Episode of “WeatherBrains” I appeared on Monday night linked here. I was asked a lot about the rise of Weather Journal and covering weather for print and online. (It can also be found on YouTube as WeatherBrains 401, thanks Indian Valley John for the tip on that, as well as on the WeatherBrains main web site.)
The 2013 trend of fashionably late seasons will continue this week with October beginning with temperatures more akin to early or late summer. High pressure building over the Southeast U.S. will put us firmly in unseasonably warm, dry weather much of the week, with high temperatures running about 6 to 12 degrees above normal in Southwest Virginia. Blacksburg’s normal high for Oct. 1 is 70 degree but dips to the upper 60s the rest of the week, while Roanoke’s normal is in the low 70s. Highs on this Tuesday in the mid 70s to lower 80s are likely, and Wednesday may end up being the warmest day of the week with some mid 80s from Roanoke south and east (inset map at left) as upper-level high pressure positions overhead and a weak downslope northwesterly flow compresses and dries out the air and adds a hint to the warming. (Yes, it can be confusing, but in our region, northwesterly winds often lead to hotter air under some circumstances — big example is June 29, 2012 — while bringing cold air from Canada in others.) The high pressure ridge will likely reposition to our south much of the rest of the week but we’ll still be in its grip. It may also serve to significantly retard the advance of a cold front this weekend. The result of that may that we buy a mostly dry and warm Saturday and may not see showers or storms till Sunday or even early next week, and cooler air may not poke in til almost the middle of next week.
We will still keep an eye on the system in the Caribbean too, its chances of maturing into a full-fledged tropical cyclone now updgraded to moderate by the National Hurricane Center. The system or its moisture may become entrained in the approaching cold front/upper-level trough early next week.