More precip, mostly rain, moves in
A new area of heavier precipitation is moving across Southwest Virginia into the New River and Roanoke Valleys for the late afternoon and evening. The cold-air wedge has held firm, with temperatures only in the mid 30s in most elevations below 3,000 feet and still near the freezing mark higher, with freezing drizzle and light snow having fallen much of the day in some locations. As the new precipitation shield moves in, some sleet or maybe even wet snowflakes are possible for a while, until the warmer air aloft bringing in the thick moisture takes hold and temperatures are above freezing throughout the atmosphere from cloud to ground. Rain could even be heavy at times. This is moving out ahead of a cold front that will sweep in late tonight and Tuesday, with the new Arctic air mass taking firm hold by Wednesday, keeping temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal (40s highs, 20s-30s lows as opposed to normal 50s highs, 30s lows) through the remainder of the week. There remains a potential late week/weekend storm system that could spread moisture into that cold air, but its track still varies greatly between forecast models. Hopefully this comes into better focus by midweek.
March 18, 2013 - 3:45 PM
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Sleeting at my location just south of Roanoke (1400 feet elevation) now.
I could be wrong about the following, but I bet this wedge hangs in here (in Roanoke valley) until the winds pick up and are out of some direction that doesn’t include an “E.” I have seen these things many times before, and they can be stubborn sometimes.
Forgot to mention. Temp briefly reached 34 here, now going down a bit, 33.5.
Heavy rain now falling here west of Blacksburg. Still 32 degrees so ice rapidly forming on trees and shrubs. Hope the “warm” air arrives soon.
Ironically, it may take a cold front to break the cold air wedge.
It’s not really supposed to have broken today. It’s just modifying more slowly than forecast.
Sleeting pretty heavily at my location in SW Roanoke Co now
I realize that, Kevin. I will be happily surprised if/when we get over 45* tomorrow. I realize that the last I looked, “everyone” is forecasting temps to get at least into the low 50s in Roanoke and Lynvhburg tomorrow. We shall see. I am not predicting a busted forecast, but this is one type of scenario that I/we have seen busted forecasts before, and not just once or twice previously.
Heavy rain here i havent seen any wintry weather here.
I don’t recall seeing a 90% shaded area of colder than normal temps before, much less being inside of it. Add a little precip, and I think that means snow.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The Weather Channel Hourly forecast (which can be either more accurate than the local TV stations on rare occasions, but probably more often is not as accurate) is predicting a big warm-up in just 8 hours, up to 43* in Roanoke City by 1 AM, and to 47* by 5 AM. I hope that they are right, or even close to right. They show winds out of the SE and then SSE later tonight, so I may have been not precise/accurate enough when I said winds not having an “E” in them (maybe should have said winds that were not E or NE or any combination of the two).
Just watched Brent W. on “7.” He also shows temps rising a bit overnight, but only to 39 in the ‘Noke, as some of you like to say. The WDBJ7 weekly planner already has a Sunday forecast of “Rain/snow” on it. Jean Jadhon, the anchor and a fellow snow hater, I think (I once found out that she is originally from “Snowville”, as in upstate New York, not the town further down I-81) just sat there with her head down and shaking it, “regusted.” She definitely is in the “ready for spring” camp.
Just had a comment disappear …. took too long to hit the “Submit” button. The Weather Channel is predicting a big warm-up over the next 7+ hours in Roanoke city, to 43* by 1 AM, and all the way to 47* by 5 AM. Once in a while they are more accurate than the local TV stations and the NWS, but probably more often they are less accurate. Just watched Brent Watts on “7″, and he too is predicting temps to rise overnight, but by not nearly as much, only to 39* by 7 AM.
WDBJ7, the most conservative local TV station usually about predicting snow, just showed its weekly planner at the end of the weathercast. It showed “Rain/Snow” for Sunday. Anchor lady Jean Jadhon just sat there with her head down. I learned a few months ago that she is originally from real snow country, upstate New York. She definitely sounds like a snow hater, like Sam Oakey, Newman and I, probably for the same reason that I am ….. she has already seen more than enough big snowstorms in her life. After Brent posted that Sunday outlook, she looked “regusted.” I thought it was amusing. Definitely in the “I’m ready for spring” group, I bet.
To JH from the COLC: “You can’t always get what you want …..”
oops, sort of a double posting. Wonder why I got an error message after hitting “submit’ after the first message of “ERROR: Please make a comment.”
Sean Sublette of “13″ is predicting a much colder low in ROA. 32*, although he also said that temps may rise overnight (???). Low of 34* in L-burg. Big warmup to 58 for ROA and 59 for Lburg, according to him. West winds will be kicking up like at least “highly irritated” mules tomorrow PM . Brent and Sean and I bet Kevin all agree with fairly big winds then, especially along and west of the B.R. wd and especially Doppler Carol, batten down the hatches. How are your woodpile supplies holding up?
Thanks Rick, for posting the CPC 6-10 day. Most of the eastern half of the country looks like someone spilled a large quantity of fairly dark purple ink on the map.
I just looked at today’s polar view, and it shows a few changes. Huge area of green air covering all of Greenland earlier today, and it is almost cut off from the rest of the green air over the North Atlantic.So that there must be a Greenland block right now, and that certainly is consistent with all the much colder than normal temps between here and northern New England and probably into SE Canada, also.
More. The polar vortex that was over Hudson Bay Canada yesterday has morphed into two separate pieces. One has moved a bit west, and might be just a bit weaker than the one yesterday. But there is now a separate one over extreme eastern Quebec, the Maritimes, and Newfoundland that has brought colder air to that region.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is definitely on its way to fulfilling the outlooks of a steep plunge to -5 or now even -6 by the 2nd half of this week. It fell from -2.1 to -3.0 today.
Still not ready for Spring exactly yet. Haven’t had enough snow. Realize I live in the wrong location for multiple times of large amounts. Still doesn’t hurt to hope for one last burst of the white stuff…
Jared French – Did the NWS Sterling snowfall map that had western Greene Co. getting 4″-6″ today verify? If not, don’t worry, the real deal comes late Saturday night through Monday morning.
1 1/2 inch hail at Atlanta Airport…
many many diversions..and in guessing dozens of airplanes
not flyable till they’ve had inspections..
bad night for Delta…
Atlanta press will likely have it covered soon..
31 on Doppler Ridge with rain. Was only 32 for a brief time this afternoon. Ice is still on the trees and actually looks like more.ice forming on the trees. At least the car and decks are just wet and not encased in ice like they were earlier. Still no wind but the fog is thinning out. Waiting on that warm air to arrive.
Joe: Been noticing my VT storm chaser friends posting mesocyclone and tornadic radar images from Georgia storms today.
was bad down there Kevin..
there were several rotations spotted..
Delta is not in good shape right now..
probably 50-75 airplanes with hail damage.possibly more.
ok! thats it, we need to fire the groundhog!!!!!!!!!!
Just emptied the rain gauge here 5 miles east of Rocky Mount and had .40 inches in it. No ice whatsoever all day. joe.. I for one am curious on the Pocket City thingy. I guess it’s weather related because so many things in aviation are dependent on weather. Care to elaborate? And BTW, hate to hear about ATL… Delta will surely go up on fares.. somebody has to pay for the hail damage.
If the temp at ROA airport does not rise above 36* by midnight, then today looks to be a -14 vs the normal mean. That translates to close to a 1 degree drop (about 3/4 degree) in the month-to-date average temp. Roanoke will drop from 2.3 degrees colder than normal through yesterday to about minus 3.
DT is thinking this is gonna be a Miller A! Wasn’t the huge storms of 93 and 96 Miller A storms? He is also comparing the set up for this storm to be like February 2010 where we picked up 2 foot here in Greene. Guess we will just have to see what happens.
arthur, great comment. This year’s prediction had to be one of his worst ever. He and the Old Farmer’s Almanac are in a tight race for worst prediction. ……. Check that. Rick, I think you made a small error a few days ago about the OFA’s prediction for the Appalachians for March. According to my copy, it predicted February to be 5 degrees colder than normal, and March only 3.5 degrees warmer than normal. Which is still way off.
Blacksburg Mike, we had a few inches down route 810, but I’m sure a Tad higher amounts were further up the mountain near Lydia.
Tonight’s DGEX for the late weekend blizzard has ALL of VA (except Tidewater) getting 12″+, with the bullseye right over RNK/NRV getting an incredible 24″-40″. Folks, this is the best potential yet for a decent snow storm. Could it be our third biggest ever, only behind ’93 and ’96?
I just found an analysis by a young man named Tyler Sotock on youtube of what this summer might look like. I looked at what he posted in late autumn of 2011, and he was incorrect about the winter of 2011-12 like a zillion other folks. But I liked the way he “fessed” up to it in mid-winter and described why his outlook went haywire.
I would greatly appreciate the reactions of any of you folks who are really tuned in to models to give it a look. I am not so much worried about the specifics of WHAT he predicts (My gosh, we are more than 10 weeks from the meteorological start of summer on June 1) than I am in whether you (plural) think that his reasoning is good. Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF52RzYJJhI&list=UURfHvUjs4c-Wn1WmKN7HL6Q
FYI, he was analyzing the JMA model outlook for this summer, and it seemed to show what a couple of you have already mentioned about rainfall, that the East is supposed to be a bit wetter than normal. And the shocking part was that it seemed to be predicting the core of the heat (“heat” being a relative term) to be in the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, with the East being a bit cooler than normal. Young man seems to know his stuff, although I would disagree with how he categorized some of the previous summers before the most recent six.
Dance with the DGEX at your own peril, Mike. It was also the bullish model on the Sandy snowstorm for Virginia in October.
Pieces are on the table for something interesting this weekend — if they come together just right. It has to be a little more “right” in late March than January. But this is quite an unusual pattern we’re entering.
And Mike, dance with a single model run (or even several model runs) about a week in advance at your own peril, also. I am definitely a believer that somebody somewhere gets a big snowstorm sometime between the 23rd and 26th, but have no idea where.
By the way, the PNA is negative right now but will soon be rising to neutral or even +. NAO continues to be a bit negative (about -0.7) and is expected to drop to about -1.4 or possibly even a bit more neg than that. The 3 oscillations are definitely providing a very promising picture for eastern snow, despite the calendar.
back home after long week in the sky. really tired will update next week’s snow potential in the morning.
Doug, comment 26, get your facts straight! You posted the OFA predictions for Feb and March for the “Atlantic Corridor,” not the Appalachians. Rick was right a few days ago …. OFA predicted March to be 5 degrees colder than normal. Go take some vitamin E or something, old man.