is wonderful. Every time I read it I learn something while being entertained by all the comments.
It is raining in Christiansburg
Rain mixed with sleet here on the Mont/Roa county line. the deck is crunchy but it is melting.
.Only Rain and 35 degrees here in Fairlawn
Hearing the ice against our windows here in Grandin Village
Blah!!!! I was hoping there was some snow!
Back to heavy sleet and 36 here in Bonsack
Been snowing up in Fincastle for a bit, big wet flakes mixed with rain and 38-degrees. It was in the 40′s just several hours ago so here comes our dynamic evaporational cooling or whatever they call it!!
Sleet starting to mix in with rain on the river, temps ticked up a bit to 35, pressure dropping 1002 right now. Friend from Giles just texting said snow starting to mix in.
@Hope in Roanoke, if Roanoke City closes they will wait until 5:30am to do so. I have rarely seen them ever close the night before even if it is actively snowing. Unfortunately they have been doing this for close to 20 years, it gets old after a while. I’m close to downtown and it is 38 degrees,and pouring rain. If it was only a little bit colder we would be getting buried in snow. I hope to wake up to find schools closed and a few inches of snow on the ground.
Kevin, thanks so much for want you do(First post)! I just drove from Blacksburg to Pembroke (Giles Co,) and while the precip is still mostly rain, snow is starting to mix in.
Snowing moderately in troutville. Huge snowflakes deck and mulch have a thin layer already. Temps dropping. We may get more than predicted
Kevin, if you get yet another miss this week on the snow meter for Blacksburg, I think you …. check that, ALL OF US …. ought to send some priests over there and have it examined to see if it is possessed by weather demons. And those demons read this blog, too. “Heh, heh, let’s wait to see what Myatt predicts on his snow meter, then we will tantalize him but ultimately leave him on the wrong side of one inch. ”
For Blacksburg to come in with less than an inch from this when it looked so promising 3 days ago is really bizarre.
why is the low in kentucky i thought it was going to be on nc/va line whats up with that
The initial low goes into Kentucky, as expected. A new low then forms in NC.
Starting to spit some snow out here with the heavy sleet
I just put up a new post that’s actually now a little old in light of recent reports of snow and sleet in more of the area, but you can your observations to make it fresh.
35 degrees and snowing big, huge flakes in Lexington. Not much sticking where I am, but I hear areas west already have a 1/2″ from the past 45 minutes of snowfall.
when do they expect it to form in nc and where i hope bedford isnt in snowhole again just raining here but its definetly colder
Raining heavily at time here in town of Floyd. Heading home and will park the low clearance car, no 4WD this week, at the front of the property and do the five minute hike up to the house where I have the 20 year old beater with chains on and I got my milk on Sunday, just in case. Looking likely that I miss out on any significant snow which is quite alright with me.
If I had snow approaching my rooftop, I’d be dry heaving for sure – not from excitement but from the misery. It would take a week to dig out, the power would likely be out for days, the cattle would go hungry (if I could even find them!) and the roof would probably collapse along with the barn. Yea, I’d be sick.
Thanks Kevin for your weather mojo. SE Roanoke on the bluff above the river is rain, rain and rain. Enjoyed last nights posts and gonna hang around for tonight’s.
Craig Co schools just announced two hour delay. I wonder how much snow is in Paint Bank. Probably zero. No snow in Christiansburg.
If you think folks on Kevin’s blog are confused by the models, look at tonight’s forecast discussion on the NWS Wilmington, DE site. “…uncertainty reigns!” and later “headlines are posted and the gridded tools have quite a mess on our hands.” Forecasters should be honest like this more often. We can’t expect a perfect forecast every day.
Snowing big fat flakes here up on Brush Mtn (elevation 2401 ft) just outside the Blacksburg town limit at 9:10. Bring on the snow!
Rain, Sleet and Snow here.
Snowing and raining in Salem. Huge flakes coming down rapidly.
Ok — 20 minutes later it is now raining. That stinks!
It’s snaining in cave spring