March far cooler than last year
March 2013, so far, is a world apart from March 2012. Roanoke’s high temperature of 47 on Wednesday was 10 degrees cooler than the temperature for March 13 a year ago — 10 degrees cooler than the LOW temperature, that is. For the first 13 days of March 2012, Roanoke’s average temperature was 49.7 degrees … which is almost a degree warmer than the average HIGH temperature so far this March and 8.6 degrees warmer than the average temperature. Roanoke hit 79 for a high on March 13 and then 81 on March 14 in 2012, the first of six days in that warmest March on record with highs 80 or above. Based on the likely upcoming weather pattern, I’m going to venture to say right now that there will be ZERO days 80 or above in March 2013.
The combination of upslope northwesterly wind flow over the mountains, atmospheric disturbances and March sunshine destabilizing the lower layers a little more led to an interesting Wednesday of alternating sunshine and snow squalls. Thursday isn’t likely to be quite a repeat of the vigor of Wednesday’s snow showers, but some may linger, especially into the morning, 
as high temperatures hang in the 40s in most of Southwest Virginia. Surface wind flow will gradually turn more to the southwest by Friday and Saturday, pushing highs back into the 50s and even possibly the low to mid 60s by Saturday. But a series of disturbances and some uncertainty of where a stationary front may set up, dividing mild and cold air, lead to an unsettled forecast in terms of possible rain showers Saturday through Tuesday. Right now, it doesn’t appear Saturday’s St. Patrick’s Day festivities will be a washout, but some light showers are possible. By early to mid next week, a much stronger storm system will develop in the central U.S. and sweep toward the Great Lakes, dragging a rather strong cold front through, and likely returning us to a colder than normal temperature regime for some days afterward. There are no signals on the horizon for any prolonged warmup periods that would carry us into the 70s for even a few days, but also as of now no signals that suggest prolonged extreme cold, relative to March. Periodic cold fronts with overall normal to below-normal temperatures appear to the likely profile for the remainder of this month. I still wouldn’t entirely rule out some more wintry weather flirtations given the pushes of cold air that are likely to occur intermittently.
March 13, 2013 - 9:54 PM
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Kevin, comment 78 on previous thread, hoping for a huge but fluffy snow. It might happen that way, whenever it does, but I think of a tune for you: “Beautiful dreamer …. wake unto me ….”
I meant that comment sort of in jest regarding the conflicts over previous records. If we just bury all the records with a new snow, it will be settled. However, it is very true that I would prefer a big fluffy snow to a medium wet snow.
I can definitely tell that this year has been colder lately, because in doing a lot of yard work over the weekend and through yesterday, nothing had bloomed yet…not even the daffodils. They’ve only gotten a couple inches tall, and will still be at least a week or 2 before they pop. The forsythias haven’t even bloomed yet, though they do have a lot of buds ready to go. Everything has laid dormant longer due to the cold air since mid-January, and especially this month so far.
So tell us, late night man, does your less-than-an-inch prediction for Blacksburg this week still have a chance? Or did the BSD’s get you one last time by spitting out an inch in Hokieburg?
The “high” temp today in Blacksburg was a frigid 38 degrees. Ridiculous. That is 3 degrees colder than the normal high of 41 for the first 2+ weeks of January (information from wunderground.com).
0.1 inch at Blacksburg officially through 5 p.m. Still a shot at a win in the last week.
Doug, not only was the high only 38, but it was windy as anything. Every time we had a snow squall, it was blowing about as near sideways as possible. The ground turned white at the VT airport for one particularly heavy squall…it was as close to a whiteout as can be had for something that only lasted a few minutes.
Yeah, OJ, even in Roanoke city there was a squall that lasted about 2 minutes (I was at the lunch restaurant looking outside …. how great was that??) that had sideways snow. I bet that Doppler Carol and wd saw stuff like that, too. I remember reading comments from I.V. John and WD that they had real squalls, too.
“Other,” it sounds like you have the same situation that I do ….. FSS.
26 truly chilly degrees here. Wind blowing about 20. DC and wd, you two must really be having winds “kicking up like an angry mule.”
Other John – ditto on your comment 6 above. It was 19 here on the ridge this morning with the wind blowing about that much. I guess the wind chill was either 0 or just above. Tiny flurries bouncing by with the sun shining. I don’t think it got above 38 here yesterday and that was only briefly.
Same here with the flowers and plants, Other John. Even the peach trees have buds that are sitting there just waiting to open.
I am ready for Spring and warm temps but sounds like I will have to wait for awhile. Oh well.
My mom mentioned something to me that I thought was interesting. She said that March is ALWAYS colder when Easter falls in March. Anyone have any stats to back that up? Kevin? Doug?
37* here. Yesterday wind to 35 mph gusts and mid to high 20′s gusts all evening with substained winds in the upper teens and mid 20′s. Today is a repeat with the temps being some lower. Fished for an hour this mornin and thought my fingers were going to fall off. Not fun.
Dont have any Easter data…
But here is a very nice product from NASA..
showing the live of the Mar 6 “Nor’EASTER”…
..Note the intermittent shadows…they are the coming and
going of nightall.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mar13-noreaster.html
“Nurse Snow”…
Mignt take a good bit of research
to document your question…
Its probably a safe bet though that the Easter
egg rolls at the White House that took
place in March were on average colder.
Take a peek at the report from 1940 (and
other entertaining/historical ones as well.
http://www.whitehousehistory.org/whha_press/index.php/backgrounders/reports-from-white-house-easter-egg-rolls-past/
Compared to last year, the growing season is way far behind. I’m hearing that from local farmers and can see it my own backyard.
Kevin, what is the latest you make your snow meter pick and post your guess?
Yesterday I saw the real (for me) harbinger of spring in Roanoke–the cherry trees near the First Baptist Church, back of Elm St., are in cheery bloom. Hurray!
WD; This was the last week of the snow meter.
Mike Scott: Sure that’s true without a doubt. But then, last year’s growing season was one of the fastest and earliest ever around here. So maybe we can just get back to something resembling normal this time.
I know that. What time do you issue your guess on Sunday DURING regular season?
And one of the luckiest also since we never got a late freeze. There were doubts if strawberries would still be available by the time festivals usually start. Same for peaches. A bumper crop.
I think some of far southwest Virginia got a late freeze last year, but most of the state didn’t. Michigan apple crop was devastated last year by extreme warmth followed by a freeze (actually not technically a late freeze, since it was fairly normal for April/May up there, but came after the almost summerlike warmth of March)
Regarding snow meter: I put it on the blog at midnight and turn it into the paper by 6 p.m. or so on Sunday. I had it done by Saturday on weeks when there wasn’t some iffy system hanging out there — which this winter was basically only the first 3 weeks of December and this past week.
Can someone tell me where the big Miller B went that was on the Euro for the 19th and 20th? Haven’t heard much more talk about it. I’m assuming it adjusted and followed the GFS with splotchy light rain that’s in the forecast for the next few days.
Matt: Great Lakes storm handing off to coastal north of our latitude.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
Nurse Snow, soon to be Nurse Gardener (well, maybe not all that soon ….). I will look up the dates of Easter starting with 2000, find the ones that happened in March, then go look at the monthly “statics” for Roanoke and Bburg. I can tell you right now (not including this month) that unless Easter fell in March in 2005, NONE of those Easter-in-March Marches were more than a degree colder than normal at least in ROA. Results on the next thread.