Weekend warmup won’t last long
The strong western Atlantic low (satellite photo linked here) that led to heavy snow amounts Tuesday and Wednesday north of the Roanoke Valley (Roanoke Times article and photos on Rockbridge County’s heavy snow linked here) is continuing to wreak havoc on the East Coast with high ocean surge in regions affected heavily by Superstorm Sandy. Click on this link from the newly renamed Weather Prediction Center (formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) for a list of various inclement weather reports from the storm.
Rotation around the low will keep some cold westerly to northwesterly breezes going into at least Friday, but this is March, with a higher sun angle and more hours of sunlight than midwinter, and the air mass is not as deeply Arctic as it could be. High temperatures with sunny skies in the 40s to low 50s will reign the next couple of days in Southwest Virginia, which are generally a little below normal. Then the blocking pattern that has trapped cold air in the southern and eastern U.S. finally loses its grip, leading to a weekend warmup that could push temperatures above 60 on Sunday. It will be a short lived warmup, though, as a strong low pressure system dragging a cold front approaches early next week, leading to what could be a period of substantial rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, adding to what has flipped from drought into a moist past 6 weeks or so in the region. But the front it pulls through also will begin the process of developing a new colder than normal air mass that may hang on much of the next 10 days to 2 weeks afterward. Colder than normal for mid March will probably mean some 40s highs/20s lows days. Presumptions that the storm Tuesday and Wednesday was the “last shot” at significant snowfall in Southwest Virginia may or may not be true if this colder pattern develops in full, with high-latitude blocking highs trapping bubbles of relatively cold air far to the south of normal. Although, as we move later on the calendar moving from winter to spring, an atmospheric setup leading to snow must fire on even more of its cylinders perfectly to make it work, especially in lower elevations. Snow chances aside, it is becoming increasingly apparent that this March will be much different on the thermometer than last year’s warmest March on record.
March 7, 2013 - 12:24 AM
RSS feed 
Hope your birthday was happy. Thank you for all your analysis and hard work. This is the very best place to find the most weather information. I am still holding out for one more snow. It appears we may have a chance.
Relly enjoy your weather reporting. Keep up the great work.
Not what I wanted to hear. I’m ready for the warmth.
Bring on the rain!! Unfortunately, all this moisture since late January is going to have a big negative effect, I think, for one group of people in a few weeks: allergy sufferers. I think I read in the past that lots of moisture in the ground makes everything grow abundantly, including vegetation that causes allergies.
Temp here is somewhere in the 30s. My digital thermometer is now on the blink, but hopefully will recharge during the day.
Like right now. Temp is 34.5*
I know few of you will likely have an interest in DC’s weather (or DC in general given our dysfunctional Govt
but I have copied a great scientific explanation from Bob Ryan, a venerable veteran and well respected forecaster in DC for many years. He owns up to a busted snow forecast (even though days before he expressed skepticism of an accumulating snow in DC which proved to be accurate). Anyway, it’s a great explanation of this weird snowstorm if anyone cares to take a look.
http://www.wjla.com/blogs/weather/2013/03/washington-snow-storm-why-the-bust–18252.html
When I want accurate weather forecasting, this blog is where I come. Kevin, I have commented only a few times in the past when I lived in South Dakota, but last fall my family and I moved back to the area. Someone in the last few days commented on the wind in our area and how it seems to be the windiest winter in the last 10 years or so, just based on personal observations. After living in South Dakota for 3+ years, I must admit I was ready for relief from the wind (and cold), but the wind has been just as prevalent here as it was in Rapid City. I do not recall it ever being this windy in Southwestern Virginia growing up and living in this area mostly all of my life. Is there any data to back up what could only be a misguided observation?
I’m ready for the warmth too, but at least the outdoor work I plan on doing this weekend won;t be negatively impacted by a turn to cooler conditions.
I’m so sorry I missed your birthday Kevin! Happy belated to you! Hope you had a great one.
I spent my day home yesterday painting my kitchen. New cabinets being installed today. So I appreciated having a snow day!
And Doug, you’re right about all the allergy sufferers. Being one of them, I’m dreading this upcoming spring!
Lets just hope for a warm and dry April. I LOVE snow but it’s getting a little late for that…because I love riding my motorcycle even more.
Captain America: Ah, South Dakota, my favorite Plains state! Always love to end up there on or May/June storm chase trips. I get the observation about increased wind from long-time residents on a regular basis. Not sure what the quality of wind data is going back. Starting to think it’s something I should look into more deeply when (if) the time presents itself.
Bring on the cold!! Did not get much in Jan so why not March!! April looking above normal for temps for warm lovers. Cold lovers rejoice and who knows maybe more snow.
Mid-day report from blustery Doppler Ridge: it is 31 over at the base of the Doppler; 36 here at home just down the road from the Doppler; and was 33 on the truck thermometer as we were out and about. Still cloudy and no sign of the sun. We still have snow up here – about 50% of it is gone. Waiting on the sun to come out and melt the rest.
KM,
Do you think this pattern you speak of will drift on our of here by easter weekend? I’m pulling the camper out that week to union grove, nc and I need some warmth!!!!
I would love to see one more chance at snow, though I believe it to be unlikely. What good is cold air without snow!?! Kevin: I have lived in Roanoke most of my life and I cannot remember a windier winter. I think there may be something to the increased winds theory. Let us know what you find out when you get the time to research it. Many thanks for all you do Kevin!
Welcome Captain America. I moved my family back here from Vermillion, so I’m pretty darned familiar with South Dakota weather myself. My wife fusses at me for complaining about how boring the weather usually is in the Shenandoah!
Kevin (or Joe or Quags), do you see anything on the distant horizon (after things cool down again next week) which might give us another chance at snow?
I might try to get in one last ski trip next weekend so am hoping the cold snap next week will also bring another storm with it.
Thanks
Alot of folks know I keep up with the weather and have had several ask me about the wind this year. I’d be most interested in what’s said about the wind. I don’t remember it ever being this bad all winter long before.
Shot in the dark winds theory: Obstacles like trees slow down winds. A lot of trees were damaged/knocked down by the derecho, therefore the winds move faster. Commentary? P.S. Happy late birthday Kevin!!
Specifically this winter, I think the wind is just related to the series of highly amplified storm systems that have moved southwest to northeast across the central and eastern U.S. We’ve probably had at least half a dozen of these now since Christmas — 1 to 3 would be more typical. They don’t have to get terribly close to us to trigger wind with the pressure differential combined with the mountain effects.
-
What I’m more interested in is whether local wind has increased in winter during the past 10-20 years over previous decades, as many long-time residents have expressed to me that they think is the case.
I’m in DC, I was glad to read your comment and also the link to what Bob Ryan wrote and explained. I think that Bob Ryan is one huge class act. Almost as big a one as Kevin. He was a weather forecaster in Boston for at least 10 years, through at least part of 1978 (he was there for the Blizzard ….. oops, maybe it didn’t quite qualify to technically be a blizzard …
of 1978), as I was. I think he was in the DC area by early 1979, when the Washington area had its turn around President’s Day. I moved to Laurel Md from Boston in April 1980 and then on to Alexandria, VA in Sept. 1983. So he and I were in the same area for decades.
One stupendous thing about him is that he is not a bit shy to admit when he is or has been wrong. I was a substitute teacher in Fairfax County for about two years in the early 1990s, and got a real treat. He came to the elementary school where I was subbing. So he was surprised when a 2nd grader asked him a detailed question about the huge Massachusetts snowstorm of 1978!! You can guess who “fed” that question to the little student ….
John-Rville: Don’t see anything out there to really focus on yet. How much snow you still have on your yard?
I hadn’t really noticed that this winter had been all that windy compared to others, but that means zero, because for the first winter ever as a letter carrier, I was sitting behind the wheel for the vast majority of time. To amplify on what Weather Wizard said in comment 20, I bet the Pacific jet (from the major negative PNA back then) that DT referred to in one of his calmer moments way back in December had a lot to do with creating huge winds for the first half of winter.
The NRV is the windiest place I’ve ever lived. I’ve lived here (Christiansburg, Blacksburg, Narrows) since 1998, and every year I’ve dreaded the months between about December and April for all the wind. I grew up in New England and I don’t mind cold, even bone-chilling freeze-your-nose-shut cold, as long as it isn’t windy.
-
On another topic, any chance the sun is ever going to come out again? I feel like it’s been gray and cloudy for weeks over here in Narrows. It’s making me gray and cloudy.
Some other pieces on the DC snow bust:
-
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/snowquester-no-show-in-washington-reveals-lessons-for-weather-climate-forecasting-15704
-
http://tinyurl.com/ckurv5a
-
On Weather Journal, with the site more about weather discussion than purely weather forecasting, we’re not afraid to discuss multiple scenarios, uncertainty in forecasts, lack of confidence, etc. I think it worked out pretty well with this particular storm, which ended up generally following our final expectations, though not specifically so in every single local case.
A couple of fellow bloggers today mentioned that they would like to see warmer temps. Kevin is correct about the next 8 to 10 days or so, but after that?? If we had had a truly cold winter, I would say that the chances for a major league warmup were high, like what happened in early April 2010 (8 straight days of between 81 and 90 for highs at Roanoke!!!) and to a lesser extent in April 2011 (ROA was 4.0 degrees warmer than normal).
The only truly cold March since 2000 was in 2005, when it was -3.1 for Roanoke. April 2005 was not a warm one …. it was normal at +0.6. April 2005 started off warm through the 11th, then there were two fairly major cool snaps, one between the 12th and 17th and another 23rd through the 29th. Because we have a sample size of only one (one cold March previously), we basically have nothing to go on from previous years.
One other note: are we due for a cold April? YES! I bet the “statics” will show that previous Aprils this century have been almost uniformly warm or near normal, with probably only one or two truly cool ones.
Bottom line: the oscillations may give us a few days “warning” or notice that temps are about to rise substantially. They definitely happened in February 2011, and I think also in late March 2010. If the outlooks show both the NAO and AO going on a rocket ride, that would be the signal (assuming that the PNA doesn’t go for a dive at the same time).
KM, thanks for the link to the article by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central. He discussed how the fact that the DC area federal government offices closed for the day (as well as local schools) turned out to be nothing more than a snow drill, and I agree with that. Remember, locals, DC and its inner suburbs don’t have the big elevation changes that both greater Roanoke and greater Blacksburg-Christiansburg do. But he said something else that I have to disagree with a little bit, and I realize I am splitting hairs in a way. He claimed that the badly missed forecast “turned into every weather forecaster’s worst nightmare — a bust of a forecast for a heavily populated and politically influential region, in which the the predicted 5 to 10 inches of snow for Wash/Balt actually yielded just 0.2 inches of slop.”
I agree that the missed forecast for that area is a huge embarrassment and a big nightmare, but the worst nightmare would have been if they forecasted only 0.2 inches and instead GOT the 6+ inches. Can you imagine the traffic problems for them if that hit starting at 2 or 3 PM?? I can attest that Washington traffic was sometimes a nightmare even in good weather 30 years ago!! When the Air Florida flight went down in January 1982, traffic in that snowstorm was crawling before the tragedy. Now? Gridlock.
It was so heavy, it settled significantly last night. I’d say there was about 5-6″ out the yard this morning. Seems like Charlottesville had more snow than we did. I hear that Wintergreen had about 2 feet.
I was driving from Lynchburg to Roanoke this afternoon and it was quite a sight seeing the snow capped Peaks of Otter and the Blue Ridge. I was up in Seattle last week and I got to see the very impressive snow capped Cascade Range and Mt. Rainier. On a more local note, only an inch here at my home in Southwest Roanoke city. All of it gone by mid afternoon. I’m about ready for spring to start. Glad the clocks go forward this weekend so it can stay light a little longer in the evening.
John in R’ville…
+1 with Kevin on the crystal ball not seeing anything thru March 20.
You should be OK going skiing Thru March 18 if you are headed to Snowshoe, Canaan or Timberline. Wintergreen & Massanutten will be in good shape thru next weekend too. My buddy at the Shoe who works up there said right now thru next weekend will be the best conditions of the season for them so get up there now!
I just checked the outlooks for the 3 oscillations, and for those of you wanting warmer than normal temps, it looks to be a struggle for AT LEAST the next ten days (except for Saturday through Monday), and perhaps for LONGER than that. Looking back at the AO, it has not been positive for an extended period of time in what looks like a month of Sundays ….. literally. It is long overdue to go + and stay there, but the outlooks show absolutely no sign of it. Link time: http://www.cpc,ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Please focus on the top graph. The black line shows the actual AO values since early November, the most recent time it was positive above +1.0 and for more than 10 days. AO was + for about 10 days spanning late January and early FEB, but only maxed at about 1.4. for a day or two. I had not realized that it had been avoiding the + numbers for so long a time.
Correction: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml The AO outlooks. SORRY!!
The NAO is not quite as “depressing,” but nor does it paint any kind of bump into the + numbers, either. All “eight??” models show it remaining slightly negative throughout the next two weeks, although the only timeframe that has real meaning is the next 7 to 9 days. Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_daily_ensm.shtml . This oscillation has been + at various times during late autumn and winter, so is not so “overdue” as the AO is for a shift into + numbers.
WVa mountains probably get another snow or two from upslope in the next week or two.
-
The early outlook is that the cold pattern ahead will be mostly dry, no obvious winter storm setups. Keep in mind that “cold” is a subjective term that steadily increases as March goes along. Even now, 50 high/ 30 low would be about 5 degrees below normal for Roanoke.
-
My experience suggests that at least some kind of elevation-dependent snow situation crops up if we have a prolonged below-normal period in March, but a more widespread winter storm threat requires a bit more effort.
Grrrr, at myself. NAO link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
Happy belated birthday Kevin!
I agree on the wind being worse but I can’t prove anything one way or another.
I am officially ready for spring.
Looks like I’ll have to reset my time to Daylight Chicken Time now. Heads up DC.
The PNA, which I will not continue as my own little exercise in futility trying to get the links correctly set up here, shows a drop over the next few days past neutral into slightly negative numbers, then a short bump back up. That looks fairly certain. After that, outlooks have it bouncing down and up. No real shot into big plus or minus levels on the horizon for right now.
Bottom line of the oscillations? Right now it looks like there is a real chance that this March could end up as the coldest one this century. Needs to remain 3.2 degrees colder than normal, or maybe a bit more given the adjustment of the normals last year. 44.1 was the coldest March mean for Roanoke, in 2005.
OK, now that I have been a sort of prophet of doom and gloom for warmer temps, there may be a gigantic plus to it. Many times when we had late springs in my life, both in MASS. and up in the DC area, they were spectacular for color. Where I lived south of Old Town Alexandria was famous for having lots of mature azalea bushes, and I remember one spring (possibly in 1987, after those 3 10+-inch snowstorms) when looking outside was looking at a technicolor Andy Warhol movie. Absolutely vivid colors.
wd, Doppler Carol, Indian Valley John, Michael H.: have you four noticed such a linkage like that? I realize that moisture levels also play a very big role.
wdbrand – thanks for the reminder to switch to Daylight Chicken Time!
Someone must have found the knob to turn down the wind – thank you!!! Down to 29 already up here on the ridge. I don’t think it got above 36 here today and with the wind blowing, it was probably below freezing. I love snow but I am ready for spring!
Oh, there is one local example of a spring that started late and then went berserk, and the colors WERE boffo. 2010. Forsythia did not fully blossom until March 22nd here, the latest ever (we have lived in this house since Jan. 1999). But on Easter Sunday, 4-4-10, our Kwanza Cherry tree and the dogwoods exploded with colors and zillions of blossoms. Less than 10 days later the azaleas were out and putting forth lots of vivid blossoms. That was a little payback for this letter carrier who had a lot of stress from Dec. 18, ’09 until late February 2010.
Mr. Griggs you hit the nail on the head!! The storm had the POTENTIAL for a dump of snow which would have created havoc with traffic, ala Feb 2011 when everyone complained the forecasters should have erred on the side of a possibly heavier snow (1-3″ forecasts when 6-9 fell). You know as well as I do had forecasters called for <1" and a 10" dump came, they would have been skewered. KM said it best in one of his earlier comments, " a few miles meteorologically is similar to just a few inches on a football field…" Folks just a few miles west and south of DC picked up a half foot. I'm not so sure it was as big a bust as people claim. Weather forecaster in DC, or anywhere, can't win. My only axe to grind (other than Congress) is Mother Nature… 9 missed winter storms this year!?! Not that I'm counting…
One more note before I go eat supper. I looked back through the previous 13 Aprils here in Roanoke, and I was very right for a change. NONE of them have been truly colder than normal. Only two were a bit cooler than normal. 2007 had a monthly mean of 55.9 degrees, or just 0.2 less than normal, and way back in 2000 the mean was 54.8, the only April that was more than a degree cooler than normal at -1.2. Three Aprils, including 2010 and 2011, were at least 4 degrees warmer than normal. 2010′s 60.9 mean (a +4.8) was the warmest. 2006 was just a hair behind, at 60.8 (+ 4.7). Some of these +s and minuses may seem to be off by a tenth when comparing to normal, but that is because the normal mean changed slightly in 2001 and 2012.
Hey Kevin, I enjoy your weather reporting.
You should do a “real-time” weather class- do a combination of observation, internet resources, predicting, post-action reporting etc. It could be fun- I’d pay $20-30 for a one-month course.
If you want, I’ll help you develop the curriculum! Either way, thanks!
Hmm, way off topic but trout were stocked in Carroll County yesterday. High’s in the 50º’s Saturday and Sunday, maybe I can cure my cabin fever.
Happy belated birthday, Kevin! Just arrived home from Myrtle Beach where it was cool and windy most of the week. Although I’m a bit sad I missed the little snow that we did have, I am definitely ready for spring time.
Hey, Flutie and Todd in SW City, we did it. By “we” I mean all of us bloggers. On Saturday evening in comment 25 at 8:38 pm, Flutie mentioned the possibility of having over 1000 comments between then and (through) Thursday. 4 comments later on Saturday, Todd said that if there were an over and under, he would take the over (and win!). And I said in comment 57 that night that why don’t we go for 1300 in ’13? Well, up through the previous post, there have been 1295 comments since that Saturday evening thread.
I don’t know if Kevin is happy about it or regusted, but I know for a fact that he is happy that it is over with. I bet (and certainly hope) that you slept like a dog (old family expression, meaning that a person slept a lot and soundly) last night, birthday man.
Happy for all the support and contributions. But definitely glad it’s past. Winter has been a grind. Could use some coast time for a while.
-
Beginning to think about storm chasing, even though it’s 2 1/2 months before I head out with VT gang.
This morning was chilly low was 33.High was 43.Still 6 inches on the ground but its melting quick.Probaly the last snow until next December.
Thanks Kevin and Quags. Even if it doesn’t snow, sunny and lower than normal temperatures sounds pretty good for mid-March.
Quags, have you hung up your skis for the year or are you going back for a few more runs?
Kevin, I don’t believe it. Blacksburg picked up a paltry, measly 0.3 inches of snow yesterday!! Unless some upslope snow showers come to your rescue between now and Sunday, the Blacksburg snow meter curse continues. Unbelievable. Truly. I would have given 9 snowflakes for Bburg and 10 for ROA. And been even more wrong for Bburg.
On Tuesday evening at 8:22 pm (comment 175 on that thread, just before KM started a new thread), I made the following comment: I hope that a few of you will find it funny.
Kevin, if you get another miss this week on the snow meter for Blacksburg, I think you ….. check that, ALL OF US …. ought to send some priests over there and and have it examined to see if it is possessed by weather demons. And those demons read this blog, too. “Heh, heh, let’s wait to see what Myatt predicts on his snow meter, then we will tantalize him but ultimately leave him on the wrong side of one inch.” For Blacksburg to come in with less than an inch when from this when it looked so promising 3 days ago is really bizarre.
I’ve been here 14 years. In all the previous winters before this one, I NEVER saw 1 single event in which it was snowing in Roanoke for hours while it was raining in Blacksburg. Not once. Now, it’s happened twice in a month’s span this winter. Nobody’s snow meter is calibrated for weirdness like that.
Listening in as I sometimes do, and thought I’d mention, since others have covered outside Roanoke areas, that we up north have seemed to have wind, wind, and more wind this winter. Also, it seems that the meteorologists, storm after storm, have talked about how big each storm has been, i.e, how wide an area was covered.
Happy Birthday, again.
Aunt Kitty
“Up north” in Aunt Kitty’s case is Connecticut, btw. And yes, she is really my aunt, by marriage. Thanks for the card in the mail today, and what was inside!
You’re welcome. Take care,