Leaning toward Wed. snow
Well here’s the little swirl of clouds crossing into Montana that’s going to be cause of a swirl of rumors, mayhem and confusion the next 3 days. This is the “vorticity maximum” or “vort max” or just “vort” that will dive southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and then curve east and northeast in the jet stream flow. As it does that, it will help deepen a surface low-pressure system in North Carolina that will trek eastward on Wednesday. Behind this low, a large area of snow is likely to develop over much of Virginia. The parameters and intensity of that snow area are what are difficult to nail down, and indeed, may not be fully deciphered until the event is ongoing. But we will do our best to keep up with some forecast trends here as they continue to develop (and my schedule allows).
A couple points:
* Forecast guidance on Sunday night generally leans toward snowfall of at least an inch or two, possibly more, maybe much more, occurring in the Roanoke and New River valleys northeastward on Wednesday. Most guidance keeps the heaviest amounts, some possibly topping a foot, along or north of Interstate 64, but some models extend them farther southward. South and west of the valleys — let’s say southwest of a Martinsville to Wytheville to Bluefield line — there appears to be less chance of significant snowfall, but this may change. I think the back edge of the wraparound snow on Wednesday will probably end up on the I-77 corridor.
* There will be two waves of precipitation to watch. The first arrives late Tuesday, mostly as rain, but possibly mixed precipitation. Overnight and early Wednesday, the back edge of this rain shield may change to snow as the upper levels cool and the freezing level lowers in the atmosphere. Later Wednesday, as the low deepens, a large area of snow will wraparound to the west. How far west that area extends varies on the models. This will be where any heavy snow will occur.
* I’m leaning toward this being a significant winter storm with numerous to widespread 4+ inch amounts in much of our region. But I’m still not quite fully convinced. I think it’s very possible that part of our region could get huge snow totals while others get little or nothing, maybe not in the geographic or topographic manner we normally expect.
Below is the weekly snow meter for Roanoke and Blacksburg.
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Snow meter 3/4-3/10
(0 to 10 scale of likelihood of 1 inch of snow)
Roanoke — 7 snowflakes *******
Blacksburg — 7 snowflakes *******
Outlook: In the 14th week of 15 in the snow meter season, we finally have an obvious, well-organized winter storm in the first three days of the week. As a strong upper-level storm system dives south of us and a surface low deepens over North Carolina on Wednesday, moderate to heavy snow is likely to develop for several hours in much of Virginia. Forecast guidance on Sunday seems to suggest Northern Virginia will have the best chance of larger amounts, some over a foot possible, with Southwest Virginia’s prospects a bit fuzzy. But my charge here isn’t to guess whether Roanoke and Blacksburg get a foot or get 4 inches of snow this week, but only an inch. I think it’s likely, though not certain, that those two sites do get a least an inch in the upcoming storm system. I would be silly not to go for higher numbers this week after a winter of so many puny, borderline, mixed muck storm systems.
Looking back: Not enough fractions of an inch (0.2 on Thursday morning) for an inch at Blacksburg in a week when I picked six flakes, so the losing streak goes to seven weeks and clinches a losing season there. Meanwhile, I’m within a win of my goal of 10 for Roanoke, with a win this past week for no measurable snow and only picking four flakes. Guessing what minor systems will do five or more days out has proven even more difficult than I thought it would be. Let’s see how I can do with a strong storm only three days out.
Current records: 9-4 for Roanoke, 5-8 for Blacksburg.
March 4, 2013 - 12:47 AM
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I’m hearing word that the 0z Euro trended abit north? Is this true? and how much of an impact would this have at our snow totals if the 0z euro was to be taken literally?
Euro is consistent
I don’t have access to maps yet, but hearing from reliable sources that taken literally, Euro cuts off snow similar to NAM, mostly a little east/northeast of Roanoke.
Still too early to get too literal on that. Though I wonder sometimes if this will end up being Bedford getting some back for the Jan. 17 snow hole.
I’m going to bed. I may not be on really early tomorrow either. 9 a.m. or so. Gotta get some rest somewhere before we get into the real storm run-up.
Looked more indepth in the 00z euro, it seems we will get snow, but not as much as the previous euro runs. It almost seems as if the duration of the event in terms of moderate/heavy frozen precip will be shortened by the slight tweaks the Euro has done tonight.
Kevin, is it still possible that we can get double digit amounts? And could this system be potentially one of those systems that could rely more on current observation and tracking more than model analysis? Essentially is it theoretically possible that there can be a shift south and there can be enough of a vort dig that goes beyond what model consensus, or lack thereof, is showing? I hope i’m using the right terminology here, apologies if im not.
Snowing pretty good in radford. Parking lot covered
WJN….a classy weather blog…thanks Kevin and WJN peeps!!!
Once again, this was blown WAY out of proportion, WAY to early!! I don’t understand what the point is of getting everybody worked up with the discussion of amounts ranging 12-18 + inches?! Good job Zach! for calling bust early on! There were a couple of us that never believed the big one was comin! Lol! 1-3 inches! I’m still stickin with! The roanoke valley snow hole curse continues on! Great models we have aren’t they! Lol
WOW…i give up!
The NWS has issued Winter Storm watches and look Franklin County excluded again. Seriously!?! I hope we get buried under tons of snow!! I’m really craving the Big UN before winter goes out and spring comes in.
I find it odd that Monroe Co. (WV) is not under the storm watch but most counties around it are. I know that may change.
Yes, David in Salem, DT knows an awful lot about weather, and I have a lot of admiration for him when he issues his thoughts about long-term trends, but he has all the “professionalism” of a foul-mouthed 14-year-old when it comes to his use of language. Sometimes extremely volatile personality.
How come you aren’t more like him, KM?
BTW it is mostly clear and 23* here. Nice half-moon in the southern sky. First morning it has been visible in a while.
Looks like the gfs was right game off snow lovers
Hello from the snow hole in Franklin County in Hardy. I see that Franklin County is not under the watch…but in their discussion they say that if the Euro verifies they will have to expand the watch. Do they really think that Franklin County is not going to get enough slop that people would need some time to prepare for????? What is the purpose of a watch?
Are we in the game for any snow?
The WWM will be the only accurate model to use with this storm. (Wednesday Window Model) Till then panic reigns.
No one has a good grasp on this storm. Even up here in Ohio they aren’t sure whats going to happen. I’ve seen 2-4 from some and 6-10 from others for my location. Of course, there isn’t panic up here for those amounts so the TV weather guys are under less pressure.
Snow lovers and haters, don’t give up hope either way on this one, 50 miles one way or another in the track makes a big difference!
Nothing has busted yet. Storm is still two days away. It would not take much to put much of our area back in the game for large totals. As it is, 4-8″ looks like a good bet in Roanoke.
Ricky: I don’t really understand your comments
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(1) Somebody is most likely going to get 12+ inches of snow very close to here. Just because it doesn’t end happening at your front door doesn’t mean it’s not important to discuss several days out as a possibility.
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(2) At 5 days distance, 100 miles in a forecast is like 3 inches on a 100-yard drive of a golf ball. Not a significant distance.If 12-18 inches occurs in Appomattox County when some suggested it might be Roanoke 5 days ago, that’s not a very large error. Now, if the bullseye misses that much at 24 hours or less, that’s a larger error. We’ll see how that ends up on Tuesday-Wednesday.
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(3) It can’t be a “bust” yet for anyone unless there are snow amounts forecasted that don’t come close to occurring Or conversely if a large amount of snow occurs that isn’t forecasted. Snowfall accumulation forecasts generally aren’t considered final until the last 12-24 hours. And … of course …. it hasn’t snowed yet.
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(4) It is the forecast models you are deriding that are leading to current projections of more snow north and east and less snow Roanoke Valley and south and west. If this is what in fact ends up happening, the models as a whole (some better than others) have done very well by gradually zeroing in on the forecast. Expecting what exactly shows up on the model 5 days beforehand on a county-level basis to verify is an incorrect application of them.
All that said, looking at the winter storm watch, the part that would be in most question would be the part from Roanoke south and west. The weather service seems to be banking on the cold air catching up to the back side of the first round of moisture more than the snow circulating back that far behind the low to the east. That’s a pretty iffy proposition.
To have any shot of double-digit amounts (this is in response to a question — NWS is NOT calling for 10+ amounts Roanoke and SW), you have to get in the meat of the snow shield on the back side of the low, the “deformation zone.” There will be a sharp cutoff on where that reaches. Canadian model had it all the way back to I-77, while NAM and most recent Euro have it stopping at Roanoke or just northeast — and that’s the edge, not the core of it. Razor-thin call on where that ends up. It could split a county and one side get 8 inches and the other side 1-2. If anyone remembers Jan. 25, 2000, when Lynchburg area got 8-12 inches, Bedford 1 inch and Roanoke zip, that’s kinda what I’m talking about
A few here and elsewhere are suggesting that the models are starting to trend more towards the GFS and not the Euro, which of course would mean less snow in SW/Central VA and more in NOVA and northward. I don’t see it myself; in fact of anything it looks like things are getting dialed in quite nicely, with Staunton to Harrisonburg being the bulls-eye as of now.
Am I correct or are the GFS proponents right in this regard?
I feel like this storm has commitment issues when it comes to Roanoke. HA! Time to get the checklist out – PJs on backwards, ice cubes in the toilet, spoon under the pillow …
Dan: Weather blogger Keith Huffman has a pretty discussion of where the models are and why.
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/winter-storm-watches-hoisted.html
Keep in mind he’s writing from a Lynchburg perspective, so when he talks about a heavy snow band on “us” that’s where he means. (He also writes from a very unabashedly snow fan perspective.)
Kevin, what are the chances that southside (Martinsville/Danville) gets added in to any watches?
Great, thanks Kevin—appreciate all you do, and your blog is quite addicting, to say the least (and not just for major events like this one).
Some questions about winter storm watches, why and where.
Winter storm watches differ from some other kinds of watches. Usually if your location is placed under a winter storm watch, there is the full expectation that it will be placed under a winter storm warning or at least a winter weather advisory later. This is not the case with, say, a tornado watch — in most events (there are certainly exceptions), the majority of counties under a tornado watch are not eventually placed in a tornado warning.
As for where the watch is placed is now, this is where the weather service currently expects a reasonable chance at 4+ (actually, 5+ is criteria west of Roanoke) snows. It’s fairly unusual to issue watches starting with the 4th period — Monday being the first period, Monday night the second, Tuesday the third, with Tuesday night as the 4th. The weather service usually does this only if there is high impact potential of a winter storm.
The watch may expand based on later data indicating that some of the heavier snow will extend farther. There are the usual problematic counties like Franklin that have different geographical regions lying within a single county that may vary dramatically. It’s possible the watch may also contract, or be replaced by winter weather advisories, if more northerly/easterly model solutions seem to be the direction the storm is going.
Generally speaking, my advice is that if you are 1 county outside of a winter storm watch, consider yourselves in it for preparation. There is some chance you’ll be added to the watch or a later warning, and even if you’re not, snowfall doesn’t tend to follow political boundaries and can easily slip into Boones Mill if there’s a watch or warning for Roanoke County. Also, amounts just less than a winter storm watch level can be troublesome.
I could see us going into this particular event on Wednesday with some very fluid advisories and warnings that would need tweaking based on radar and surface observations.
Regardless of what happens i will enjoy reading the blog to see who is gettin what and how much…the WJN covers a wide area which makes it all the more interesting:)
Good Monday Morning WJN – as usual the wind is gusting up here on the ridge in Dopplerville. It was 19 earlier this morning so no telling what the wind chill would have been. We are under the Winter Storm Watch. I am patiently watching the discussion and banking on the Euro. Guess we will know come Wednesday morning where the storm is headed. Meanwhile sit tight – - – -
but- – - – - Gloaming Girl – I like your advice – jammies inside out, ice cubes in the toilet, spoons under the pillow and a couple snow dances to help things along.
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Kevin I am a long time lurker here and consider this the place to go for any weather discussion. Thank you for what I feel is the very best in information and predictions. I enjoy those who write regularly as well. I think I have become addicted to this site.
Kevin…you have just hit on something that should be relayed to the NWS. They are trying to figure out how to improve their watches, warnings, etc. The public does NOT understand that some watches are different than others. They need to be uniform in what watches mean…
VBSL-Very Big Snow Lover here but I’m pretty dang excited to see 60 in the forecast for Sunday!
Kevin,
Thanks for your cogent analysis (and your tireless efforts). It’s always hard to take bias out of the discussion, but you do it in an effective and seemingly effortless way. The models say what they say, and because they are probabilistic and not deterministic, they may seem to say different things. Kudos to you for putting it all together for us as comprehensively and analytically as possible, as a good professor would.
Ricky, I do not understand how anyone can say this was blown way out of proportion. I have not seen or read anywhere any one making a forecast, they simply have had discussions about what the models have shown. From my very limited knowledge but several years of following various blogs, I have learned that what the models show 1-2 weeks out and what happens can be drastically different. DT got excited early on because the models seemed to be quite consistent from one run to the next, which is not often the case. What that meant was somewhere was likely to get a storm. At this time, the expectations are still exactly that, no variations whatsoever, somewhere is likely to get a storm. To say this was hyped or blown out of proportion suggest no one should have any discussions of models.
What helps is the knowledge from people like Kevin, Quags, and Zach who can take in what the models show, and what experience and regional differences have shown to happen. If I understand correctly, despite how consistent the models have been, the track they have been showing is not typical, giving some reason to be weary early on. Maybe that is why things are now panning out differently. I do not know enough to interpret models, but what I have seen is more often than not, we are more likely to be in the bullseye on the day of the event if we are not in the bullseye 3-5 days out, like we have been here. It seems very common for there to be a shift in the models in the last 24-48 hours, and that is when you do better if you are in the bullseye.
Appreciated, Howard. You seem to be in an area lining up for 6+ amounts — well, probably.
Scott, indeed whatever snow falls will not last long. Amarillo, Texas, got 19 inches of snow last week and it was gone in 2 days. We could see some similar amazing disappearing snow in Virginia regions that get big amounts.
Well I hope runs today show it coming back towards Roanoke a bit or expanding into Roanoke. I love snow, but I don’t want a 1-3 in slush; to paraphrase here, Give me Big or Give me Bust.
The vort is not where the gfs or nam model predicted it would be at this time. It’s still further south.
NrVBrandon,
If the vort is south does that mean the snow falls further south also? I only ask out of interest, oh and the fact that I live in Henry County and need snow!!!!!!
The vort being more south is better right?
Good morning Weather Journal Nation! The sun is out. The blog will be at its busiest for the next few days.
Ohiohoo – my son is at the OSU in grad school. I got him a nice pair of Sorel boots after we shoveled 9″ to get to his apartment door back in December after the holidays. I’m not sure he’s used them since but maybe this week?? He had been living in Austin TX for the several years prior and no longer had proper footwear. He’s leaving Tuesday for Boston by car for a conference so I am a little concerned.
So I am supposed to drive to Williamsburg from Roanoke. When would you leave? I can go any time, but was originally planning on Wednesday AM.
If the vort remains south/west of projected track, it would likely trigger the surface low that much further south/west, and drag the snow area that much further south/west. As you can see from current expectations, a move of 50-100 miles of the snow area to the southwest would have big ramifications for the Roanoke Valley and farther southwest.
With the Vort being more south than anticipated in the gfs or nam, does that mean that the snow depths will increase more to the south of Roanoke vs north of Roanoke?
Molly: I never tell anyone when on where they should travel, but just discuss weather. There will almost certainly be snow between Williamsburg and Roanoke on Wednesday. More so if you take a northern route (presumably I-64) than a southern route.
Kevin,
Any idea when we can expect an update entry? Also, will you include some sort of guesstimates (in terms of potential snowfall totals) as well? If indeed you do make a guess as to totals, I’d appreciate any forecast for the Shenandoah Valley region (I’m in C’ville). Thanks in advance..
Lets see if this works……WDBJ7 has a series of images that shows the differences in the models. It sure does make it easier for me to understand them.
http://www.wdbj7.com/news/wdbj7-winter-storm-forecast-models-20130303,0,7824166.photogallery
When does the next Euro come out?
I probably won’t do a full update until this evening. I will tell you Dan that you are probably in the zone mostly likely for 6+, locally 12+, really under almost any reasonable scenario. I’m a little skeptical of some of the widespread 12+ output on the models, owing to compaction of wet snow, poor snow:liquid ratios in marginally cold environment, and in particular the NAM’s tendency to grossly overestimate precipitation. There will be some 12+ bubbles or streaks somewhere, but I’m not sure it will cover half a state the way some models depict.
Great post, Nrv Golfer. Kevin, any thoughts on when the models will get enough data that they will converge? In other words will we get some variables settled before the storm is right on top of us?
Micah: No new Euro til after 1 p.m. 12Z NAM rolling in now.
Well played, Kevin, well played.
Thanks Kevin, and I wholeheartedly agree on totals (from my amateur point of view). My own guess for the general C’ville area is 7-9 inches, with spots just west and north of us (Staunton, Harrisonburg, etc.) more in the 10-12+ range, especially in the higher elevations. Wintergreen, for example, very well might get at least a foot while the lower valleys of Albemarle county 20 miles east again get a little more than half of those totals.
We’ll see soon enough…
Well, I see that NWS has put our chance of snow to 100% up from 80% yesterday. I hope this means things are coming together. Right now I am kind of wishing I was going to be in C’ville or wherever the “bullseye” ends up landing. Seems that I am never in the bullseye.
Kevin…can’t blame ya for picking 6 flaks for the ‘Burg last week. At my house, we’ve had at least a trace of snow daily for the past 5 days, with an initial 0.2″ of accumulation, and another 0.1″ last night. The typical impuleses that enhance the upslope snows just didn;t quite track right to bring the more widespread snow showers we typically see…it was more like 4 days of flurries, book-ended by measurable dustings of snow.
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I suppose we’ll hopefully have a better idea of the forecast potential by later today. The NAM and GFS still seem a bit out to lunch, with basically the whole area staying high and dry from a snow perspective. I just have a hard time completely buying into that, but who knows…given how quirky this winter has gone, nothing would surprise me at this point.
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One thing I am now looking forward to though, as we have transitioned to March, is the forecast of a beautiful weekend in the mid 50′s. I’ve been itching to get outside and work in the yard to get new mulch put down, stake up some plants, do some final pruning, pull a few weeds that survived the winter, etc, etc. Looks like I’ll finally have a weekend with the right kind of weather to get it done.
I knew the GFS was off its rocker last night.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd
Looks like the new NAM straddles the VA/NC border. Good news for DC, not so good for us.
Monday 12ZNAM up to 48 hours is good snow for where the Winter Storm Watches are. After 48 hours, turns up the coast brush the 95 corridor…Again north of I-64 sees heavier amounts. Charlottesville to DC bullseye
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html
This watch is really odd to me. Smyth, Wythe, Tazewell and Bland counties are not included but the surrounding counties are. We frequently have watches and advisories when the surrounding counties do not. First time I have seen this.
On the new NAM, here’s what the radar looks like about when it would change to snow in Roanoke (1 a.m. or so per the model):
http://tinyurl.com/cxq9yov
And here is radar 6 hours later:
http://tinyurl.com/cy7c2lg
And 6 hours after that:
http://tinyurl.com/bovapu4
Keeps snow band on US 460 corridor for quite a while.
Reminds me of one of our Feb. 2010 storms. DC got clocked and we averaged 6-12″. Of course with this being March, 4-8 would be more reasonable if it were to play out exactly like this.
The Low maybe further north but the precip holds back as Kevin says above.
Posting update on QWC Home Page now…
Not looking good down this way by that nam:(
That dont look good for snow down my way.
About 2 inches Roanoke/Blacksburg on Allen Huffman’s snow map from the 12z NAM:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE060.gif
And this farther north for those interested:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE060.gif
Please don’t take this the wrong way but if all the nerds in Southwest(me included) are on here today, who is doing the work around the area today?
Kevin, to get a ballpark figure on snow amounts, I step through frame by frame until the 850, 0*, line passes over approximately where I live (Pulaski) and then calculate the amount of precipitation after that. Is this suitable for a best guess? Doing the 12 NAM this way I got a snow of 2-3″ for Puville
Please let it snow!!!!!! (my better half will not be happy that I posted this as he is a true snow hater)
Well, I can’t really answer that question, Micah, since this is my work (weather is 40 percent of my job, but really much more on a week like this) and folks being on the blog instead of doing their jobs helps me keep doing this work.
Newman: Your calculation is pretty close to what the 12Z NAM snowfall map I linked on Allen Huffman’s web site shows.
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Leo Lady: Just tell your “better half” that it will be 60 by the weekend.
Micah, this is the weather nut’s version of ‘March Madness’. The difference being this won’t last two weeks, so we don’t waste nearly as much work time. Although a storm ‘pool’ would be nice………..
Kevin is there still a chance this storm could blow up bigger than expected with a wider precipitation shield?
Interesting that the NAM shows a degraded block and moves the low north. It shows plenty of QPF from VA to New England. Wondering of it’s having trouble with thermal profiles.
Kevin of Turkeycock: Exactly what I was thinking. I wouldn’t be surprised if large snow amounts end up encompassing a much larger area than what we are seeing on the models.
What are your thoughts on chances of Henry Co getting any snow from this?
I’m going to take a break from computer for a while. Will approve comments via smartphone at times and peek at some model runs, maybe chime in a bit here and there. I plan to post new this evening, mid-evening I hope.
Kevin, Am I reading the NAM right that snow will reach the tidewater as the storm moves away Wednesday night?
Moved up to Michigan from Roanoke couple years ago fore a few reasons, including “lake effect snow” !!! Everyone I tell this to up here thinks I’m a FRUITCAKE, but its nice to be in so much snow this winter.
Nic: Henry County needs a slight southward shift in the vort and surface low track to see significant snow. Or more of a southward thrush on the snow band rotating on the back side of the low. Don’t rule it out, though odds lean against it a little at this point.
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Robert: You may see some snow on the backside of the low as it goes out to sea.
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New GFS pretty much holding firm with a more northerly precip field.
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Off for a while now.
Robert in Suffolk….
Tidewater and Southeastern VA east of 95 south of 64 will see all rain heavy at times that may change to a mix or all snow at the end on Wednesday evening that will last about 2-3 hours max. You may see an inch or so but that’s it. You’ll have to go west of 460 to see the accumulating snow down your way. Euro from the morning run had the same thing.
Will update snowmap after this afternoon’s Euro after 2:30 PM.
RELAX FOLKS!!! GFS IS STUPID DRUNK!!!
THE UKMET STAYS SOUTH!!!
PLEASE IGNORE THE 12Z GFS RUN!!!!
now back to your regular programming.
I’m trying NOT to believe anything the GFS says at this point LOL.
This explains why the GFS is awful and is showing that now…
This is from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog…this blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics and he does an outstanding job on explaining why the GFS is such a wonderful model…I meant terrible model.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html
@ NrVBrandon,
“The vort is not where the gfs or nam model predicted it would be at this time. It’s still further south.”
How much further? alot or a little?
Looks like Zach may have been on to something!!!
I very much agree with Sean Sublette’s map right now.
http://seansublette.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/snowbw.jpg
Still waiting on the 12z Euro to see if it’ll change my thoughts about amounts ..
I don’t like the way things are trending. Hopefully we’ll have a better grasp on details later tonight.
OK not on board with the 1-4 in Roanoke yet, but we shall shall what the EURO says. The vort being further south than the GFS said so that’s a good sign I think.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/first-snow-map-thoughts-welcome.html
Snow Map — confidece is high South of 64. Do think north of Roanoke (between Roanoke/Lexington) see at least a couple inches. could be 2″ could be 6″. North of Lexington get ready.
Wow, WDBJ7 tells the NRV to wait on their dusting while the NWS has us in an WWA for 4-8 inches.
How can this be?
If the GFS is right, 1-4″ would be pretty generous.
Same ole crap
12″ not
5-10 not
4-8 not
3-6 not
now 1-4 yeah right, quit teasing
dusting, probably, whoopeee, come on Spring!!!!!!!
New Euro is in, and it moves towards the GFS solution. Congratulations Zach.
My head is spinning. The NWS in Morristown has us under a WSWatch for this storm for 4-10 inches. This includes Washington, Russell, Wise, Scott and Lee Counties. As Ken said Smyth, Wythe, Bland and Tazewell are not under any advisory. All the models I have seen basically show far SWVA having little to no major accumulation. Not sure where this is coming from and especially since Morristown tends to be so conservative. Maybe their crystal ball has spoken or just led them down the wrong path. Time will tell. Still going to get the gas cans filled up just in case.
when does the EURO come out next?
Sammy Snowman: You still havent given me a specific case for the last time 12+ was even discussed as a possibility here, even at distant range, and then didnt happen. Wasnt this year. Wasnt last year.
Michael Hoback: There is some upslope snow behind the storm to consider in the warnings that way.
Weather forecasting is a wonderfully interesting science, but if I hear on the radio that it snowed, I’m still looking out my window to see for myself.
Brandon, how does the euro move towards the gfs? Looking at the maps, it does no such thing.
DT is taking some heat because he won’t admit the Euro moved north. Whether it did or not, there’s still going to be plenty of snow in the Old Dominion. It just rearranged the haves and have nots a little bit.
How doese the euro move to the gfs? It does no such thing.
so for bedford its looking like 1-4? lame, i wanted some real snow
i think i deserve it, i was in florida this summer. i need snow to cool me off ha
I still think the GFS is crap. we will still see atleast 6 inches. i think some people live or die by the GFS predictions
Kevin,
What about Floyd County – we have the elevation. Hoping that helps with the snow. What do you think?
Kevin – When does the Euro update? NWS still has chances fairly high for snow and sleet.?
I think I may just move to Alaska! LOL I don’t like the way this new trend is looking. I’m still feeling a 8-10″ snowfall in SW Roanoke County.
Lol!! Quote from a couple days ago…… “Ricky, I think this storm is the exception, its got a lot working for it”! LOL!! As I laugh hysterically!
Kevin, I thought about the upslope machine and saw it on the projected radar but I guess I was assuming it would not be ‘heavy’ snow but like I said before, its March and the winds of change are blowin! We are having ourselves one beautiful day. There is some breeze and it feels warmer than the thermometer shows. It is now 42 but the sunshine is gorgeous.
Well someone is getting snowed on just looks like it will be to the north of Roanoke. What’s the chance we get another surprise 5-6 like a few weeks ago? Obviously the games not over yet but it’s not looking good for RKE snow lovers.
Over the last few runs, the Euro jakes side to side , north to south, back and forth within a narrow Lane. I have a feeling that this is going to be one interesting storm over the next couple of days. Someone is getting clobbered….us??? Cville???? I think we will not know until it happens
not to change the subject of snow but (well really I am trying to change subject) just let the snow fall where it may. My question is what would be a good weather station to buy for my house. I’m putting one on my christmas list this year and wonder if anyone has the model that you can check conditions from an iphone??? I’d LOVE to have one like that! I like to be able to my home base from anywhere in the world!
As long as it’s not an ice storm, I’m happy!
(although as a kid, that phenomenon was just as entertaining as any other big weather event – I’m less appreciative since I have to deal with it as an adult!)
It’s just fun waiting to see which way this goes – like guessing what Santa’s bringing for Christmas! LOL!
From what I understand at this point, this storm is a bust for Roanoke. My better half will be thrilled.
Kevin- as usual thank you for all that you. I love that you aren’t afraid to post what the outlook is based on the now models instead of waiting until the day before when you know it’s certain to discuss it. That’s what this weather blog is- and you have taught all of us so much
This is the perk to this blog. That’s why it’s so irritating when people get on here and are NOTHING but NEGATIVE….that or they complain that their location never gets snow….like ANY of us can help that???? I feel much better- thanks for all you do!
Kevin,
Thanks for all the info you give us! I now have people that call me and ask “Check your magic weather blog….what’s he saying?”
come on now i think we get over foot storm is going to be a big one
Ok so Henry M. says the Euro shifted north while DT says the Euro shifted south! Which is it? Its like a war between forecasters who love the GFS (Henry) and the forecasters that love the Euro (DT). Its all just so dramatic!
I understand Roanoke may only get a dusting. What are your thoughts on Bedford City and Lynchburg? Is it safe to predict at least a couple inches for us regardless of the path of the storm? I work in Lynchburg and leave at 5 am. What is the timing of the storm? Will I know by then if roads are safe or should I assume I will be staying home Wednesday?
I dont think the euro shifted north either
Did you know that…
Fair weather was forecast by the U.S. Weather Bureau on this date in 1909 for President Taft’s Inauguration. Instead, the nation’s capital received 9.8 inches of snow as a massive snowstorm hit the city. This forecasting error led to great criticism of the Weather Bureau.
Kevin Myatt, you are the man. 99% of us appreciate what you do, and your explanations of weather are awesome.
For those of you who want to blame the forecaster(s) for what GOD decides happens with weather… Ill be sure to show up at your job tomorrow, follow you around, and critique every mistake you make throughout the day.
Find another blog, we don’t need you.
To quote Shakespeare, “”No one loves the messenger who brings bad news.” – so from that standpoint, poor Kevin is doomed no matter what he reports, because our appreciation of weather events is entirely subjective – what is good for the goose is not always good for the gander! But I would say that the majority of us truly appreciate this blog and Kevin, and the loyal weather aficionados who add more data and humor, because knowledge is power!
It will snow. It will not snow. It may snow. It may not snow. Seems like the EURO, GFS and NAM are doing this deliberately, just to stir the WJN pot. When I went outside at lunch the sky was cloudless – no horse tails, no fish scales. Does not bode well for Wednesday. Oh, glorious anticipation!
The trends on models favor the heavier snow for the I 64 corridor and farther north. Still havent had a chance to fully assess what it means for Roanoke and farther southwest. Will be on in a few hours with a new blog post.
I’ll second what was said by my opinion (#111) and Jamie (#112)….thank you Kevin, keep up the good work
looks like once again roanoke,bedford miss the snow again according to u guys but the wxrisk guy has tottally different opinion i still think we get 8 to 12 inches
Jared,
Have not seen you post very much on the last couple of threads. You realize not jinxing the snow by talking about it too much is just a superstition, right? LOL. I hope you get two feet!!!!! I think I may end up with that down my way in Henry County. The only problem is they will both be connected to my ankles.
NOAA forecasting 6-10 tomorrow night and no mention of accumulation on Wednesday yet. Would have to assume 15-20. I’ll believe it when I see it because this thing can shift north or south real easy and we’ll be the ones on the outside looking in again. It definitely reminds me of the back and forth that happened before the Biguns of ’09-’10.
I have a question, does anyone know a website or place where I can view where the vort is currently. But a map that shows or clearly indicates a vort because im having trouble seeing where the vort is exactly. Like i know where the vort is when looking at models, but im not sure how to indicate where a vort is, or the vort’s current direction and intensity based on satellite or water vapor image, may i have some help on this? thanks.
I am home a bit early today. Just looked at all the comments, and many of them were delightful, and some made me laugh out loud. Congrats, fellow bloggers {almost typed “boogers”
}.
I have one request. Would somebody, anybody, PLEASE post a comment with hopefully a clown map or something close to it based on the 0z Euro run? The state map created by Sean Sublette in a superb comment by Ben G (comment 84 ….. TYVM TYVM, Benzo!!) was one of the best snow maps I have ever seen, but it wasn’t based on the Euro run, was it? Each county was clearly outlined, lines separating relatively precise ranges (1 to 3, 3 to 6, etc.), and you could easily tell where all the larger cities were.
Certainly things are very interesting. DT is either going to be doing a huge told you so, or he has a huge mess of crow. I hope it is the former. The northerners commenting over there are vicious.
to add on to my question, because i’m not sure if im making much sense, haha. Like, is there a map that shows a current image with lines depicted like the models that show the shortwave energies that shows a dip with which a vort is indicated? Or is there another way to clearly see a defined vort via Doppler Radar, Water Vapor, etc…
+3 for Zach’s early fold call…
Time to do the same for western VA. Central and Northern VA still in play.
Winter’s Last Hurrah is now Winter’s Last Blah.
Correction: I meant 12z Euro run, I guess. The most recent Euro run, whatever the number is.
Nice warm day today, right? Not really. Temp at RRA is 49 according to the icon at right, but that is a full 5 degrees colder than normal for March 4th. And the low was 26. That combination is typical of about February 10th (Normal high/low of 48/29). And it sure is nice to see totally blue skies for a change.
One tremendous advantage of having this cold start to March is that we almost certainly won’t have to worry about the fruit trees blossoming early and then becoming decimated by an April freeze or three (like 2007). My forsythia usually bloom fully by March 10th and are usually showing some yellow color by now. Not one single bit of yellow on them now. If they could talk, they would probably be pleading, “HEY!! YOU IN THE HOUSE!! How about putting a blanket on us tonight?!?”
This sucks:-( I among other snow lovers were hoping for the best and we got shafted.
Well, the NWS backed off big time on their estimated snowfall totals for Lexington. Was 6-14 this morning, now it’s 4-8.
Kevin, make a phone call and tell them to put it back up to 6-14, would ya?
Daggon it! Bullseye for heavy snow has left us and moved up over Winchester! Lets kick that storm just a Tad southward.
Well fellow snow lovers I know a trend when I see it and the trend is away from my backyard (Roanoke). Obviously anything can change in the next 24 hours, yet I just cant get away from this feeling our friends to the north of us get this snow. As far as I go lets get to spring: baseball, cookouts, and days at the park. With that said any movement back towards snow I am allow to become a cheerleader once again for snow….
The whole idea of Roanoke receiving major snow amounts was based on the notion that the low would dig south of I-40 and strengthen quickly as it slowly moved eastward. Now it looks like we’re in a situation where the low isn’t as strong as it moves along the NC/VA border and doesn’t blow up until it’s too late for us. It also moves quicker. Great news for people in the northeast, but this is NOT how we get our best snowstorms. Add in that fact it’s March and you have a recipe for disaster if you’re a snow lover.
If this thing gets going a little earlier, things could change. It doesn’t look likely at this point. One nagging idea in the back of my head is that perhaps it will strengthen a bit earlier and cause the dynamic cooling we need to get snow. Most models still show us with around an inch of QPF, but that’s not going to amount to much in the way of snow if the low pressure system doesn’t wrap up quickly.
I would also caution against using the word bust. A Winter Storm Watch guarantees nothing. A bust would be putting out a Winter Storm Warning and then getting nothing.
I’m going to tell a little story from my past weather experience, when I was 15 years old.
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The time frame was Dec. 31, 1984-Jan. 3, 1985. I was a junior high kid in northeast Arkansas. I remember watching the Sun Bowl game on TV and seeing huge snowflakes in El Paso, Texas. Then a day later, College Station deep in southeast Texas, the home of Texas A&M, was getting multiple inches of snow, very bizarre that far south. Winter storm watches went up for Arkansas because of that system, and I of course was excited that I might get a couple of days out of school for a potential snow. We went to school on Jan. 2, it started snowing before 8 a.m. not long after I got there, and I was thinking early dismissal. But by the time first period ended, it had stopped.
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The weather service took down all the winter storm watches. The sun came out. There was a chance of flurries in the forecast the following morning, but the storm was projected to head east across the Gulf rather than turn northward into the Alabama and Mississippi as it had been before, which would have given us snow. I was pretty bummed.
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I went to school the next day. There were no flurries, but the sky was leaden gray. When I came out of first period, huge flakes were collecting everywhere. We ended up with 7 inches that day, which in Arkansas, is like double that here in terms of impact and rarity. Memphis got 13. The storm had taken its original forecasted turn after all.
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Not saying that’s going to happen again. Forecast technology is light years ahead of the 1980s, and this is a very different atmospheric setup, a different time and different place. But it’s a cautionary tale about watching a storm system to the very end, rather than bailing when the models do. Contrary to the whiny “snow hole” rhetoric, Roanokers have already seen a 3-5-inch snow materialize out of a zero percent HPC chance for 1 inch.
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Let’s let this storm happen first before coming to too many conclusions.
The 18z GFS is even wetter than the 12z was in our area. I don’t know, but I wouldn’t let my guard down completely.
Kevin, could you explain a little as too how smyth, wythe, and bland county has no watches or warnings, yet everyone around us does?..im confused
Jeremy: I’m guessing it’s primarily about two different forecast offices — Morristown and Blacksburg — being involved and perhaps slightly different winter storm warning criteria. The criteria varies even across Blacksburg’s forecast area from 5+ New River Valley and west to 4+ Roanoke and east. May also be related to different views of how much upslope snow occurs behind the storm system.
gotcha kevin…do you see much possibilty in the upslope being good?
Brandon: Your path to more snow for this area would be simply to somehow get the atmosphere colder earlier on Tuesday night, so that more of that moisture is snow and not rain.
We may well begin as snow/sleet mix on Tuesday before going to rain. Sometimes, the column can get chilled enough that it doesn’t recover above freezing. I think that would have hard time happening with some of the given parameters, especially the lack of a high to the north to really bank in cold air, but I won’t say it’s impossible.
Still having a very hard time guessing when cold air might catch up to the rain shield early Wednesday morning, and where the “comma-head” band behind the low stops later in the day. Small things that could have huge impact.
And of course it’s still possible the vort travels farther south. It did on Jan. 17. Funny things happen sometimes.
Would anyone like to take a stab at what the C’ville area can expect? Obviously we’re still in play, but I’m afraid it will continue to take a northerly track and/or we only end up with 3-5 inches of wet, heavy snow.
Just watched Brent W. and Jay W on WDBJ7. They showed snow maps extremely similar to what Sean Sublette had in the link provided by Ben, comment 84. Also, their map of Virginia showed the Low (big red L on their map) up around Fredericksburg, VA??!! HUH??
Whatever, they also mentioned two other things that I have seen little mention of here, at least by bloggers. Tomorrow is going to be one wet day, once the rain starts, at least here within 35 miles of Roanoke. And the other thing they mention is that the winds on Wednesday and Wed. night will be ferocious, gusting up to 50 in many areas. This could be a case of many people being quite or very disappointed because snow totals end up less than what they were hoping for or expecting, but not realizing that maybe they also have dodged the bullet of losing their power from trees that would have come down with 6+ inches of snow on them and big winds. I am sure that there will still be outages even locally, but if the lower snow totals verify, the numbers will be minor compared to what might have been. Winchester and perhaps even Harrisonburg may have that problem big time.
From Roanoke Regional Airport: United has cancelled all ROA-ORD inbound and outbound flights for Tuesday, March 5 due to winter weather. Check with United about re-booking.
Just a heads up for anyone who may have travel plans.
I think 6 inches is still a decent call for Charlottesville. Maybe a little more. I’ve been skeptical from the get-go of the widespread 12+ stuff. If this was a coastal low climbing all the way from Gulf up the East Coast, maybe. But too borderline, too much compaction, not-great snow:liquid ratios (6:1 to 8:1). I think the higher elevations that get under the better storm dynamics have a better shot — the high terrain of Shenandoah National Park, and the mountains west of I-81 in northern Virginia near Bryce ski resort.
I am predicting right now that in the morning there will be winter storm warnings in effect with a forecast of 6-12+ inches of snow in Roanoke!
The gifs has danced somewhat south again…..feel like I am watching a tennis match. Someone somewhere in VA is going to get whacked. This is a storm refusing to be pinned down. That makes it all the more exciting.
Micah: That would be quite a jump considering their current call in the Winter Storm Watch wording is for 3 to 7 inches. Don’t think that’s likely to happen unless something dramatic happens with the next round of model runs. If this thing is going to over perform, it’s probably going to do so without warning.
Here’s a look at the latest QPF from the GFS ensemble mean.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72072.gif
1.25″ from the 460 corridor north. Assuming half of that is snow and factoring in temperatures/compaction/sun angle, it would be a 3 to 5 inch type event taken literally.
Keep in mind that on WDBJs map….50miles Roanoke to Lexington. That is the difference between 1 to 3 and 6 to 12. A little jiggle is all it would take to put Roanoke back into the deep. This is still anybody’s ballgame.
KM: comment #147 sums it up. I have been repeating this phrase since last Thursday, or whenver Quags said it was “Miller Time…..Miller A Time!”: “Our best storms orginate in the Gulf, Our best storms originate in the Gulf”. Repeating this over and over has kept me from getting to excited, as this storm has never been shown ON ANY MODEL to be coming up from the Gulf. I also doubt anyone in VA will report more than 12″. The areas that get the most moisture, will have temperature issues, and the areas with the best cold won’t have enough moisture.
This is from the National Weather Service Blacksburg’s Facebook page:
No changes have been made to the Winter Storm Watch. Will still be looking to see if models trend strong and/or colder when the precipitation arrives. Based on this morning’s model runs, it still appears the I-64 corridor and points north could see double digit snowfall. The attached image depicts what the 12 hour snowfall criteria for winter storm warnings to be issued for our area.
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Basically confirms what we’ve been talking about this evening.
DT put on Facebook that the GFS is a little more south on the latest run. Is he trying to save face or is it really a little further south? Maybe if it moves south a little that will move the bullseye back to Charlottesville instead of Winchester!
Either way you go Euro or GFS it’s not looking good for SW VA. 1-3 inches is nothing go big or not at all.
I understand the “go big or go spring” sentiment. But on the other hand, I’d say if it snows appreciably at all where any snow fan is at, absorb it and enjoy it as much as you can. Especially for elevations below 3,000 feet, this has a pretty good chance to be the last go at snow for another 9 months or more. Can’t ever say for absolute certain that we might not flirt with snow again in late March or early April, but chances are better we don’t than we will.
“Go Big or Go Spring” we need to add that to the KMWJ bumper stickers.
A 50 mile shift is nothing. This system only need drop just a bit to put us in it. I don’t trust this system either way. It looks like one that we won’t know until it occurs
Hoping there will be a major southern shift in the storm track of 50-75 miles. I know it’s still possible and also possible for the cold air to work down faster and changeover to snow faster than predicted but it’s all up in the air at this point.
David in Salem’s comment hit it right on the mark. If the models move any more south we could get pummeled. Anybodys ball game.
18Z GFS does look a little south. Precip shield behind it appears to spread into our region a little more, too.
Kevin: What is the location of the vort right now? Is it further south than the models have depicted? I know this morning it looked as if it was a little further south and west.
I would imagine this storm has Mets all over about ready to jump out a highrise window. This thing isn’t behaving at all!!!!
Had a low of 24 this morning wind chill in the teens.My high was 43.Its back down to 33 now and dropping fast tonight.D.C.Stations are saying this could be big in Loundoun,Northern Fauquier,Warren,and points west.Stay tuned its getting more interesting by the hour.
While I can’t say I’m not disappointed, you’re right, Kevin, be happy with whatever falls, wherever you are. Who knows? Maybe the vort will dive bomb further south than the models say. There’s still time. And if not, bring on the daffodils!
Has anyone noticed that the high temp in Blacksburg today (under bright sunshine) was “only” 42, but the forecasted high for tomorrow (under clouds/precip) is 47. So it is going to be a full 5 degrees warmer tomorrow than it was today? Maybe I am grasping here, but does anyone really buy that kind of temperature logic? If the overnight low bottoms out in the low 20′s tonight and clouds/precip move in at sunrise, who knows, maybe there’s the surprise we all need!
I think this is a really neat storm, so much unpredictability. Anticipation!
For what it’s worth, on my trip to Winston-Salem, the morning forecast for Triad called for rain mixed with snow on Weds, high of 45 …last forecast I picked up (6 pm) was for snow showers throughout the day, overnight high of 40 …perhaps this was based on more southerly track …otherwise, I’ll just look out the window Weds
Dave Tolleris has posted some new snowfall probabilities for Roanoke.
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0-2″= 90%
2-4″= 90%
5-8″= 70%
9-12″= 30%
13-16″= 10%
17″+= 5%
I generally agree with these. I think 3 to 7 is a good call.
http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3mar4.jpg
I don’t know why i’m staying up tonight to watch all the models, but i have a feeling this storm could change for the better for us, just a feeling though.
what kind of map is that Brandon?
In case anyone has trouble getting here, when I click on or type http://www.roanoke.com it tells me the server has timed out. But they can search for Roanoke news and click on the weather link under Roanoke.com and it’ll bring them here.
In northeastern Montgomery Country, everything is covered with ice right now. Be careful on the highways!