A short update: We still seem to be on track for a significant ice event on Sunday and Sunday evening. Forecast models this evening lead me to believe the most serious threat of icing may well be afternoon into evening, rather than morning when precipitation is likely to be more showery in nature and more mixed with sleet. The cold-air-damming wedge will likely be even more established by afternoon and early evening, so a later arrival of some of the heavier precipitation will not reduce the ice threat, and might even increase it, with more precipitation arriving with a firmly established cold-air-damming wedge. So … DO NOT think that just because it doesn’t seem all that bad in the morning (if in fact it doesn’t), it has missed us. We won’t know that until much later. 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice accretion still seems like a reasonable widespread expectation based on guidance, but there may be pockets of more (especially north and west of Roanoke) and less (especially south and east of Roanoke — and maybe the urban core of Roanoke itself). Even as the wedge erodes, temperatures will be stubborn to rise above freezing, perhaps not even until sunrise Monday or a little later in some spots.
We’re almost to nowcasting/storm mode time. A few reminders — remember if you post weather observations to tell us where you are located (a city, town or portion of county is fine) and preferably what elevation, if you know. Saying “It’s sleeting hard!” doesn’t help much if we don’t know where you are. Also, try to keep comments fairly short and to the point, as it can get quite frenzied with many posts as inclement weather develops. I also ask that comments be weather-oriented during these times — we relax that a lot when weather is slow. And, as always, no foul language, no name-calling, no disrespect of others, and no politics. Try to remember that just because the storm may not be doing what you expect at your house doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem for other people viewing the board. (An ice storm in particular can be 33 degrees and rain at one spot and 31 with heavy ice a few miles away or a couple hundred feet higher). I probably will not be able to answer all questions and definitely will not be able to answer all place-specific forecast requests. (i.e. How much ice for XYXtown?) There also will be some periods of little activity on the blog — got to rest and tend to children sometime.
Thanks again for your continued support of Weather Journal.