Windy today; a few snowflakes Wed.
A reminder that this is Tornado Preparedness Day in Virginia.
Today’s weather will get windy behind a cold front, but not necessarily all that cold, depending on how much warming your location gets from winds blowing down the Appalachian slopes and in-and-out sunshine. Most places look to warm into at least the 50s, and some low 60s won’t be out of the question south and east of Roanoke. But the reality of the cold front hits overnight and Wednesday, with lows in the 20s and 30s areawide, and even some snow showers, both from upslope flow over the western side of the mountains and some weak disturbancs moving through. Highs may not top 40 west of Roanoke on Wednesday and likely will be 40s to at best some low 50s areawide on Thursday.
Looking ahead, it appears we will be on something of a roller-coaster ride, though not as steep as some we’ve seen earlier this year. High temperatures will bounce back into the 50s to low 60s by Friday and Saturday, 
before another cold front slides through. Late in the weekend and early next week, there may be some moisture overrunning the colder air at the surface, and then perhaps a stronger low pressure system to deal with. At this time, it appears the major threat of any frozen precipitation with the overrunning moisture will be mostly north of our region, and guidance is beginning to gather more for a Ohio Valley-Great Lakes track for the stronger low rather than up the East Coast (though the inland low may transfer energy to a coastal low north of our latitude, as implied by Weather Prediction Center best-guess weather map for next Tuesday at left). All subject to change, of course, but it is looking doubtful there will be a large-scale winter storm in our region early next week. In any event, it appears there’s a good chance that the arrival of astronomical spring will be greeted with a push of Arctic chill mid to late next week.
March 12, 2013 - 9:05 AM
RSS feed 
Rainfall totals from last night:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201303121300-KRNK-NOUS41-PNSRNK
Temps have not recovered much here is Washington Co today. Took my pm walk and it was 42 on the bank thermometer. Snow showers in store for tonight and highs will probably not top 40 tomorrow. Why is it when you want snow, its warm and when you want warm, it snows. Us humans, we are never happy but we are really good at one thing – complaining. Have a good day all.
Don’t know if thars any truth in it, but heard that B’Burg junkyard dog is hongry and his favorite snack is snow meters.
He can have mine. It doesn’t work anyway.
Maybe it’ll give him heartburn KM.
Well, none of us can always “Get what we want” when it comes to weather, Michael H. But I was wrong in my pessimistic outlook for Roanoke rainfall last night (but I had company, namely Channels 7 and 13) and am VERY HAPPY about it. Just emptied another 0.20 out of the gauge now which fell after 6:20 this morning. So my total was somewhere in the 0.80 to 0.85 range, a bit under what the Sugar Loaf Mntn gauge measured at 0.96.
Took a walk this PM at the Little Blonde Man’s favorite “dog park,” Garst Mill Park. The creek that runs through it was bubbling along in fine shape.
My forsythia are STILL asleep. At this rate they are going to come close to challenging their latest blooming of March 22nd, 2010 (the only year that they blossomed in astronomical spring). They are showing itsy buds, but not one sign of yellow. And I seriously doubt that they will be making any progress tomorrow or Thursday, either. When they finally decided to come out 3 years ago, they were gorgeous from all that snow and rain that winter. This is going to be another excellent year for them.
Hey, Leo Lady, please send me an e-mail. I would like to “talk” to you about dogs. Thanks!
After a high of 58 with heavy rain in the morning,the cold front came through and now its back down to 41.Enjoyed the warm temps this past weekend.Me and my wife walked 3 days in the park for some much needed exercise.It felt great outside! Bring on the warm temps and spring.I`m ready for baseball season and watching the Nationals & Orioles on T.V.
The hits just keep on coming. TWC is forecasting cold highs of 46 for Roanoke and 40 for Bburg tomorrow. Peak sustained winds of 19 in both cities. Those temps are the normal high temps for Roanoke (46*, that is) for January 18-30, and the forecasted 40* for Hokieburg is 1 degree COLDER than their lowest normal high temps in the first half of January. And only a few degrees warmer on Thursday, from what I have seen.
I just looked at the AO Arctic Oscillation outlook, and could not believe my eyes!! Take a look at the top graph of the ensemble outlook!! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Widespread agreement that the AO will turn into a submarine doing an emergency dive after Sunday. It is already about -2, will bump up briefly to -1, then the dive to at least -4 by a week from now, if it verifies. One model takes it to -6!!!
I have looked back through the daily history of the AO (and NAO) before, and such negative levels are VERY rare. This does not ensure a snowstorm for us or even the eastern USA, but somebody somewhere (it might even be on the other side of the North Pole, in the eastern hemisphere) is guaranteed to get extremely cold.
That big cold snap might happen in the western half of the USA, not the East. Some consensus now that the PNA is going to also go negative about the same time that the AO dives.
In fact, the 8-14 day CPC outlook does show the western states being in a high likelihood of being cold.
Big winter storm happening in northwestern Europe.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/heavy-snow-halts-travel-in-northwestern-europe-photos/2013/03/12/54a3362e-8b48-11e2-9f54-f3fdd70acad2_blog.html#pagebreak
Thought something was wrong with the blog. Only one approved comment for the majority of the day, and it was Kev’s number one comment. NWS had a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the day, with no elaboration on it (must have been the Tornado drill..who knows..) Planning on another Snowshoe trip Tuesday or Wednesday depending on the upslope machine. One last snow fix for the year!
What is going on with the sudden news of sinkholes? There was that huge one in Florida back in Feb. that swallowed a house and killed a man, then there was one in eastern Penn. Today a golfer in Illinois (east of Saint Louis) fell into a 18-foot deep sinkhole and dislocated his shoulder, but was pulled to safety by one of his golfing buddies. And on the link to the Capital Gang article that KM just linked about the big snowstorm in France and NW Europe, there is a blurb that a “Sinkhole closes Adams Morgan Street.” Is SW Virginia next?