Party’s over … winter returning
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NORTH OF ROANOKE MONDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
Saturday was one of those days that worked out perfectly to maximize the warmth. The first batch of showers blew through quickly near sunrise, and the air dried out quickly amid southwest winds and sunshine. Roanoke hit 77 and Blacksburg topped out at 70. Lynchburg soared all the way to 80. Then, the next thin line of showers and storms didn’t arrive until very late in the afternoon. It was an amazing day for the St. Patrick’s Day festivities in downtown Roanoke … but judging by what is ahead, quite likely the warmest day we’ll see this month of March.
From Sunday into early Monday, a wedge of colder air will be working down the eastern side of the mountains — the pattern of it shows up pretty well in this map of projected lows for Monday morning. As you can see, the low is expected to be 34 at Roanoke, with darker blues just north and west. With moisture streaming in as multiple disturbances approach (and, ultimately, a stronger low moving through the Ohio Valley), there will be periods of rain Sunday and Sunday night As temperatures gradually push downward into the 30s overnight Sunday into early Monday, the threat of mixed precipitation — snow, sleet and some freezing rain — will increase from north to south and from higher elevations to lower elevations. As you know if you’ve followed previous wedge situations, pinpointing when temperatures reach a certain point at a given location, how low they get and how long they stay that way is often very imprecise. Suffice it to say for now, expect the possibility of some slushy patches late Sunday night and Monday morning, mainly north and west of Roanoke (including most of the New River Valley), and at elevations above 2,500 feet or so. The 1,200 to 2,500 foot elevations in and around the Roanoke Valley and southward down the Blue Ridge, may be on the bubble between cold rain and a wintry mix. Farther north, from Augusta and Highland counties northward, winter storm watches are out, with elevations above 1,500 feet in those areas expected to have the greatest chance of heavy snow and sleet. By later Monday, southwesterly winds from the low passing northwest of us are expected to scour out enough of the cold air to allow all precipitation to return to rain in Southwest Virginia. Being mid-March, the chances of a stubborn below-freezing wedge hanging on all day as sometimes happens are much less than they would have been a month or two ago, but areas that get snow/sleet accumulation close to I-64 may hang close to freezing much of the day.
Long-term, high pressure blocking in the high latitudes near Greenland and the North Pole is expected to force cold air southward into the central and eastern U.S. much of the next two weeks. Late in this coming week, there is a storm system moving off the Pacific that will cross the U.S. Forecast models, as typical, are varying on its track, from suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico to much farther north. There is a significant chance that at least some moisture from this storm will reach Southwest Virginia, and also a good chance that if it does, it will be cold enough for at least some of it to be snow, despite the calendar by then clearing reading “spring.”
March 16, 2013 - 9:35 PM
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I should have known that yesterday and today would get warmer than forecasted. SW winds and sunshine really warm things up to an amazing degree this time of year. I have seen this happen quite a few times in March in previous years. But I thought that the skies would turn cloudy by not later than 1 PM, because I believed the TWC hourly forecast that I brought to work. They had 50% chance of a scattered t-storm from 1:00 on here in Roanoke city. I was skeptical of rain that early, but not of early cloudiness. They were off by about 4 hours on a forecast generated at 6AM.
watching the weather channel this afternoon showed a lot of cold air in canada just wating to plunge south. kevin, any chance this stops short of reaching here?
CAVEAT: The ’6-10 Day’ and ’8-14 Day’ temperature and precipitation anomaly charts issued on weekends are…unlike the M-F versions… untouched by human hands.
That said…ignore them there ‘Snowmen Prophets of Doom’ right soon…
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/03/winter-12-13-vcp32-snowmen-prophets-of.html
NEWxSFC Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/03/winter-12-13-storm-6-call-for-forecasts.html
Might could be our last chance for winter’s goodness.
Hey, Steve Murray, great to see your comment on the previous thread.
I just looked at Saturday’s polar view map, and it is fairly amazing. There is a “bubble” of warm (green) air north of Alaska, and it may be that item which will contribute or cause the AO index to plummet. The polar vortex over Hudson Bay has intensified quite a bit over the previous 24 hours, with its core now pink. There is bright blue cold air (stronger than yesterday’s) over Nova Scotia, getting very close to Newfoundland and a 50-50 low. The warm air over Greenland has moved further north, covering more of that huge island. So far all of these signs point to an increasing chance of BIG cold for the East and us.
Based on some of the forecast I’ve seen, the next time I will see temps over 70 degrees will be when we fly out to Phoenix on April 2nd.
I personally have not had my snow fix for the year…. it would be nice to get some snow!!! Not getting my hopes up though.
Temp has steadily dropping since the mid night high of 59.5*. Now 50.4*. Strange goins on here this morning. The wind ain’t blowin shingles off the house. Most weird.
The overnight run of the GFS plasters all of Virginia with a foot or more of snow on the 23rd. I think it’s been drinking too much Red Bull.
“The 1,200 to 2,500 foot elevations in and around the Roanoke Valley and southward down the Blue Ridge, may be on the bubble between cold rain and a wintry mix.” So I am on the bubble, huh? Well, if it will get us some moisture in the ground for the gardening season, I guess it will be okay.
This morning it is 45 with light sprinkles and (sssshhhh) very little wind. I know that it won’t last though.
I was glad to see sunny for the forecast on Saturday when that day finally slid into view on the NWS as we have fireworks for Ring Dance at VT that evening at midnight. Is that going to stick KM?
Was in the C-burg Walmart for the storm that blew through Saturday – a few good claps of thunder! I was feeling overdressed for the weather when I went in and went I left, it was all washed and clean outside, much cooler so what I was wearing was perfect. This is definitely the ‘wait 10 minutes and the weather will change’ time of year, when Orion has shifted to the western sky in the evening and will soon dive out of view until late fall.
LOL Brandon R. on comment #8! Well, it is supposed to give you wings….;) The 23rd is Ring Dance! Mmm…coat (and boot) check could get busy…
47 humid, overcast degrees here in Hokieburg and no wind. Birds are chattering!
NEWx: Yep, the weekend CPC maps are computer generated. Mainly put it in small size above because I needed something colorful and in this case, Indon’t think it would vary too much, since Friday’s meteorologist-colored ones were pretty similar.
Brandon: That’s a long-term overrunning snow event morphing into a long-term coastal storm snow event on the GFS next weekend. Right now I’m thinking the overrunning part of that is within the realm of possibility. I’ll take a pass on the coastal storm, at least one positioned to affect our area, til I see more evidence.
OK, let me get this straight NWS has us in Winter Storm Warning for 4-8″ tonight and tomorrow? I just don’t believe it and now DT is talking about a huge snowstorm for Virginia on the 23-24! I thought spring was here, why couldn’t it do this between December and February when the snow could last awhile?
It’s time for spring. Old Man Winter had his opportunities and did not produce, it’s time for him to hit the bricks…
Dampish morning here. Same unusual doings that wd and “DC” have already commented on. wd, thanks for mentioning the midnight temp at your place in comment 7. I doubt that RRA was that high, but I am sure that it was well up into the 50s. My temp was 51 at 6:55, then down to 47 about 8:30, now down to 43. Hey, Mr. Temps, you are going the wrong way on what is supposed to be a one-way street!!
This is still another Sunday since November 1st that would not be a nice day to deliver mail (or work outside no matter what the job or activity) on a walking route. But at least it is not windy or icy …… yet.
***** Non weather comment. We usually get a fair number of deer in our back yard from time to time, like twice a week or so. I haven’t seen one in over a month. Anyone else notice that sort of thing? Or maybe this happens this time of year anyway? I have to admit I sort of miss the furry beasties. They are gorgeous creatures, and we don’t have a garden for them to munch on, which can greatly affect one’s point-of-view. When the newborn fawns would scamper around in late June or so, the Blonde Man used to go nuts inside. A funny scene.
B in C’Burg: Old Man Winter hasn’t been listening to anyone’s advice, and won’t be accepting any now.
Jared: The NWS is mentioning 700 feet as the lowest elevation for the winter storm warning snow now in you area. Are you beneath that?
True wedge setup developing today, with Roanoke running a little colder than Blacksburg, Lynchburg a little colder than Roanoke, and quite a bit milder (for now) in the 50s from Hillsville to Boone.
If it starts snowing in Roanoke on Monday morning while raining in Blacksburg for the third time this season, that would officially seal this winter as the strangest I’ve ever seen.
My wife is driving back from Williamsburg and is cville now and is reporting mixed precip falling there. Also temps in Bedford and Lynchburg appear to be in the upper 30s instead of middle 40s. Is this an indication of a Change in how things are shaping up for today and tonight?
runforfun: Wedge setups are notorious for being poorly handled in specifics by models and forecasters. It’s not uncommon for a wedge like this ito be a little stronger than forecasted. With temperatures forecasted on the bubble already, I am a bit leery for Monday morning for sleet/snow potential maybe being a bit more widespread than expected.
Now down to 42 at Roanoke airport. Definitely running ahead of schedule on the colder air seeping in.
All joking aside folks, it looks like we are in store for a 36 hour winter weather even (snow) from about 2am Friday through 2pm Saturday. That is where the “crazy talk” about Virginia getting bombed with 12″+ widespread snow totals are coming from. This is the first time this winter we have had the chance for a true long lasting snow event (18+ hours). It’s time to get excited!
36 where I’m at in Bedford. It feels like snow.
I will throw a fit if the long awaited “big ‘un” is next Saturday. That is the day of the long awaited Carrie Underwood concert, to which I have great seats and a meet and greet pass.
Check out the snow on route 250 at the Virginia, West Virginia border. Click the blue dot on the border on route 250 for a live view..
http://trafficland.com/city/I81/index.html
Doug, here’s our favoite whipping boy….The Old Farmers Almanac. It’s forecast for March is rally a flop. They say overall for the month will be 5 degrees above normal. Maybe 5 degrees below normal.
MARCH 2013: temperature 45° (5° above avg.); precipitation 4″ (1″ above avg.); Mar 1-2: Sunny, warm; Mar 3-7: Rain, then flurries, chilly; Mar 8-13: Rain, then sunny, warm; Mar 14-21: Rain to snow, then sunny, turning warm; Mar 22-28: Rainy periods, mild; Mar 29-31: Sunny, cool.
40.8* here and 37* on top of the Know[approx. 3000'].
“the Knob”
I don’t think I’m ready to get my hopes up for next weekend. I bitterly remember what happened the last time I got my hopes up too far in advance. Plus I’m driving to NoVA next Friday, so I’d either miss the snow or have to drive in it.
NWS Blacksburg is refusing to come to terms with the incredible cold coming late next week. They have highs for Thu, Fri, Sat around 45 degrees in Blacksburg. I am going to go out on a limb, and say we don’t hardly get to 35 those three days for highs. Winter is coming back in full force.
Blacksburg Mike, you may very well end up with the “Early Prediction of the Week” I don’t know about Thursday, but I definitely feel similar to you about Friday and beyond.
By the way, today’s polar view is now available, and it shows even MORE encouraging (or maybe “discouraging” is more appropriate, given how many of you/us want spring now) signs than yesterday. The Green Bubble (warm air!!) has moved even further north, practically at the North Pole, and that feature will push cold air away from the Arctic regions. The polar vortex over Hudson Bay is at least as strong as what it looked like yesterday, but its “finger” of cold air has now taken on a more north-south look. {Yesterday’s map showed the vortex aligned much more east-west} The southern edge of the purple air is close to Montreal, and not at all far away from the NW corner of Maine.
Also, the dark blue air now covers all of Newfoundland, looking very much like a 50-50 low. And the Green Bubble North Atlantic Version now covers the entire southern half of Greenland: A Greenland Block.
The polar vortex over eastern Canada is now the strongest one in the Northern Hemisphere. There is another one almost as strong over NE Asia (NE Siberia and possibly Mongolia). The Canadian vortex is the only one with pinks in its core.
Nowcast: It is 39* here, stuck on that number for at least an hour. How rare is a mid-afternoon temp in Roanoke to be in the 30s on or after March 15th??? Well, the following is an imperfect analysis, but bear with me. I just went back to 2000 and worked forward. There have been only TWO!!!! DATES after March 14th (through 3-31) when the high temp at ROA airport was below 40. 38* on March 22nd, 2002, and 39* exactly 6 years ago today in 2007 when the high was 39*. And I realize that today’s “high” temp at Roanoke will be somewhere well into the 50s, because of the mild temps at 12:01 AM. And obviously on March 30, 2003, the afternoon temps were in the 30s also, because Roanoke got about 5 inches of snow on that date. Temp progression must have been similar to today, because the high temp in ROA that day was 47*. Regardless, this is INCREDIBLY colder than normal afternoon. With more of the same likely during at least the next 6-7 days.
I have a “whopping” 2/10ths of rain in the gauge. Anyone else have some rain totals to report?
One more note about March 15th-31st temps. In every single year this century, there was at least one day during that timeframe when the coldest high temp at RRA was in the 40s (or lower) ….. except the blowtorch March of 2012. The lowest high temp between March 15th-31st last year? 61*!!! On the 25th and 27th. On 5 of those 17 days the temp maxed at least at 80*, 3 others were 75*, and 6 others were between 69* and 74*.
The high and low in ROA exactly one year ago were 75/55. In Blacksburg: 72/49.
The big plunge by the AO has started …. we will see if the consensus models verify over the next 5-7 days. Between yesterday and today the AO level dropped just about a full point, from about -1.2 to either -2.0 or maybe -2.1.
The AO ensemble outlook is still showing a huge plunge to -5 in about 4 or 5 days.
@ Rick, comment 25. Thanks for pointing out still another IMMENSELY bad monthly forecast by OFA. Obviously this one for 3-2013 will be way, way off, but the alltime booby prize has to be January 2006. OFA forecasted the Appalachians to be either 7 or 8 degrees colder than normal. Actual January variances for Roanoke and Blacksburg were PLUS 7.7 and PLUS 8.9. I think youtube fans who post certain videos would call that “EPIC FAIL WEATHER PREDICTIONS.”
I am glad to be headed to TN and GA all this week. Goodbye cold weather……………………….!
It is down to 35 and very thick fog up here on the ridge. I can barely see down my drive to the road – less than a tenth of a mile. Yes, and really weird – no wind- nada; zilch; nothing!
Remember the old butter commercial – “It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature”. I think Old Man Winter just does not want to give up. He wants to show us that he still has it in him – even though it will be spring according to next week’s calendar.
Nick in Ellett Valley – did you wish for snow for your birthday? Huh? Come on fess up.
Kevin- What if anything do you see in the line of frozen precipitation for the NRV overnight/AM?
Hot Springs auto reporting 1/4 mi vis light rain temp right on 32F..has had
Intermittent light snow since around noon..
would expect to see higher ridges white in the AM..
ROA expected to bottom out right at 0C..32F..
Glad I threw in the towel last week. Maybe it was reverse psychology because now we have cold and two chances of winter weather in the next week or so!
Guess who may be saved by tonight’s overnight precipitation event?? Kevin may FINALLY get a good break. Channel 10 lady forecaster is predicting an inch of sleet-slush-SNOW for Roanoke in the early morning hours. Warmest day for the next 7 days according to “10″? 53* on Tuesday, about 6* degrees below normal.
36.7* and has been dropping all day. Slow, but steady. Don’t know what the temps are upstairs but Bent Mt. and higher are close to freezing now, so when the rain sets in, if evaporational cooling kicks in, it don’t have far to go to be frozen.
37 in blacksbug. Kevin..maybe a little more snow than expected?
Most of SWVA is around plus 2C at 5000ft..
Yes Doppler Carol, I did wish for snow, but I’m trying to stay quiet about it so that I don’t jinx everything! Can’t get too excited either!
BUT I WOULD REALLY LOVE SOME SNOW ON MY BIRTHDAY!!! Haha.
Doppler Carol, you love snow! Was it your husband that said he didn’t want snow?
Kevin, the pattern is looking really good I think. And it will continue even after next week…is snow on Easter really possible this year? Even snow later into early to mid April?!
And Doppler Carol, it’s your birthday on the 22nd as well! No matter who tells you what, you have to wish for snow!!!!
Down to 39º on my thermometer with a slight wind from the NE. Dumped 0.2″ out of the rain gauge.
Kevin…. you should add a playoff game/week for the snow meter…. from what it sounds like, this week is mighty interesting….
Getting some light snow here.
33 and still dense fog up here on Doppler Ridge just after supper. Every now and again, I will hear a gust of wind but for the most part there has been no wind this afternoon. Can there be freezing fog? What would you call it?
Watching radar and which system is going to hit us up here – the one coming out of Kentucky or the one coming up out of the Gulf?
Wow, just hit a pocket of sleet in southwest Roanoke County. Sounded like hail on my car. Didnt’t last long but definitely saw the ice bouncing.
Nick in Ellett Valley – I was forewarned by the Man of the House that I was not to wish for snow for my (our) birthday this year. Once was enough! I am wishing for sunshine, warm temps and no wind!
34 with a wind chill of 28 in Bedford. It’s raw out there.
Oops- sorry to take up all of the blog entries – but I forgot to report that we have had “0.14″ inches of rain today.
Kevin, what time do see the steady precip. over Roanoke starting and how much evaporational cooling do think there will there be? Do CAD events have more or less or no effect on the evaporational cooling rates vs. non-CAD events? I know CAD events can be tricky to forecast especially ones that start off colder than projected like the situation we’re in tonight.
Drops just started pinging on the window – looks like light/moderate rain just started here 38.3* & dewpoint 37.9* – not a whole lot of room for temps to drop……yet?
Evaporational cooling is not the big key tonight, but how much cooler air (lower temps and dew points) can bank in from the northeast.
Surface temperatures are one aspect, but what’s happening aloft is critical. 32 at the surface and warmer air aloft leads to sleet or freezing rain. On the other hand, 33-34 in a thin layer near the surface and below freezing above that all the way to clouds leads to wet snow.
I think we’re going to have a hard time getting all the layers cold enough for widespread and long-lasting sleet/snow in the Roanoke and New River valleys tonight. Best window will be after midnight to a couple of hours after sunrise. More sleet/snow the farther you go northward.
Todd; To answer your question, a more developed CAD/wedge situation would involve dry air in many layers of the atmosphere inducing evaporational cooling with the onset of precipitation. This one is already largely saturated.
DC, if I’m remotely correct, freezing fog is pretty much called Rime Ice. I “think” I’m right because the Mt. Washington Observatory website frequently has pictures of it, and I’m sure it has to do with passing clouds and freezing surfaces.
Freezing fog is officially recognized weahter terminology. Some parts of the country issue freezing fog advisories.
I know for a fact that freezing fog is a big problem at times in Fairbanks, Alaska. Couple that I met years ago who lived there claimed it can happen at ridiculously cold temps, like minus 30 F!!
Attn Kevin…
Tis the season….Razorback to Springfield to St Louis..
MKCC WST 172355
CONVECTIVE SIGMET 30C
VALID UNTIL 0155Z
IL MO AR
FROM 40NE STL-60WSW PXV-40ESE RZC-30NNE SGF-40NE STL
AREA EMBD TS MOV FROM 24030KT. TOPS TO FL380.
CONVECTIVE SIGMET 31C
VALID UNTIL 0155Z
Thanks Kevin. Do I take Joe’s comment #44 as it’s cold but not all that cold up above @ 5000ft?
It’s about what it’s supposed to be, Todd. The question is whether that drops another 2C tonight to the freezing mark with freezing air below it all the way to almost the surface. That would support wet snow. Warmer air at 5,000 feet plus pockets of cold beneath could lead to sleet. It’s such a razor-thin call, beyond saying there’s a possible mix of precip types, it’s really just guesswork saying what it will end up being in great detail. It seems unlikely with warmer air moving in aloft later that we go to all snow for an extended period of time — but this winter has already provided a couple of surprises, so we’ll see.
joe, comment 61. What on EARTH are you talking about? I assume that it is severe weather, but we mortals need a translation. I know that Z refers to Zulu time, which is 5 hours later than Eastern Time ….. right? So 2300Z or 11 PM Zulu (London) time is equivalent to 1800 Eastern time (6 PM). Right? But what does “SIGMET” mean? And does “Convective” refer to t-storms, tornadoes, any type of high wind weather?
Hey kevin do you think we could see a flake or two…or once again too far south?
Hey kevin do you think we could see a flake or two…or once again toofar south?
I think Turkeycock Mtn might see some sleet, Kevin. Doubt it will be snow.
Doug, Re comment 41: If you’re talking about the snow meter, it ends at midnight, and I’ve already picked against Roanoke/Blacksburg getting an inch of snow. I stand to win at both sites in the last week if it doesn’t come up with a miracle inch before midnight (0.9 at Blacksburg, since they got 0.1 on Wednesday).
So maybe Virginia Tech’s Ring Dance will be a Snow Dance this year…..
35 degrees here, raining, and just ugly.
Flutie: I don’t think my combined 17-13 record between Roanoke and Blacksburg would warrant a postseason berth. Maybe the snow meter NIT.
Doug..Its called a sigmet…significant meteorological condition..
Tornado guys like Kevin get guidance from this info..
ILL Arkansas and Missouri..
From 40 Miles Northeast of St Louis to 60 WSW of Pocket City (Evansville)
to 40 ESE of Razorback (Fayetteville Ark) to 30 NNE of Springfield Mo back to the beginning point (plotted on map) 40 NE of St Louis..area of imbedded
thunderstorms moving from the WSW (240 degrees ) at 30 knots..tops to 38000ft FL380…
It just describes thunderstorms…where they are…and where they are going..
Sent it for Kevin since thats his old stompin’ grounds..
Been a slow start to the severe season in the central U.S., Joe. Which is good for them (and you!), obviously. And good for me in the sense that I’m not headed out til May 27, so a bit of a late shift on the severe season might help our timing (and getting this Greenland blocking thing out of the way in late March instead of late May!)
I think tonights rain is a good example of the challenges of winter weather forecasting. Over a week ago there were some calling for a snow event today and tomorrow. We currently have 37 degrees with pretty good rain. That means the forecast over a week ago is really only a few degrees from being dead on. In any other situation, a few degrees off and getting the precip right more than a week off would be considered a very good forecast. Had those mets continued to discuss that forecast this past week, it would now be called a bust and the whole thing way overhyped. And we wonder why so many mets are very conservative on calling snow.