Spring doesn’t get much colder
A year ago, March 21 was the coolest day in a 5-day stretch. Roanoke’s high was 73 — two days before and two days after were in the 80s. Roanoke’s low on March 21, 2012, was 54 — compared to a normal high of 59. It doesn’t get much warmer than that to start astronomical spring. But a year later, Thursday will be among the coldest days Southwest Virginia has ever seen once the calendar has officially flipped to spring. The NOAA map at left shows a projected high of 29 degrees at Blacksburg. If that were to verify — it may not, even if the afternoon is that cold, since it’s possible the early morning temperature shortly after midnight will be warmer — it would be only the second time in the history of Blacksburg’s weather data, going back to the 1950s, that a day in astronomical spring fell short of 30 for a high (29 on March 31, 1964, was the other). These 25-degrees-below-normal high temperatures are the result of an intense “blocking” pattern of high pressure that is trapping extremely cold air, relative to the season, across central and eastern North America. It shows up in the initiation frame of the European forecast model from this morning — the green colors are high pressure over Greenland and the North Pole, with the blue colors trapped to the west and south. This blocking pattern will only slowly ease in days ahead — some of the storm systems moving through will actually only add to it, becoming a log jam behind the strong high over Greenland. So it appears below-normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 10 days, perhaps even 2 weeks or more, reaching early April.
You’ll probably see a few snowflakes flying through the air in the Roanoke and New River valleys and farther west from time to time on Thursday, as is often the case when strong northwest winds blow up and over the Appalachians, lifting and condensing moisture in the cold air just above the surface. Enough snow to briefly turn the ground white may occur in a few spots in the New River Valley, and many of the usual places that get whitened in upslope snow situations (west of Interstate 77, near the Virginia-West Virginia border) will be again.
That brings us back to the weekend and the chance for a Palm Sunday snowfall. A storm system taking shape in the south-central U.S. will move east over the weekend. How exactly it moves and evolves, and how much cold air remains banked against the mountains when it approaches, will determine the proportion of snow to sleet to rain that we see in the general time frame of late Saturday night to Monday. The inland low will eventually transfer energy to a coastal low, but the bulk of any snow we get in Southwest Virginia may be determined by how much moisture from the inland low can be squeezed out in below-freezing air before it warms slightly in the layers above the surface. Generally speaking a more southerly track to the low, more intense cold air wedging from the northeast and a more southerly handoff of energy from the inland low to the coastal will favor more snow or snow/sleet mix for our region rather than rain. Forecast models will be slowly be fed greater and more relevant data the next couple of days and will hopefully pinpoint some of these attributes a little better. Best general idea now is to expect some snow, gradually becoming mixed with and/or changing to sleet and rain, sometime in the time frame from late Saturday night to Monday. But much is still in flux, as it always is more than 48 hours from a potential storm. The pieces are on the board that could be put together into the largest widespread late March snow we’ve seen in nine years. Stay tuned.
March 20, 2013 - 8:07 PM
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I’m a snow fan, and I know it’s going to be cold, but we have baseball this weekend so whatever falls I hope it’s late Sunday. Ironicly Roanoke City is on spring break next week where are all our teacher friends dropping ice cubes etc? I do find it funny kids might be in snow ball fights during spring break.
The worst about all this is my magnolia is blooming. I get one week a year with it in full bloom I hope this wont screw it up. Sorry snow fans I would give up this bonus round in a second for a nice long stretch of 70s.
Ditto Keith F
At this point, I have absolutely zero feeling for this, either way. If it snows, fine. If it doesn’t snow, fine. It’s going to be cold either way.
Keith, Roanoke City actually goes on spring break the week AFTER next (first week of April)… so I guarantee the TWLS are screaming “BRING ON THE SNOW!” (This one is, anyway.)
BULLETIN: I have figured out why Punxsu ….. er, The Groundhog, had such a horrendously bad forecast. He did not just see his shadow, he saw TWO shadows. When asked if he saw “his shadow,” and having “fur for brains” {which is how we referred to both of our dogs at times}, he got confused and said “No.” Because he did not see A single shadow. He really wanted to predict TWELVE more weeks of winter, in which case he did a fantastic job.
MORAL OF THE STORY: Phil needs to fire his agent.
Hey Laura the weather-addict: Looks like your husband can’t get away from weather-obsessed people at home or at work!
Agent?
forget it…he’s rolling…
pun on Animal House…lol
Kevin…Rogers-Bentonville
BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROGERS…BENTONVILLE
400 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013
.TONIGHT…CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY…OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW…LIGHT SLEET…LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING…THEN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
you get snow…either way..
same system..we are to be in mid 30-s Sun-Mon…
Thursday though…tomorrow ..mid 70-s…will be sending pics of Bluebonnets in the next few weeks.
I’m from the other corner of the state, Joe … Jonesboro, NE corner. Winter storm watch for potentially 3+ inches of snow on that corner of the state.
Just as it’s been odd that we’ve had a couple of snowing at Roanoke/raining at Blacksburg situations this winter, it’s also been odd that the northeast corner of Arkansas has been outdoing the northwest corner on snowfall.
D’oh your right Jennifer it’s the next week. OK I blame having a 7 month old who is going to have sinuous like his father and hasn’t sleep well in a few nights. Ok teachers wish away…
A reminder to the masses, we’re abandoning that drama from the previous thread per Kevin’s moderation. That being said, I’m not expecting anything other than rain again for myself and Turkeycock Kevin and Amanda and Mr Winter from FC. Our part of Franklin County is more the Piedmont territory as opposed to the Floyd portion. Randy on Cahas may get a bit of frozen stuff. I’m mostly predicting this because of the history of this past winter …AND my own brand of reverse psychology a few weeks ago by saying winter was pretty much over! Hopefully, I’ll be totally wrong!
Better trajectory from gulf maybe…I really havent been watching Ark much…we’ve really had a mild winter,,and from what i remember just one or 2 light ice events…I do know that the one we got Xmas bombed central Ark..
I had a workmate driving from Dallas to Maine…he said it was the worst blizzard like conditions he had seen in his life…cars and tractor trailers lined the road edges and ditches for many miles through central Ark..
Dallas was just at the edge of that,,,we got freezing rain sleet and snow…
horrendous travel day in Dallas…airport and airlines collapsed.
Ok Ok Ok …
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…JONESBORO
301 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
.TONIGHT…CLEAR IN THE EVENING…THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY…SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 6 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY…RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST
4-6 inches of snow and then rain on it all day Friday. What a sloppy mess that’s going to be. But I saw a lot of those kinda snows in my Arkie days.
I would guess that a meteorologist would have a much easier job in Dallas or Jonesboro than in Roanoke or Lynchburg. Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like there are less influencing factors there. I may be wrong, but I’m guessing that in the midwest, you mostly have the heat, drought, winds, deep diving cold fronts, snow storms on the Amarillo latitude, and thunderstorms/ tornadoes in the spring. Here we have miller storms, ice storms, clippers, wedges, overruns, hurricanes, heat, thunderstorms and in recent years tornadoes, drought, derecho on occasion, more flooding, and probably most importantly, more population. Remotely accurate??
Short answer, Matt: Terrain influences far more complicated here than where I lived in NE Arkansas. But lives-at-risk, high-stress severe weather situations are far more frequent out there.
Both extreme ice storms and derechoes are actually more historically common in Arkansas than SW Virginia. More frequent, generally larger snow events here. Heat worse there. Tropical effects are about a draw, both locations enough inland to get secondary effects from hurricanes.
Definitely would not say it is “much easier” for meteorologists out there. Much more stressful out there in severe season, considering that town-erasing tornadoes happen somewhere in or near the region almost every year.
Kevin,
Not sure if you were in the area back in 98, but today is actually the 15th anniversary of the tornado that came through Madison/Mayodan in Rockingham County, NC, then picked back up in Henry and Pittsylvania. Sadly, it killed two people in NC and did a lot of damage that some businesses never recovered from. The weather can be so fickle, especially the transition month of March. Thanks for the continuous updates. Put me down for snow, maybe if we have enough sign up it will happen.
And, before Joe jumps on this … there is no way that Roanoke or Lynchburg has more population than Dallas-Fort Worth. These are 1 stop-sign towns compared to that tangled weave of humanity.
I think if you’re wanting warm weather like I am the best case this weekend is a cold miserable rain. If its gonna be cold it might as well snow.
Matt I totally agree…wish we wrong though!!!
Keith F:Where is magnolia blooming? Sarvisberry and Forsythia haven’t popped in Blacksburg.
Matt in Franklin: Would you happen to be a scientist that studies marshes? I think we may be friends in real life!
*studys ….sorry
Ridgeway: I came a year after that. Have heard quite a lot about that tornado, though.
Temp dropping like a rock in Jordantown..Dad’s temp at 31. It’s 40.4 here in Goodview
Keep an eye out, New River Valley, there’s a pretty solid band of precip knocking at your western door. May diminish some headed east. Rain/snow becoming all snow.
Quinwood WVa has 2 inches from snow tonight. No shock.
Kevin..
Im not sure Matt really meant that regarding
the population..
That is unless Vinton has really exploded with people from
Botetourt and Montvale.(Just joking)
Dallas and Fort Worth are amazing right now..
Its 2 cities in 2 counties approx the size of Franklin..with
wall to wall business and city and suburbs.
If youve ever flown into this place at night in the last 10-15 years
you-d be amazed.
The area now has over 6 million residents.
In one year alone from July 2008 to July 2009
population increased by almost 150000 folks.
That would be almost double Roanoke proper in one year.
Dallas Ft Worth is nearly as populous as the entire state of Va
believe it or not.
And yes…winter precip here is very hard to forecast because like Roanoke
Its many times a very tightly timed scenario as to when and how deep the cold air is.
Its quite similar.
The gulf interaction cant be understated..and most of all ..at least
in terms of how it affects aviation, thunderstorms are one of the most
important to forecast accurately .
And the pinpoint issues you see discussed on this forum are just
as much of an issue here. Folks are paid here to forecast weather within
25 miles of many large airport terminals. (Through the country)
When you have a 30 percent chance that makes a huge monetary
difference to an airline if say theres less than 10 percent chance.
Suffice it to say there is much pressure these days for dispatchers
to use now-casting and waiting as long as possible before making
up flight plans…
Anyway..thats why im here…at least for now!!
I’m in Roanoke City 1000 ft and it gets sun all day. It’s a Saucer Magnolia and it has bloomed earlier than this before, but its always my sign spring is here.
I have a few pictures of it in this web album.
Kevin can I share?
https://plus.google.com/photos/100495337152614748998/albums/5742736631185763665
I got home at 10:15 with a couple of flurries in my headlights and 37. Now it’s 31 and everything but the road is white. Looks like we got a quickgood 1/2″ or so. It’s stopped now.
Warp snow alert for Hokieburg!
Oh, wait, the snow hasn’t stopped…
I fell asleep on the sofa, a male trick from way back. My dad sometimes did it, and my brother-in-law Malcolm is world class.
The polar view, Captain’s log 032113. The vortex over Hudson Bay has moved. There is a big swath of unusually cold air (dark blue) that extends from Duluth Minn at the western end across the Great Lakes area to Maine and perhaps just across the Canadian border into New Brunswick. There is a stronger vortex centered over the NE corner of the Yukon and really in the far NW corner of NW Territory of far NW Canada. The 50-50 low has moved well east. But as KM has mentioned, the block over western side of Greenland is still there, practically the same position as yesterday. There is a blob of warm, green air DIRECTLY over the North Pole, thus moving the cold air quite far south of the Arctic Regions.
Update on the AO (Arctic Oscillation) in a separate comment.
Jordantown just went from 30 to 42.6 in 30 minutes. 39.6 in Goodview
I slept nightly on the couch for years as a bachelor, Doug.
Snow band continues to diminish moving across the New River Valley. Don’t think there’ll be much left of it coming into Roanoke a little later.
Well, as Ed Sullivan used to cry out with his shrugged shoulders, “Well, now you know, now you know, let’s really hear it for the ….. Arctic Oscillation!!! It has invaded here all the way from near the North Pole ….” The AO has completed its “tank job,” bottoming today and maybe one more day tomorrow at approx. – (yep, that’s MINUS!) 5.1.
No wonder SW Virginia will have high temps tomorrow 20+ degrees colder than normal. Except that we will have yet another day when the high is at 12:01 AM. Temp at 11:16 PM was 44* at RRA, so that tomorrow’s high temp will be either that or 43. BOO. High temps during DAYLIGHT HOURS will be 36, according to “7′s” website. March 21st, and it will be colder than the normal high of January 21st by about 8 or 9 degrees!!!
The new GFS looks to be a Miller A set up but In not 100% sure:-/.
Also a big story about the NAO index. It was at -0.9 on Wednesday (now yesterday) and is going down fairly sharply to -2 during the next 7 days. Strong agreement on that. So even though the AO will start to creep up by then, the NAO block thing will be even stronger.
Hey, KM, if you are still awake, did you ever look at the polar view maps 3+ years ago? I did not even know that these things existed, but they are wonderful, awesome, etc. I am wondering if they looked similar for quite a few times during that 2009-10 winter to what they look like now.
I’m hearing a very evil Vincent Price-like laugh from Old Man Winter.
What the hack, let’s make it a hat trick. The PNA is negative now, at about -1, but is forecasted on all red spaghetti strands of the ensemble outlook to rise sharply immediately back to neutral. If these oscillations had looked like this back in December, January and early February, we would have had an incredible winter for snow and cold. Even more powerful than 2009-10. IMHO
YAYYYY!! Temp at RRA has nosedived nicely in the last hour, it was down to 39* at 12:16 AM.
Question for myself: Why are you still awake?
Answer: I don’t know. Not a clue. I guess I will blame it on Daylight Savings Time, which is now more than a week ago. Which is a lame reason.
DT just put a fresh post out saying the storm much further to the south now and colder which I assume is good for us. He said HEAVY SNOW for all of SW Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. I will believe it when I see it like the March 5th storm when he said Roanoke would get heavy snow initially and Roanoke varied a dusting in Vinton to the official 2.5″ at RRA. We saw about 4-5″ up in Fincastle. I bet the sweet spot will be the Waynesboro, Staunton, Charlottesville areas again because this seems to be that specific geographic regions jackpot year in the pattern we have been in. My friend in Waynesboro got 18″ of snow from that system.
As the old saying goes; “Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it”. Which no one can. Let’s remember that GOD is still in control. Thank him that man cannot do anything about it. Man has “screwed up everything he’s touched since the beginning of time.
28.9* with gusts in the mid teens. Haven’i seen any flurries tho.
Uh Oh! The GFS has jumped on the Euro train once again. Things are looking up for snow lovers! Kevin, you think the USA will try to find a better model soon?
26.8* with a few flurries.
Woke up to 1/2″ snow on the grass, deck, etc. Roads look ok.
Kevin, thoughts on the overnight/latest model runs? Are we indeed trending towards more snow at this point? We’re 3+ days out, so obviously there is still a lot of uncertainty, to be sure.
28* now. According to wunderground, the “high” temps so far today (I assume they were at 12:01 AM) at Roanoke airport and Blacksburg were 37 and 33. The afternoon “highs” will be just about 37 again at ROA and 32 at Bburg, according to both wunderground and TWC. I think WDBJ7 has ROA at 38*.
I think that the high at ROA was higher than 37 just after midnight. The icon on this page showed the 12:16 A.M. temp at 39*. Regardless, today will be ridiculously cold for March 21st throughout SW Virginia.
20º and windy here this morning. Had a skiff of snow that whitened the grass but none on the road or driveway.
19 and just a skiff of snow here and there. Very cloudy and you can see dark skies and bands of snow going across the horizon. Just a light breeze.
Hokie Trax – I heard that Vincent Price laugh too!
HECS OR MECS on its according to GFS
I guess when I said population, I meant density in the region as a whole… discounting the big cities. I know the midwest has 1000 acre fields, where we’re lucky to have a 100 acre field here. A tornado could swipe through one of those fields and affect nobody, but if it were here (and yes I realize they’re much weaker and infrequent here), it is almost guaranteed to affect someone. I guess it boils down to scale. We have more frequent “smaller” events, while the midwest has more “extreme” weather. And oh yeah, a few flurries just blew through Rocky Mount, but Bent Mountain disappeared for a minute earlier.
Very very light dusting here in my valley, looks more like a heavy frost. Looks much drier than most of the snow that has fallen this winter. Go figure. The trees are starting to bud out this way, but our daffodils are still not in bloom.
Well, I got a surprise this morning. A particularly intense snow squall set up over my house, and I awoke to heavy snow falling. By the time I left for work, a half-inch had already accumulated (in a little over a half-hour), and it appears to still be snowing as of now too.
Welcome to the first day of Spring!!!!! Everyone have there sweaters on? From what I have seen it looks like this weekend might line up for us, but can I have it hold off until late Sunday?
The GFS was colder but the Euro was a bit farther north. For SW Virginia, still looks pretty borderline. Would you expect anything else from this winter, evennow that it’s really spring?
Like I said back a month ago, March in SWVA can be a cruel month. Early springs have just recently become the norm, but I can remember in the mid-90s through the early part of the last decade how spring just sorta crept in.
I can remember on at least two occasions, having to deal with snow during spring gobbler season.
please tell me these snow squalls are going to end before this afternoon. US 460 at the Giles/Montgomery line was tricky on the steep downhills. I know its icy when people aren’t passing me……
Let it snow WJN:)
Giles is terrible. Half inch of snow that melted, got packed down and now glazes the roads. Salt wasn’t touching it, kids had to go to school and there were wrecks everywhere.
Matt: The population density of my home county in Arkansas exceeds every county in Southwest Virginia except Roanoke. You have to get really far west in the Plains, west of Oklahoma City, to get to those extremely sparsely populated areas — which is a big reason we often end up there in the storm chase each May and June.
I just think it’s highly unfair to tell a meteorologist in the Central U.S. their job is easier than one in the East. Many of the meteorologists in Blacksburg have worked somewhere in the central U.S. previously. They don’t speak in terms of easier or more difficult, but facing different challenges region to region. Pinpointing a severe thunderstorm warning on a 15-minute-long pulse storm with a 2-mile-wide hail core like we commonly have in summer is difficult; issuing 70+ tornado warnings in 48 hours during an outbreak is stressful.
Had a dusting of dry, powdery snow at my house in Hillsville as of 7:30 a.m. yet when I got to my workplace (about 4 miles West of Hillsville), there was no snow whatsoever!
Snow squalls will only gradually decrease during the day today.
Looks like there is one particularly persistent squall through eastern Pulaski County into southern Floyd County, moving over the same area over and over again. Maybe an inch or two locally in that band. It’s a common location the NWS has noticed a persistent snow band developing in previous upslope-enhanced events.
Wes: On the first day of the Weather Journal column in the paper a decade ago, I said we were only going to talk about the weather, not try to do anything about it!
Yeah, Kevin…that little sliver of eastern Pulaski County toward Radford and Floyd can get a solid dose of snow when the wind alignment is right…like this morning. This little squall has become the 6th biggest snow event of the year there…with about 3/4″…and possibly a bit more through the day, perhaps. But we’ve still yet to only have one event of 2″ or greater all winter. But lots of these little accumulations of snow from a slew of different events.
Seeing a few posts on Twitter about multi-vehicle accidents in Giles County, one on Route 100. Pretty good bet weather is a contributing factor at this point.
Just for conjecture: GFS “clown map” shows about a 3-4 inch snow for weekend in Roanoke-New River valleys. More north and west, less south and east.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Since I am 3100 feet + in elevation…at the border of Floyd and Roanoke County (Base of Poor Mountain)….I am see an interesting week-end of weather! Always fascinating weather, up here on the mountain top!
Matt..
also u talk of weather on the Amarillo latitude…
Thats a tenuous position.
Latitude isnt much of an issue regarding Amarillo.
what makes Amarillo different to its pals east is its
elevation..about 3600 feet…compared with same lat DFW
at 600 feet…Amarillo may as well be another country.
Latitude doesnt account for much. Amarillo has very little (almost no)
influence from the Gulf.
And remember Amarillo is far removed from the more populous
areas…just from Dallas…its 300 miles..like the same as Roa to Charleston SC..or Roa to Cleveland or Roa to Philadelphia.
If you fold Texas on its west axis to the left, East Texas would be in the Pacific ocean,,,if you fold it to the right El Paso would be in the Atlantic.
Talking about weather in a zonal or latitude is being overly generalizing
You can have snow in Amarillo and 80 degrees in Houston at the same moment…its not an unheard of event.
No influence from the Gulf at Amarillo … except when that dry line sets up a little west of there in the late spring, which is what we storm chasers look for!
To see the flat treeless terrain and to think I’m only a little below the elevation of the Peaks of Otter is truly amazing. Then travel south to Palo Duro Canyon and see the plateau cracked open, and one understands.
Amarillo would have been my No. 1 seed in the tough weather city balloting. Some of their car dealerships have individual roofed shelters for their vehicles because they’re usually good for 3 or 4 golfball-or-larger hailstorms each spring (except when it’s already 100 degrees and hasn’t rained for months.)
There was also a pocket of snow that developed this morning in central/south-central Virginia, now moving through Richmond and Petersburg, with some 1-inch accumulations.
This winter may have been lacking in snowfall, but it more than made up for it in the drama department. Our local Mets./bloggers are more than ready to move on to the quiet? predictable (lol) severe weather/tornado season where every mistaken comment or prediction does not threaten a cataclysmic end of the universe as we know it.
This winter certainly provided for plenty of fun, healthy, and informative debate on the WJN. Thanks to everyone for making this blog the place to be for weather info. NOW- Snow on the ground in April? With this winter, why not!
Just got a call from my wife, who is traveling on 221 toward Floyd from Roanoke. Pretty serious snow squall about 5 miles from Floyd, with snow accumulating on the road.
Kevin…
To add to your comments about west Tx..
The area around Amarillo has the remnants
of the extension of the Ouchita and Arbuckles..
there are some “peaks” That are believed to be
10,000 feet high….all underground.
Also Kevin….yes/…
Fixing hail dents in cars is big business here..
Often here hail is a life threatening event..
by itself…
Here is a bit of the infamous Mayfest hail event in Ft Worth
if you care to take a peek.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Mayfest_Storm
Yeah Pistol, dad wrecked his truck, but he is OK! Have seen complaints on Facebook that school is still open and wrecks everywhere. Sunny, but cold here with windchill in the 20s.
Amarillo and west Texas—perhaps the most godforsaken topography in the entire U.S. Crazy weather to boot, in which its always windy and either brutally hot or unbearably cold (especially with all that wind). Several years ago I drove from Amarillo to Lubbock, then down to Midland/Odessa, and finally back to Amarillo.
Let’s just say that when I landed back in Virginia, it seemed like heaven and I wanted to kiss the ground. If you ever want to appreciate everything we have here, go spend a few days out there, and you’ll return with a greater appreciation of the Old Dominion.
Yes, just came back from a trip into Floyd. It was 20 and snow covered the sidewalks and also along the road. I would say maybe an inch on the ground. Where the pines shade the road, snow has accumulated there. Not that much up here on Doppler Ridge.
Almost wrecked this morning. Left lane 460 between Pembroke and Pearisburg was icy…very icy. Numerous accidents in the area. Vehicle behind me did exactly what I almost did. Lost control, went across median, through the other lanes and into guardrail. My fate would have been the same with a possible rollover because of my angle, except that I stopped just into the median before a rather steep decline into the other lanes.
Altogether, we have had a little over an inch here, and of course it was cold this morning with the van temp at 24* driving in to work.
My sister in Smyth County said the roads were white and the snow was still falling, but school was on time. She was surprised. She did state they had exams scheduled for today, so if everyone gets there safely it will be good. My hubby was traveling south on I81 towards Wytheville and then to Independence in Grayson Co today for work. He sent pictures of I81 around MM105 and the roads were covered with snow and it was still falling. I think these little snow squalls are putting out much more snow than the localities were expecting.
Dan: I love west Texas. Like the rugged open space. But I’d rather live in SW Virginia.
Trav, willing to bet that was my dad you saw hit the guardrail! Mom said he wrecked near Sandys Chevron. Oops, its now a pure station.
Oh, Leo Lady, I was supposed to tell you the I met “Micah” yesterday! A very handsome golden retriever
He does therapy on Wednesdays in the schools. He is such a sweetheart. I couldn’t help but love all over him of course.
We have softball pretty much all day on Saturday, so I am hoping it is not bitterly cold. We are having the Athletes for Autism fundraiser between Hidden Valley and William Byrd. They do a fundraiser every year, and for the 2nd year they have decided to have the beneficiary be Autisum and the monies raised will go to the Special Ed departments. If you don’t have plans, come out to Hidden Valley High and watch some exciting fastpitch softball on Saturday. Baked goods and concessions are available!
There was a fairly hefty snow burst at Valley View about 45 minutes ago. Came and went in less than five minutes.
I didn’t realize that Amarillo had that type of elevation nor that Arkansas had a population density greater than our area here. That’s why this blog is so great. I learn something new every day. I guess Amarillo is to Houston the same as Snowshoe is to Savannah. I’m hoping for some sort of precip this weekend because I’m headed to Snowshoe Monday to get my final snow fix for the year, and I’m sure it’ll be snowing there at 4848′ elevation.
Live report from Suffolk at 11:15 a.m. that snow and temperature is falling. Nothing showing up on radar at that location, though it is approaching from the near west.
NAM is now in range. Models trending at least towards someone in VA getting a sizable snowfall for late March.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE084.gif
Western mets don’t have it made when doing severe storms and tornadoes, but you got to admit that when doing winter weather, they can put their feet up. When a storm rolls off the Rockies and heads SE, everybody knows it’s going to snow. Question is how much? With that flat land and as DC has said ain’t nothin but a 2 strand bobwire fence twixt here and there, all the met has to do is find out if a strand is down or not. They got it made in the winter.
Saw that side of the valley getting fuzzy white, Brandon. Funny thing is I havent seen a single flake. Usually where I live south of Roanoke gets a couple of decent snow showers when there are vigorous upslope squalls in the NRV. Not today, unless it’s happeend since I’ve been elsehwere in the valley, also not seeing any snow.
It’ll be interesting to see what the 12z Euro does now. Seems the heaviest precip on the 12z GFS is just north of us, we just need a decent shift more south (i think) to give us. though i was looking at wundergrounds model loop so i don’t know. Though i think 3-5 inches of wet snow to me seems more and more plausible for this area for now, with the lower end seeming more likely.
LOL woops, sorry i mean to finish the above sentence ** Seems the heaviest precip on the 12z GFS is just north of us, we just need a decent shift more south (i think) to give is “potential significant snows”.
On off flurries here most of morning..sunny now.
WD: Arkansas mets today are struggling with where to place a rain/snow line with the Ozark Plateau as a factor. The caprock in the TX Panhandle, the Palmer Divide east of the Rockies in Colorado, things like that throw curveballs. If you get away from the interstates, the Plains arent nearly as flat as people say. I didnt know this til I started motoring down gravel roads and 2-lane rural highways in the “middle of nowhere” each spring.
Not sure anyone has it made on winter forecasting. Most of the critical stuff happens far above our heads, even above the ridgetops.
That said, NWS Blacksburg does have a reputation for being a difficult forecast area for microclimates and geographical factors, especially in winter.
Everywhere I go, I hear this:
“Only in (name your state), can it be (something extreme weatherwise) one day and (something opposite extreme) the next.”
And everybody thinks their state is unique in having those extremes that close to each other.
It’s been said for years in our forecast area that if you can get it right in Roanoke, you can get it right anywhere.
One thing I have learned in my travels..
Its not good to compare one place to another.
Every place has its pluses and minuses.
Every place unique.
Some places may be more comfortable
to live overall than others ..but much of that
is subjective.
Talk to the people that have gone to school
at Texas Tech in Lubbock…and tell them how godforsaken
it is and you-ll likely leave the conversation with
your opinion changed , head bowed…
and maybe a boot imprint in your bodies midsection.
WD…the barbed wire fence quote comes from a TV
weatherman (now deceased) here in Fort Worth,
Harold Taft.
Ive used it in this blog on a couple of occasions.
WD..
no…thats not true at all regarding the southern plains
and winter weather..
Sometimes people overestimate local features..
Theres a lot of mid and upper air features that totally override
hilly terrain.
Probably as much as anything Roanokes proximity to the
Atlantic has as large a bearing on its weather as anything else.
The NAM definately likes a big snowfall from Roanoke north.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Hmmm … Roanoke on southern edge of heavy snow shield on the models 3-4 days before a potential storm … Why does this ring a bell?
I believe that NAM when its on my lawn… Not that it can’t or won’t happen I just have trouble with it being this late in March. That would be a major snowfall at any point in the winter.
Kevin, i was thinking the same thing, the snow setup looks way too eerily similar to the early march event. The central Shenandoah Valley might again be where the heaviest snows appear.
i think we get the southerly track because the block is strong will see
No joe, I didn’t get the quote from you. I first heard it from D. Carol on this blog. As far as who made it up, I could care less. How come CO., Kansas, NE., and other states out there calls for a blizzard and they get one. No model changing like dirty underwear, just it’s on the way and it gets there. Check to accuracy rate for the states mentioned for winter weather against what we deal with here. Like I said, they can feel good about their forecast west of river most times. Puttem on the desk boys and take a nap.
Why Kevin…..do I hint sarcasm? LOL Yep, looks like a replay AGAIN!!!
Sorry WD I wasnt aware of your plains weather expertise.
Well I will say this about Sunday’s snow compared to March 5~6 ~~ the trend on the snowfall has been subtly south, whereas it was subtly north last time. May or may not mean anything.
More often than not, we are better off if we are not in the bullseye on the models 3 days out. I think in the past the pattern was more for the models to shift north, but the unusual blocking that is present this time may mean previous patterns don’t hold for this system.
wdbrand SW Rke. Co. 1827′ i wonder the same thing
Watch. We will not get anything just like the beginning of the month. It will all go to Charlottesville. Lets hope I eat my words! Hope you are right Kevin about it possibily going more south this time.
Trevar, I agree. After reading Griggs’ daily teletubbie reports I was under the impression the negative readings he was posting were “historic” and “unprecedented”. Are we in uncharted waters here with this strong of a block and a MJO in phase 8 or 1 or have we been down this road before? Kevin, are there similar set ups to compare it to ?
And lets just play the law of averages, we’re sitting at about 12″ for the season, after last years pitiful total – we’re do for a few inches…..maybe something even moderate…….hoping and starting to hug models
Joe, that makes two of us. However, I can identify a 2 strand barbed wire fence if you ever need my help. And tell you whether a strand is down or not. And can do that without a model. Just call BR-549.
Today ranks right up there with the best this winter has thrown at us. Bent Mt. has disappeared several times. Haven’t seen it over low 30′s all day and as usual, the wind has been whippin. Surprise, Surprise.
hey kev do u think this will be the last winter event of the season or do u think we will get one at end of mounth like farmers almanac is predicting i think we might get some snow form this storm
RIng that bell one more time for Zach to pull out his bold move from March 6 again. Except this time the temps will be closer to the freezing mark and the column should be a little cooler provided that the bulk of the precip falls overnight. If this event starts earlier in the day when it’s warmer, it will be wet for most areas. Right now as the models slowly come together, it looks like a sure bet for another “North of 64″ snow event. Again Southwest VA will see lesser amounts…unless there are further shifts to the south. Regardless, this event is weaker with less moisture to work with so no one should see accumulations over a foot…more like a widespread 3-6″ wet coating with the higher elevations above 1500′ seeing the higher amounts.
The Thursday 12Z Euro operational loop from Allan Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA_loop.html
The Miller A “BIG UN” scenario at this point is out. All “B”
QWC is updated BTW.
Henry Martin…to answer your question, the Euro and GFS are both showing something around the 31st and could still be just cold enough for another snow chance. Still a ways out and long way to go plus that sun is starting to get warmer each day too.
Shanon: You are right, Micah is a delightful dog and one of my favorites. I am glad to hear he is doing well and still working. I know he is an older dog now. After catching up with today’s blog entries, I think we may have a chance at some snow this weekend. Time to do a snow dance.
Right now for SW Va — I think we start as snow and end as snow on Sunday-Monday. It’s what happens in the middle — whether the low comes far enough north to pull warmer aloft to change snow to sleet and/or rain — that will determine if it’s just some novelty slush or a memorable spring snowstorm. Those who have mentioned a medium snow — 2-5 inches or so — that’s about where I am at this point, too. The atmosphere will be COLDER than March 5-6, even though it shouldn’t be climatologically, so a better chance the initial precipitation falls as snow.
I don’t think this will be last shot at snow, as weird as it feels to say that on March 21. I once thought March 5-6 was the last rodeo.
A 6-inch snow would put Roanoke and Blacksburg just about right smack on normal seasonal snowfalls.
HPC now at coin-flip chance of 1 inch through early Sunday evening for much of our region … and low probabilities of 4+.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2013032200f072.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge04_2013032200f072.gif
Keep in mind there may be additional snow past this timeframe.
NWS Blacksburg now going 80 percent chance of snow for Roanoke on Sunday night. They’re going a little different than I suggested above, with more of a rain/sleet mix to start, gradually giving way to snow by Sunday afternoon.
From Accu:
The storms are likely to be at peak late Saturday into Saturday night while centered over the Mississippi Delta region. These severe storms are likely to move quickly and would finish up Sunday along part of the southern Atlantic coast.
According to Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity, “The greatest risks…are large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. However, provided the right conditions develop, isolated mature storms could yield a few tornadoes.”
Kevin..
Ref your post earlier about dry line..
One forming now in West Texas…
Thunder now in forecast within 25nmi of DFW
by 23z…(NW of DFW)
right now there is zero on radar…so we-ll throw that into the pile
with how easy it is to forecast south plains weather.
Could be an interesting night,,could be boring..]but have already had flights hold into JFK with a heavy snow shower…
Its never really boring..
High pressure over Greenland is now reported to be 1074 millibars — 31.7 inches of mercury. 32.1 in Siberia in 1968 is considered to be the world record.
This is a historic NAO-/AO- late March episode.
Jared and Tayree and pistol pete (and anyone else who either lives in Giles or has close family there), what is the feeling among the locals about having school open in Giles County today? If someone has followed up on that since late morning, I apologize (I’m working my way through the vast number of comments today).
I bet that Nurse Snow and others who either teach or work at schools in the Salem, Roanoke City, Roanoke County or Vinton areas can verify that the outrage would be immense locally, even if the weather forecasters had little warning that roads were going to be that bad. I think there might have been one such experience locally many years ago (Like 8 to 10 years ago), although probably not nearly as dangerous as the roads must have been like in Giles today, and the outcry was pretty big.
Climate Prediction Center March forecast, issued in late February, is a total bust from coast to coast.
https://plus.google.com/photos/115333506137843021021/albums/5857906577621377505/5857906576588649954?authkey=CN3Hn9WXn6vnxwE
… well except maybe in those West Texas areas we’ve been talking about, that were projected warmer than normal and have been.
The five words in the header at the top of your post almost says it all.If you had added “or winter”, you would have been dead on. High here was 37* at midnight. Saw one temp for a brief second hit 34*. The rest of the day has been at or below freezing with a wind in the mid and upper teens and gusts from the upper teens to 29 mph. Again, this equals anything I’ve seen this entire winter. That being said, there’s no reason not to believe we might see a historic event take place. Of course, now’s the best and only time for this to happen, not after a two week warm-up.
Kevin, comment 125. Great comment!! That is why I put absolutely no faith in those CPC monthly forecast maps, and even less so for the 3-month maps. I am sure that quite a few of them are accurate, but when they are wrong, they can be HORRIBLY wrong. Reminds me of what a certain bearded guy who moved to Roanoke from NE Arkansas said years ago: “Anything after 3 days is subject to change, and anything more than a week can change completely to the opposite.” But if the big movers of weather ….. the teleconnections and the MJO and other things …. are locked into a consistent pattern, then it is possible to look ahead about 2 weeks, I guess.
Think some snow will make it this far south Kevin or anyone…we are always on the bubble not just this year!
It is definitely frigid outside. The local schools cancelled all games due to cold. I don’t think I have ever seen them do it for low temps. However, baseball practice is still on and it’s gonna be cold!
We are watching it snow on Hogback Mountain in Rockbridge County. This is not showing on radar, though there are scattershot blips slightly south.
Roanoke high/low today: 37/28. That is a mean (yes, pun intended) temp of 32.5 Between January 3rd and 21st Roanoke’s normal mean temps are locked onto 36 degrees. So Roanoke was 3.5 degrees colder than the coldest normal mean temp of the year!! On March 21st!
Between January 1st and 20th, Blacksburg has its coldest normal mean temps, locked onto 31*. Blacksburg’s high/low today were 33/20. mean of a frigid 26.5. Thus, today was 4.5 degrees colder than Bburg’s coldest normal mean temp of the year!!
Is anybody in the mood for a very short joke about today’s weather?
Temperature report:
Blacksburg high of 30, set at 1 a.m., beats 3/21 record for lowest high of 31 set in 1996. It’s also tied for 2nd coldest astronomical spring high temperature with 4/7/1982. Record was 29 set on 3/31/1964.
Roanoke high of 37 was 2 degrees off daily coldest high of 35 set in 1914. High occurred at 12:13 a.m. Afternoon temperature topped out at 35.
18Z GFS still rolling in, but looks pretty big on snow for SW Va, with two waves front and back.
I plan to post new in next couple of hours focusing on weekend snow threat.
Snow flurries most of morning in Newport News. 36 deg. Daffodils are about finished blooming. Cherry trees in full bloom.
On March 21 weather history..
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weeklyreview/comment.html?entrynum=26
Kevin,
You mentioned that you don’t see this as SW Virginia’s last chance at a snowfall. Are there other possible moderate snows in long range models or are you simply referring to periods of upslope following cold fronts in April?
I’m sure most of you’ve seen this loop but if not check it out!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html
GFS 18z snowdepth 90hours
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032118&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=090
There may be another similar storm to this one around March 31-April 2 with blocking still in place.
AO update. Well, it went down AGAIN!! To about -5.6. Will probably stay the same for one more day, or possibly drop to -5.7 or -5.8. Then it should finally start to climb, although the positive change will be small for the next 4 days, and the AO will likely remain below MINUS 5!!! Then next week it will really start to move up. Incredible, just incredible. The graph of the observed AO levels is almost off the bottom of the graph.
According to both Robin Reed and I think Sean Sublette (not sure about SS, because his 7-day outlook is for Lynchburg, not Roanoke), Roanoke will once again have highs in the 30s for both Saturday and Sunday. Those days will be the 4th and 5th days of spring and the high temps will not even get close to the coldest normal highs (45*) of mid-January.
NWS is going 52 for Roanoke’s high on Saturday. The difference in 52 and 30s for a Saturday high could be very significant for Sunday morning snow. Could lose a couple hours accumulation if the higher figure verifies.
Doug, from what I saw that my friends posted on Facebook things didn’t go over to well. Put it this way, the Giles school superintendent was not the hero of the day. I’m pretty sure dad is still fuming after his altercation with the icy roads and guardrail! Thankful he was able to be upset though.
The GFS just shoved the snow up to norther WV and northern VA.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Cold day on Poor Mountain. Snow most of the day, and a lot of nasty wind. No real accumulation, but the ground was white a couple of times today.
Mike
Doug, I was fortunate to not have to venture out today except for, I’m sure you’ll be glad to hear, a trip outside to sweep and salt the steps for my mail carrier, so I haven’t heard the buzz about schools being open. I do know it wasn’t fit for man nor beast out there!
Rick: That clown map says it’s for the 12Z, which was a bit farther north. The 18Z hasn’t posted on wxcaster site yet, but Robert Gillespy posted one at comment 137 that is snowier all the way to Va-NC border. Not saying it’s right, but GFS has danced back a little south.
18Z GFS clown map HERE
Yep, the 18Z NAM and GFS are getting serious about snow here. I’m seeing some specialized charts which show 8-9″ falling. But these are based on the US models, while the Canadian and Euro have very little here. I said falling, because as Kevin pointed out, warmer temps affecting ground may sap some of the early snowfall … unless it’s hard enough. Anyway, the trend is a little more south, and with a colder atmosphere here. Plenty of time for it to still change either way!
The above map is for hour 96. If you look at hour 102 HERE you can see where the snow is already starting to melt in some places (at least that’s what I am assuming). I guess that’s because it’s a spring snow.