The heat and the humidity start to buildPosted Jun26, 2008 at 11:33 AMWednesday's high in Roanoke reached 90, the first 90-degree high in nine days, and it'll probably be similarly hot today. Humidity is also building, with the dew point getting close to 60 again. The combination of heat and humidity will start to trigger a few afternoon thundrestorms today and Friday. The bigger threat of storms will occur over the weekend as a cold front approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday. Cool morning, hot afternoonPosted Jun24, 2008 at 10:34 PMAfter widespread morning lows in the 50s, temperatures will likely rebound to about 90 degrees in the Roanoke Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Very dry air has established itself in the area after the weekend front, and this allows for rapid cooling and warming of the air compared to more humid conditions. We could see the low 90s on Thursday and Friday as humidity also slowly builds. After our June 4-10 heat wave, it's only managed to hit 90 in Roanoke twice in the two weeks since. Our last 90-degree day was on June 16. The weekend deserves a little attention for severe thunderstorm potential, as an approaching cold front accompanied by some upper-level cold air and wind dynamics will be moving into building heat and humidity. It's a long way off with a lot of details to work out. Several warm to hot, dry days are likely between now and then. Yes, the hot weather will returnPosted Jun20, 2008 at 02:42 PMThe relatively cool air mass that has settled over us the past few days is slowly moderating. We will probably see highs more in the low to even mid 80s in Roanoke over the weekend into early next week rather than in the 70s. So, with lows around 60, temperatures will be just about where they should be this time of year, maybe a hint cooler. The slightly cooler air will get a little bit of a reinforcement over the weekend, and that could be enough to trigger some thunderstorms as it clashes with somewhat warmer, more humid air over us. (By the way ... Rick Post of Wytheville pointed me to some automated thermometer readings between Rural Retreat and Wytheville in the low 40s each of the last three mornings ... now that's chilly for June!) 
Cooler than normal weather likely to persist into early next weekPosted Jun19, 2008 at 09:57 AMWednesday's low was 53 in Roanoke, 49 in Blacksburg. Roanoke made it at least as low as 56 this morning, while Blacksburg again dipped into the upper 40s, at least as low as 48 at Virginia Tech's airport. Below-normal temperatures are going to continue through early next week. Highs today and Friday may reach the low 80s in Roanoke. The normal high is 83, so that would be no better than normal. By the weekend, a reinforcing shot of cool air is due to arrive from Canada, pushing highs back down into the 70s and lows back into low to mid 50s, with some 40s to the west of Roanoke. The cool pattern will only slowly unwind next week, as more typical June warmth and humidity return. And now, the cool wave beginsPosted Jun17, 2008 at 10:48 AMMost of Monday's bigger storms were farther north. According to some reports, hail covered the ground like snow in areas to the north of Charlottesville, and there were numerous wind damage reports. Here's a listing of Mondayh's severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center. Today's high in the low 80s in Roanoke could well make this the warmest day the rest of the week, with temperatures struggling to make 80 the rest of the week. Enjoy it ... while the unseasonably cool weather is likely to last several days, we all know that torrid summer heat will return sooner or later. A much cooler weather pattern ahead?Posted Jun11, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Getting back to more typical June weatherPosted Jun10, 2008 at 12:58 AMToday, we begin to transition back into more of a typical June pattern ... warm to hot, sticky days with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms have fired each of the past three days, a few of which have even been severe with damaging winds and penny- to quarter-sized hail. With moisture returning and hot high pressure slowly moving away, allowing a cold front to edge closer, we'll see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity the next few days. Today may still quite hot, with highs 90-95 likely, but we should be back in the 80s by Wednesday and for the remainder of the week. The record heat appears to be over for a while, but humid days are still here for some time. On tap next: A heat wavePosted Jun05, 2008 at 10:13 AMNow that Roanoke's first confirmed tornado in 34 years is in the books, the weather scene is about to move to the verge of some history on a different account. Strong high pressure is building in, and this will give us several days of extreme heat for early June. We're talking mid to upper 90s in Roanoke now through at least the middle of next week. Record highs for each of those dates are, well, in the mid to upper 90s, all dating to the time period between 1914-1939. Blacksburg's daily records in the upper 80s and low 90s are likely in jeapordy as well. 100 degrees in Roanoke? It's not impossible we could scrape the century mark a day or two, and I thoroughly expect somewhere like Martinsville or Danville to have a 100-degree day before the middle of next week. Roanoke's earliest 100-degree on record was June 3, 1936, so that record can't be touched ... but the second earliest wasn't until June 20 in 1931. The only thing that could break that heat on a given day would be an isolated thunderstorm, more likely over the mountain ridges to our west. Courtesy of the National Weather Service, here are the daily records for Roanoke and Blacksburg for the next six days: ROANOKE
Summerlike weather is on the wayPosted Jun03, 2008 at 12:30 AM
Is it doing the Southwest Virginia split?Posted May11, 2008 at 06:33 AM
Another element of this storm: The potential for strong winds. A high wind watch is in effect for many counties tonight and Monday, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. Click here for the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. I'm about to hit the road for Storm Chase 2008, but I'll keep tabs on Southwest Virginia weather along the way, as well. Round 2: More rain, probably not many severe stormsPosted May10, 2008 at 11:35 AM
For Storm Chase Trip 2008 ... it means we may be headed through some heavy rain in the morning on the way out, and we may look for the possibility of some stronger storms as we enter eastern Tennessee late in the morning. Some heavy rain possible tonightPosted May08, 2008 at 12:46 PMThe timing on the first in a series of storms will likely bring rain, some of it heavy, into the area overnight, with scattered showers during the day today and again on Friday. Here is the latest rainfall forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, showing widespread rain amounts of an inch or more in a strip along the Blue Ridge and then northeast to the D.C. area. Repeated spring rains appear to be on the wayPosted May07, 2008 at 08:17 PMVery similar low pressure systems, following similar paths, are likely to bring rain to Southwest Virginia on Friday, again Sunday, and then possibly again around the middle of next week. A lot will depend on the exact paths each system will take. Currently, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting the axis of heaviest rain to be generally north of us for the first two systems through Monday. But this is all subject to change as the forecast models try to pinpoint the movement and strength of each system. Heavy rain episode late this weekend?Posted May06, 2008 at 03:23 PMThis is in the "file it away and think about it later if it happens" category, but the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center makes a statement in its afternoon medium-range forecast discussion that should at least get your attention, however subject to change it might be: A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. The "cyclone" in question refers to a strong low-pressure system that many computer models are developing somewhere over the eastern U.S. about Sunday. That's about as specific as it gets right now. If this forecast were a stock option, I wouldn't buy it now, but it is something worth considering as we get closer to the weekend to see how it develops. Some thunderstorms coming, but nothing like to the westPosted May02, 2008 at 11:37 PMIt's been a violent couple of days in what has been a winter and spring of violent weather. At least 7 died in Arkansas, as it and several sounding states were mauled by severe weather. Wind, hail and tornadoes slammed the central U.S. on Thursday and again on Friday. The same cold front that caused this outbreak will be headed our way Saturday night, but it will have less moisture and instability to work with. A thin line of storms is expected to develop to our west and move our way. Whether all, part or none of the line will survive east of the mountains is very much in question. In any event, after a warm Saturday with a good amount of sunshine, don't expect a long drenching rain or the kind of tornado outbreak that either southeast Virginia or Arkansas have experienced this week. While some severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out, we are unlikely to see anything more than a random gust or two, and the front looks to pass quickly and leave Sunday as another sunny, pretty warm day (70s on Sunday, as opposed to near 80 on Saturday). Cold mornings giving way to a couple of warm afternoonsPosted Apr30, 2008 at 06:18 PMThere was no freeze in Roanoke this morning, where the temperature officially fell only to 37, but many surrounding areas did experience freezing temperatures on this last day of April. May is going to start with a couple days warmup (70s, maybe low 80s) before a new cold front brings a chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday. This is not as strong a cold front as the one early in the week, so we will probably not get as much heavy rain, the temperatures after it will not be as cold as they were this morning, and hopefully no one will experience the tornadoes that southeast Virginia got with the last system. First, rain and storms; then, cold temperaturesPosted Apr26, 2008 at 08:15 PMAfter a few rumblers that kicked out some hail and gusty winds, but mostly just heavy rain and lightning, there will be a little break on Sunday, before the stronger front begins pushing through Sunday night into Monday. This will not be last week's meandering, in-a-hurry-to-get-nowhere low pressure system that spun out showers for 4 days ... this one means business and will push through with gusto Monday night. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially on Monday. 
So a chance of strong thunderstorms, then chilly temperatures. What a way to close April. Follow the flip-flopping frontsPosted Apr26, 2008 at 11:04 AMToday a weak cold front will begrudgingly move through the area. On Sunday, that same front will move back through as a warm front, having got stuck in North Carolina. On Monday, a strong cold front will push through and sweep all this mess out. The result will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday, and a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday. Then, some unseasonably cold weather will set in for a couple of mornings -- maybe some frost in the deeper valleys. The Hydrometoerological Prediction Center is suggesting we might get about 2 inches of rain out of all this over the next 5 days, nearly all of which would fall over the next 3 days. If that is true, and we start getting rains like that fairly regularly, we could start to take some bites out of the long-term drought. But I'm a little skeptical that we'll get quite that much rain. Another showery weekend?Posted Apr24, 2008 at 11:42 PMToday should be a warm, dry day ... but there will be chances of showers and storms the next 4 days as a variety of fronts and disturbances move through, none of which look extreme. So we probably won't get enough rain to make a dent in the drought, but neither will the weekend be an entirely dry one for outdoor activities. Potentially, a bummer for everybody. A thunderstorm or two slipping in the backdoor?Posted Apr24, 2008 at 08:24 AMA weak cold front slipping to the south near or into our area today -- a so-called "backdoor" cold front -- might be enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two as it interacts with the warm air in place. This front will not be strong enough to make major changes in our weather, as it will either wash out or retreat, but might provide a boundary for a few showers or storms to fire in the afternoon heating. More significant cold fronts will be headed into our area from the more typical westerly direction Saturday and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center is even projecting a signficant severe weather risk just east of us for Monday. Well, let's try again to get the sun outPosted Apr22, 2008 at 11:13 PMAfter three days of cool, damp weather from a persistent (somebody got on to me for saying pesky, though it may fit by now) low pressure system wandering around aimlessly along the coast, maybe today will finally offer some longer breaks of sun as the low moves farther away. This low has been frustrating by keeping dank, drizzly, showery weather in place while not producing enough rain to really do anything for the drought. Thursday and Friday look dry and warmer, but we'll just have to see how fast the wedge gets broken as to whether today will be any different than the last three have been. Still a few showers, but winding downPosted Apr21, 2008 at 06:49 PMThe persistent upper-level low and its surface reflection are slowly moving southeast away from us, and the effects from the system will gradually diminish overnight into Tuesday. Still, the northeast wind whirling around it will push Atlantic moisture against the Blue Ridge overnight, and there could be some showers or light drizzle, which could even hang onto into the morning hours on Tuesday. Amounts will be likely be light, as the bulk of moisture, atmospheric wind shear and instability will be drifting farther south. An unusual spin on the showers moving throughPosted Apr20, 2008 at 11:21 PMRain has been moving into the Roanoke Valley area from an unusual direction tonight ... from the east and northeast. It's because the center of the upper-level low has shifted southeast of the area, and the spin around it is bringing in the moisture. Expect to see showers and some storms moving in from a similar direction at times overnight into Monday, though showers should slowly dwindle as time goes along. A few showers might linger into early Tuesday before the low moves far enough east for its effects to drift away. Band of rain pushing toward Southwest VirginiaPosted Apr19, 2008 at 01:02 AMA band of rain is moving across Tennessee and Kentucky overnight ahead of a slow-moving low-pressure system and cold front, and should arrive in western Virginia in some form during this afternoon or evening, a little faster than earlier forecasts. The Storm Prediction Center even thinks there may be enough daytime heating, leading to instability, plus enough winds aloft for a small chance of severe-level thunderstorm winds (58 mph or greater) and hail (3/4 inch or more). The 5 percent threat on the map indicates a 5 percent chance that such winds or hail will occur within 30 miles of any given location. It's looking more like half-inch type rain rather than widespread rains of an inch or more, but the showers could linger well into Sunday. Rainy period ahead?Posted Apr17, 2008 at 11:08 PM
Cold snap should end by Wednesday afternoonPosted Apr13, 2008 at 11:33 PMTemperatures will be noticeably chilly, relative to this time of year, through Wednesday morning. But with record lows for this time of year generally running in the mid 20s for Roanoke and the lower 20s for the New River Valley, this should not be anything historic. The best chance of a widespread freeze will come Wednesday morning, when clear skies and calm winds may allow temperautres to fall a few degrees more than the next two cloudy, breezy mornings. Still, this should not be anything like last April, which had four consecutive mornings of temperatures well below freezing and two weeks of off and on chill. A few snow showers are possible in the higher elevations today through Tuesday as weak disturbances continue to move thorugh from the northwest and squeeze out what little moisture there is. Don't expect much with any of these, and the lower elevations may only see sprinkles of rain. Temperatures should start rebounding toward normal by Wednesday afternoon and be decidedly warm by the end of the week. Storms will have hard time getting over the mountainsPosted Apr11, 2008 at 04:42 PM
Big storm system may only give us a glancing blowPosted Apr10, 2008 at 11:17 PM
Interestingly, more precipitation is expected behind the front on Sunday and Monday than is expected by the national experts with the front itself. Some of this precipitation might not be rain, but rather snow, especially in higher elevations. I'm beginning to believe that even the Roanoke Valley could see snow showers late Sunday or early Monday. We'll get a winter encore for a few mornings, with lows near or below freezing Monday and Tuesday. Hope you haven't put out all your plants just yet. Next week: A freeze/frost threatPosted Apr09, 2008 at 04:51 PM
I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of seeing some snowflakes in the air about Sunday or Monday, especially over the higher elevations. The cool, damp wedge is backPosted Apr06, 2008 at 11:09 PMA frequent visitor the last couple of weeks is back: the wedge. High pressure to our northeast is pushing a mass of cool, damp air southwestward against the Appalachian mountains, wedging it in place, if you will. For Monday and possibly into Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday, we'll see low overcast cloudiness, some fog, drizzle, and temperatures struggling to get above 50. We've seen a very similar setup just a week ago on Sunday/Monday March 30-31 and also on Thursday. It does not appear there will be thick enough moisture through all layers of the atmosphere or enough of a triggering mechanism for widespread, significant rain, but rather just enough low-level moisture for peristent, irritating dampness, mainly in the form of drizzle and fog. Long-term, it doesn't look like this weekend's rainfall will be followed up by a wet pattern. A system later in the week appears likely to affect states west of us more than here, as this 5-day rainfall map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is projecting that high pressure will control much of the country over the next 2 weeks, with below-normal precipitation expected over most of the U.S. One more shot at signficant rain overnightPosted Apr05, 2008 at 08:33 AMMost of the rain this morning is staying south and east of the Roanoke and New River valleys. Though we may see a few showers drift through, the better chance of rain comes overnight with a low pressure system moving along the front that is expected to stall just east of us. This is likely to spread some |
