Tuesday will mostly continue our recent run of sunny, dry days — a little warmer than previous days, maybe a few showers or storms scattered in the afternoon, especially north of Roanoke, as moisture builds a little bit and the influence of systems to our northwest begins. Wednesday is looking like by far the wettest and potentially stormiest day this week as a disturbance tops the hot, dry high to our west and slides southeast into our region. A series of storm clusters will develop — already two of them moving through the Great Lakes on this Tuesday morning — and start angling more southeast to even south-southeastward. General forecaster confidence is pretty low on exactly when and where these storm clusters arrive, though many models are aiming to bring the first through Southwest Virginia during the morning hours of Wednesday. Coming through at the coolest, most stable part of the 24-hour cycle would reduce any severe weather threat substantially, but there is some chance of new storms or clusters redeveloping if/where/when daytime heating returns after the first cluster goes by. The Weather Prediction Center is painting a stripe of near-1-inch rain totals from the Roanoke Valley north and eastward taking a best guess based on models on where the morning storm cluster will roll … but National Weather Service-Blacksburg notes in its discussion that “confidence in all areas receiving substantial rain is low at this point.” So just be aware that one or more clusters of showers and/or storms are possible on Wednesday, the intensity, coverage and exact location of which are uncertain.
This still does not look like a very rainy last week of meteorological summer, with a return to drier air and lesser chances of showers and storms after Wednesday.