UPDATE 11:20 PM: Sunshine peeking out at times in Roanoke Valley and surrounding areas will increase destabilization of atmosphere and heighten severe storm risk later this afternoon. END UPDATE
An approaching cold front into a juicy atmosphere means additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on this Monday. There is the potential for locally heavy rain in a short time on a very saturated ground, and that could result in flash flooding, so a flash flood watch is out today and tonight. An additional risk today, especially east of the Blue Ridge, will be severe storms. The fact that the sun is unlikely to come out today through the thick clouds will limit the threat, not allowing much surface warming and destabilization of the air aloft. But almost every other factor is present — strong lift with the approaching front, thick moisture, shearing winds aloft (changing speed and direction with height) — to promote severe thunderstorms, potentially rotating and becoming supercells. I would not be surprised if there is a tornado or two in central or eastern Virginia today — in our part of the state, localized strong wind gusts will be the biggest storm threat. We can be thankful for a solidly cloudy, rainy Monday if it quells the severe threat, though it will make for yet another gloomy, soupy day.
The front pushes all the wetness out by Tuesday and we get a couple of days of warm, sunny weather before another rain/storm threat with the next front about Thursday or so.