Sunday should be pretty much a repeat of Saturday … sunny, dry and maybe just a hair warmer, especially in locations west of Roanoke that didn’t make 70 on Saturday. Get out and enjoy it if you can.
The little low-pressure system show offshore on the Weather Prediction Center map for Tuesday morning is going to help keep the coming days from being another runaway summerlike warmup. This low tracking along the Gulf Coast and off the Southeast Coast is expected to absolutely soak some of that region. We’ll likely be too far north for much in the way of significant rain, but it may turn winds just enough to the east on Monday, maybe some of Tuesday too, for a bit of a wedge-like effect, with cooler, damp air banking against the mountains. We probably won’t see 70 and some places may not see 60 on Monday, with some showers or drizzle possible as moisture is lifted up the Piedmont and Blue Ridge. Fanning out to the larger weather map for Tuesday morning, another feature that may be very important this week is the high pressure system depicted off the Northeast coast. As this high moves more out to sea, its clockwise flow will keep some easterly and southeasterly winds into our region through the week. This is different than last week’s dry southwesterly flow that allowed a quick shoot to July-like average temperatures. Thinking about summer for a moment, we know that, generally, our hottest, driest weather challenging 100 degrees generally comes from the west, but our long stretches of sultry humid days in the upper 80s and low 90s leak in from the south and southeast. As the week progresses, this offshore high may mean our temperatures are not as hot as last week — perhaps some low to mid 80s from Roanoke southward and eastward by Wednesday — but it will be more sticky.
From this distance, I think the late week cold front will have more volatile potential for severe storms in and near our region than last week’s, because of the higher humidity providing more fuel and southeast winds producing low-level shear ahead of it. Friday would seem to be the best shot at this now, but perhaps some storms as early as Thursday, and at least some chance it bleeds into Saturday if the front slows. Whenever the front goes through, it will provide a pretty stiff cold shot, with some sub-freezing morning lows possible by late next weekend and early the following week.