Today’s weather will get windy behind a cold front, but not necessarily all that cold, depending on how much warming your location gets from winds blowing down the Appalachian slopes and in-and-out sunshine. Most places look to warm into at least the 50s, and some low 60s won’t be out of the question south and east of Roanoke. But the reality of the cold front hits overnight and Wednesday, with lows in the 20s and 30s areawide, and even some snow showers, both from upslope flow over the western side of the mountains and some weak disturbancs moving through. Highs may not top 40 west of Roanoke on Wednesday and likely will be 40s to at best some low 50s areawide on Thursday.
Looking ahead, it appears we will be on something of a roller-coaster ride, though not as steep as some we’ve seen earlier this year. High temperatures will bounce back into the 50s to low 60s by Friday and Saturday, before another cold front slides through. Late in the weekend and early next week, there may be some moisture overrunning the colder air at the surface, and then perhaps a stronger low pressure system to deal with. At this time, it appears the major threat of any frozen precipitation with the overrunning moisture will be mostly north of our region, and guidance is beginning to gather more for a Ohio Valley-Great Lakes track for the stronger low rather than up the East Coast (though the inland low may transfer energy to a coastal low north of our latitude, as implied by Weather Prediction Center best-guess weather map for next Tuesday at left). All subject to change, of course, but it is looking doubtful there will be a large-scale winter storm in our region early next week. In any event, it appears there’s a good chance that the arrival of astronomical spring will be greeted with a push of Arctic chill mid to late next week.