Tuesday morning rain, then cooler
UPDATE 12:30 AM, 3/12: Rain should end not long after sunrise on Tuesday morning, with westerly winds kicking in behind a cold front during the day. Downslope warming from the winds blowing over the mountains and some sunshine may allow temperatures to climb well into the 50s (a few low 60s?) in most locations in Southwest Virginia, but the front is introducing an air mass that will bring colder weather for midweek. New blog post by mid-morning Tuesday. END UPDATE
With highs of 64 at Blacksburg and 65 at Roanoke, Sunday was the first day of this month to average above normal at both sites (despite near- to slightly below normal lows in the upper 20s/low 30s) and the warmest day since the late January thaw that preceded the flooding rains.
Monday may be almost as warm with highs around 60, but it appears that we won’t repeat the flooding rains of late January. A cold front is due to push through with a band of Gulf of Mexico moisture Monday night, but it appears it will be a quick hit of rain and nothing prolonged or especially torrential, around a half inch or so for most, maybe closer to an inch the farther west you go in our region. Guidance leans to an arrival of the main area of rainfall after sunset Monday, but some showers may occur during the daylight hours.
The cold front will bring temperatures back to down to below-normal 40s for highs in many locations by Wednesday. The general northwest flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere is likely to promote more colder than normal weather through the next week or two, though not every single day may not be what we would call purely “cold” with highs moving back into the 50s to near 60 between cold fronts, perhaps even late this coming week. Some disturbances caught in this northwest-flow may trigger a few bouts of showers — either rain or snow being possible, depending on timing and location — and there are a couple of systems a week or more out to watch for more widespread precipitation potential. One thing that is growing increasingly clear about this March is that it will be a far cry from last year’s warmest March on record, and may even be the first colder than normal March in Southwest Virginia since 2005.
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Snow meter
3/11-3/17
(0 to 10 chance of 1 inch of snow during week)
Roanoke 1 snowflake *
Blacksburg 2 snowflakes **
Outlook: The final week of the 2012-13 snow meter starts off mild and rainy late Monday into Tuesday, then turns breezy and a bit cooler for a few days, with some colder than normal weather maybe settling in by the weekend. But “colder than normal” in March means something very different than it does in January. Even low 50s for highs could qualify as colder than normal at Roanoke, and upper 40s at Blacksburg. That said, there may be some chance of mountain snow showers developing, behind the early week cold front on Tuesday, or perhaps next weekend with a possible Alberta clipper system moving southeast. So, while I don’t see much accumulating snow risk in any of that, I won’t plop zeroes down on the last week.
Looking back: Mission accomplished at Roanoke – 2.5 inches of snow measured on Wednesday during a week I went above five (seven snowflakes) on the snow meter clinched my goal of a 10-win season. At Blacksburg, I concede total defeat in this relentlessly quirky winter. Less than half an inch fell there, even though I picked seven snowflakes, my eighth straight defeat. I simply can’t adjust to a winter when it can snow for hours at Roanoke while it’s raining at Blacksburg. That never happened in my 13 previous winters in Southwest Virginia, and now it’s happened twice a month apart (recall 3.5 inches at Roanoke to 0.8 at Blacksburg on Feb. 6-7). The snow meter is entirely defective for Blacksburg in 2012-13.
Current records: 10-4 at Roanoke, 5-9 at Blacksburg.
March 10, 2013 - 9:27 PM
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I hope that you caught up some more on your sleep, tall bearded one!
Spoke about the AO-NAO-PNA on previous thread.
Since I was on that topic, I looked at what today’s levels and outlooks revealed.
1. AO: Big change in the extended outlook past the 17th-18th from yesterday. Now only one of the models shows the AO going +, with the vast majority of models showing it continuing negative, so the cooler and normal weather (with only a day or two warm ones scattered about) looks to continue. AO is currently a very negative -2.7 or so!
2. NAO: Currently about -0.4 or -0.3, will edge up to neutral (zero line) in the next 4 days or so, then go back negative. About 3 models (the minority) show it going + after about the 20th, but possibility of that happening are very iffy 10 days away. And the majority keep the NAO negative.
3. PNA: currently only slightly + at 0.2, will go negative for next 4 days but only to about -0.5, then rise again, most likely back to slightly +. After that the model lines jump around like Mexican jumping beans. Two models show it going quite negative to -1.0 about the 20th or 21st. Again very, very iffy for that push to negative happening.
We are now 10 days deep into March, WAY colder than normal throughout SW and Central Virginia, and no big lasting warm-up in sight if the oscillations can be believed. Still MORE frustration for some of you who were mostly frustrated by the lack of any widespread 6+ inch snowstorms at most of our homes and now are ready for spring to kick into gear. Sorry about that (the latter, that is). We will probably get one toasty week in before the end of the month, based on how changeable March can be. But a cold March … like what this one has begun … has been LONG OVERDUE.
43 DARK degrees here. Must be cloudy, no stars out there. No wind, either.
When will the winner of the snow contest be announced?
The sun finally came out here yesterday afternoon. I took a drive up onto the Blue Ridge Parkway hoping that I could catch comet Pan-starrs and the clouds rolled in again just prior to sunset. But it was still a beautiful drive. There is still some snow up on the Parkway in some spots.
Another Jason: Early April. Contest runs through March 31.I’ll start looking back through the entries in upcoming days to see who appears to be in contention.
Thanks Doug for clayifying in your reports regarding cold vs warm.
I saw that channel 7 now has a wintery mix showing up for Sunday on the 7 day planner. Is there growing confidence now that we may see measurable snow fall again early next week?
Already getting emails about next week’s potential event. I will completely defer this one to Zach and Kevin. Not even going to touch this one but if I did, it will once again affect Virginia north of I-64 with hardly snow in Southwest , Central or Southern VA and NC. Looks to be another mix to ice to moderate rain system.
Meant to say barely any snow for Western and Central VA.
I really enjoyed the weekend weather, it was about as good as you could ask for. Got a bunch of stuff done outside yesterday to prepare for the spring growing season…and now with DST kicked in, having the extra hour of daylight in the evenings after work will help me get stuff done during the week that I haven’t been able to. I still like flipping the clocks though…I say split the difference by 1/2 hour and call it good…or just dump it entirely and leave it be…either regular or summer time, whichever we choose. It’s just a hassle, and the whole reason it was implemented (to save energy) has never really proven true.
That should say *dislike…not *like. I typed too fast for my brain…
Seems obvious to me Mr. Myatt. You were bought off by a rich snow hater in B’Burg. Nobodys record could be that bad unintentionally.
It looks like the forecast high of 60* won’t verify today. 52* has been the highest I’ve seen here.
I see more weather stations are talking about the storm next week. Accu Henry is saying he thinks the Euro is correct and DT has placed another facebook post just a few hours ago saying chances are improving. He said it looks to be the same set up as the last one except it would move more north eastward. Says southwest va would probably be all rain but central virginia and the Shenandoah valley all snow. Long way off, but you never know what might happen in March! Whats your instincts telling you Kevin? If it does happen hope it draws in a little more cold air so I can get more then 4″ of snow. LOL
Scheduled to leave for Richmond next Monday and will return home on Thursday. I really do not want to drive in or encounter snow on my trip. Would prefer 75-80 next week but no hope of that. I am about tired of the winter that tried and basically failed. It was like the little train that said ‘I think I can’ but the difference is the train made it over the mountain. Now it is time for spring to try just hope it does not say ‘I think I can’ and then fail with a late freeze. My editorial for the day, no charge.
No way I’m gonna draw a rain/snow line on a maybe/maybe not storm system 8 days out.
No way I’m gonna draw a rain/snow line on a maybe/maybe not storm system 8 days out. Would think farther north with snow at first blush. Existence of storm not even certain yet, far less than last time.
I missed as many picking for snow as I did against, WD. Told ya early on the late week storms, borderline setups and minor disturbances would cost me a few weeks. Never thought it would be almost all of them after new year at Blacksburg.
Wow, the CPC just posted quite a change since last week………….the 6-10 day outlook is now supposed to be warmer than normal. The 8-14 day map looks nearly identical for temps.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Here’s a nice story from Accu, on the Storm of the Century, March 1993.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-93-20th-anniversary/7393746
More on the Storm of the Century, March 1993.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century
And you can find many more stories on the web. We’ll probably never see anything else that even comes close.
I think it only got to 50 here today – no sun and even had a few spritzes of rain around 1ish this afternoon. I already miss the sun!
Tina, I went out at lunch and remarked about how at the end of our driveway, we still have a good pile of snow left from a drift and then along our road, there are still spots of snow (from drifts). I can see for miles and see no snow except on my road and at the end of my drive. I have heard folks say that the snow is hanging around waiting on more snow. Hmmmm?
I’ll be writing about the Superstorm 1993 in my Wednesday Weather Journal column.
Euro starting to come to its senses at 12Z — Great Lakes low transferring to coastal. Would not be a big snow pattern for us if it transpires like that … but afterward, days and days of very cold weather relative to mid-March with the upslope snow machine going full blast in the mountains. Check out the deep blue colors in the second link. You don’t see those in mid to late March too much at our latitude.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
My main question if this comes close to verifying would not be whether we get a big winter storm initially, but rather whether something comes in behind it and catches the extreme cold pattern (relative to the season) a few days later.
I thought the 93 superstorm was great, but I have to put January 1996 as my all time favorite. Most snow I had ever seen out of one storm! (3 foot plus in Giles) The 1993 storm was just around 2 and half foot, but did have some pretty wild drifts with that wind. I remember seeing a house in Pearisburg with snow up even with the roof. I would just like to see a repeat of those 09-10 snows. Heck I would like a 6 inch snow that would stay at least a few days. I had 4 inches last wednesday and the ground was clear by friday! LOL oh well better luck next year!
DC, joe told me that was an old wives tale. I didn’t even bother to go into why it might just have some truth to it. He should already know why.
Kevin, Am I missing something or are the Euro models for around the 19th VERY different than the CPC’s 6-10 day outlook, which shows a warming trend? Seems to be quite a difference of opinions going on for next week.
I am going to Northern Virginia this weekend for a special event on Sunday afternoon. As much as I like snow, it really would not be a good time for a storm. I have already passed the deadline date for a refund on my Bed and Breakfast reservations. I will be watching this one rather closely.
This winter has been rather consistent for one thing, following patterns. I think I have read from several on here and other blogs, patterns tend to tell the story. This winter nearly every potential event was the same, very close call, where as last winter there just were little to no potentials, close call or not. Other winters if there was an event on the horizon it was a pretty good bet. The other pattern we had this winter along with last was the never ending story of “the pattern change is coming”. I love snow, but I have to agree with others, this past weekend, and my most recent heating bills, have me ready for spring.
Rick: Actually, the Euro solutions today would lead to a warmup followed by a sharp cold snap. With the low going into the Great Lakes, it would sweep some southwest winds our way, before the coastal transfer and large southeast Canada low. It would seem the conflict would be more in the 8-14 day period rather than the 6-10 day period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
CPC confidence in its current long range forecasts is 2 out of 5, which is not very high.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
wd, I already told everyone here what it was that has kept on sabotaging (do you like that word??) Kevin’s efforts to correctly predict what would happen in Blacksburg. Blacksburg Snow Demons!!
They read this blog every Monday morning and tell each other to tantalize KM once again, but ultimately leave him on the wrong side of the 1-inch line. If they do it again in this mostly mild or normal week in the middle of March, that would be absolutely undeniable proof.
Time for another WGP ….. Wrong Griggs Prediction. I am going on record right now that the average of the 5-day period from this coming Sunday (March 17th) through the 21st, which is the period covered by the 6-10 day CPC outlook, does NOT average more than 1-degree warmer than normal (which I would categorize as neutral, not warmer) for either Blacksburg nor Roanoke. I really feel that the average of those 5 days will be colder than normal. The outlooks for all 3 of the teletubbies (my nickname for the “Teleconnections,” which is what the AO and NAO and PNA are) are all eye candy for giving the eastern USA colder than normal weather. I realize that we are no longer in winter (really) when they are much more influential, but I still think that they will have enough of an effect to keep the warmth out of here other than for a day or two, with nothing really warm. AO in particular will start to rebound for a couple of days, but then there is pretty strong consensus that it goes very negative again starting about Sunday.
Chris, comment 6, you are very welcome. My explanation was rough and not totally accurate, but the essence of what I wrote at the end of the previous thread was right on (that negative AO and negative NAO and positive PNA are the ideals for cold weather in the eastern USA in winter).
Trivia: I looked at today’s RT to see if the normal high had bumped up to 56 for yesterday in ROA (it has), and also happened to look to see what the record high and low temp were for March 10. Lo and behold, the alltime record high for March 10 was 78 …… on 3-10-2000. Guy who clogs this blog with too many comments just mentioned that period of time here yesterday.
So Kevin what are your thoughts for the next 2 weeks- cold weather??? Highs in 40′s and 50″s?? or days like this weekend 60″s? From everything I have heard and seen cold will be here starting Wednesday and no more 60′s till April. Your thoughts??
Chris, I hope that you are not taking anything I posted as meaning that there will be no more days in the 60s here in Roanoke. I am simply convinced that the overall trend for at least a week or 8 or 9 days will be for mostly cooler than normal and roughly normal days for high temperatures. Doesn’t mean that we won’t have a day or two (or possibly even three) that reach 60 or more. For one thing, normal highs in Roanoke will be about 58 or 59 by next Monday.
One other thing. It certainly looks like either the AO-NAO-PNA numbers will change against the cold weather outlook for the Eastern USA pretty soon, or that the CPC outlook maps are quite a bit off. I have seen both sets of outlooks crash and burn in the past. I am counting (sort of) on the CPC maps doing the crashing and changing.
KM-with the 20 year anniversary of the Storm of The Century coming up, do you think you could use your connections at the NWS to get them to finally correct the Blacksburg total to 32″, and not the pawltry 18″ they have been showing in their records for years now? As you found earlier, by citing the Roanoke Times and WDBJ, we now can confirm that Blacksburg did indeed record 32″ from that storm (2″ more than the 1996 storm), making it the greatest storm in recorded history in Blacksburg. Would love to see the NWS finally give it the credit/respect it is due. Thanks for all you do, and can’t wait to see your write up on Wednesday.
The short answer, Mike, is don’t expect any changes. There is no official site in the climate database that registers 32 inches for Blacksburg. Local co-op sites at a number of locations very close by, including Newport just to the west and Allisonia in Pulaski County, reported 16 to 21 inch amounts. Keep in mind the National Weather Service was not in Blacksburg at the time, it was at Roanoke. Also, some of the modern standards used for uniform snow measurement were not in place universally. And the NOAA map doesn’t show any 30+ snow amounts anywhere in Virginia for the 1993 storm.
http://www.colinbeaven.com/Images/Winter%20Storms/04%20-%20March%201993%20Superstorm%20NESIS.jpg
I’m not sure what the origin of the 32 inch figure was. It was reported in the Roanoke Times 3 days after the event.
I’m not endorsing or criticizing any of this, just reporting what I’ve found in talking to the weather service and the Southeast Regional Climate Center. No one currently working at the National Weather Service was here in 1993, though I have talked to one former NWS employee who raises the possibility that there were a number of higher amounts to the west of Roanoke not reflected in official totals.
I will include some of this discussion in my Wednesday column about the 1993 Superstorm.
50 F just before 10 pm and the light rain has now changed over to heavier rain. Radar showing more rain coming up out of the south.
Heard a little of the Diane Rehm show this morning re: “Storm Kings: The Untold Story of America’s First Tornado Chasers.” Made me wonder what it is about North American topography/meteorology that makes virtually all tornadoes occur here. Or is it that ours are the only tornadoes we hear about?
Blacksburg Mike, I am with you on the 1993 storm totals. Not that I was here. But just talking to others both at Melrose Post Office (we used to have two carriers who live/lived in Christiansburg) and about 6 or 7 people at Draper Valley Golf course over the years. They all have said the same thing, I think. 30 inches to 3+ feet for Blacksburg, Pulaski, Wytheville. Rick, were you living in Wytheville back then? Anyone else living in either upper Montgomery, Pulaski, or Wythe Counties?
Meanwhile, back to the present for a moment. When on earth is the rain gonna get in here? Looks like Jay Webb’s model and what Sean Sublette showed on “13″ is going to be closer to the actuals for Roanoke, just under 1/2 inch. I realize that WPC reduced their expected totals a bit, but I will be happily surprised if I get even 1/2 inch out of tonight’s action.
Lee: I think it’s a little of both. I think a majority of the world’s tornadoes probably occur in North America, but probably not the 90+ percent it appears to be based on reports. The U.S. has by far the most intricate system of tornado reporting, based on our need for it, and of course Doppler radar, modern communications, cameras in every smartphone and chasers fanning out to very remote locations have added numerous reports that would otherwise go unnoticed.
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I definitely want to hear that program at some point.
Lee and Kevin, I have read somewhere that the 2nd most likely nation to get tornados is …. China!! That might be wrong, it could be Canada, then China. Hey, Lee, how is one of my favorite little doggies?!
For you folks in Bedford County, I (and probably lots of others here in the Roanoke valley) am getting a taste of what happened to most of you back on January 17th. Dry-hole. Maybe one drop in my rain gauge. After tomorrow, SW Virginia goes back to the much colder than normal temps for Wed.-Thurs.
I must have invoked “Khan” without even meaning to. Raining here now, and the radar graphics look very promising, because the rain is approaching from the South or SSW, which usually is good news for healthy rainfall amounts for Nurse Snow, wd, and me.
Today’s polar view looks very good for cold. Pretty strong vortex is sticking around for at least a few days over Hudson’s Bay, and a weak block over eastern Greenland. If this were January or early February, snow would be likely.
China and Russia are always good bets to be 2nd in tornadoes strictly because of their huge land area. But tornado data is so limited in those areas, no one really knows.
Australia often is mentioned as a runnerup tornado area because it is nearly the size of the U.S. and we have some idea that a fair number of tornadoes occur there.
Bangladesh has an incredibly intense tornado season for about 3 weeks each spring with thousands of fatalities in some of their bigger tornadoes. Take the Rockies and double their height (Himalayas), the Gulf of Mexico and raise its sea surface temperature 5+ degrees (Bay of Bengal), then wedge a flat land area about the size of Georgia with 1,100 people per square mile (similar to New Jersey) between them and you can see why they might have a problem (cool dry air off Himalayas clashing with hot, damp air off Bay of Bengal).
My personal bet for #2 in tornadoes is Canada. Central Canada is just an extension of U.S. Great Plains, with tornadoes continuing there in summer when jet stream has lifted north of U.S.
Yay! I just emptied 0.60 inches out of gauge.
According to TWC, what I feared about New England is possibly going to happen. Flood watch for a huge chunk of central and (extending into the) northern half of that region, and also a sliver in NE New York state.
Just saw a great one-page graphic on TWC about the March 1993 Storm of the Century. I hope that none of this “steals your thunder,” Kevin. 26 states affected. 270 deaths. Cost in today’s dollars was $8+ billion. It affected 130 million people, just about half of the US population at that time. Largest snowfall was a huge 60 inches on top of Mt. Leconte, Tennessee. joe, you can guess the answer to this one without a 2nd thought. Largest wind gust location? Yep. Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 144 mph.
One last comment before Kevin updates the blog. 46 this Tuesday morning and we have had “0.67″ inches of rain. The wind is starting to pick up as the rain is ending. Still cloudy but hoping to see some sun today.
Kevin,
Thanks. You should be able to find that show at Diane Rehm’s website. Doug. Maggie is thriving, thank you very much.
Got a nice 3/4″+ soaking overnight. Managed to get a fair bit of additional yard work done during the evening too, before the rain moved in. While it looks to be chilly the next couple of days (after today anyway…maybe I can take advantage of it this evening), the weekend looks warmer…though the weather may not be fully cooperative. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see…but it has felt great to be outside lately. From mid-January until this past weekend, there simply weren’t enough days warm enough that I had off, where I could do anything outdoors. I’m glad for the slow transition away from winter now.
Wow. 1.27″ overnight near Lexington, so far. That’s a lot more than I was expecting when I turned in last night!
Just had to add the temps dropped to 42 in the last hour after the rain passed through.
I’m focusing more on local impact, Doug, so no thunder-stealing. Though I have found some information that suggests 300+ deaths.