Severe weather reports continue to trickle in from some the Mid-Atlantic states this evening, with a few tornado reports in Maryland, eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina (and one in Kentucky) and several wind damage reports, including a couple from Bedford County. The severe weather threat has ended for Southwest Virginia this evening — overnight, a few showers and storms may drift in from Kentucky and West Virginia as the “cold” front pushes through, but those have already weakened quite a bit even by this early evening writing.
I put “cold” front in quotes because this is going to be one of those situations where the drier air behind the front will end up helping it get hotter during the afternoons the next couple days — widespread 80s, maybe some low 90s on Wednesday. Tuesday is likely to be mostly dry, though a few scattered afternoon showers and storms are possible on Wednesday with a little more moisture working in. A low and cold front approaching from the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday will carry the potential for a cluster of showers and storms to move southeastward into our region. Exactly what form that will take and how severe it will be will depend on a lot of specific factors not capable of being forecast 3 days ahead of time. Storm clusters moving southeast from the Ohio Valley into our region are a pretty typical summer event. Indeed, we may see more more than one of these situations over the next couple of weeks as a “ring of fire” pattern develops with strong, hot, dry high pressure in the Southern Plains and systems rotating around it on the north and east sides.