Going by the numbers, since Kevin’s paternity leave, Roanoke has been 1.3 degrees above normal with a trace of rain. Three days had traces of rain. I’m not saying this was planned, but Kevin and his wife had the child at the perfect time weatherwise with no imminent threats for our region. Looking at the next couple of days, we will continue the remarkable patterns of fair, sunny days and clear, cool nights. We should get back into the 40s tomorrow morning, with some 30s possible in the most sheltered valleys.
The tropics did fire up late last week with the three named systems for a while and Ingrid making landfall in Mexico. If hurricane chasing is of interest to you, www.icyclone.com is a nice site. Josh Morgerman is an experienced storm chaser who has some incredible video of many of the best landfalling ‘canes of the past 10 years. He labeled the just ending chase of Ingrid a bust, as it was downgraded to a tropical storm before landfall and he had minimal pressure drops as they drove towards the “eye” of the storm.
We also still have Humberto meandering in the Atlantic, and he’s about to turn northeast and make the run up the wide alley between North America and Europe. No real signs of tropical development in the next few days.
Following up on some of the winter thoughts I outlined, this winter has no strong telling signatures as of now and with that near normal temperature with slightly below normal snowfall are my current thoughts. I do think one of the three months will average a decent bit below normal, with the other two near or slightly above normal. I’m undecided yet on running with December or January on the colder-than-normal month.
I mentioned the growth of snow cover in Siberia and wanted to drop a link. Here is a Capital Weather Gang interview with Judah Cohen after the data was in last year.
In our region specifically, temps were close to 5 degrees above normal in December and January, near normal in February and 5 degrees below in March. The colder temps really settled in the middle of February and lasted through the first week of April. Restating my thoughts from last week, we had a nice cold stretch but the bulk came in meteorological spring. On one hand, March 6, March 25 and April 4 would have been memorable events here if the dates were Feb 6, February 24 and March 4 — with 3 events regionwide of 6-12 inches. (Even higher amounts to the north and east of Lynchburg on the first event. However, I’m inclined to believe this did not match the other research by Mr. Cohen.
With October on the horizon, we’ve got another shot to see what the data from Siberia shows.