UPDATED 11:15 PM, 6/17: Showers/storms were more scattered on Monday than late Sunday — but where they fell, they were intense. Expect to see greater coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday, with some locally heavy rain possible. END UPDATE
It’s raining (and thundering and lightning) again outside my window in southern Roanoke County as I type this, after two nice days this Father Day’s weekend. And there’s more showery weather on the way through at least Tuesday, maybe even leaking a bit into Wednesday. That should come as no surprise in a year running about half a foot or more above normal in rainfall in the Roanoke and New River valleys, and tonight’s showers meaning 12 of the first 16 days of June have had measurable rainfall at the official climate station at Roanoke Regional Airport. That may well go to 14 of 18 or even 15 of 19 in the next 2-3 days, though this isn’t likely to be a period of solid, continuous rain. A series of upper-air impulses will bring rounds of showers and storms, the first having arrived on this Sunday evening, and more moving through in hard-to-time intervals through Monday and Tuesday. By Tuesday, a cold front approaching from the northwest will enhance the rain chances. The Weather Prediction Center, as of early Sunday evening, is showing more than 1.25 inches for most of our region through Wednesday evening. It will likely be a little more splotchy and streaky than the map shows, and some indications are that the heaviest rain will be south of our area (the map actually hints at this — the streak of heavier rain right over Roanoke/New River valleys is partly because of the ongoing Sunday night showers as I type this). Severe storm potential will be dramatically lower than last week’s, with weak wind dynamics aloft, more typical of June, and instability limited by periods of showers and cloud cover. The best chance of getting a few storms with locally damaging winds or some hail would be if one of these impulses moves through after a period of afternoon sunshine.
We’ll dry out by the end of the week, but long term, continue to expect these showery periods every 3 days or so for the next couple of weeks, at least.