Still some snow possible in SW Va
There is no disputing that forecast guidance has moved more strongly in the direction of making this an I-64 and north snowfall on Wednesday, at least for the heaviest stuff. Some of the frequenters of the blog in the Lexington area up to Charlottesville may still be in line for about 6 inches, possibly more. Higher elevations toward Bath and Highland counties could go up to 10, under current thinking. Heaviest snow, possibly topping a foot, will likely
fall in higher elevations of Shenandoah National Park and in the mountains of northwest Virginia west of Interstate 81. Storm dynamics are driving the boat in terms of temperature and precipitation rate, but a little boost in elevation can help with the surface temperatures, too.
In the Roanoke and New River valleys, and even farther south and west, it’s still far from a foregone conclusion that we will have bare ground come Wednesday morning. There are really two different facets to watch for possible snow. The first is how quickly cold air can catch up to the original rain shield moving across the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will be developing ahead of a low-pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley. It may begin as a rain/sleet/snow mix, but is projected to go to mostly or all rain as milder air moves in aloft ahead of the low, and surface temperatures remain above freezing. Cold air in the mid and upper levels will begin advancing east overnight, and as it does so, will begin to change rain to snow from west to east and from higher elevations to lower ones. Honestly, I’m always a bit skeptical of these cold air catching rain shield setups for snow at least in the Roanoke Valley, because they seldom seem to work, but this will have a deepening low in North Carolina starting to pull cold air eastward. I think we could get 1-2 inches in the greater New River/Roanoke valleys from this if it pans out moderately well. The easiest way to get more snow than projected would be for it to simply be colder Tuesday night than expected and have snow for a much longer period of time. Locations northwest and northeast of Roanoke may have a better shot at this happening.
The second issue is how far southwest the snow shield spreads behind Wednesday’s deeper low that forms over North Carolina. This is the hardest issue to figure out. Even the northward North American Model has brought it into Southwest Virginia off and on during its last several runs. The Euro and Canadian models have been downright robust with this snow shield in Southwest Virginia at times. Locations that can get in this “deformation zone” snow shield for several hours could add quite a few inches to their snow totals. It appears I-64 and north stays in most of the day. Some forecast models bring it down to the U.S. 460 corridor (Blacksburg-Roanoke-Bedford-Lynchburg), and a few have even touched Interstate 77 or the Virginia-North Carolina border. This may well turn into a “nowcasting” situation that won’t be able to be ascertained very well until the event is ongoing.
Throwing out some educated guesstimates: Roanoke, Blacksburg, 2-3 inches; Botetourt, northern Bedford County, 3-5 inches; areas to south of Roanoke, Blacksburg, 0-2 inches; Rockbridge, Bath counties, 4-8 inches, locally 10+ in higher elevations. This is very fluid, even more than a typical snow situation, and these numbers could all easily bust in either direction.
Probability wise for Roanoke/Blacksburg: 1+ inch, 70 percent; 2+ inches, 55 percent; 4+ inches, 45 percent; 6+ inches, 35 percent; 8+ inches, 25 percent; 12+ inches, 15 percent. I see Roanoke/Blacksburg on the same plane with this event, as Blacksburg has elevation and westward advantage to get snow earlier in the initial precipitation shield, and Roanoke has a bit of a northeastward advantage to have a better chance of getting in the wraparound snow for a little longer.
Of course, it’s still possible that the vort digs farther south than expected, the low develops farther south and the snow shield on Wednesday is farther south. (Or, of course, it could happen even farther north, and leave us with little or no snow.) Weather is played out in the atmosphere, not in forecast models. Whatever happens Wednesday, we may be in the 60s by the weekend. March is upon us.
March 4, 2013 - 7:13 PM
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fingers crossed for a good bedford snow. we really missed out so far this winter. come on southward shift!
Boo, hiss. Get me all excited about heavy snow, and then change it to 2 to 3 inches.
I bet on 6 inches early with my road salt order. I’m sticking with that. My doctor won’t be happy if I have to eat it. Where is that guy with the beacon and Bourbon. We can ride to the clinic together.
Debbie: You obviously haven’t been following along. The big amounts have never been more than a small possibility.
Well, shucks. I’m still holding on to the hope that I have that MAYBE just maybe we get a decent snow here in Roanoke. For me decent is a good 6+ inches, but if it doesn’t happen than oh well. I was truly thinking that this snow would be a good one. Didn’t know it was going to take so many turns.
So now that some of us are grasping at straws. Little changes like a slightly stronger low or slightly more southern track would put us back in the money so to speak? Maybe 4+. Or should I not hold my breath? What are we talking about couple degrees or more like 4-6?
By the crowd at Kroger in Salem today you’d think we were in for a massive blizzard!! I’m not counting on anything here. If we get it great, if not then I won’t be disappointed but I will say bring on spring. NWS has our forecast back snow/rain Tuesday night accumulating less than an inch and down to a 70% chance of snow on Wednesday with no accumulation mentioned. I’m so sick of sleet/rain/and wee bits of mushy snow that don’t accumulate to any degree. Bah!
Good read Kevin…im hoping for a south trend myself but we will see… thanks for all you do for the WJN!!!
I guess I never realized till a few years into the blog there were so many snow fans around here who need 6+ or 12+ events to be happy about snow. Not a judgment, just an observation.
This is from our son in Pittsburgh:
“We are only expecting 4-5
inches Tuesday night with rapid melting afterwards. NWS Pittsburgh was
late with the news, again. I used the HPC to come up with a snow total
estimate (4″) long before the local office would wager a statement.
Finally, at 2:30 PM today they issued an “Advisory” for up to 5″ of
snow. The local NPR station was still repeating the old forecast (from
lunchtime) during drive time this evening. No mention of significant
snow. I called the news room and asked them to pull up the advisory.
They are now reading the statement verbatim. This is what happens when
the local wx office waits too long. You alerted me to this storm 48
hours ago.”
Tina – I think with all of the milk, eggs and bread that has been bought that we all nedt to get together on Wednesday and have a French Toast Party and welcome Spring!
This afternoon was either the calm before the storm or else the beginning of Spring. Down to 30 now, no wind and low humidity.
The ones I remember are 18+ snows and the really bad ice storms. I don’t want to be bothered unless we get a foot.
Heartened by the fact that, come what may Wednesday, the days are getting longer and this weekend promises sunshine and warmth.
Safety Tim, Comment 3. HYSTERICAL COMMENT!!!! LOL!! Love it. But salt on bacon?!!? YUCK!!!
Comments like yours are what make this blog so fabulous.
, you can start to catch up on your sleep …..
Note to Kevin. Hang in there, pal. 99% of us love and admire what you do. 60 hours from now this storm will be gonzo, whatever happens. Assuming that you survive it
Kevin when do you think you will be able to start watching real time radars and comparing them to the model forecast as to how the storm is forming and tracking?
Tina its also 1st of the month when the retirement checks come out. Add snow to the forecast and pow
. No milk bread or pop tarts for late comers.
I like the forcast for the weekend..can’t wait for spring
Hardcore snow fan here, but I’m ready for the humidity to creep upwards a bit. 24% in the house right now and my sinuses are not amused, nor have they been for 6 weeks. Snow or get on with spring…tired of the back and forth.
Just looked at http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-saturn-east-midwest-west?pageno=2 on the weather channel & they still have Roanoke in the bubble for 6in + with localized 12in + , I guess anything is possible at this point and the weather in unpredictable so who knows what’s going to happen!
Tim: I would say one thing to watch tomorrow would be Chicago. If the heaviest snow goes south of the Windy City, it could mean more snow for the Star City.
Kevin (comment #9)- Probably the reason why is because of how rare a 6+ or 12+ event is around here. Everyone realized what a big snow was like with the 09-10 winter and wants one every season now. Problem is that kind of storm doesn’t happen but what, once every 10 years or so? Its the exception not the rule around here or at least in recent years it seems to be that way. Really based on how some winters have been just seeing snow on a regular basis regardless of the amount is an accomplishment I think. I can remember several winters where you get 1 snow event the entire winter and that’s it. Maybe see a flake or two on really cold days but nothing more. Even though the early part of winter started slow we’ve had some consistent chances this winter which is more than we can say for some past years.
Well, put me in the column of the disappointed. Since my expectations are almost down to nil, I guess I will get over the disappoinment and be pleasantly surprised by 3-4 in if that happens. I like winter and love snow, but I think I will also be okay when it hits almost 60* Saturday. Que sera, sera.
Long-term climatology for a 12+ event is about twice a decade for Roanoke and three times a decade for Blacksburg. For 6+ events, it goes up to once every 2 years. Usually they’re not evenly spaced, but get bunched.
Very technically, Roanoke hasn’t had a 6+ since 2010, since the Feb. 19 event last year came in at 5.5 (was 6-8 in most of the valley).
I would think the infrequency of such events would make smaller snows more appreciated. I grew up in a region (NE Arkansas) that averaged a 12-incher like once in 25 years and 6+ twice a decade. Snow fans there knew the 2- or 3-inch snow they got might be their only one of the season, so enjoy it.
Yes Kevin we want a big one because they are rare….but i will take what we can get…it wont be around long:)
The beautiful thing for snow lover’s around here, that some of us forget because we are so focused on our own backyards, is the wonderful Great Lakes enhanced upslope we get within a short 2 hour drive of Roanoke and/or Blacksburg. Heck, Whitetop has had almost 80″ of snow this winter, and it’s only 90 miles from the NRV! If you want to find the snow it’s not too hard to find.
Thanks Kevin, for all you do. We’re building a house and our contractor felt confident enough to pour our basement floor this morning after looking at the blog. I’m hoping to see a little snow on Wed. but will be very happy to get back on my bike this weekend. This afternoon was nice enough to give me spring fever!
So Kevin, with the northern trend all day what % do you acually put on the vort digging further south or the low developing further south or the percip. shield expanding further south……..5-10%???
At this point I’d be happy with 2-3″, something to cover the ground one more time before Spring time weather. But like you said, it can bust either way, after all Roanoke’s biggest snowfall this season was a surprise (“under-forecasted”) 4 1/2″ .
So the meteorologist says it will snow a lot, or a little, or not at all. I don’t see anyway that can’t be accurate. I’m pretty sure that forecast is accurate for any day of the year.
I was in California the last time Roanoke got more than a foot. I haven’t seen a true Big ‘Un since I was a little kid in Xenia, OH. And I only know about that one because I’ve seen pictures.
Is there any chance that all the rain tomorrow will change to snow? I know it is supposed to be in the 40s tomorrow but is there any slight chance that it could get cold enough for snow sooner than we expect & double Roanoke’s snow potential? Just curious on the idea.
The little forecast in the graphic at the top of the page mentions freezing rain. Haven’t heard that at all yet and didn’t think that was on the table. Is that just an error or is there a chance of ice?
Aaron, good comment in number 21. And of course KM’s reply was top notch. Using Roanoke official records, the Star city has received exactly ONE snowstorm of over 10 inches, December 18-19, 2009 during my 16 winters here. Not absolutely sure about the following, but I think the only other two snowstorms that dropped 9.0 inches or more were that same winter, one on last weekend in January 2010 and a second one the very next weekend. I realize that Blacksburg nearly always gets more than Roanoke, but still …. 9+ inches are very rare in both cities. Bburg has probably received 3 or 4 others, but during 16 winters?
There’s a decent chance the rain tomorrow will begin as snow/sleet mix, with very dry cold air aloft. It doesn’t appear likely it will stay that way as warmer air moves in aloft ahead of the low to the west, but if the atmosphere can remain cold enough cloud to ground tomorrow night, a surprising early round of snow would be possible. I’ve seen a similar surprise happen before, so I’m not eliminating it entirely.
For me a big snow is 8+ with hours of snowfall. I appreciate any snow we get, but I must admit I am in the Go Big or Go Spring this time. Admittedly I romanticize the snows of my youth, but I also didn’t track the weather the way I do now.
Cole: NWS forecast (which that graphic represents) now calls for rain/freezing rain mix in the morning, giving way to rain. So not a misprint, though most precip will be rain, at least that’s what’s expected.
Roanoke actually got 9.9 in one of the “lesser” 2009-10 snowfalls, Doug.
I am saying 6-10 inches that melts pretty quickly but there will be a Blizzard in 2 weeks. Setting up like 93. Just my uneducated guess.
For whatever reason, I’m far from convinced that we’ll receive 8+ inches here in C’ville. The local mets (both here and in nearby Richmond) generally have us pegged in the 8-12 range. DT naturally has us straddling a line between 8-12 and 12-17, though that’s no surprise to many of us as he seems to quite often over hype totals. But my gut and amateur eye tell me we’re looking at 5-7, with perhaps 8 inches with a bit of luck.
I typically ‘buy into’ the bigger predictions, but this time around again I’m highly skeptical. Maybe all these so-called busts over the past few years have something to do with it, but I’m mostly attributing it to the more northerly track and the lower ratios of 6 or 8 to 1.
Just figured I would throw this out there. NAM has the low about 25 miles south at 2100. That makes the 4th run in a rown trending south
Hanging in there 
Kevin what is your thoughts on the new NAM? Is the snow totals up or down this run for SW VA?
NAM has the lower slower, about 25 miles behind previous runs at 9Z on the 6th. Also looks to be a bit more south. One thing thats different is how the low gets to the coast, it takes more of a dip south before coming up, instead of just straight to the coast.Also much more amped, throwing a lot more precip SW.
New NAM is running. Shows the vort digging way down to I-40 in NC.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.gif
25F here on the river still falling.
The NAM is clocking Roanoke with snow 33 hours out.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
New NAM looks like it should be a little snowier for SW Va, but accumulation map only shows 1-2 inches Roanoke and New River area.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE048.gif
Hate how it breaks right through our area. Here’s the next map north:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE048.gif
We are still under a Winter Storm Watch here in Dublin. Do you think they’ll back off of that Watch anytime soon?
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ013&warncounty=VAC155&firewxzone=VAZ013&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
I`m calling it a night.Temp at 29 now. Will check back early in the morning.Tommorow is going to be fun when this starts.Keep the faith snow lovers.
Something is funny with that clown map. I’m thinking the NAM is warm at the surface.
DT’s first call map (posted about 6:30) has Roanoke still in a 4-8″range with the northern county border on the 8-12″ line. More hype from the captain of chaos or just too legit to quit? He does put himself out there and the comments on his FB page can get brutal.
Actually Brandon — that 33 hour map you posted shows precip in the last 6 hours, and most of it occurs before that fast-moving blue 0C line pushes through. I thought the same thing you did at first.
Always good on NAM to look at Sim Radar to see the actual snapshot of precip at the time of the 850 map.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif
I expect the watches will give way to either warnings or winter weather advisories on Tuesday.
Thanks for pointing that out. It’s another swing and a miss.
Taking a look at the QPF output, it would appear we’re in for a good soaking rain. Still showing 1.25-1.75″.
I guess I’m ever the optimist b/c I refuse to give up on getting snow until after we don’t get it lol. I’m still feeling 8-10 inches
is in order for this storm.
Here’s a total QPF map.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p60.gif
If only this were mostly snow.
I know I should wait till Wed to repost this…
but this is my entry from Feb 28 at 6:20 pm..
joe | February 28, 2013 at 6:20 pm
Dear FOF-s
(friends of flakes)
Tue 5th is the day to watch now..
System coming in from mid-upper Mississippi
Valley..Southern Ill – Western Tenn could
bring a bit of snow..
Right now Ga-Sc look to be central to
highest moisture potentials on the models..
will have to watch to see where and whenits northward bend
starts to happen…could be 3 or 4 inches in western Carolina.
…
Right now the heaviest snow in Chicago is fcst tomorrow after noon…
the heaviest part of the track is certainly north of St Louis…
Madison Wisc is fcst to be at 1/2 mi and snow most of morning tomorrow….Itll be quite interesting to watch…
Routing aircraft tonight away from mountain wave turbulence that
has been out there all afternoon east of Denver and the Rockies.
You say tomato, I say salt & bourbon? Hopefully that comes after the bacon & French toast. And if there should be any snow in the mix, a beacon may well be in order (especially after the bourbon)
. . . you know what I’m happy about??. . . the fact that BOTH reservoirs in the Roanoke Valley are FULL!! . . . thanks to the precip of ALL types that we have received this winter. . . That’s a good reason to be happy about ANYTHING that falls from the sky tomorrow night forward. . .
Well, DT has us in his 12-17″ area and the Capital Weather Gang has us in there 8-15″ area. So probably a good shot at a foot would be my best guess. What do you think we are in store for up here Kevin?
Also Blacksburg MIke, just drive to Bluefield and its a differnt world! I have seen Bluefield with a foot and half hour away in Giles we would have nothing.
I just looked at TWC and Weather Underground to get a ballpark idea of what temps will be doing here in the Roanoke area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Got a shock. They are mild! Rain starts about 9 or 10 am, probably. 10:00 temp will be 40 (TWC) or 43 (WU). Huge difference in forecasts at 1pm. TWC: 46, and WU is at 39! 4 pm: TWC 48, and WU 37! 7pm: TWC still 46, WU up a bit to 39. 10pm: TWC is at 44, WU bounces all the way back to 45 (??).
Kevin your # 50 map is still only talking about needing a 50 mileor so shift to the south and it would be game on, right?
How late you staying on Kevin? and NWS still has Montgomery County 3-7. Expecting lower end for us, but lets say GFS and Euro go with the NAM? and we start another trend maybe higher end?
Just watched both Robin Reed (Of “7″) on MY19, and Kristina Montuori (of “10″) on Fox 21/27. Big difference in the snowfall outlooks for the Roanoke valley and even including Floyd County. Robin: 1 to 3, but verbally he mentioned 4 inches. Kristina: 3 to 6 inches. Have at them, bloggers.
NWS just “upgraded” the Harrisonburg area to a Winter Storm Warning…8-12″ with gusty winds…
Love how the weather channel said nothing last night when the big snow was headed our way, but now that I95 is on the cusp…….PANIC!!
Also I will try to breath south all day tomorrow amd hope for the butterfly effect.
Just another rainstorm for us pretty much.
NWS forecast is in agreement with Robin, although it may be a case of vice-versa. Rain tomorrow, “New Snow accumulation of less than half an inch” for tomorrow night. WED: Snow before 4 PM, then a chance of rain and snow. High 37 and windy. “New precipitation amounts between a tenth and a quarter inch possible.” But no mention of possible accumulation of snow. Too many hours in advance, Kevin, for the NWS to not make any mention of snowfall levels?
Superb comment 58, provolone. You and I both are ecstatic about the reservoir situations. Sure were not like that two months ago.
New GFS running now. Definitely keeps us in the snow longer than the NAM.
i feel dumb but when did the low start going right through virginia
00z NAM is all rain up until around 30/31 hrs. Very close to snow at 30 (850mb still JUST above freezing, but eventually goes over at 31.
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/690/7913eca66b5041d8ba4d636.png
I’m definitely NOT waiting up for the Euro tonight. Don’t expect it to change much, and we’re in short-term model and almost now-casting stage now.
Is it me or did the Gfs trend slightly south, the vort seem to dig more and the precip shield around us seems a bit more robust.
Kevin, do you have any idea what time your first update will be in the morning?
It will be interesting to see if the Storm warnings start working their way southward over night. The storm warnings are just a little over 50 miles up 81 from the North Roanoke County & Botetourt County lines.
I want to say up front that I am a SNOW LOVER. In the discussion that a lot of people need deeper snows to be happy with the event let me offer an opinion based on my feelings about it. Kevin I think there is a different feeling between a lighter, dry snow with follow-up temps in the teens or low twenties and a wet, sloppy snow in the thirties with 30s and 40s follow-up temps. The dry snow with really cold follow-up temps seem more “wintry” while the sloppy, warm, wet snows are just aggravating. A Winter with a bunch of 2″, 4″, 5″ snows that stay around is a fairly satisfying Winter for snow lovers while this junk like we have had this year in just a mess and is not satisfying for snow lovers at all. As for me, if all we could get this week is a sloppy wet 4 inch snow I would just as soon the storm miss us and hurry up Spring.
GFS was an improvement for snow lovers. But Kevin is right. We’re in the nowcastiing stage.
The GFS has almost 2.00″ of QPF in our area.
Don’t let your guard down guys. Seriously.
A little bit hard to see on here … but the GFS has a tight snowfall gradient of 1-3 inches near Roanoke. Botetourt County goes from about 3 inches at the southern edge to near 10 at the north border.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth054.gif
To add on to my previous comment, looking at more of the new gfs model run, the vort digs more and is more south, however the precip duration is shortened with precip missing us just to the east. We’ll see though.
Just saw Sean Sublette give viewers a look at his (WSET-13′s) snow map. His map is in between Robin’s and Kristina’s (See my comment 63 above if you are wondering what I am talking about). Roanoke and everywhere south and west (including Franklin County) is in his 2 to 4 range. Botetourt and Bedford (I think I can hear the hoots and hollers of mini-celebration …) and Lynchburg: 3 to 6. I think he had the I-64 and north crowd at 6+, but did not have time to focus on that.
I hope to have something new up no later than 8 a.m. on Tuesday. Probably will be short — I like to keep things short as we move into storm mode.
But don’t wait on me to check on the status of winter weather advisories.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
both the GFS and NAM were about 25 to 50 miles south through kentucky but ended up at the same location once across NC, we also noticed yesterday the GFS was off with the placement. Could this trend continue ? Also hearing mention of this storm creating it’s own cooling bringing the 850 line through faster. Could someone with more experience help me here??? bumbed up a notch 26F down on the river now
Thanks very much for the raleighwx GFS snowfall map, KM. I wish you had time to answer questions. Can all those purples and bright colors in southern Canada really mean heavy snow??
Doug: This is actually an accumulated snow cover map NOT a snowfall map. It just so happens that all of this is fresh snow on Virginia. The colors in Canada are snow that is already on the ground, for the most part.
This will be 90% rain with a little snow to end with nothing more. Another let down bring on spring.
Jan 17 was majority rain even in the places that got deep snow. It rained 3 hours before 3-5 inches of snow in Roanoke on Feb. 6-7. Rain to snow has been the theme of this winter.
I think a moderate snow for NRV. It’s going to get cold long enough for some good accumulation. Kevin you are absolutely spot on mentioning Jan 17 and Feb 6-7.
Just watched Sean and Robin, full forecasts. First, they have a HUGE difference in tomorrow’s forecast highs for ROA. 7 is at 48! “13″ is at 42. Based on what happened last Friday, I am leaning toward Sean and “13″ being more accurate. Sean emphasized over and over again what others have already mentioned here, especially Kevin. Could be big swings in snowfalls within the same county, but the one constant (unless there is a huge elevation factor at play) is that the northern end of the counties will be getting the higher snow totals. And both mentioned that a movement of 50 miles in the low and vort, etc could make a big diff in snowfall amounts for a particular location. But don’t forget, snow lovers, that door can swing the “wrong” way as well as the “right” way.
GO HOME AND GET SOME DEEP SLEEP, WEATHER WIZARD.
I am home this time, Doug!
There could be a cruel heavy snow/no snow line across some part of our region on Wednesday. Snow fan ecstasy on one side, snow fan frustration on the other.
If this storm goes south. DT is going to have a huge ego for the rest of the year!
What side you think north Roanoke will be on? Scared we arnt going to get anything here
It could be really darn close if GFS is right. Your location is nudging 3 inches on that model tonight, Dallas, but go up 20 miles and it’s 6.
North is best across the board. Your side of the county has a little better shot at being in heavy snow than my side.
NAM doesn’t show as sharp a divide near us, but dribbles lighter snow southwestward from heavy snow area.
Ill try to give updates from my spot in roanoke during this storm if I don’t forget
Hope lots of folks do — including those scattered north all the way up to DC area. Could be very interesting.
Sounds like it could be interesting and I want a big snow but I’d be happy with a couple inches and then get to spring and bass fishing
I’m signing off for tonight. I like it better moving toward actual weather rather than all this model speculation.
I think the key to know exactly what’s going to happen before the storm gets into the heart of VA is around 3-4pm Tuesday when the low begins its descent southeastward. It’ll be interesting to see what the vort infact does in real time contrary to the models.
Oh, sad face. I wanted great gobs of snow, as always, but it’s March and anything will do. I live in Roanoke but commute to Lynchburg for work, and the local media are saying they’ll get more than we will in SWVA–thoughts, anyone?
Kevin, I’m closer to Roanoke a bit than Bburg is. You thinking my eastern Montgomery County location is too far south for any appreciable snow (I would at least like to see 2-4 inches!)
I’m disappointed to say the least. This blog has been the one constant that has been great and also doesn’t create hype. I hate to say it but DT I think overdid this time…he is going to have A LOT of explaining to do if he’s wrong…looks like he may be after all. But Kevin, you have done a marvelous job here in giving expectations but not creating hype! You deserve multiple awards for the job you do. It truly is commendable!
Now I’m starting to think the 2009-2010 winter was more of a curse than a blessing after all. What Kevin said earlier struck a bell for me…before December 18, 2009, I would generally get very excited for 2-4 inches of snow or 4-6 and 6-10 would be amazing. Now, I think 2-4 is pathetic and 4-6 is ok. This is a problem. 2009-2010 winter got me spoiled and I think multiple other snow lovers too. It seriously screwed up our expectations and has now disillusioned us! Setting expectations lower again is tougher than it seems.
I gauge successful snowfalls if the grass is covered!
Stephanie and comment 57…TOO FUNNY! Quick on the draw!
DougF – how is the Snow Prediction Cat, KittyGirl? What does she say??
kevin per your #33 comment starting out as sleet or mix up at 3:30 here at cburg mtn. for drive to work in pulaski and have a rain ,snow mix have to watch the road for slick spots, everyone drive careful going to work this morning.
I`m up early checking out all the sites.Its 30 here this morning dropped to 27 in the early morning.This is gonna be a real interesting 2 days on here.Will keep updating once the storm starts.Still have us under a winter storm watch for Northern Fauquier.Calling for 8-16 but gotta see it to believe it!Have a great day everyone.
I just knew it, All the snow coming thru Roanoke, everybody all excited, going to have a good snow, wont stay around long but thats o.k. Wake up this morning Channel 7 says maybe 1-3″ Channel 10 says 3-6″ why is TV stations only miles apart sooooo different in forecasts? Who are you suppose to believe? I think they just say what people want to hear whether it be snow lovers or snow haters just to get people to listen to their channel. I get sooo confused dont know who to believe. I know just wait and see, dont get your hopes up. It is what it is, when it is. Another let down, no snow to speak of. Woo-Hoo, here comes our normal dustings after being forecast 3-6 or at one time 5-8. Ha, Ha,
You may have been home but you stayed awake too long, KM. :>) :>) 35.5* cloudy degrees now.
You mentioned for us to be on the lookout for snow south of Chicago, Kevin. It is happening. Not only snowing about 75-100 miles SSW of Chicago right now, but also snowing on a north-south line in NE Missouri, extending fairly close to Saint Louis.
On the other hand, Channel 13 reduced the top end amounts by an inch for ROA and points SW from 2 to 4, to 2 to 3. Also did the same thing for the swath that included Botetourt and Lynchburg from 3 to 6 to 3 to 5.
One other note: WDBJ7 made a 2-degree reduction in its forecast high for ROA, from 48 to 46. Have a great, safe day everyone.
Hi Kevin. Just wondering if we are going to get any snow out of this. I live in Marion Va. 24354 Thanks
NWS has Greene for storm total of 10-14″. Winter storm warning up also. Will keep in touch with what’s going on up here. Just across the mountain weather service is saying 14-18″. Hope this doesn’t BUST!!
At the base of Poor Mountain…elevation 3100 feet, we have sleet coming down at a pretty good rate..