UPDATES 10:45 AM, 6/2/:
The warm, dry and stable weather of the last week over Southwest Virginia has been something of a break for me, as I haven’t had to keep a close eye on weather back home as we have been around ballistic severe weather in Kansas and Oklahoma. Some showers and storms popping up on Saturday, however, were the harbinger of better chances of showers and storms by late Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight, as a cold front begins to advance toward the region. Parameters for severe weather are not likely to be anything close to what this system has caused out here where the Hokie Storm Chasers have been, but there will be some chance of storms with gusty winds or hail late Sunday. As of Saturday evening, the Storm Prediction Center has extended its lowest 5% severe threat zone across Southwest Virginia — that doesn’t mean 5 percent chance that severe weather will occur, but a 5% chance that a severe storms (one with 58 mph winds or greater, 1 inch hail or greater, or a tornado) will occur within 25 miles of any given point. Check back with the Storm Prediction Center outlooks linked here for any changes on Sunday. Mostly, this front will bring fairly widespread rain, possibly an inch for some, and cooler temperatures for early to mid next week with highs back down in the 70s. We’ll be watching for the potential of a tropical low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and East Coast late next week.
I’m in Guymon, Okla., with the Hokie Storm Chasers. We visited Palo Duro Canyon and ate at the Big Texan in Amarillo today, typical fun “slow day” activities for us, and will drift northward yet again on Sunday with no storms expected as we set up for increasingly likely severe weather in the Plains on Monday and Tuesday.