A couple of classic early November fall days are on tap today and Tuesday with cold mornings (mid 20s to low 30s were common this morning, maybe 2-3 degrees warmer for Tuesday morning) and highs mostly in the 50s, registering just a bit below normal for most in Southwest Virginia.
Wednesday and Thursday will turn milder (60s highs, 40s lows, mostly) and gradually more moist with southerly winds ahead of the next cold front, due to arrive on Thursday, with a chance of showers. This front will zip through before Friday, but it is expected to be neither as windy nor as cold as the last front was. The key to the weather pattern over the next 10 days to 2 weeks or so is that Arctic air is expected to remain bottled up in Canada and, when it does leak southward, it will likely do so more into the Western U.S. rather than the East. Without these Arctic pushes, cold fronts every 3-7 days or so will bring a brief retreat to cold morning temperatures and cool highs, with quick recovery to milder weather afterward. We may or may not see a run of truly warm days, that’s unclear at this point, but mild weather appears to be the likely trend in November especially as we move beyond this week.