The Roanoke Times: Weather Journal

Warmth about to give way to prolonged cooler period

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 20:55:10 -0500

Say goodbye to the 80s for highs -- quite possibly for the remainder of 2008. Colder weather is on the way with the arrival of a cold front overnight and another one next week, and it looks like cool weather may hang on for a while. The Climate Prediction Center gives Virginia and neighboring states a good chance of below normal temperatures through the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day periods. Also, interestingly, it rates our chances of above-normal precipitation similarly through the next two weeks, though from here it looks to me like mostly dry frontal passages. We need every drop we can get -- many areas west and southwest of Roanoke, including the New River Valley, were upgraded to severe drought today on the new U.S. Drought Monitor map.

It still remains to be seen exactly how cold we'll get next week, but it will probably be enough for some frost.

On an unrelated note ... we're going to be in the middle of a software change the next few days, so don't be surprised if you see this blog with a different format and missing graphic elements from time to time during the switch.

Hurricane, coastal storm not likely to threaten us

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:36:27 -0500

Hurricane Omar has developed in the Caribbean. In a typical August or September atmospheric pattern, it would automatically be presumed that there would be at least a moderate chance this would affect the U.S. But the upper air pattern is much different now. Omar, however, is forecast to take a northeast track and, after scraping Puerto Rico and crossing the Leeward Islands, will head out over open water far, far east of the United States.

Similarly, it's looking more and more like the weekend coastal storm will stay south and east of us, with only a few showers, if that, spinning our way. There could be wind and waves along the coast of the Carolinas, though.

What will be happening the next few days, though, is a shift from a warm temperature regime to a cool one, perhaps even cold by the middle of next week. Canadian air will begin to assert itself with two frontal passages over the next week, the first of which will occur late Thursday or Friday. Expect lows in the 40s by the weekend, and maybe even flirting with a widespread freeze by the middle of next week. Even with bright sunshine, we may have days next week that don't top 60.

Another strong coastal storm may develop

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:01:43 -0500

You may remember back in late September (click here to look back at my blog entries) we were dealing with a coastal storm -- a strong low pressure system, possibly with a little tropical influence, that ended up coming inland and spinning rain on us for 3 days after causing wind and waves along the coast of the Carolinas. Well, we may be dealing with another coastal storm along the Carolinas by the weekend. This one is not expected to move as far inland or have tropical characteristics, at least at this point. But it could cause another round of high winds and heavy rains along the coast of the Carolinas and eastern Virginia, and may well spin some rain back our direction come Friday or Saturday.

It's something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, expect unseasonably warm and dry weather Wednesday before a cold front and the low bring much cooler weather back for the weekend.

The tropics are still kicking

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 13:08:50 -0500

The tropical Atlantic has been relatively quiet since the spree of 5 straight tropical storms and hurricanes making U.S. landfall in August and the first half of September, but it has become more active again this week. The current National Hurricane Center map shows Tropical Depression Nana (formerly a tropical storm) in the open Atlantic, Tropical Storm Omar in the Carribean and Tropical Depression Sixteen (which could become Tropical Storm Paloma) near the coast of Central America. At this time, all three of these systems are expected to miss the U.S. by a wide berth, but Omar and Sixteen in particular could cause some mayhem in the nations which they do strike.

Weather Journal blog taking a short break

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:41:23 -0500

I'm taking a few days off from blogging, partly because of a software change. The weather looks pretty quiet the next few days anyway. I hope to be blogging again by Tuesday or so.

I will be continuing to answer reader questions, including some I took from blog comments, in my Sunday and Wednesday Weather Journal columns that appear in the Roanoke Times newspaper. Today, I have a column about a possible seismic tornado warning system.

You can click here to see the Weather Journal columns.

Autumn leaves and autumn showers

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:19:28 -0500

We've had some discussion about fall foliage on here ... here's a link to a Web site with some regular folilage updates and other information on fall in Virginia.

As for weather this week ... there may be a few showers mid to late week as a new cold front presses eastward, but at this time it doesn't look like a widespread, appreciable rain.

Prolonged calm, dry period likely

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 16:16:10 -0500

I've got into trouble proclaiming calm weather ahead before, but that looks exactly like what is going to happen through much of the next week, if not longer. Days will be in the 60s and 70s, possibly scraping 80 a day or two around Sunday or Monday, lows will be in the 40s and 50s, with some more 30s tonight in areas to the west of Roanoke that saw frost last night. We'll probably start to see color moving down the mountains this week. Fall is upon us, and temperatures will be right about where they are supposed to be.

A frosty Friday morning possible

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 10:30:16 -0500

Cool but dry air has settled in to Southwest Virginia. Overnight lows tonight could dip into the 30s and low 40s across much of the area, which raises the prospect of some scattered frost, if the skies are clear and the winds calm. This will not be a widespread killing freeze but might be reason to get sensitive plants indoors, especially in more rural areas. Temperatures the next several days are going to be near the norms for this time of year, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s into the foreseeable future ... and little or no chance of rain.

Answering the questions sent by readers

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 02:01:43 -0500

In my Weather Journal column for Wednesday, I've started answering some of the questions you e-mailed to me or posted on my Sept. 17 blog entry soliciting weather questions. I started with a question about fall foliage this year, one I frequently get, but often struggle with as my area of knowledge is weather, not biology. I found a little help from a North Carolina State University article on the Internet, linked here in full. Do you have any ideas about how the fall foliage will be this fall? Feel free to post a comment below.

I will continue answering some of your questions in my shorter Sunday and Wednesday Weather Journal updates the next couple of weeks. These appear on the back page of the Virginia section of The Roanoke Times, and also on the Weather page on Roanoke.com (which is separate from this blog).

Cold front kicking up a few rumblers

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:09:58 -0500

Hail of 3/4 inch and slightly larger has been reported in parts of Patrick and Henry counties, the latter of which is under a severe thunderstorm warning until 8:45 p.m. A cold front, bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air to the region, has found just enough instability and moisture to kick off some storms from Southside Virginia south into North Carolina. This won't be indicative of the weather to come, though -- expect a long period of mild and dry weather, with some cool mornings, likely stretching well into next week.

Current National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

The final tally from the unnamed cyclone

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:24:34 -0500

The coastal storm -- mostly non-tropical, therefore unnamed -- that moved inland late this past week brought a good rain to still-very-needy Southwest Virginia. Most areas got 1-3 inches over a 3-day period, with some heavier amounts, particularly in higher elevation areas that benefitted from upslope wind flow that not only made the rain heavier but kept it going more continuously. If we could get this kind of rain every 10 days or so (with some of it being snow in winter) from now through spring, we could enter next summer with no drought worries at all. Roanoke Regional Airport tallied 1.17 inches of rain Thursday through Saturday, with the heaviest part of it falling before dawn Saturday. We're still more than an inch below normal for the month.

Below in the extended entry is a National Weather Service listing of rainfall amounts from around Southwest and Southside Virginia for a 3-day period ending this afternoon:

Does anyone think of Maine when they think of hurricanes?

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 00:14:21 -0500

Hurricane Kyle is staying well off the coast of the United States tonight, but is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia late Sunday or early Monday. It may be close enough to scrape eastern Maine -- hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are out for that area. It has been 17 years since the Maine coast has been under a hurricane watch -- that occurred for Hurricane Bob. Here's a page I found on the Internet with some other examples of hurricanes tha have affected Maine. While the waters are colder up that way, and tropical systems tend to lose some intensity, a fast-moving system can keep enough strength to be quite dangerous. So hurricanes can occur in the far northern areas of the East Coast, they just don't happen very often.

Rain lingers into weekend, but should gradually diminish

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 00:19:20 -0500

Saturday looks to be rainy, though I think we might see it start to break in the afternoon as this persistent pinwheel finally starts moving north. As I write this just after midnight, the rain has arrived again in Southwest Virginia after an evening lull, but the overall rain area is starting to look less solid and defined as it spins around the low west of Charlotte.

I would be remiss in not mentioning Tropical Storm Kyle, which formed from the disturbance that was near Hispaniola earlier in the week. Some early forecast models had the low affecting us now and Kyle tag-teaming, but that will not be the case. Kyle will head due north and stay well east of the U.S. except for possibly raking eastern Maine as it moves into Nova Scotia a few days from now.

Beyond the gradually less showery weekend, it looks like we'll have a warm early week and then a sharp cooldown headed into next weekend, which might bring us our coldest weather so far this fall season. More on that as it develops.

Lull in rain means there's much more to come

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 16:26:43 -0500

The gap in the rain that we've been experiencing in the Roanoke Valley may last a few more hours. The reason this has happened is that the center of the low pressure system has pivoted so far south and west that it is only circulating a few scatttered showers through the area. Really, we have only been on the fringe of the storm so far. The storm being so far south and west only means that the main body of the system is yet to come through, and that should happen overnight into Saturday morning as the low turns northeastward. The result will be a period of more focused rain, some of which could be heavy. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches have already occurred, with somewhat less to the north. Expect about an inch more, locally 2 or more, in most areas before the rain ends overnight Saturday.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest national/regional radar

Coastal storm ... no, an inland storm now

kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:14:44 -0500

The low-pressure system is well inland this morning, centered over northern South Carolina with its telltale swirl on radar. Roanoke is on the northern fringe of the system's northernmost band of showers. As the day progresses, the low will slowly drift northwest into western North Carolina and showers and steadier rain will inch farther northward. The storm is expected to linger through tonight and into much of Saturday as it ever so slowly moves north and then northeast. The rain probably won't be torrential but more showery with a heavy spurt or two. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is projecting 1 to 2 inches of rain over most of the area through Saturday evening.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest national/regional radar