So where does summer go from here?
Posted Jul12, 2008 at 05:42 PM
Using the meteorologically defined June-August as summer -- which is really closer to the Memorial Day-Labor Day or graduation-start of school definitions most people live by than is the late June-late September astronomical summer that calendars use -- we will be at the halfway point of summer this week. Weatherwise, Summer 2008 in Southwest Virginia has been so far been defined by two main occurrences: a heat wave in early June, and unusually frequent and intense rounds of severe thunderstorms.
A cold front will push through the area Sunday night and Monday, and this will likely trigger another round of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. But this round of storms will be relatively quick compared to the multi-day repeating assaults we had June 26-30 and again last week. More importantly, there are signals in computer forecast models that this front could be the end of the line on the moist and relatively mild weather pattern (a few hot days and a few cool ones, but mostly near normal) that has dominated since the heat wave broke on June 11.
The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14-day outlook leans toward warmer than normal temperatures for most of the nation
A large dome of high pressue that has brought some record heat to parts of the West is gradually re-establishing itslef more eastward, into the central U.S. With the high over the West, the jet stream has consistently dipped southeastward over the East, bringing cold fronts and upper-level disturbances that have interacted with warmth and humidity to bring rounds of thunderstorms. A shift eastward of the high will lessen this tendency, though it will still be possible to get a few fronts to slide in for a day or two of storms now and then. In time, the high may expand eastward to cover the East as well, and that could bring above-normal temperatures and dry weather, except whatever afternoon storms the heat can cook up from time to time.
It's a bit early to say whether or not this summer will produce any additional extreme heat waves, but it does appear that after Sunday evening's storms, a drier pattern is returning that will probably become a hot pattern in a few days.
Comments
[July 12, 2008 8:58 PM]
TQ[July 12, 2008 11:38 PM]
Kevin Myatt[July 13, 2008 11:51 PM]
Doug Griggs[July 14, 2008 10:58 AM]
Kevin Myatt