My thanks again to Keith Huffman for posting on the weather blog for a couple of weeks on my baby break. The current weather locally didn’t offer much for Keith to comment about, but glad he had a chance to discuss winter dynamics, his specialty. Baby and mommy are both doing well, and the break was very beneficial for me.
I recall seeing it rain only one time in the entire time I was out — quite a departure from much of summer — but it occurred just at the moment we were transporting baby to a doctor’s appointment. My return to weather blogging appears likely to induce a showery and possibly outright rainy period at times over the next week. First, high pressure that has brought us crisp, fall-like weather the last few days is slipping eastward over the Atlantic, and that will return low-level wind flow increasingly to the southeast and south, drawing moisture inland off the Atlantic and eventually the Gulf of Mexico. We’re already seeing some effects of more easterly flow off the Atlantic with the morning fog and clouds many areas are seeing this morning. The air remains dry at many levels, so this flow will not immediately trigger rain — but chances begin to pick up for afternoon showers and storms from west to east across our region with afternoon heating and terrain effects. By Friday into Saturday, a cold front will be approaching, and some remnant moisture of what was once Hurricane Ingrid in the western Gulf will scoot along ahead of it. That will increase rain chances for Saturday — the weather service has put it in “likely” territory for the first time in September. Amounts near an inch are currently depicted over Southwest Virginia from the Blue Ridge westward over the next 5 days. I would not be surprised to see these projected amounts nudge upward and eastward.
The early days of next week may offer more rain than most forecasts currently show with the possibility of an upper-level trough digging and possibly become stalled or cut off west of us and a winterlike coastal low moving up the Atlantic seaboard. (The GFS depiction at left shows what would be very likely a major snowstorm, were it about 3 months later.) This whole scenario may be further enhanced by some moisture from what may well become Tropical Storm Jerry, meandering in the same general area Ingrid developed.