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UPDATE 6:30 AM, 5/23: Not much reason to renew this post entirely, as Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be very similar to Monday and Tuesday, with scattered showers and storms developing as the day heats up. This will be the case until an upper-level low over the Carolinas finally moves northeast away from us late in the week. The good news for anyone with Memorial Day weekend plans is that it looks to be much drier overall — maybe a  slight chance of some scattered afternoon showers and storms — and definitely hotter, with some low 90s quite possible. END UPDATE

It’s following me home! After reaching Blacksburg and working for a while to strip the equipment off three vehicles we used in the first round of the Virginia Tech storm chase, storms began to develop over the Blacksburg/Christiansburg area and followed me toward Roanoke through Shawsville and Elliston (I too the U.S. 11 route so I could pull off a few times, observe and photograph more easily). The photo at left was from between those two towns — here’s a bigger version. Storms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, some gusty winds and small hail occurred across parts of Southwest Virginia this afternoon and evening, and will slowly dwindle overnight. The thick moisture, however, will linger, and the approach of a cold front (the same front that fired storms we chased in Nebraska on Saturday — I’ll have more details on that at some point as we prepare for the second trip next week) and daytime heating will again squeeze out numerous showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon. Locally heavy rain from slow-moving storms will be the main concern, but some strong winds and hail are also possible. Wednesday and possibly Thursday look showery/stormy too, before a high-pressure ridge starts pushing us more toward warm, drier weather by the weekend.

I will start taking entries for the annual SUMMER FORECAST CONTEST now through May 31. Email weather@roanoke.com with your name, your location of residence (city, town or part of county), and 2 guesses: Roanoke’s highest temperature, and the date on which it will occur between June 1 and August 31.  As a matter of reference, every year on record since the late 1940s had had a highest temperature between 91 and 105. I will put out some more reminders on this.

HAYS, Kan. — We didn’t have storms to chase on Friday, so we visited an unusual geological formation instead — the Monument Rocks in western Kansas. The erosional remnant rocks rise 60-80 feet  from an ancient river bed in the Plains, quite a stunning site amid the cattle ranges and gas wells that dominate that part of Kansas. It was a beautiful day for sightseeing — but of course, that is the problem when you’re out here to see storms. Those are  expected to pick up on Saturday, when a cold front and associated jet stream trough dig into the Kansas-Nebraska area. Moisture is a bit shallow, the wind fields are not all that strong, and warm air aloft may be too strong for convection to overcome, especially the farther south we may go. It will be up to the student chasers to figure out the specifics of the pattern on Saturday morning to determine where we need to go for the best chance of seeing a supercell or possibly even a tornado. This is the last, best chance for the first round of the Hokie Storm Chase … with no more severe weather events expected in the window of time set aside for the first trip, we plan to start heading back on Sunday. A second group will be preparing to head to the Plains next week.

Southwest Virginia’s weekend looks beautifully sunny, but a westward-moving low off the Atlantic may spread some showers by early the coming week — about the time we arrive home from the first trip.

WaKEENEY, Kan. — Supercells and tornadoes are the first priority of any storm chase in the Great Plains. They occur with much more regularity and usually more intensity here than in the Appalachians, and of course, are more visible due to the lack of tall ridges and trees.  That’s why we come out here. But when they’re not happening, other kinds of storms are capable of providing a memorable experience for students who have never experienced a Plains storm.  Thursday afternoon provided just such an opportunity, as we were successful in planting ourselves right where one of many high-based, pulse-type storms collapsed into a outflow that spread Kansas dust all around us. We clocked winds as high as 55 mph, just short of severe level of 58 mph, and may have had a few higher gusts. The winds kept going for about 20 minutes, only splattering a little rain, as dry air between the high storm bases and the surface evaporated much of the precipitation.

We ended up in WaKeeney, Kansas, for the evening, a familiar setting for Virginia Tech storm chasers over the years, with numerous tornado intercepts very near here in 2007 and especially 2008. We expect a few storms to develop near the Kansas-Colorado border today, perhaps in similar fashion as Thursday. Saturday appears to be the one and only big shot at supercells for this first trip, over central Kansas, most likely. After that, we’ll start working home, and prepare for a second trip that may start a few days earlier than planned to try and catch a potentially more conducive severe weather pattern developing late next week.

A few strong to severe pulse storms also affected Southwest Virginia on Thursday. Some of the students were getting the warnings on their smartphones as we drove toward the northwest Kansas storms. A few more storms may occur today, perhaps a bit farther to the southwest, but the overall pattern is leaning for generally nice weather the next few days in Southwest Virginia.

YORK, Nebraska — Contrary to what you may have seen on TV, tornadoes don’t drop out of the sky left and right in a timely manner when storm chasers are around. Finding supercells and locating to observe and track them effectively can be challenging even in the most ballistic severe weather pattern, let alone one that is far less so. The next few days present such a pattern for the first of two Virginia Tech storm chase teams. Pieces of puzzle are coming together, particularly over the weekend, for severe weather potential in the northern Plains states (think Nebraska and the Dakotas). But none of those pieces is shaped perfectly to fit with the others. Gulf moisture is returning northward, recovering after the big upper-low that drenched much of Virginia helped sweep it away from the central U.S., but it is returning in a much weaker manner than is common in mid May.  Upper-level winds are starting to pick up as a trough, or dip in the jet stream, begins to dig southward and eastward, but those winds are gradually weakening as the trough moves eastward. And while there is plenty of warmth at the surface to bubble moisture upward, it will be capped by similarly warm air aloft in many places, preventing the warm air from rising into cold air high in the sky for tall cumulonimbus clouds to build into storms. But these imperfect pieces are starting to align, and are likely to yield some level of severe weather, particularly Friday and Saturday. Exactly where and when is something our student chasers must unravel. And while the overall pattern is unlikely to yield a widespread severe weather outbreak, at least as we see it now, there will be probably be localized areas of enhanced spin that could produce a few, maybe just 1 or 2, rotating storms known as supercells, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Finding those is what we’re out here to do .

We’re in York, Nebraska, after a 2-day drive from Blacksburg. Some storms are possible on Thursday, in Nebraska or one of its bordering states, but any activity will likely be scattered and probably not severe or only marginally so.

Looks like some nice weather has settled into Southwest Virginia for a few days after Monday’s floods.

Roanoke Times report on Franklin County flooding

For most of the next 4 weeks, my attention will  largely be turned elsewhere other than Southwest Virginia weather. I’ll be keeping an eye on the weather back home (which today does include a good chance of more heavy rain showers and some thunderstorms developing – after several reports of flooding with excessive rains in Franklin County on Monday night), and may post about it from time to time, especially if there is something especially noteworthy, but most of my days will be spent driving a van full of Virginia Tech student storm chasers. So I may not be timely or detailed on local weather. I’m sure the community of commenters can and will fill in some of that gap — and of course there are links to the National Weather Service forecast and to the Radar / Future Cast on this blog site.

This is the eighth consecutive year I will be on board what has become known as the “Hokie Storm Chase.” I started in 2005 as a journalist and photographer “embedded” in the chase trip  for an award-winning series we called “Chasing the Wind.”  I was invited back  as a volunteer co-leader from 2006-11. This year, I am serving in an adjunct instructor capacity on back-to-back trips, the first starting Tuesday morning and continuing until Thursday, May 24, or so. The second will begin a few days later, depending on the pattern, and continue until no later than June 10.

This is a for-credit college field course for VT meteorology and geography students, and we will be gathering data via mobile mesonets, or weather instruments attached to the top of 3 vehicles (2 for the second trip). Many aspects of the journey can be a “fun” road trip, as we roll through Plains towns and countryside whose people are almost unfailingly extremely welcoming to us, but it is a serious endeavor focused on severe weather. Though certainly every student wants to see one, and we will put ourselves in the best position possible to safely view one, a tornado is not necessary for the trip to be worthwhile or successful. Some of our best storm intercepts over the years have not included tornadoes. We are looking for supercells, thunderstorms with strong rotating updrafts. Sometimes they produce tornadoes; sometimes not. The forecasting and observational experience the students get in this real-life laboratory as big as the heart of America is the most valuable aspect of the trip.

Each year I struggle with how to cover this on the blog. Since I’ve been doing it so long now, it seems a bit old and overexposed, so I did much less with it last year. But each year, I find folks interested in what we’re doing and where we’re going. I will try to post a short item, perhaps a photo, on most days I am out, but the timing will be rather erratic and I may have to skip a day or two now and then just out of simple exhaustion.

My Twitter account — @kevinmyattwx — will have a bit more frequent updates — you can follow that in the right margin of this blog even if you are not on Twitter yourself.  The official Hokie Storm Chase online sites include hokiestormchase.wordpress.org (blog and website), @hokiestorm on Twitter, and the Hokie Storm Chasers page on Facebook. Two Twitter handles that will have much more frequent updates than mine — because they won’t be driving — are from returning chasers Dan Goff (@WxDan) and Kathryn Prociv (@KathrynProciv).

Checking in on the Virginia Tech storm chasers (blog linked here) — they had what is known as a “cap bust” on Wednesday in Oklahoma, waiting on storms to develop, but updrafts were insufficient to push through a layer of warm air aloft. The Storm Prediction Center even issued a tornado watch, only to pull it down entirely long before it was due to expire. Stakes are likely to be raised on Thursday with a higher end severe weather situation possibly developing in the general region of Kansas and Oklahoma. For a look at the trip through the eyes of a first-time chaser, check out Dan Goff’s blog on the RVA News site out of Richmond.  Oh, and here’s the link to the article I wrote earlier this week about Kathryn Prociv, on the trip currently, who is doing research into tornadoes occurring in the mountains.

Back home, the shower dwindling will continue today (Thursday), as the upper low pulls farther away to the north and its circulation draws drier air into Southwest Virginia. There still will probably be a few showers and storms today, but fewer than Wednesday, and fewer still (and maybe none) by Friday.  Saturday is still looking like a sunny, warm and dry day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday could be similar, though perhaps a slight risk of some afternoon thunderstorms.

Warmer weather definitely appears to be the trend over the next several days as high pressure takes more of a hold on our weather pattern, with more storminess aiming toward the central part of the U.S., where the chasers are now. The Climate Prediction Center is still showing us with wetter than normal weather over the next two weeks, but there is some uncertainty going that far out about whether a new low pressure trough (jet stream dip) will dig into the Southeast or if a Bermuda high pressure system will have more sway and lead to warmer, drier weather.

UPDATE 9:30 AM: Showers and some thunderstorms are affecting the region mostly west of Interstate 81 this morning, though some have made it as far east as the Roanoke Valley. This is associated with a warm front advancing northeastward ahead of the next storm system to affect the area later this week — but some rain has a bit earlier than expected. Locations to the west will have the best chance of rain today, but some showers could continue to make it farther east into the I-81 corridor or perhaps even a bit farther east. You can follow the rain on National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar. END UPDATE

One aspect of the storms in Southwest Virginia late Wednesday/early Thursday that probably hasn’t got enough attention is the big hail that fell in some places. William Stafford of Pearisburg submitted this photo showing the large hailstones that fell there with the supercell storm that rolled north-northeastward through the western New River Valley  – the same storm that spawned the deadly tornado at Glade Spring in Washington County earlier. Hail this large — about 2 inches in diameter, it appears — is very rare in our region. Note the pebbly appearance as the hail often consists of smaller hailstones that have melted into each other and then refrozen as they are carried on multiple trips aloft by strong updraft winds. I’m sure there was quite a bit of damage to windshields and shingles in areas that got attacked by this kind of hail in last week’s storms.

Fortunately, nothing close to this kind of hail or last week’s tornadoes is expected around here this coming week. As of Saturday evening we are not even close to a Storm Prediction Center risk zone, though perhaps some gusty thunderstorms can’t be entirely ruled out Monday or Tuesday — more the typical kind of spring storms we have, not these extreme ones. It also appears the threat of heavier rain may be dwindling this week as the cold front may stall west of us and guide most of the heavier moisture into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, which will be a very bad thing for the epic flooding in that region, with a low pressure system developing along the front a little later than expected. The front is expected to get a solid push through the region Wednesday, and there may be another front 2 or 3 days later which may move through with very limited moisture. A pattern change is upon us. I think we’ll see some really nice spring days in the next couple of weeks.

PORTSMOUTH, Ohio — Tech instructor Dave Carroll treated the entire Virginia Tech storm chase team to a large dinner at the Montgomery Inn in Montgomery, Ohio, just outside Cincinnati tonight. I had ribs and duck. It’s a tradition of his to buy a big meal for the team if we nab at least one tornado. We’re less than 6 hours from home and expect to roll in on Thursday afternoon.

Speaking of rolling … I’ll roll the closing credits with the list of storm chasers. It’s always bittersweet to break up the group after so many days on the road together. But I am ready to be home after a spectacular trip!

Student chasers:
Will Chong
Tom Copenhaver
Michael Lafon
Joe Newman
Stephanie Pilkington
Kathryn Prociv
Kevin Sullivan
Rebecca Vizzi

Returning chasers/student leaders
Andrew Smith (08, 09, 10)
Trevor Owen (08, 10)

Co-leader: Kevin Myatt
Leader/instructor: Dave Carroll

I’ll probably take a few days off from blogging and return by early next week, refocused on Virginia weather.

CORALVILLE, Iowa — As the pattern that has produced supercells and tornadoes for us in the western High Plains slowly unwinds, we are heading east back toward Virginia for the weekend. It’s been an amazing trip that we’ll need quite a while to absorb.

I’ll be fully back on the Virginia weather beat by early next week.

NEW: Video from Monday’s storm chase.

MILLER, S.D. — Over the years in our Virginia Tech storm chases, we’ve seen quite a few tornadoes, but usually it’s a quick look at something kind of vague. Not this year, particularly Monday, when we watched a well-defined and backlit tornado form several miles away from a hilltop perch and then saw it churn across western South Dakota’s vast openness for about 20 minutes. (Here’s another broad-angle view of the entire storm structure, and chaser Andrew Smith getting a photo.) After that we followed the storm northward toward Faith, S.D., as it spawned a few more tornadoes, some of them very large. It’s hard to separate the individual tornadoes, not always knowing for sure when one ended and a new one began, but our best count is that we saw 6 tornadoes with this storm, including some small satellite tornadoes that formed around the larger ones.

Later in the day, we caught up with another supercell to the east just before it spun down, saw damage to massive power transmission towers from the tornado we observed up close on Saturday, and then let the shelf cloud and gust front of a weakening squall line blow over us in eastern South Dakota.

South Dakota has been very good to us, not only with the quality of storm intercepts, but the great people everywhere who have treated us with kindness everywhere we’ve been. No offense to the others, but it’s definitely become our favorite Plains state.

The pattern appears likely to go flat for severe weather over the next few days as high pressure ridging builds over most of the nation east of the Rockies. It is likely we will begin a slow drive home over the next few days as we continue to absorb all that we have experienced.