It was a record cold morning in Blacksburg (20, breaking previous 10/26 mark of 22 from 1962) and near-record in Roanoke (27, just above 26 from 1933), with widespread low-mid 20s across Southwest, Western and Southside Virginia and quite a few readings in the teens. There will be no more frost or freeze warnings issued by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg until spring — growing season is over.
High pressure blocking over Greenland isn’t sufficient to hold this Arctic air mass in, so the bulk of it will escape north and east rather than sticking around. That said, there’s no unseasonably warm air mass waiting on its heels to rush in. As the mid-level wind chart at left shows (this is for Monday afternoon, on the GFS model), a “zonal flow” or mostly west-to-east wind flow will be taking hold for several days. This means not all that cold, not all that warm, and little or no rain til the next front makes its way through late in the week or next weekend. We’ll settle back into fairly seasonal temperatures, 30s-40s lows, 60s highs, mostly, maybe pushing into a few low 70s late in the week ahead of the next front. Evidence of the next storm system can be seen in the wider view of this inset map, the colors and circular wind flow in the west near Nevada. This will lead to a strong low pressure system that will track northeastward across the middle part of the country toward the Great Lakes, leading to heavy rain, severe storms and heavy snow in different parts of the Central U.S. Eventually, it will drag a cold front through here, with some preceding rain and possibly thunderstorms possible by Thursday-Saturday time frame, approximately. Some forecast models, particularly today”s Euro, show this fromt maybe followed by another decent shot of cold air by early next week or so, and there are some signals of a substantial warmup later in early November. So our leveling-off weather pattern this week may lead to more of a roller-coaster.