Wednesday snow potential grows
Here is what can be said with some degree of confidence about Wednesday’s winter storm potential:
* It is likely that a large portion of the central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region, probably centered on Virginia, will be affected by a high-impact winter storm on Wednesday, possibly beginning as early as late Tuesday night especially in the higher elevations of western Virginia.
* Forecast model guidance suggests that 6-inch+ snowfall amounts will likely occur over a large portion of the area described above, and 12+ amounts, either widespread or localized, are quite possible. Exactly where the bigger amounts occur is uncertain.
* It is probable that much if not all of Southwest Virginia will see accumulating snowfall on Wednesday.
* The potential exists for a MAJOR to even HISTORIC winter storm to affect our region … but there is still a possibility that the heaviest snowfall will shift north of our region, or that the system will be too fast or too mild for the heaviest possible amounts to be realized.
* Power line and traffic disruptions are very likely to occur in and/or near our region on Wednesday.
The driving force in this winter storm threat is a pocket of upper-level energy called a “vort max,” (short for “vorticity maximum” and often just called a “vort”) its position Wednesday morning projected on the 12Z GFS at left. You can just call it an upper-level disturbance if you like. As this energy dives southeastward the eastward, it will help deepen a surface low-pressure system over North Carolina (probably) and the lift created by it will cause heavy precipitation and cooling temperatures north of it, especially 100-250 miles or so north of it. The vort’s track is highly important to snow chances. Generally speaking, snow chances in the Roanoke-Blacksburg area are maximized if the vort passes over or south of Interstate 40 in North Carolina. The center of the vort is approximated by the X at left, which on this model, has it diving into South Carolina. The 18Z GFS had it farther north in North Carolina at the same time — that model still showed heavy snow in Southwest Virginia, especially along and west of Interstate 81, but a track much farther north than it depicted would cut into the totals. Tracking where this vort dives will be critical in snow forecasts for Wednesday. What is likely to transpire is that cold rain will develop Tuesday night and Wednesday, perhaps changing to snow gradually from northwest to southeast and from higher elevations to lower ones through the night and early morning. Once this disturbance passes by to our south, a rapid change to snow will occur areawide — recall how fast it changed from rain to snow on Jan. 17. As the surface low deepens rapidly to our southeast, winds will pick up, and an large area of snow will wrap around the backside of the low across western Virginia. Forecast models vary on the speed of the low, but it does appear it will track fairly slowly east, so snow may continue for several hours once it gets going. For whatever locations get in the heaviest bands, that could mean 1-2-inch-per hour snowfall rates (probably some thundersnow, too, considering the strong dynamics of the system) that could pile up fast.
Remember that, as I type this, we are still likely more than 72 hours away from this event. I don’t expect huge changes in storm evolution or large jumps in the storm track from this point onward, but nudges north or south or slight changes in speed of the system could mean several inches difference up or down in the snow potential at your location. We’ll track the trends in guidance and see where this goes. It’s probably our last potential widespread winter storm to track in the 2012-13 snow season. If you’re a winter fan, try to enjoy it, as nerve-wracking as it may get. If you’re not, there is hope of spring just around the corner.
March 2, 2013 - 7:22 PM
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Woo-Hoo. That is all.
I would be all for this snow if it wasn’t for the powere outage potential!
Still glad the overall forecast is snow. It’s been a cold day and we are ready for a several inch snow. Will be watching the models for any changes later tonight.
Ha ha Travis…you took the words! =D
Is vort short for Voldemort
Is there any chance that this snow could be as bad as winter storm Nemo that slammed the north east? I personally am looking forward to a good snow because of the lack of snowfall we’ve gotten this season. I just hope that it holds up to its full potential and doesn’t disappoint anyone.
It is short for “vorticity maximum” — in fact, I probably should have abbreviated it as “vort max” not just “vort” at least on first reference.
(PS–Just added this wording in parentheses above)
Hope: I doubt anyone will get 30-40 inches in this storm, like with the extreme snowstorm that hit the Northeast last month.
These lows diving in from Canada are a mystery to me. This isn’t a low reforming off the coast of NC or coming through the southwest then pulling Gulf moisture. When this thing “blows up” like its shown to right now on the models, is it supposed to pull that much moisture from the Atlantic. I’m sure I’m showin’ my intelligence here, lol. But I was just curious if one of you, far smarter than I about weather, could enlighten me.
It is currently 22 and windy here. I just read Kevin’s blog and all I can say is – “Oh my gosh! Unbelievable! Mercy me!”
I’d say we could name this storm Voldemort, but Kevin would probably nix that idea. Ya think?
What would you say could be the absolute HIGHEST snow accumulations from this storm?
Thanks Kevin and the core bloggers for the details you all provide- in layman’s terms! Have been a follower here since Dec 2009 and like many-this is the go to place for any weather happenings ( tv is eye candy at best). I have a huge athletic event starting Thurs late afternoon in C’burg with folks from all across the state slated to attend. Any and all info posted here from, around and throughout the blogging footprint will be much appreciated as we consider the forecasts, models runs, etc to help shape our decisions for our event. Thanks in advance for all the trends, map links, web postings, and essentially real time updates that you all will be providing.
Carol, you just made me giggle! And Kevin, you better get some rest!!
Jason: This storm will be circulating back some Atlantic moisture and will tap the Gulf a little bit, not as robustly as some storm systems we see crossing from the Southwest. The southeast-diving disturbance blowing into a Southeast or Mid-Atlantic storm seems to be a late season phenomenon. The March 1 events in 1980 and as in 2009 were somewhat similar. Superstorm 1993 also had a southeast-diving disturbance that was part of its initiatin.
Hope: Anywhere below 4,000 feet in elevation, I would say 2 feet would be about the highest to consider reasonably possible. Heavy wet snow won’t maximize snow-liquid ratios — maybe only 6 or 8 inches per an inch of rain, not the normal 10 — and it also compacts on the ground once it falls
Thanks. I’m just amazed that thing can come across that much land and blow up again 4000 miles away from where it landed.
According to the weather channel today spring will not be here soon. March cold! Below average temps. April/May however above normal. Kevin what do you think? More cold days ahead in March?? Bring on the cold and snow guys!
Chris: Hard to say yet what March will average for the whole month, but it does appear very likely we head into a warming period next weekend and the following week. That’s what I was referring to around the corner — not necessarily the entire remainder of March.
Enough said! I will get gas in the cans for the generator. Will bust some more wood for the cookstove and get ready. If its all rain I can use the gas to mow the yard later in the spring and I can fire up the cookstove for a good ole pot of brown beans. Either way the wood and gas will not go to waste. I am not good at reading the models or making predictions but I do know its March and all possibilities exist. The part that bothers me most is rain changing to snow. Watch out power lines!!!
Tina I don’t want to call it the storm who must not be named seeing as I would like it to show up. Maybe we can call the snow haters club the snow eaters? Ok I’m done being a super Harry Potter nerd. Kevin my interest has been peeked good thing I’m taking a few days off next week.
Thank you for a great first thought on the storm KM. Just got done installing
my new weather station and out of 10 I would give it an 8. I only give it that because it does not measure snow just rain. Oh btw, it is an Ambient Weather WS-5300. I hope we get 12-18″+:-D.
Normally I would be waxing my snowblower and gauging it’s tires, getting it ready to clean all my neighbors driveways on Wednesday. But i took a fall from a ladder and am in a back brace for 3months…. Oh well, we wil be ready for next winter!!
Mr. Winter: Did I hear you got a weather station? You should get it set up to upload to Wunderground’s PWS (Personal Weather Station) database! Some of us here are already on there.
wonder how many blog comments Kevin will get between now and Thursday…. im guessing over 1000…. quick question KM…. do you have help approving all the comments when a storm hits or do you do it all?
So about this early spring stuff, as I was saying this shadow thing just isn’t all……
I can and do get help during periods of high volume.
Kevin,
Is a “southeast-diving disturbance blowing into the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic” coast referred to as having a “negative tilt”? Or is that something else? Still trying to learn, like many others in the WJN.
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From the above post: “If you’re a winter fan, try to enjoy it, as nerve-wracking as it may get.” Oh, I’m gonna enjoy this one! You can bet your sweet… Those iffy CAD events were killing me -that was nerve-wracking!!! Following this one is going to be fun (I hope). I believe you have said in the past Kevin that our snowiest winters have also been our rainiest. Please correct me if I’m wrong. Well we’ve had plenty of rain (enough to wipe out the drought deficit) and we’re still below our average snowfall for the winter (actually below average the last few years)….so statistically WE’RE DUE!! Those averages have to be made up sometime, why not Wednesday?
Flutie – If the over/under is 1000 then I’ll definitely take the over!
The negative tilt part refers to how the axis of the vort is angled. Usually the axis leans southwest to northeast (positive tilt) or pretty much straight north and south (neutral tilt). But, particularly in a blocked and amplified jet stream, the vort can swing around to having a northwest to southeast tilt — or negative tilt. This allows more lift and moisture as the upper winds can be southeast to northwest colliding with westerlies aloft.
This one projected to go negative tilt shortly after the model frame I posted, when it is basically neutral.
Here is a link with some graphics and wording describing negative tilt troughs a little better — geared more to severe weather than winter storms.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/
YUCK! I do not want a big snowstorm, especially with heavy wet snow, particularly during this coming week when I will won’t have a 4WD vehicle. I’m also concerned about two fundraiser events next weekend that will likely not do well if there is very significant snowfall. Hopefully the warmer temps after the storm will mitigate the effects afterward. I am worried that freezing rain on Tuesday and Tues night could make a potentially bad situation even worse.
Send anything over 4 inches to Jared to keep him off the roof!
Had a day-long date with my logsplitter to replenish the woodpile. I am noticing lots of fresh firewood piles that have been delivered around Floyd County in the last week. 23F and the upslope-spit-athon seems to have been going nonstop since Thursday. It got up to a balmy 33F today.
So the direction the vort is traveling has no baring on if it becomes negative ? It’s simply based on the angle of its axis. What determines that angle? Sorry for so many questions and if I’m boring those who are “jonesin” for more snow updates/thoughts.
Just read your link. Thanks!
The speed of it and the way it rides through the jet stream, primarily. It becomes so energetic, that moving around a trough, it just kind of bends back. Think of swinging in a swing and how you lean back as you gain forward momentum moving upward. Sorta the same.
Just waiting on Doug to get on here. I told his wife we are expecting a good size snow storm next week!
Trying to convince my hubby to at least think about putting the snow blade back on the tractor. I have a good feeling about this storm. I vote against naming it Voldemort too, he who must not be named likes to hide lol. Although, the suggestion for the snow eaters was hilarious! I, too, am a Harry Potter nerd.
Speaking of snow, radar shows the upslope machine has picked back up this evening.
Brayden in Pulaski, Are you seeing this? What do you think of this Big One on the way?
I think before everyone goes off the deep end….
A lot will depend on the temps from Tuesday, Tuesday Night and part of Wednesday. Right now it’s showing it will be warm enough for a cold rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night and part of Wednesday. We might not know until the actual day on how much we will end up with in terms of snow totals. A lot will also depend on elevation depended areas.
We need a good snow blow to wipe out some of our emerging creepy crawling bug infesting friends. Boo hiss on a wet snow and power outages.Thanks for the updates.
The temps issue is a divide between the Euro and GFS. The Euro, usually the warmer model, is colder more quickly and more of the precipitation falls as snow, whereas the GFS is warmer longer and more of the precipitation is rain.
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As usual, though, the temperature issue and the storm dynamics are intertwined. It is the storm dynamics that will drive the temperature, not the other way around. As the low strengthens and atmospheric lift increases, dynamic cooling will lower the freezing level. Dynamic cooling has been a major key in last year’s Feb. 19 and this year’s Jan. 17 snow events, as well as Roanoke’s localized 3-5-inch snow on Feb. 6-7.
C’burg Mtn.: I actually live in Blacksburg. Truthfully, I think it’s up in the air. Some models have us in the 18 inch range, others in the 4 inch range. Will post update soon on page.
We haven’t talked about the snow meter much
Still the same. Good record for Roanoke. Bad record for Blacksburg. New one out Sunday night. Highest numbers of season likely (never went above 6 yet).
Dopplar Carol- I was talking to my mom about the storm potential, they live little bit past your way in copper hill. If you are anything like her you may be stuck on the mountain a while … lol
Been a long, long time since I posted (howdy to all my old friends!) but I still follow the blog. to all snow lovers, keep doin’ your dances. I now work in landscaping full time and in winter I plow snow, so this storm smells like $$ to me…
This is linein’ up to be one of the easiest meters of the year Kev. Watch it bust Monday night.
Kevin, I just read your last comment on the previous thread at about 7:25pm, and thought it was delightful. Something about “sooner or later, weather makes a donkey out of us all.” LOL LOL!!! Great line. And so very true. Definitely true about me.
Sometimes on rare occasions I have noticed that the NWS and 7 (at least, maybe “everyone”) have forecasted one way with a given set of circumstances for Roanoke, and I think the weather will be different. It often involves the wedge or cold temps this time of year. And once in a while I have even put my divergent opinion on here. Even “cherry-picking” those rare circumstances and given my decent amount of experience with Roanoke weather, I have been wrong more often than not. Anyone who thinks they can do better than NWS and the TV stations on any kind of consistent basis, I would like to see them come forth here and put their specific forecasts on this blog. {Unfortunately they may be predicting for their back yard, not Roanoke or Blacksburg or Wytheville or one of the other communities whose records would probably be readily available}. Do forecasts get blown by the NWS and others? Of course. But it is one thing to identify them, which I have done, but quite another to do better, and I always realize that.
The next Euro run is ?????
Next Euro is about 1:30 a.m.
Next GFS rolls in 11ish.
NAM is in … 84 hours barely gets us to winter storm time, and it’s resolution is not good at that range. I don’t take it seriously until within 48 hours. Has the NC low and the vort digging into Alabama/Georgia, but not much of a precip field. Seems to have the building blocks of the storm, and I think it will fill in the precip field in later runs.
Yes, Nurse Snow, Nancy told me that she saw you briefly today, and made the mistake of telling you that “It isn’t going to snow.” HA!! At least I will be right one time when she will be wrong. Even I must admit that at least some snow is about as rock solid certain as it can be 3+ days in advance. And Shanon, what do you plan on doing on Wednesday with your kids? No school is practically assured, from the looks of it. I hope you plan to spend some of the time consoling your 9-year-old. At least you have a generator.
Kevin why is the HPC not showing much chance?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow
Here’s an excellent post by Sean Sublette from WSET:
http://seansublette.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/potential-march-6-snowstorm-update/
Wait, 2 storms merging? Is that what I’m missing? NC low and this vort thing comin’ down?
Michael H, Indian Valley John, wd, Doppler Carol, Kevin, (perhaps countless others): some or all of us including me may be loaded with snow and without AEP power come Wed. night or Thursday, but we will have first dibs on certain items here.
Pistol Pete: That map ends 0Z Wednesday, which is really 7 p.m. Tuesday. Not much snow chance here before then. You can see the results of the diving disturbance from Minnesota southeastward.
Jason: Not so much a merger as the upper level system helping fire the surface low. Models are a little vague on whether a weak surface low tracks southeastward and then intensifies, or if the weak surface low disintegrates and then re-forms out east in NC.
Todd and Flutie, I am with you guys about the 1000 comment amount between now and Thursday (Thursday 11:59pm, right?). In fact, I bet we go for 1300+. (1300 in ’13, get it?) However, if the expected snowfall totals drop below 6 inches, I drop my prediction. I’ll be wrong anyway, so what’s the diff ……?
Larry Cosgrove points out tonight that, very technically, this storm can be considered an Alberta clipper.
Yeah, thats what we see time after time… clippers… but this one coming farther south. Does that simple variation make that much difference? Bringin’ a bigger machine I guess. It’s interesting from where I’m sittin’. It’ll be fun watchin’ all this play out.
Been having snow showers here in Giles most of the day. Seems to have picked up more this evening. Headed back to Greene tomorrow, to hopefully prepare for this BIG UN!!
Doug, I think she will get over it quickly if she can get outside to play in the snow. Part of my plans tomorrow are going out to buy new sleds as the ones at home got busted during the last snow.
Hopefully more like a Alberta hatchet!
How far west and north are models showing snow? Indiania, Ohio, Mich, Kentucky?
Shanon: You’re going to put a jinx on the whole thing if you do that.
It comes across parts of Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky with the southeast-diving wave. The bigger storm then fires and it’s really only eastern Ky, WVa and Va, into northern NC.
Is it looking decent for my area Kevin we usually get the down end of snow?
Snowville – yes, like your mom, I am preparing to be stuck on the ridge for awhile. Most everything is ready just need to move firewood from the back forty up closer to the house. I am also going to make a big pot of chili and a pot of vegetable beef soup so if we lose power, we can heat them up on the wood stove.
A tip for the snow shovelers – you can spray “PAM” on your snow shovel to help the snow slip off of it more easily. Or you could wax it a little like a pair of skis.
On ECT (Early Chicken Time) so turning in so I can be up before the hawk nails another chicken in the morning. The early bird is supposed to get the worm not the chicken.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ022&warncounty=VAC770&firewxzone=VAZ022&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook
C’Burg Mtn.: Yes I am keeping a very close watch everyone is saying. Very excited. I would live to see 12+ here in Pulaski as long as my power doesn’t go out this time!!!
Way too early to be that specific, Kevin of Turkeycock.
link above is a early warning the storm for wednesday
C’Burge Mtn.: And I think that the Brayden that responded earlier from blacksburg may be another Brayden haha. But Pulaski Brayden is very excited for next weeks snow storm!
C’Burge Mtn. And I think that the Brayden that responded earlier from blacksburg may be another Brayden haha. But Pulaski Brayden is very excited for next weeks snow storm!
Here’s the new GFS at 87 hours:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194556
This would be moderate-heavy snow in our area.
Looking good.
Still snowing at 96 hours out. This doesn’t look to be another quick five hour hit.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194557
GFS total precip:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_105_precip_ptot.gif
If I’m not mistaken, most of this would be snow.
Actually, about half an inch of that would be rain, on Tuesday. Even flirts with freezing rain.
So that would still leave about 1.25 liquid as snow. Cutting a little out for melting and not-great snow liquid-ratios, I’m guessing 7-10 inches near Roanoke if that verified.
Time to ruin my two-prediction winning streak. Nearly all the TV channels and the NWS and Weather Underground (wunderground.com) are calling for ROA to reach at least 43* (Underground, the others are at 44) tomorrow. I don’t. TWC predicts 42. That is more like it. I will go with a ROA high of nothing above 41*. They are predicting a lot more sun for Sunday than the preceding two days. I bet the strong NW winds still keep a lid on temps.
Griggs as Donkey coming up in about 15 hours ……
Verbatim, looks like about 12″ of heavy wet snow for Roanoke and points north. Totals increase as you move north up 81.
For what it’s worth, jackpot bullseye has shifted south some.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth096.gif
So my hopes of getting on a plane out of Roanoke on Thursday morning is? [please say possible! Non-refundable cruise overhere....]
Brandon R…..shhhhh….don’t say that. No jinxing allowed lol. Actually been looking for sleds for several weeks now and hubby found a local store with a stash
Kevin: The clown map agrees with your assessment.
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/857763_353717268070668_33286432_o.jpg
Here is one possible tiny “benefit” / “silver lining” from the derecho. And there will be no way to measure this, unfortunately. But so many trees were either brought down or had big limbs torn off during the June 29th derecho that the number of trees that comes down from a heavy, wet snow this coming week may be a lot lower number than it would have been a year ago. And AEP and the multitude of workers from other states and regions also cut down lots of trees after that storm that had been greatly weakened.
Ashley: Snow should be over by Thursday morning. If they can clear the runway and not get backed up with other cancelled flights, your cruise might not be out of the question.
0Z GFS :/
Looks like the weenies will give me the dickens now. Here comes their north trend.
the heaviest precip will be north of I-64 towards NOVA but still a good 4-8″ south of I-64.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth102.gif
Mr. French is now the Bullseye with 25-30 inches if this is right!
Kevin Myatt you’ve made my night! Normally I’d say bring on the snow, but just this once I’d like for it to come and be manageable
Reed musta called Webb. LOL.. just kiddin’
Ashley…you should be OK. ROA is good on snow removal so you should have no problems.
About the outlooked warm-up for next weekend. That may happen IF we don’t get 6+ inches of snow. If we get a load, especially if it is 8+ in most areas, we can probably take off at least 5 or 6 degrees from those forecasted highs for next Friday and Saturday.
Ashley…
My experience has been it depends on
what the carriers decide to do Wed night.
They will not wait to see what the city does
or doesnt do. They will not tie up all their airplanes
in Roanoke on the “hopes or promises” the ramp and runways will be clear.
Many cities over promise in these scenarios..from the smallest cities to the largest ones.
If I were you Id have a couple of back up plans…
One of the things you may want to consider is driving to Charlotte
and travelling out of there.
Your best bet is to be proactive and ask questions of the carrier.
Ashley: Joe is a flight dispatcher at Dallas-Fort Worth, originally from this area. He knows what he’s talking about on these matters.
Oops…got cut off in mid sentence from #86 above…
To correct myself, there will be lots more than 4-8″ on the ground.
In reference to the “Weenies”, the American Wx Forum guys up in Philly and the northeast were going bonkers earlier over the 21Z SREF and 0Z NAM in that it had trended north and the heavier snow would be up that way. Sorry guys…GFS says no to your northerly trend.
If Kevin is willing to lean towards the Roanoke Valley getting significant snow on Wednesday 72 hours out…..I’d say we had better be prepared! As one of those folks who only visits here and seldom comments, I do know that he is usually cautious in making such predictions, and generally gets it right on the money, certainly more often than some of our local TV guys. I say bring it on, it will only make my family’s beach trip the first week of April all the more satisfying to finally escape winters chilly grip. Keep up the good work Kevin and thanks to you and all your weather bloggers here….if I want to know what’s happening with an approaching storm system anywhere from Bristol to Bedford and beyond all I’ve got to do is check by here. That’s pretty handy if you’re going to be traveling anywhere here in SW Virginia and the mid-Atlantic!
Ben, Do you mean it shifted south some compared to the 18z? Trying not to hug the models………………yet.
Latest GFS has Greene county for 20 inches! Please stay on course!
In reply to Quagmire’s comment#93, I wouldn’t trust the NAM nor the SREF at this range anyway.
This low will not be moving up the coast if the blocking holds. I don’t know why this concept is so hard to grasp.
Todd: It doesn’t look to have shifted south, but the axis of the heaviest precip looks to have come south a little. (Bullseye was around Winchester 18z, now it’s around Charlottesville) I’d expect small shifts like that at this point anyway. A shift south in the track could really put us in the heavy amounts again, though.
Kevin, saw your earlier post that snow should be over by Thursday morning so taking that to mean it won’t necessarily be a short event. If snow total end up being on the high end, looks like a Plan B will be needed for Thursday evening when the Plan A was to work with a group of visiting Vanderbilt students who are participating in the Friends of the Blue Ridge Parkway’s Alternative Spring Break project. If it is a foot or more, it’d take a while to dig out and get around.
19F and the ground is white now, not so windy so snow is accumulating rather than just blowing away somewhere like it has the past few days.
Thank you Joe for your advice. I plan to be very cautious about what can happen with my travel plans. I’ll be as prepared for changes as I can — but it’s possible my fiance and I will just be out of luck. C’est la vie, right?
Kevin, you still there? What are the latest upslope totals at Quinwood WV (involved in a QUAT!), Snowshoe, “Siberia” Highland County, Whitetop, and Kelly Hoge’s area, Burke’s Garden for the past 3 or 4 days?
Todd and Flutie, we are already past the 100-comment mark. 100 down, 900 (or 1200 in my case) to go.
All this talk about Wednesday, I didnt even notice it was snowin’ now. Gotta coating on the deck and windshields. I know it ainta big deal but if it was November we’d be talkin’ about it. Gotta feelin’ timin’ gonna be big on the biggun too. Night, day thing will play a big part.
Sunday 0Z GFS Ensemble Mean stays course verifies operational run. It’s a tad more east and colder.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA096.gif
GFS Ensemble precip. Still looking good.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72096.gif
Well…plan the best you can…
Try to have a couple of contingency
plans..
These cruises usually leave late in the day..
Is yours after 4pm?..
If so even if your flight would cancel Thur morn
there may be time to get to Fla (if thats where port is)
Check roanokeairport.com especially on Wed eve…
youll likely know then whether your flight will go.
One of my concerns isnt so much if the airport will be ok
Thur …but whether they will have enough folks to get
the snow off the planes. They may very well decide to leave
many of the airplanes out of town Wed (even if they COULD get in)
and fly in Thur morning with clean wings.
Ive been there and yes..done that..starting out right there off Hershberger Road.
And yes…WONDERFUL days.
Every single one of them.
Doug: I see Quinwood has 6 inches in 15 hours ending at 8:30 p.m. tonight. They had at least 3 inches before that Thursday-Friday. So that would be close to 9 total. Probably will be close to a foot after upslope squalls overnight.
I’m getting off for the evening. I will be pretty intermittent on Sunday. Gotta get some rest for the week ahead.
Woot! Woot! Starting to get excited about this potentially “historic” storm. Come on southerly track. Maybe we can get Kevin a raise if we get his numbers above 1300 for this storm.
“You can just call it an upper-level disturbance if you like.”
One might ‘like’ to call it that but one would also be very wrong by doing so.
By defintion…the identifying feature of an ‘upper level disturbance’ is one that does not have a reflection at the surface…IOW…there’s no area of LOW pressure analyzed at the surface. This is clearly not the case.
I KNEW I forgot something. The polar view. Snow lovers, as others have referred to about the “block,” today’s (now yesterday’s, or Saturday’s) view looks great. Both a 50-50 low AND green air around Greenland.
And Saturday’s observed levels of the AO (-1.8), NAO (-0.8) and the PNA (+1.1) all look terrific. PNA is expected to plunge rather quickly over the next 4 or 5 days, but remain barely +. Then maybe an upward surge again, but not to +1.
Latest Euro continues to show a huge hit for SWVA including roanoke. Model takes storm just south of state line and slides off NC coast around Roanoke Island. Looks like the 850 line is east of I 81 from hour 72 on during this run. Please someone correct me if I’m looking at this wrong…. Thanks
Kevin, you have made this teacher very happy! Bring on the snow!
Dwaynewayne: Your athletic event wouldn’t happen to be a swim meet would it? If so, your biggest problem may be having to clear enough space for parking and making sure folks can get up that big hill to the aquatic center!
26 and cloudy this morning.Was cold and windy yesterday only made it up to 36.Bring on the snow,gonna be interesting watching this unfold this week.
Did I hear Jared’s screams of potential joy all the way over here in my little valley?
Are we ready for a French Toast party on the weather blog Wednesday? I am ready for one last hurrah for winter!! Woohoo! (still reluctant to get my hopes up but right now it appears that we will at least get something)
Hey Harrisonburg………….forgot your handle, but you thought this storm had already decided to miss you. Well, here the GFS has you getting nearly 20 inches. That should hold you for a while.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Wow, models show little change! So they have been pretty similar for 2 days now. Is this a good sign that this could actually be the storm path?
I picked a heck of a week to drive to DC. Should be fun!
Brayden M. – We will look at it Monday and Tuesday, remind me!
The models sure are looking good for a huge snow for our area BUT, I get nervous when I read the local NWS discussions- “odd track for a snowstorm of this potential” and “typically don’t strenghten before they move off the coast”. They do mention that the atmospheric set-up is such to produce an uncommon storm. Seems like we have many more things to “bust” than even a typical snowstorm forecast.
All that being said- any chance we hear the “B” word in our area, or will the winds come in after the precip. has ended?
just a little snow in Pulaski this morning…..still waiting to see what happens on Wednesday. I am ready for spring, flowers and warm weather.
6Z GFS would cause some heartburn for snow lovers in SW Va. Doesn’t dig the vort, very dry looking in our part of the state. At this point, doesn’t have a lot of support other than from extremely fast and weak depiction of low on NAM, unreliable more than 48 hours out (and some would argue, 6 hours out). Euro/UKMET/Canadian/0Z GFS very much on the snow train.
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We’ll see if it keeps rolling or gets derailed. HPC has hopped on board (and this is just through 7 a.m. Wednesday).
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
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So has the NWS-Blacksburg.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
541 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY TOPPLE TREES AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WEDNESDAY.
From looking at the models and some early accumulation maps looks like we get the very low end as usual wouldnt be surprised at all if its mostly all rain here:(
NEWxSFC:
NOAA glossary makes no such distinction about an “upper-level disturbance” necessarily having a surface reflection:.
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Upper Level Disturbance
A disturbance in the upper atmospheric flow pattern which is usually associated with clouds and precipitation. This disturbance is characterized by distinct cyclonic flow, a pocket of cold air, and sometimes a jet streak. These features make the air aloft more unstable and conducive to clouds and precipitation.
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http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=u
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I’ve always heard/read the term used pretty vaguely by meteorologists to cover a wide variety of upper-air impulses with or without obvious surface reflectons.
Kevin, Any idea of the potential for far SW Virginia and East Tennessee? My mother lives down that way and my daughter is in college at ETSU. Just wanted to make them aware and to be prepared. Thanks.
Rick in wytheville…. You’re right. Im from Abingdon VA and i was spoiled for a few winters with all the snow. However, since moving the three valley of Harrisonburg winter is miserable. It hasn’t been cold enough to snow so it’s cold rain most of the time or the weather just splits the valley.
Robbie: Some snow potential down that way, less likely to get in on the bigger amounts that could occur somewhere north and east — up this way, or even farther north and east, depending on how this breaks down.
Ugh – now it’s looking like DC/Nova may be on the rain/snow line. Kevin and friends – any chance we get some of the snow action?
What is WSLS looking at? They’re just calling for a “wintry mix” Tuesday night and “snow showers” Wednesday.
So Kevin, you have taught the WJN to simply watch for trends when looking at the model runs with a storm still days away, each model seems pretty consistant with its interpretation of the data. Have you picked up on any trends (track, temps, precipitation shield, timing) over the last few model runs?
Kevin, do you see anything at all that could potentially derail this system, or at this point is it primarily a matter of how much snow we all get, not if we get snow? I live in C’ville, and several maps have us pegged in the 17-20 inch range. Not sure how realistic this is, however.
NAM and 6Z GFS would lend itself to a forecast like that, Jennifer.
New NAM moves a little closer to big low and significant snow idea of Euro, but not there yet. Fast and weak with storm. Still outside its wheelhouse of accuracy.
It’s all going to come down to how strong the blocking low pressure system off the eastern Canadian/New England coast is. If it’s strong enough per the Euro, the vort digs south and it’s a big snow here. If it’s not, it won’t dig as far south, and lesser amounts.
Gonna be off the blog for a while. Will peek in from time to time today.
I would still say at this point accumulating snow is LIKELY but NOT CERTAIN. There are still ways this can go off the tracks entirely.
Jennifer, if I’m not mistaken, WSLS doesn’t even have a live weather forcast on Sunday mornings. What you see is video from yesterdays weather forcasts. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong.
I was amused with Kenyon Gladu’s (EagleEye Wx) Facebook post:
GFS: Boom
CMC/GEM: BIG BOOM
NAVGEM: Boom
ECMWF: BIG BOOM
FIM: Boom
UKMET: Boom
–Weatherspeak for next week
A French Toast party – very funny Tina B! For Jared’s sake, let’s hope the bullseye booms/looms big over Greene.
29 here and breezy. Thinking of hiking today which may be a crazy thing to think.
12z GFS doesn’t look pretty in terms of snow. Maybe a couple inches at best.
New GFS shifts the bullseye to DC.
34* and it was cloudy all morning, but now the sun is out. It was shining for maybe 10 minutes where I was yesterday, not at all on Friday.
12z gfs shafts swva
Dear Sunday 12Z Euro…
Please tell me that you are going to come in better than the 12Z GFS did.
Oh boy…
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth084.gif
What’s making the gfs come so far north? (meaning from the coast of nc to the coast of VA) Is the model depicting less of a vort and slightly less blocking to allow this scenario? Also would this likely put us out of the running for a foot much less 2feet of snow now? I know this is one model run but is so gut wrenching right now. Please almighty Euro and Ukmet, Save us!
Kevin,
A question for you on another subject- wind. Is there data on the amount of wind we have had in the area this Winter, even going back to the Fall? This must be the windiest Winter we have had for 10+ years.
12Z GFS not very nice to SWVA’s looking for snow. .25 to .5 Liquid precip with warmer temps. Wait for the Euro. last nights GFS still showed around 1″. Could the latest run be an outlier or the trend? lets wait for Euro.
I have officially pulled the plug. Making a very bold call but feel as if it is the right one. South of 460 don’t expect much. Between 460 and 64.. possibly a few inches.. North of Lexington is when the show stars
MORE THAN HAPPY TO EAT MY WORDS IF I’M WRONG.
Check my blog for FULL explanation.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/bold.html
Zach i completely agree with you, thus is the life of weather i suppose.
It’s all about the broad blocking low off the Northeast US/Southeast Canadian coast, folks. If it’s strong enough, vort dives farther south and more snow for SW Va. If it’s not, vort doesnt dig south enough, less snow. GFS right now says it won’t dig south enough. Euro was still hanging strong with blocking/south track as of last run. Let’s see where this goes. Not over yet, either direction.
I’d suggest the NWS Glossary citation proves my point altho the widespread use of the phrase is applied loosely in like fashion as ‘CAD’ or ‘blizzard’ or ‘dynamic cooling’ where ‘storms pull cold air down from aloft’ or the ‘greenhouse effect’ misnomer.
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Not that USAToday is an authoritative source on all things meteorologic…
“(Upper air disturbances) are not associated with any surface storms…”
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/wupdistr.htm
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Maybe the AMS carries more gavitas…
Upper-air disturbance (Or upper-level disturbance.) A disturbance of the flow pattern in the upper air, particularly one that is more strongly developed aloft than near the ground.
http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Upper-air_disturbances
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I know your genuine interest in describing accurately the subjects about which you write. My comment was directed solely toward that end.
Storm looked so promising, even during last nights EURO. 50 miles will make a huge difference and we’re still 72 out, I’m going to wait on the euro, If it trends north I say game over for roanoke south in regards to 6+.
Well Zach, I hope you are going to be able to eat your words, because I am not sure I can take much more dis-snow-pointment this winter. But the truth is, I am having a hard time getting hyped up about this system.
Just like clockwork a model comes in and puts all snow lovers in a panic. If we see more runs come in today like that I will also be in that camp, but one run isn’t a trend.
Looking at things in more detail, this run of the GFS isn’t too different from last night’s in regard to low position and movement. It even moves southeast once it comes off the coast.
Wow zach makes sense…i have heard at least a foot fo my location but no map says that at least the ones i read…last one had a dusting for me…why do I get my hopes up!!!
Ill wait for the LOS model on Wednesday. (Look. Out. Side.)
Zach, good luck to you on your prediction. You will either be celebrating (your accurate prediction, that is); or like one of the individuals who were the subjects of one of those Southwest Airlines ads from early last year …. “Wanna get away?” I admire your boldness, because you put it forth in a low key, business-like manner. If the next Euro run also takes the storm well north, then there will be tremendous “Weeping, And Gnashing Of Teeth” here. Especially if future runs continue that idea.
Kevin is getting ready to reply to both of us. At this point, this is one run of one model, and it is still 2+/3 days ahead.
When will the Euro be out?
Zach, I just read your description. And the same thing struck me that you mentioned …. that I was surprised (no, not skeptical nor incredulous) when the first maps showed this storm approaching us from the western parts of the Ohio River and then Kentucky, not even through Tennessee or someplace more southern. I am sure that there are multiple precedents for such a path to dump on SW Virginia, but not the path that I think of when I think big snows for us.
Hhhhmmmmm…… I think I said yesterday, don’t get hopes up too much snow lovers! Its still aways out…..
” oh, but this one is the exception!” I was told….
As I said…… hmmmmmmmmmmm.
Euro Model. Can anyone tell me what time the next Euro Model run comes out?
Thanks
When does the 12z euro come out
Zach,
DT doesn’t seem to care about the so-called shift north in the new models. In fact he does’t think they have shifted north at all. Thoughts?
Plz Plz Plz shift south i want snow and lots of it…thanks:-)
Meanwhile, back at the ranch ….. Temp just DROPPED 1.5 degrees here in the last 30 minutes, from 38.5 to 37. According to wunderground, the high so far at RRA is 35, and it was 34 at 12:54. 27* at Blacksburg!! Looks like even my prediction of 41* or less could have been even quite a bit lower. 3rd straight missed forecast looms for ROA high temp by NWS, 7, 10. Looks like snow showers are in the Bburg vicinity. Any chance of getting 8/10ths of inch over there to save Kevin on the snow meter, anyone?
12z holds serve with another good hit for Southwest Virginia. Close to 2″ QPF pretty much all snow. Might have shifted maybe a tiny bit north, but nothing very notable yet.
New Euro still shows 12-18″ of snow in Roanoke on Wednesday. Hard to argue with this kind of consistency. I stand by my 8-14″ prediction. If I had to pick a specific number, it would be 9″.
The NAM and the GFS have now just tossed the snow north of Roanoke. Harrisonburg, you still do well. Here’s the GFS.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Ooooops. That last link was the NAM. Here’s the GFS.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
The models are taking our joy and hope all away. Maybe I should relish the 1/2″ we had this morning. Still snowing but mostly flurries but man is it cold. Temp now is 29 breezy degrees. I refuse to let the models dampen my spirits or remove my desire to be prepared. I will get the gas and the wood ready and take it as it comes. March is no respecter of persons and the models do not control the weather, only predict it. If we live there will always be another potential storm in the future for us to talk about and anticipate. That is part of the fun especially in the winters we have been experiencing. If we can’t have snows at least we can talk about them. Going to Church League Volleyball and will check in tonight.
THANK YOU SUNDAY 12Z EURO OPERATIONAL RUN and UKMET!!!!
Zach are you basing your fold on the 12Z GFS and NAM? Come on Man! You know better. Remember how bad the GFS was with Irene and Sandy?
Euro is going to nail this…If the Euro Ensembles verify with the operational run later this afternoon, you may want to reconsider. Go read Robert G’s latest post at WxSouth. This is no where near over for SW VA.
Hey, it’s only an 18-inch difference between forecast models, y’all. What’s the big deal?
I agree with Brandon…
12Z Euro has 12-18″ for NRV, Roanoke and the entire Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge. The totals will start to drop off east of the 29 corridor.
The Euro stays the course and does not budge. Only the 12Z GFS showed a more northerly track with the Low over the Tidewater. Euro keeps the Low in the sweet spot for a BIG VIRGINIA SNOW.
Snow Lovers, you may resume your dancing.
Seems as if only the GFS is pessimistic. Even channel 7 is calling for a 6 to 9 inch shot of white. I just saw a map that has us at the tip of an 18 to 24 corridor that follows 81 up above Harrisonburg.
The GFS eventually showed a similar solution to the Euro by not taking the storm off Georgia, I believe one run had it above Ohio and through Penn? Looking back the GFS has been trying to get rid of the block for a long time. I’m still not as confident about the storm as I once was, but feel a little better now after the 12Z Euro. My thoughts were as follows. 1) the GFS gets better once inside 84 hours 2) this run for the GFS has had 12 more hours to look at the storm VS the 0Z Euro. 3) It had started to show a trend with it’s runs taking the low more north. Now that the Euro has ran should we give it the upper hand 1) it has had a few more hours on the storm compared to the 12Z GFS 2)The 12Z GFS ensembles still show a decent hit for SWVA 3) The Euro has been more consistant with the blocking high VS the GFS 4) Euro has a much better track record this winter. 5) I’m bias and want a monster!!!
BTW I’m always trying to learn more, if any of my comments above are off kilter let me know
Pistol Pete – - Love Your Model Man!!!
Zach…Here are some words of wisdom that you need to follow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE
Good one…Kev
It’s a little annoying when they were both in pretty good agreement last night. Now they’ve diverged, and I need some antacids.
Didn’t mention this in my blog – - didn’t really think of it.. but I can see a line from Roanoke to Martinsville EAST doing much much better than the NRV. Bottom Line: I expect NRV to be on Southern/Eastern edge of heaviest snow. Those in from Roanoke – Lynchburg.. still a very high level of uncertainty on my part — but for my stomping grounds (CC/NRV), I am fairly confident. EURO is not too good for the NRV – - this is important.
One thing that has not been mentioned regardless of the North South shift, the sublte shift EAST as to when this thing turns Negative…As opposed to going Negative over say Charlotte – - it’s happening east of there.. which takes best dynamics East of the NRV.
ALOT of you guys that commented I think are in the “area of uncertainty” – - and it is just that. My Bold Call specifically is I do not think this will be a major event for areas South of 460 AND West of Roanoke. Everywhere else is still very much in play.
I hope I’m wrong I promise you guys I will EAT my words.. but the possiblity of Roanoke getting 8″.. and Hillsville getting 2″.. appears to be growing – - and that was the basic grey area in my train of thought. Lesser Chances South of 460 and West of Roanoke.
How the heck can the models vary that much?!?!?
Basically, while the GFS and NAM could be right, they’re pieces of crap! Really a bunch of crap. Euro has shown so much consistency and has a good track record!
euro clown map anybody?
27* at 2:30 snowblower gassed up.
Haha, that made me LOL Kevin. But wow though, an 18 inch difference is incredible. A classic battle for sure between Euro and GFS.
This battle of the models is killing me…can’t we(the models) just get along! This back and forth is like politics, I feel like my snow might be sequestered!
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Zach you are FAR MORE knowledgeable than I about weather but….. I do hope you have to eat your words. I have eaten my words many times, tastes like chicken, and I recommend them with a cold beer. Like Brandon said about the Euro “Hard to argue with this kind of consistency. Hope your wrong but who knows plenty of balls to watch in this ping pong game.
Just got in from Snowshoe and got my snow fix for the year. The upslope machine was on full throttle and we got almost a foot between Friday and today and it was still pouring down when I left, but bring on Wednesday! More is better.
I’m finally getting a bit excited folks! I’ve even heard the “B” word mentioned as winds will be supposedly high! They are comparing this, if it comes to fruition, to a mega-1962 Ash Wednesday snowstorm.
So http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Roanoke+VA+24015:4:US says potential for significant snow accumulation! I really hope we get a decent snow this week and not a dinky 3 inch one. Is it pretty likely that we will get a pretty big snow fall?
Sunday 12Z Euro operational snow map from DT at wxrisk.com
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk#!/photo.php?fbid=494902860556977&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater
Kevin hits the funny button again in his 2:07 pm comment! What’s the diff?!?! Between rapture and some cases of despair for snow lovers; and between probably lots of downed power lines, outages, and terrible travel conditions vs. no problems; for everyone. You are right, KM, what’s the diff?? :>) :>)
Whenever the 0z Euro comes out, will SOMEBODY please post a link with the visuals? Thank you.
I don’t have a clue what this storm will do, and it’s obvious NOBODY ELSE DOES EITHER. I do know this: Todays forecasted highs are a joke. 29.5*. I hope it’s 59*, sunny and not a breath of air stirring Wed. I will truly be happy when all the hype, bad forecasting and guessing is over and done with. Just takes the fun outta gettin a storm anymore. I seem to recall first mention of this storm back around the middle of Feb, I think.
DT just posted maps of the most recent Euro, as has Captain Glen. DT proclaims that the Euro shows the Low a bit even further south in NC vs. earlier run.
hey whats more accurate the euro or the gfs the gfs has us getting nothing and euro has us hammered wtf when does next models come out jeff hanewich thinks we will get hardly nothing i dont know what to think
Oh Kevin, comment #171 had me rolling! Just 18 inch difference, no biggie LOL. In my gut I feel this will hit Roanoke with between 8-10 inches. Locally, there could be greater amounts.
If you need new sleds/sleighs, Northwest Hardware on Brambleton still has a pretty good selection.
The new HPC snow probability maps are out.
Roanoke is in the high risk of 4″+, moderate risk of 8″+, and slight risk of 12″+.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
so Roanoke will get one inch¿
NWS calling for significant upslope event when the storm is winding down, with that being said, I’m assuming upslope and banding is not figured in the predicted storm totals ?
The trend right now is away from big snow in Roanoke. Can’t deny that. But let’s give it another run before we throw the towel in completely.
@ Todd in SW city….that was FUNNY!
Can we take a step back from the upcoming storm and get some current observations? I’m up in Beckley right now and wondering about the trip back this evening. The radar shows snow coming down in the Burg.
I’m rooting for the GFS but prepping for the Euro.
Snow Lover Bburg – it is just flurries here….has been doing that off and on all day.
Euro ensembles show a track even farther south than the OP Euro run. This would take Roanoke out of the 12-18″ and into something around 8-12″- which is actually right in line with my 9″ call.
I don’t know where Brandon R. is getting his info about snow trending away from Roanoke, I have heard NOTHING but the opposite from DT and many outlets. Even the WTC, which I don’t normally take stock in, has named it Saturn and mentioned SW Virginia specifically!!
31 on the little river. Flurries and sun shine.
Scott: GFS and NAM are showing much less snow on SW Va. today. Doesn’t mean it’s what will happen. Euro still a huge hit, especially Roanoke north and east. That’s the reason for all the model angst on here today. Literally a 0-18 inch range in some of our region.
I’m thinking low-end…… 1 to 3 inch…roanoke valley! Sorry folks! History shows us that generally it has to be “perfect” to get the “biggun” here! Not this time!
Has the storm changed paths slightly? It’s still 3 days away! I just hate when people get your hopes up for a big snow & then BOOM we get like an inch. I hope that doesn’t happen this time. I would love to see a good 8-12 inch snow before winter’s over. Also, I heard something about “blizzard-like” conditions are possible on Wednesday. Is that true?
Brandon, what would you consider “big” snow for Roanoke? 2 1/2 hours ago, you were standing by your prediction of 8-14″. I think 8″ is pretty big for Roanoke in March. Hoping your prediction is right!
18z GFS leaves areas from Roanoke and points south with virtually no accumulations.
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This type of model spread gives me a headache.
Have watched snow squalls and and snow showers non-stop for 3 days here( 1 mile up Peter’s Mt. Rd.) 26 degrees most of the day yesterday, 25 now. Guess I’m in the upslope machine,according to the radar.
I don’t think anyone can truly predict how much snow we get until the snow actually gets here. This is a pretty big storm system so we just don’t know what will happen yet. It’s still 3 days away and the models could change A LOT in those 3 days. All I know is I’m hoping for a nice big snow to end this winter. That’s what everyone has been talking about today is how big this snow is going to be and now people are saying it’s not going to be big at all. How can you be so sure when it’s not Wednesday yet?
The 18 Z lays down the precip, looked over 1″. I know it’s an off run. Lets say you take the blend of both models, Euro shows significant precip and the 18Z GFS. The blend of the two models would give roanoke a good snow.
Kevin I love it! I could just hear Jay Webb come on at 6pm and say:
“Snowfall forecasts for the entire region will be in the 0-18 inch range. Please prepare yourself accordingly”
Hope: Two entirely different issues here.
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(1) Will there a big snowstorm? Very likely, yes there will be.
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(2) Will it be a big snow outside anyone’s particular window, wherever that may be? That’s what is in flux and hard to nail down.
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You’re right we wont’ know for sure til Wednesday. But there are often important clues ahead of time. And that’s what we discuss on here.
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This site isn’t primarily about being “right” about a forecast or prediction, it’s about discussing the whole process of weather before, during and afterward.
Hey Kevin do you think we could still have decent shot of snow this far southeast or still uncertainty?
Kevin: I understand. I find it interesting. I think it’s partially me that’s getting frustrated because I personally want a big snow. I know that’s out of your control, but I still hope it happens
We have had nothing but disappointment snows this year, I hope this one actually is fairly decent. WDBJ7 is saying right now that Roanoke could see snowfall totals of 5-9 in & added on to that saying there is even a slight potential of 1-2 feet, depending on how this storm plays out.
Kevin- Do you by chance know if the block is as strong today as the euro was projecting on lets say friday or yesterday? If the Block is weaker than what was projected maybe the GFS is on to something and the Euro has not caught up.
Just did another snow dance to bring the snow to Floyd!
Scott: The GFS has continued to move things farther north all day. I’m not saying that is what’s going to happen. I’m simply stating facts. I still think Roanoke comes away with 8-14″.
Confucius say 1- 3 inches for the Roanoke area
Looking at DT’s facebook, no wonder mets don’t produce snow totals early. People get so angry! Since you guys control the weather and all I would like to request and all or nothing scenario. Give me 18 in and wind or give me spring. No more 1-2″ snows all they do is muddy up the trails and ruin my runs!!!
Should I be scared of Roanoke not getting anything
Lol. How’s that meter lookin’ Kev?
The GFS is going north, the Euro south. Was it not at about this stage with Sandy that the GFS was complete BS and the Euro did a little hitch too? The way I see it is that the Euro has long plastered us. I think we will get snow, more than any other storm this season. Do we get 18+? That remains to be seen.
By tomorrow evening there “should” be a lot more agreement on what this event holds for SW Virginia. There will still be some differences, but I bet either the GFS/NAM change a lot, or the Euro does.
I just looked at today’s polar view, and it looks weird. I don’t know how to interpret it …. will try to describe it. The green air that was over southern Greenland has split into two pieces. There is an isolated “blob” of green air that is actually west of Greenland, touching a piece of the Canadian Atlantic coast (Labrador?). There is now blue air between the southern tip of Greenland and partway to Scotland. The core of the coldest air in the Northeast and SE Canada is over Penn., NY State, all of New England, and New Brunswick Canada (the province just east of Maine). What happens to those patches of green air west of Greenland and the blue air over New England may have a great deal to do with where the Low goes and how it affects us and the eastern USA in general.
more fun ….. I will try to post the link to the polar view. raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif
Posted a new thread to move us into the evening. Nothing earth-shatteringly new there, but I did throw out some probabilities for Roanoke/Blacksburg snow just for the heck of it.
Hope to post new again late evening
18z GFS snow map:
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/6205/e45e359f4c1140c682c0f9d.png
Sometimes watching the goings on here seems a bit
like ,say , a classroom of sorts..
Some bring apples every day…some write a 500 word essay
using only 30 or 40 of the same words.
And theres always one or two who are frantically waving their
arms and hands and propped up on one cheek as if their bladder
were going to burst …then finally the relent.
“Yes Johnny”
“Mr Myatt…do you think my pencil is sharp enough?”
…
a head scratch…a pause…a look west at what may be the leading edge
of an “upper air” system..
a finger tap to the side of the chin..then..deliverance..
“Your “pencil” is just fine kid..just keep it outta your ear”
sleeting here in roanoke county, you think this might mean a earlier start to snow