Saturday looks mild, but some showers
Thanks largely to last week’s statewide rain/snow storm, Virginia is now considered entirely free of drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Something missing from March so far in the United States is tornadoes. There has only one confirmed tornado — in Georgia on March 4. January and February were active in the Deep South and Gulf Coast region, but March has started slowly. Last March produced the extreme March 2-3 tornado outbreak in the Ohio Valley, but conditions curtailed much of the rest of the year, with 2012 being an unusually low year for tornadoes nationally. The reasons for 2012 being a low year for tornadoes were largely related to the extreme warmth early in the spring season shutting down a lot of the contrasting air masses tornadoes form along, and the presence of extreme heat and dry weather in later seasons squelching tornado development. 2013 is a little different. There continue to be vigorous low-pressure systems, but so far in March, they have not quite drawn instability, shear and deep moisture together in a way for a tornado outbreak. My suspicion is that the tornado season will pick up a little later this spring, when warmer air and Gulf moisture tangle a little more regularly with colder air masses sinking in from the north.
Speaking of tornadoes, Weather Journal alum Kathryn Prociv has a post today on tornadoes in the mountains on USTornadoes.com. The Pulaski and Glade Spring tornadoes of 2011 are among those featured.
There are many St. Patrick’s Day-related activities scheduled for Saturday. The good news is that it will likely be the warmest day of the next week, and maybe the warmest day so far this month. Westerly wind flow will start pushing in some milder air the next couple of days, enhanced by downslope compression and warming as it moves over the Appalachians, pushing us into the 50s to low 60s on Friday and more widespread 60s on Saturday. 70 is not out of the realm of possibility for Roanoke and points south and east, if there happens to be more sun than clouds. The bad news, though, is that a bit more moisture coming in with that mild air and a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley may be able to squeeze out a few showers Saturday. It doesn’t look like a washout-type rain, but some light showers will be possible, so some umbrellas at outdoor events may be a good idea. Late Saturday, a new cold front pushes through, and it appears a wedge of cooler air may develop banked against our mountains Sunday and Monday. With moisture overrunning this cooler air mass, we may see more frequent and abundant showers than we do Saturday. At this time, it appears the wedged air mass will be colder than normal with highs in the 40s across much of Southwest Virginia, but not cold enough for frozen precipitation. I’m a bit leery of this, though, especially in 3,000+ elevations and north of I-64, where it’s possible it could get just cold enough late Sunday night and early Monday for some sleet or wet snow to reach the surface. Were it just a month earlier, there would be a more widespread threat of mixed precipitation, but the higher sun angle and longer days are far enough along now to have more effect on our near-surface temperatures. Even with that being so, it appears a cold front will renew colder than normal temperatures by mid to late next week, and long-term models continue to suggest normal to below-normal temperatures to be the rule through near the month’s end.
March 14, 2013 - 8:33 PM
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Shanon, according to what I found, there have only been three Easters that fell in March since 2000. March 31st, 2002 (Roanoke was +0.9 degrees warmer than normal for that month, Bburg was +1.3), March 27th 2005 (Mom was correct about this month: ROA had the coolest March this century at -3.1, Bburg was -1.7), and March 23rd, 2008, which was an incredibly early Easter (Roanoke was +2.2, Bburg was +2.6). So at least for these 3 March Easters, Mom didn’t do too well, Shanon. Maybe she would have done better for Bristol, but I don’t have those numbers. And she may have done better for 1997, 1991 and 1989.
Nurse Snow…
I have data for 7 of the coldest Marches on record for Baltimore..
1885, 1960, 1965, 1984, 1993 , 1996 , 2005
in 1885 Easter was Apr 5
1960 Apr 17
1965 Apr 18
1984 Apr 22
1993 Apr 11
1996 Apr 7
2005 Mar 27
Seems like that might be a bust…
MIGHT..
To poll the masses.. for all intents and purposes…. has spring sprung??? I for one say yes. Throw in the towel, call in the fat lady, file the taxes, it’s here!
Depends on how you define spring.
Snow showers on Wednesday and sub-50 highs today hardly seem spring to me.
Noting Joe’s list … 1960 and 1993 were obviously cold Marches locally with Easter in April.
Being in the NRV…I’m not entirely convinced we won’t see wintry weather again. Widespread accumulating snow? I think we’re done. But, additional upslope snow showers? Yeah, I think we see them again. But honestly, until it gets to mid/late April and it looks like we won’t dip back into sub-freezing temps at night, I never fully accept that it’s spring…even though a lot of stuff has bloomed by then.
To me, having snow showers, or even a single bigger wet snow, doesn’t mean spring hasn’t begun. We’ve historically had long stretches of warm weather interrupted by a strong cold front and/or wet snow, and then it resumed being warm again. That just means we had a spring snow instead of a winter storm.
I always feel like spring has sprung when we have some stretch of warm weather over several days after March 1. Haven’t really defined that number. Maybe 3 days of 70+ in a row, or 5 days of 65+.
Just like with fall, there is a certain feeling or even smell in the air when spring has truly begun.
I know it when I feel it or see it, and I haven’t felt or seen it yet. This still feels like late winter to me.
Most days this month have absolutely felt like what late (and in quite a few cases, “mid-”) winter feels like. This is “not fair” for our walking letter carriers, but they don’t complain. Real good group.
Looked out back when I got home. FSS.
This stretch of cooler than normal weather really dates back to February 16th. Roanoke and I assume Blacksburg too have had very few days during this span warmer than normal, especially if counting only the days that are +3 or more vs. normal. Because most of winter was not this way at all, I have avoided mentioning the following. But I now think that the odds are increasing daily that sometime later this month or maybe not until early April, we will have a sudden surge of warmth, not just a gradual warm-up.
Kevin mentioned the above phenomenon back in late February or March 2010, and that is exactly what happened. Still had a patch of snow in my back yard on about March 10th, but by 3+ weeks later not only had the forsythia bloomed but the dogwoods and cherry tree were in steroid full bloom on Easter Sunday, April 4th. Temps in very late March and for about the first 8 days in April skyrocketed to the very high 70s, 80s, and even one 90, I think. All this after a February that was brutally cold, a -6 for ROA I believe. I am not saying that the warm-up this time will be anywhere near as crazy as that one was, but I have a feeling that we will get a week (mostly) in the 70s here in Big Lick in less than 30 days.
I agree that it doesn’t feel like spring yet, but my birds are certainly sounding like spring. Of course, that could be wishful interpretation on my part.
My friends and relatives up in New England have told me many times that they really don’t like late springs up there, because there have been years in which they really don’t have a spring. Temps hover in the 40s and low 50s for highs for weeks on end, right into the heart of May, and then (as John Madden used to exclaim on the CBS NFL games ….) BOOM!! Temps in 70s consistently. The vegetation that was very late in coming out suddenly blooms all at once, and doesn’t stay in bloom long, either. And it can really wreak havoc for allergy sufferers, particularly if the winter/early spring was wet and/or snowy. It has been so long since I have lived up there that I don’t remember that type of thing happening, but I am sure that it did. 1978 would be a very likely candidate. Boston’s Charles River was frozen on March 17th. I remember asking elderly folks back then if they could ever remember that happening before. None of the few folks that I asked could say that they had seen it before.it was so rare.
I am sure that those of you who have either lived in places like upstate NY or Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. can tell of the same type of thing, perhaps even more so.
I think that some region of the western USA is going to get pulverized with a huge snowstorm about a week or 8-9 days from now. AO tanking big, and the PNA will also be going quite negative, which often leads to a big trough out west. Plus, the CPC outlooks have been showing that half of the nation to be colder than normal for days on end now. Maybe more snow for the Great Plains to help out with the spring growing conditions? More likely to be in the Rockies, I think.
32.5* with stars. A bit of wind, so no frost.
Spring may not have sprung, but I’m still picking up limbs and sticks from the one big wet snow and all the nice wind we’ve had this winter. My fireplace never lacks for kindlin’ anymore.
Yeah, Kevin…it’s hard to put a finger on an exact definition, but like you I just don’t feel that it’s truly hit spring yet. We’ve had some more spring-like bouts of weather, but the return to colder temps for several days in a row has kept me from completely going into spring mode.
I think spring is on the way but winter doesn’t want to give it up just yet. The robins and male red wing blackbirds have returned and the buds on some of the perennial bushes and trees are starting to swell so I think spring is trying to take over. I agree, winter is not going to give up very easily.
23, no wind and lots of sunshine up here on the ridge this morning and it is Friday. Not a bad day at all – - – beware the Ides of March (March 15). Happy late Pi Day (3.14).
Spring hasen’t sprung yet ?? Maybe not but whats up with the wind blowing everyday ? If we had snow every day the wind blowed I would have gained all kinds of weight. Now days and the last couple years I just keep getting stood back up from falling over by the wind. If it was snow instead of wind I would be SUPER SNOW MAN and not a weakling. Oh well, Maybe next winter, Yeah, Right.
Sammy, Sammy: My son and I built 3 of your kin in our yard this year. You can’t convince him this was a snowman-unfriendly winter.
Thank you Joe and Doug! The weather in the Bristol/Saltville/Marion region does run a little bit cooler than Roanoke most of the time. I remember Easters growing up where I had to bring out my winter coat to wear with my new spring Easter dress to church, unfortunately, I do not remember the months. I really enjoyed the link to the White House egg rolls too Joe. 1948 and I believe 2005 both show up as being very cold.
Now, on to becoming “Nurse Gardener” LOL. My dad bought onion sets for me and my sister is bringing them up tomorrow when she comes for a weekend visit. My dad said that if I set up a bed with a canvas cover that it is ok to go ahead and set out the onions and plant my spring lettuce too. So that means the hubby has to go till the garden again!!!
Now, for signs of spring. The first sign of spring at my house is when my Old Fashioned Bleeding Heart starts growing. It has not even broken the ground yet! By this time last year it was in full bloom.
I’m certainly not going to be beating the drum big on this yet … but the GFS and Euro both slide a low across the Southeast next Friday with cold air firmly in place.
Note the GFS 6-hour precip (green) and where the blue line for freezing temps at a mile up is (Va-NC border).
http://tinyurl.com/avbdoc2
Kevin – next Friday????? What??? I know that I commented that one year I had asked for 20 inches of snow for my birthday (March 22) and it snowed 19 inches on March 21 but this year I have asked for spring instead. No more snow!!! This is a disclaimer – I did not wish for snow this year. Now Nick in Ellett Valley shares the same birth date so if it snows – check with him. LOL!
Kevin, I see the thick blue line running along the border. What tells you it’s a mile up and also 32*?
Also, where do you find that map?
The blue line is the 0C line at 850 millibars. That approximates to 1 mile above the surface (pressure thinning out as you move upward). It is often a decent indicator of the dividing line between rain and snow. Sometimes in spring there is more surface warming beneath a mile that can skew it a bit.
The map is the 174-hour map off this site.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=12&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip
Or for all the various model maps
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//
A week away, this could easily be a 40-degree rain. But even that doesn’t exactly shout “spring.”
I see the blue line you say is 850millibars and also 32*. It is also the 1028 line. Explanation how you arrived at all the answers for a thick head please. In other words, do all these numbers remain constant?
The main reason I know it is 850 millibars is because this is the 850 millibar map, and I just know that the first blue line represents 0C/32F (doesn’t appear it’s actually marked on this particular frame). The 1028 you see is actually on one of the black isobar lines in the Pacific Northwest, but it happens to cross the blue line at that point so the 1028 looks like it’s on the blue line.
Has nothing to do with a “thick head” on your part, WD — it’s taken me years to learn to decipher these maps without any prior technical training.
Since we were talking about cold Easters..
thought some of you may appreciate this.
Bunch of Easter data in a small nutshell..
You numbers geeks like me may like it.
1940 was a little brisk in middle America on Easter.
Someone did a lot of work at NWS Peoria.
Theres also hisorical data for St Patty’s Day.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/?n=easterstatisticspeoria