Unusually cold late March period ahead
The rain is past and a cold front will sweep out the chilly, damp, patchy-icy wedge overnight. Tuesday may seem kinda mild after Monday’s dank chill, despite the breeziness behind the front, as highs climb into the 50s with sunshine. Cold air gets reinforced by a cold front and clipper-like disturbance late Wednesday and Thursday, with some rain and snow showers also possible.
Somewhere along the way during our record warm March a year ago, when the air-conditioning units were being replaced at the Roanoke Times office with temperatures topping 80 and no ability to open the windows, I half-jokingly suggested that the next March would probably be unseasonably cold with chances of snow. Well …
We are on the cusp of an unusual period of cold late March weather that will at least add to the quirkiness of the 2012-13 winter (and early spring) and could become quite memorable or even historic, depending on just how cold it gets and whether we get a significant early spring snow. Today’s initiation of the European forecast model (12Z) shows some regions of green near Greenland and the North Pole, signifying unusually high atmospheric heights. These regions of high pressure are blocking the jet stream, forcing far a far south dip that will be developing, allowing Arctic air to sink all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Arctic air in late March doesn’t produce the same effect as it would in January. There may not be any days of widespread below-freezing highs, but many days of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s will run 15+ degrees below normal in much of Southwest Virginia. The Climate Prediction Center rarely hauls out the dark blue crayons for a 90 percent chance of below-normal temperatures, as it does in the 6-10-day period. With this blocking pattern in place, the cold air won’t be going anywhere fast, and will be reinforced a few times. A clear night with calm winds and snow cover could produce record lows in this setup. But will there be snow?
The blocking pattern also increases the chance that atmospheric energy will dive southeastward and trigger a large precipitation-making low-pressure system somewhere in the South and/or East. Forecast models are struggling a bit to determine which piece of energy at exactly what time may do this, and are varying dramatically on where precisely it could happen (Ohio to Florida!) and how the storm will evolve. But the generally developing idea is that this weekend or early next week could produce a large low somewhere in the South or East capable of spreading moisture into the unusually cold air. Things usually have to be a little extreme to produce a widespread snow event at our latitude in late March. It appears this pattern is extreme enough to support such a development … IF the pieces come into line. Hopefully there will be a little more clarity on what kind of system (or systems plural), and where and when it may develop, in a couple of days.
My general expectation is that our region probably will see some accumulating snow, maybe more than once, over the next 7-10 days. There is potential for a widespread winter storm affecting a large region including our area, but too much remains uncertain for me to hop on that train just yet.
March 18, 2013 - 10:10 PM
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Rick, pay no attention to what the Crazy Old Letter Carrier said in comment 26 on the previous thread. Someone came along at 10:27 PM and set him straight.
Remember back in December when all the high profile weather geeks stated that winter would start later than normal this year. Not sure if they meant mid-late March though.
ya- Bring on the snow and cold. Just 2 bad we did not have this last month. Maybe next year.
Woohoo…after several early springs this slow starter seems like a blessing
There certainly won’t be any strawberry-picking in April this year.
And I am willing to bet a large amount of money that there will be no late frosts after the fruit trees finally blossom …… which might be July the way things are (NOT!!!) progressing.
Temp on the icon at right still has RRA at 34* at 11:16 PM. The hourly TWC forecast that I mentioned after 5 PM laid an egg the size of an emu’s. They predicted that ROA would be 40* by now.
I really don’t mind the late start to spring, except for the fact that golf is OOTQ right now. But I will be ticked if we have the usual and normal hot summer to go along with this situation.
Leo Hirsbrunner on WDBJ this morning just said we could be looking at a coastal snow storm for Sunday/Monday. Folks, this is no longer weather geek fantasy talk……..this is happening!
STILL 33.5* here!! Someone here last night said that these wedges can be stubborn. I see that WDBJ7 and Wunderground have amended today’s forecast high for ROA down to 54 / 55.
OK, the warm-up is definitely under way now. Wind must be picking up. My temp has suddenly climbed to 37.0*. Warmest that I have seen since around 11:59 PM on Sunday.
I love it!
35 this morning, cloudy, no fog and some of the tops of the trees still have ice in them. But now that the wind is gusting out of the north/northwest, I am sure the ice will fall. Watch out below.
From 5 AM to 6:30 AM, the temps shot up from 31.8* to 46.8* with 28.9 MPH gusts.
Dave Tolleris has a pretty interesting slide show (about 50 slides of PowerPoint) on his website, concerning his spring forecast. Just bop over to Kevin’s column of links here to the right.
Not sure I want any more snow. But what the heck, if we get it I’ll probably get excited.
And the quirky winter rolls on, apparently. On the bright side, we did pick up 0.88″ of rain.
The overnight model runs are all showing a Miller B scenario for the weekend “big” storm, with a low coming up into the Ohio Valley and a coastal low forming off the Carolina coast. This is certainly consistent with the overall pattern this winter. The trend seems to be toward less cold air in Virginia as well.
Mike: Yes, there will almost certainly be a coastal storm at some point. But there was a coastal storm two weeks ago, and you got half an inch out of it. Depends on how and where things come together. I think there may be at least as good a chance of getting heavy snow out of overrunning precipitation preceding the developing coastal low as there is from the coastal itself.
There’s a decent chance that something pretty big and wintry happens here this weekend. But still lots of screws that can come loose.
The 0Z Euro jumps a big low from western Kentucky to the South Carolina coast while keeping cold air (the blue colors) over us.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
what kinda snow would that be on the Euro Kevin?
I know next weekend is a ways off and a couple of model runs doesn’t mean much this far out. Didn’t the 0Z GFS warm up Va. a little bit next weekend and lessen the snow potential?
The 0Z GFS is so far off the grid I didn’t even bother posting it, taking the main low into Iowa, stalling and weakening it.
WPC, on the other hand, basing their reasoning on ensembles more than the main operational runs of the models, is favoring more of a Miller A scenario with a low moving NE from the Florida Panhandle.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg
Hefty precip with that, near an inch liquid.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
Flutie: I don’t have personal access to Euro snow maps, but just eyeballing it looks like it would be a pretty heavy amount, with overrunning moisture followed by a coastal. See if I can find something posted secondhand.
The odd thing about the weekend setup is that even though it’s nearly 3 weeks later on the calendar in March, the pattern is on the whole colder than it was March 5-6. That’s why it might be case that an energy transfer from an inland low to a coastal could still lead to snow on the front end and not just on the back end, like happened March 6, missing most of SW Va south and west of Roanoke. But if the trends continue where the inland low is farther north and then the coastal low is also farther north, the chance of snow would shift northward. That has seemed to be a seasonal trend. We’ll see if the extreme blocking to the north rearranges the furniture on that.
So with the 1 inch liquid showing, can we expect a 10:1 ratio? Or higher?
6 to 8:1 would be good guess for late March — but it could be better if there is a well-developed storm with colder air aloft.
Not sure all of this would be snow in WPC depiction.
Don’t usually link Weather Channel stuff here … but they have an NCAA bracket for America’s toughest weather city. And Roanoke is matched in the first round with Syracuse, NY.
http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/march-madness/toughest-weather-city-northeast-1-20130314
I can think of some logical reasons I would rate Syracuse higher — but I let regional pride take over and voted Roanoke anyway.
I followed the weather channel link and voted for Roanoke as well. it looks like our regional pride won’t sway the vote too much- Roanoke had a measly 95 votes compared to over 1000 for Syracuse!
Weather Journal Nation could change that! There’s more than 1,000 people on here most days.
Some of the cities I think of as really tough weather cities aren’t even on the bracket.
Kevin, you’re such a homer. Roanoke has such easy weather overall. Fun to see us included.
Without Amarillo, Texas, on the bracket, this looks like the NIT to me.
I voted! Of course, we are still WAY behind LOL.
6 to 8:1 is still a real decent snowfall for late March.
12Z GFS still liking its western Ohio Valley storm track. Wouldn’t be much snow (or even rain) at all here if that track verified. Seems askew with the blocking pattern.
Time to take this off twitter! As a UVA fan that NIT dig hurts a bit
I however see that now your civic pride as take over a bit also. Sure Roanoke in no way should beat Syracuse, but much like when my team is in the NCAAs I will take them all the way through regardless.
I do still contend it would be fun to debate the biggest weather events in area history. Maybe set a rule like only events after XXXx year. Off the top of my head I see: Flood of ’85, Blizzard ’93, Snow ’96, Winter 09-10, Derecho, Hugo, April ’11 Tornadoes, early ’00 drought, Feb ’07 Wind Event, and Last Summers Heat. As you can see I’m clouded by big and recent so I’m missing some nuance there. Granted at the end of the day ’85 would be the biggest I think.
No dig at UVa intended, Keith … dig intended only at TWC!
Syracuse has easy summers. For me personally, a week of 95+ temps is tougher to get through than a whole winter of deep snow and extreme cold. How’s that for a spin?
My hometown of Edinburgh, and most of the east of Scotland, getting slammed today with several inches of snow, gale-force winds and blizzard conditions.
Very honestly, I see very few cities on the South or Midwest brackets that I could see any city on the Northeast bracket beating. Tornadoes/heat are tougher than snow/cold … and a lot of the Midwest places get all of those. Some of the South places that don’t get much cold or snow deal with hurricanes. The chance of having your house swept off its foundation just rates higher than having to shovel snow. Just my opinion.
How did Roanoke get to be the Northeast anyway?
Keith, we could have “regionals” for winter storms, tropical systems, severe weather and “other” for your local weather events bracket. Not sure I could organize the voting aspect of it, though.
So glad to see the sun!!! Looking for that darn button to turn off the wind machine.
I promise that when spring hits with spring-like temps and weather and pollen causes me to sneeze my head off and all the other allergy-related maladies I will NOT complain one bit. Tired of the cold and snow. I am looking forward to doing yardwork on a more consistent basis-not one day every few weeks.
Brian in Botetourt-1129ft
I agree with your strawberry comment, Kevin (comment 5). We’re hoping for the end of April here just south of Lynchburg. I saw a few blooms under the row covers yesterday on our earlier varieties. Last year we had 103 Growing degree days so far in March. This year we’re at a paltry 11!
Kevin…they even have Norfolk as “Northeast”. Once I saw that, I closed the page…if it’s not geographically accurate, it’s about as worthwhile as the whole of TWC.
But you’re right, any cities that can combine extreme weather of multiple seasons beats out any that only have one tough season to deal with. Sure, extreme cold and multiple feet of snow can be rough, but if you enjoy temperate weather spring to fall and winter is the only bad season, no way it’s worse than the plains states or upper midwest where summers can be brutally hot and/or humid, with nasty severe weather in the spring and fall, and also a wicked cold winter with bouts of blizzard conditions.
Kevin,
Wasn’t everyone bashing the GFS last time about going north when in fact the storm ended up being closer to the GFS track than other models were indicating. I know its only been a couple weeks but my memory is horrible. Thanks.
Ridgeway: Most analyses I’ve seen still rate the Euro better overall with the early March storm than the GFS. But however that may be, right now we’re talking about as much as 1,000 miles difference 5 days out, not 50-100 miles 2 days out. The GFS seems to be off on its own with an unlikely solution based on the pattern. The Euro has not really become that settled, however.
I voted for Roanoke, but in no way can it beat Cleveland with the muggy, hot summers , combined with the LOOOOOONG, cold grey winters. I used to live there and I forgot that the sun could shine Oct-April. LOL.
As far as what event is #1 isn’t relevant. It’s only what event sticks out in your mind as #1. And shouldn’t be confined to winter or any other season. And as far as how folks rank them would determine their vote. Each individual would have to vote according to the following: What economic impact did the event have on me? What impact did it have on my community? What hardships did it create for me, for my area? What was the loss of life? The voting will always be biased for ones own area. If you asked the folks in Rockbridge and Nelson countys, it would be Camille in “69″. Not many votes would be gathered in Roanoke for #1. That’s why a vote tally would be meaningless to me. An example from my eyes. It would be the flood of “85″ hands down. That event had a much greater impact on me personally than any other one before or since. I was involved in 1 rescue attempt and my son was involved in 2. One we were teamed up, but found the elderly person had gotten out. My son and a co-worker paddled out of the back of CMT Sporting Goods and crossed the RR tracks in a canoe and got a lady off the top of her pickup truck moments before it was swept away. The effects of the storm were apparent for a long time here. Being in the construction business, I was still repairing and rebuilding the damage over a year later. I have several events that I’ll never forget, but the #1 event to me and everybody else will always be like I’ve already stated. Personal impact and location they are/were from. Therefore any attempt on voting will always be skewed. I’d love to limit it to the top 3 or 5 events and read folks experiences about them, but not a voting event. I refuse to vote on the lets pretend weather site because it is totally irrelelevant.
Did anyone ever find any factual info to back up the comment a few days ago about the weather in march being a bit colder etc. etc. when easter comes in March,,,,I thought that was an interesting comment by one of the commenters on this blog and I for one had never heard of it before….fact, myth or old wives tale…..
If this winter storm materializes, are we thinking Saturday, Sunday, or Monday? I’m really hoping for nothing on Saturday!!
Jogger: Doug and Joe dug a little into that. Didnt appear to have much factual basis long term. Cant really think of a reason why it should be true@
Jamie: See, everyone defines “tough weather” differently. Syracuse is the snowiest 100,000+ metro area in the US. Half or more of the people who visit this board wouldnt call that tough, they’d call that heavenly.
If they are going to put us up against Syracuse, they could at least mention the derecho last year.
Another thing, WD, is that polls of that nature tend to be slanted toward recent events over older ones. Roanoke’s young economy was brought to a screeching halt by the December 1890 snowstorm — said to be 3 feet of heavy wet snow in historical events. Six years later 5 people were killed in a tornado at Salem. Those events, let alone a dozen or more worthy ones from the first half of the 20th century, wouldnt get many votes.
Jennifer: Any, all or none of those are possible.
Would think more Sunday-Monday if a big snow materializes, but everything up in the air at this point.
If anyone is interested in Kevin’s comments about the 1890 snowstorm check this article out:
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~class/am485_98/hall/bust.html
Third paragraph down mentions the heavy snow, but the whole article is really interesting.
What’d the 12z Euro say today Kevin…. is it trending towards the GFS?
Just from what I could see on a smartphone, 12z Euro looked like a failry large snow event for us, with inland low/overrunning moisture transferring to a coastal, while cold air remained firmly entrenched over us. Doesnt have a low lollygagging to Chicago like GFS.
KM, that’s the whole ball of yarn right there. How old one is means more time to see more events and recall more. Some folks won’t have a clue about going thru them since they were either too young to remember or not born. That’s why a vote is worthless without a time period included.
Would this be a Miller B event? We seem to barely miss these big snows with Miller B’s!
When I hear energy transfer to the coast, as a SW VA snow lover, I think “Uh oh…
Maybe the cold air will be so entrenched that we get initial snow from the overrunning setup?
Did somebody mention wind? Try 38.7 MPH gust and steady upper 20′s and 30′s all day. A tad breezy.
Temps leading up to our biggest snow storm of the season will be very cold. Ranging from 23 to no higher than 43 in Blacksburg. The ground will be dry, cold, and primed for optimum accumulation. Also, would expect the snow to liquid ratio to be much higher than would be expected for late March, maybe even at 10:1. If this thing forms in the Florida panhandle, that is about as perfect as it can get for SW VA. I think we will finally get a good ole fashioned White Easter for a change as well. About time.
From the ever so conservative NWS Blacksburg re potential Sunday/Monday event: just the fact that they’re mentioning it 5 days out (with a 60% chance of rain/snow on the point & click forecast) is encouraging –
…IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SUBJECT TO A DISJOINTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM…MILLER B…WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SUGGESTS PTYPES WILL BE MIXED WITH HODGE PODGE OF WEATHER…WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW…SLEET…AND RAIN. AMOUNTS WILL BE DICTATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH DISJOINTED FEATURES…BOTH THE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE SECONDARY LOW WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. WILL IRON OUT MORE SPECIFICS AS THE EVENT
GETS CLOSER IN TIME…BUT I THINK ONE THING IS GIVEN…WINTER AINT OVER JUST YET.
Nick: It would be a Miller B if transfers energy from inland to a coastal. It’s not written in stone that we miss these in all cases. A Tennessee Valley low tracking east transferring to a coastal low off South Carolina with cold air locked in place and abundant Gulf moisture overrunning from the initial low would likely do the trick for a sizeable snow in this blocked pattern.
No guarantee yet that this ends up being how it evolves. I still think a Miller A, forming near the Gulf and tracking up the East Coast, is possible.
Mark Sudduth @hurricanetrack
I hope that the groundhog has extra security in the coming days. Daggumb winter won’t relent!
And a picture…….. http://screencast.com/t/VMApVmbvRclx
41.8 MPH gust awhile ago. Highest for the day sofar.
Other John, congrats on your rainfall total. Nice going. The still-bearded letter carrier was an immense winner in this early week event. Somehow I ended up with 1.5 inches. All I need now is some sunshine and warm temps for quite a few days, and things will be gorgeous around here. Patience, DG, patience. Unless we somehow get too much rain, just about all of us are guaranteed to have a gorgeous spring whenever it REALLY ARRIVES. Which will not really be at 7:02 tomorrow morning, when the astronomers say it starts.
Speaking of signs of spring, Nancy says that we have two such signs in this household, that spring is at least well on the way. A. Our forsythia go into full bloom. And B. Gruglas shaves off his beard. Neither one is likely in the next 6 or 7 days, perhaps more like 10.
Speaking of the forsythia, I think I can hear them pleading out there: “HEY!! SOMEONE COME TOSS A LIGHT BLANKET ON US, WILL YA!! WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE HAVING LOTS OF DAYS OVER 60*, NOT JUST ONE OR TWO NOW AND THEN ….”
Jamie..
Cleveland /…agreed..as well anyone in the snow belt..
The towns around Buffalo have contests to see which mall
marking lot has the longest lasting snow mountain into the spring..
I like the thought…even eskimos have to have a chilly pride
about what they can devise.
As for Cleveland they probably get a little tired of hearing
about their river catching on fire.
Gavin, a true Scot!!! Comment 34. GREAT!!! I was lucky enough to visit the land of bagpipes in June 1997. Played golf at Saint Andrews, Carnoustie, and all 3 Gleneagles courses. Got to meet a lot of great folks over there. When I told strangers that I was from America, they said “Really? You look more Scottish than most of us.” Which is true. Had a really excellent round at Saint Andrews, in 25 mph left-to-right and against crosswinds for the final 7 holes.
Kevin, I STRONGLY disagree with your comment 35. Tornadoes and brutal heat can be very rough, but if one’s town never gets hit with a twister, then it is a mismatch in favor of the snow-and-cold folks. I have lived in both the Norhteast and here, and many times (like this year) up north winter can drag on and on and on and spring never seems to arrive, and even when it does, folks may have to put up with mud season for a few weeks. That is one phenomenon that hardly ever gets discussed here, mud season. wd, ever spent a few weeks in rural Maine in mid- or late April?? If the winter was very snowy and/or very early spring has been very wet, the mud can be awful.
wd, comment 43 ….. THAT was one of the best comments I have ever read here. Thanks very much.
I cannot vote in good conscience for a top weather event here in the Roanoke area, because I have not lived here all that long (15.5 years). Missed the huge winter of 1960 and another mammoth one also in the early 1960s. The Flood of 1985. The enormous snowstorms of 1993 and 1996. If placed on the rack and being drawn and quartered, I would agree with you, wd. Long-time residents here, such as the folks who I delivered mail to for 6-and-a-half years, pretty much agree that Nov. 1985 was the biggest weather event here.
Of the big weather events that I have seen, believe it or not the immense rains of JAN-FEB 1998 would be in the top 6 or 7 (which included the early FEB 1998 ice storm that devastated Bent Mountain and the woods near the Peaks of Otter). The FEB 2008 windstorm. And of course the derecho and following brutal heat wave. The entire winter of 2009-10 (I think that an event can include an entire season, not just a week or less). The blast furnace of August 2007. The basically 4-year drought that lasted from June 1998 through September 2002 (oops, that is a lot bigger timespan than just one season). The 17 inches of rain in my backyard during September 2004 ….. remnants of 4 !!!!! hurricanes came through Roanoke that month.
I just realized that in comment 35 you may have been speaking of states like the Dakotas and Minnesota, in which case I agree with you, Kevin. But if you meant states like Nebraska and especially Kansas, then I still disagree.
Just read all the way through your big comment, wd. It was great IMHO to see you be expansive. And I LOVED your reference to TWC as “the let’s pretend weather site.” BTW, and maybe somebody may have already mentioned this before, in which case I missed it, but the LPWS is now down to the letter U for winter storms. They should call it “UGH,” which is what the vast majority of us think of their little naming system.
Doug: We will have to agree to disagree. Snowstorms pale compared to tornado outbreaks for sheer terror. It’s more than just the town that gets hit. It’s the uncertainty of whether your neighborhood or house is about to be wiped away — especially if it’s night and you can’t see what’s going on. Besides the tornado, there is golfball to baseball sized hail and 70+ downburst winds to contend with. I drive students to look for tornadoes each May, but there is still a nagging feeling in my stomach and heart when we’re in the middle of an outbreak. Being amid a tornado outbreak 1 day out of 365 is far worse than having 20 blizzards, in my opinion.
And Kansas and Nebraska do have extreme blizzards, below zero temps, 100+ heat, tornadoes and some of the largest and most frequent hailstorms on the face of the Earth — on a regular yearly basis, not just in exceptional years.
OK, Polar view and Arctic Oscillation update time. The polar view —- by the way, Kevin, Thanks Very Much for including yesterday’s map as a link above in the 3rd paragraph of the main post — shows perhaps even MORE encouraging news for anyone still wanting snow here. Just about the entire island of Greenland is covered with green air, so a pretty strong block must be in place. In fact, it favors the western side of that huge island, and I think one of the experts a long time ago said that a west-based block is ideal. A long finger of cold air has pushed dark blue or blue-gray air all the way over Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, and nearly to Chicago. An arctic invasion? And there is a strong little vortex due east of Newfoundland 50-50 low. Talk about having the big three in place all at once?!! Only possible fly in the ointment (?) may be that there is no storm close to us now. This polar set-up needs to be like this over the weekend, at least that is my guess.
You have the advantage when it comes to the Midwest and Plains of having been there many times. But I have the advantage when it comes to spending many snowy, brutally cold winters in the Northeast, and during the coldest decades of the past 70 years, too. And you would like having all that snow if you had lived in New England because you are a winter weather lover, as are most of the people on this blog. But one thing that never gets mentioned here is that it is my experience in Roanoke that most adult folks DON’T like a lot of snow here. Sure, some moderate snow for Christmas or at other times if it doesn’t stick around long, no problem. But the winter of 2009-10? Most people were like me …. they hated it. Although very few of them despised it as much as I did, I must admit.
Kevin…amen to that…
I cant tell you how many times ive driven home at
night after 10pm…and working my shift as a line of thunderstorms
passes DFW..
with a pounding headache…and turning onto my street wondering
if a tree is on my house…luckily im single..
and even if it happened itd just be a house..
but let me tell you..that dread happens so very often.
Even the lightning here is something to behold…I often wonder]as well if ill be welcomed by flames as I go into my neighborhood.
As to mud..the only inconvenience is to wear boots for a few weeks..and you wont be cold…unless you fall.
The wind in Botetourt is gusting at 40 mph. I will say the wind made my son’s soccer game quite interesting. Love the debates and comments posted by all. This site is a great way to learn weather history. Thanks everyone!
Link to today’s Arctic Oscillation graphs, because there are now two things that I would like to point out: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
First of all, today’s level has dropped yet another!! full point, to about minus 4.1 or -4.2. The outlook graphs of last weekend have verified pretty completely. If one looks at the red spaghetti lines on the right side of the top graph, it is apparent that the AO will decrease even more for the next two or three days, to at least -5.5 and maybe even -6, which is the bottom edge of the graph! And the AO will linger in that -5 to -6 space until the weekend (it is awe-inspiring for me to be able to type that ….. -5 to -6 for about 5 or 6 days!!!! This is incredibly rare!!!).
But if you look even further right, beyond a week from now, the AO starts to climb quickly. The big question is what will it do in the middle/end of next week, which is very iffy in the land of model outlooks even if there were consensus, but there is disagreement. Two of the red graphs show a true “missile launch,” all the way to +3. If that happens, I will be shaving, throwing in the many towels I have collected, sticking forks, because the cold weather will quickly disappear. A few others show the AO going +, but only to about +1. I guess that would/might mean an overall move to roughly normal temps, which would be the low 60s for Roanoke by April 1st. But quite a few other red lines show the AO hitting a plateau still in negative territory. If that happens, then the cooler than normal weather will probably continue right into April. All of this assumes that nothing too dramatic happens with the NAO or PNA (or MJO?) that would have a big influence.
Doug: This is probably why we’re both in Roanoke. I don’t have to raise my family with the constant fear of having the house blown away — tornadoes happen here, but really strong ones are pretty rare, and outbreaks generally only occur as an extension of some much larger outbreak in the South. And you don’t have to shovel all that snow. We don’t get much here compared to New England. (I suppose I just undermined the entire Roanoke tough weather city spin job!)
As for heat vs. cold, that’s just a personal preference. I’m hot natured and have lower heat tolerance than cold tolerance. My heat tolerance has gotten worse since moving out here. Anything 90+ seems unbearable for me now. On the flip side, my wife gets on to me, but I’ll go outside to get the paper or take out the garbage in shorts when it’s in the 30s.
Heat and cold likely each produce a lot of deaths annually in this country that go unreported.
Joe: Those summers in which a cool afternoon is 95 have to wear on you out there at DFW, too.
I am wondering if we’re going to boomerang out of this late cold period into unseasonable warmth in April. Snow to 90s in a week? Why not.
You are right Kevin why not!!
Regarding the whole tornado/snow debate between Kevin and Doug, as someone who has spent time in both Oklahoma City and Florida, I’ll have to side with Kevin on this one…big time. Tornadoes are far more scary and unpredictable; snowstorms are a breeze in comparison (and, frankly, fun). There’s a reason why Oklahoma has (I believe) the highest home insurance rates in the country, while Virginia is among the lowest. I paid roughly 3 times more for home insurance in OKC than I do here…and my home here is bigger and more expensive.
Heat is another story as well; you can certainly dress for the cold, but not the heat.
Doppler Carol…the sun was nice wasn’t it? But I agree, that wind today was tough. I thought I was going to get picked up and carried away a few times!
Ok…I’ll get on the snow cheering wagon again, if it looks like we might have a decent chance. If it looks like ice,sleet, wintry mix stuff then I’m throwing in a BAH!!
If for whatever reason I had to move to and live in the Midwest where tornadoes were more common, I’d just live in a bunker home underground. Something sort of like a sod home, but more substantial, and more buried into the ground. Spending one summer in central Missouri, getting awoken by the tornado sirens at 7am, and knowing the only place we could go was a tiny closet under the stairs because it was a slab house…no thanks. Been there, done that, had all I want of it.
Doug we had about the same list for past events. Kevin that’s why I would suggest only events after 1970. Yeah we would miss events, but you have a nice 40 year window that the younger, like me in my 33 years, and transplants can relate to. Again it would be a personal view I was 6 during the flood of ’85 and we lived off Brambleton on a hill so it didn’t effect me as others. Now wind storm ’08 ripped most the shingles off my roof, and I had to deal with no power for days with a 8 month pregnant wife in the heat after the derecho. Doug just reminded me of August ’07 that was the first year I coached pee wee football.
See ths is a fun discussion and something to talk about while model watching.
Wow, we must be set on the same temperature scale Kevin! It can’t really get to cold for me, but when it hits 90+ and high humidity I wilt about like the greens at the golf course! LOL
This Possible Snow Storm Isn’t Being Talked About By Anyone Really? Usually Accuweather Has A Story For The Next Event Or Something?
We’re talking about it, Britten!
Dave Tolleris is talking about it, though that’s not much of a surprise.
NWS-Blacksburg is even starting to talk about it as a possibility.
I think Accuweather will probably get to it eventually.
Guess it will be Snow Dance on Saturday here at Virginia Tech. Wonder what fireworks look like in snow…that may be a first here. Are we talking warp snow or real snow on Saturday night?
Accuweather is already talking, but they are seeing a mix and rain for Virginia. I will attempt to link it. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-storm-potential-palm-sun/8440016
OK, look, I will agree that for sheer terror, New England has nothing that can compare with tornadoes and dozens and dozens of severe t-storms and hailstorms. But part of what can make a place awful to live with is constantly bad weather or conditions. The long run vs. the short run. Yes, brutal heat waves are simply awful, but I am the opposite of some of you. I would rather deal with a big heat wave (at least before I was a letter carrier), also, than day after day walking and driving on icy sidewalks and streets. Dangerous driving conditions on side roads week after week. Fingers, toes, and facial cheeks prone to getting very cold if a person is outside for many hours. Even frostbite is a possibility. And then there is the “joy” of shoveling late in winter when you already have snow piles 3 or 4 feet tall all around the driveway. And you have to bundle up like an Eskimo all the time. I need some support. Are any of you former northerners with me?
Accuweather article
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-storm-potential-palm-sun/8440016
HEY, THIS IS FUN!! wd and I were yakking about doing something like this a while back. I had suggested a Roanoke top 3, but that would not be fair to those of you in the NRV and other areas. But if we did one for the entire SW Virginia area, then localized events (maybe the flood of 1985 would fall in that category?) would be overlooked or not get all that many votes. And do we allow folks like me to vote, who was not here before October 1997? But I am enjoying this, even if I am losing the argument about which region has the worst weather.
Actually the mix and ran is Sunday into Sunday night
Here is Monday
By Monday, the zone of heavy snow will be impacting part of the central and southern Appalachians and could be aiming all the way to part of the mid-Atlantic coast and the I-95 corridor. Not only will the same challenges remain in the north-south orientation of the storm, but warm air from the Atlantic Ocean may play a role.
Actually Doug, your home state had this awful monster in 1953:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Worcester_tornado
http://www.worcesterma.gov/city-clerk/history/general/1953-worcester-tornado
Thankfully an exception, not the rule.
As Soon As I Post Boom From Accuweather Lol. Lol Know We Are Talking About Thats Why Im Here Lol. Personally As A Track Coach This WeatherHas Been A Total BuzZ Kill So Far! I Want Spring … Looks Like It Will Be A Mess Sunday
Started a new thread focusing on the Palm Sunday weekend storm. I don’t think I’m staying up for model runs tonight. Feel free to carry on the historic weather conversation too if you like. Will see you in the morning.
Matt Ferguson pushed Dave Tolleris or DT waaaaaayyyy to far
He said DT called for one to two feet for the whole state and he went on and on and on oh and then DT checked in on Facebook
Matt you you you you well you #$%&? Yeah matt you matt Ferguson
Just kiddin’ he didn’t say that it was short and sweet (not really sweet)
Wonder what ole matt is Doin’ right now laughin’ I guess oh well
I bet DT’s neck artery was pulsing when he read that
KM, thanks for the links!! I have only looked at the first one so far, but my word!! An F-4!!! In the Bay State?? 21st most deadly tornado in American history. In the description, Wikipedia says it touched down initially in a forest near the town of Petersham. My sister Donna lives in New Salem, only about 12 miles SW of Petersham. But they moved there in 1973, long after that event. Still, there must be something about that part of the state, because my sister’s town has had a couple of small twisters in the last 15 years or so.
“Two tornadoes over a period of 15 years?? That is hysterical, DG.” Everything is relative, weather fans.
Folks who have lived in Tornado Alley must be laughing their heads off about now. Is your head still attached, KM??
Just looked at the slide show on the 2nd link. For those of you under age 40, if you look at the slide show and perhaps think that the tornado couldn’t have been that bad, because the cars seemed to be in pretty good shape. Well, cars back then were dreadful, horrendous for gas mileage and pollution, but were absolutely stupendous for protection. They were like mini-tanks. Seriously. Bumpers were steel, for example. Folks would bump into a tree or wall while driving at low speed and simply bounce off, no structural damage. Don’t know about the roofs, but I bet they had reinforced steel in them.
A crazy teenager my sister’s Susie’s age was trying to impress the girls one winter day when the snow was drifted into big icy piles. Drove his old heap directly into a big drift at 15 mph, and then backed out, without a dent anywhere. Didn’t do him any good …. my sister and her girlfriends still thought he was crazy, which was NOT appealing (at least to them) back then.