The Roanoke Times: Weather Journal http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/ with Kevin Myatt en Copyright 2008 Sun, 11 May 2008 06:33:47 -0500 http://blogs.roanoke.com/images/weatherjournal.gif The Roanoke Times: Weather Journal http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/ http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/?v=3.31 patrick.beeson@roanoke.com http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Is it doing the Southwest Virginia split?
radar0511.jpg

Some forecast models showed that something like this might happen. The initial rain band with the strong low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley today is splitting into two parts -- one to our northwest, one to our south -- with only a thin band of showers entering Southwest Virginia this morning. Additional showers and some thunderstorms may develop later today, and the National Weather Service in Blacksburg still has a flood watch for counties mostly east of Roanoke. But we've seen this morning's phenomenon many times before with storm systems, whereby the best storm energy goes north and the best moisture stays south, used up by stronger storms.

Another element of this storm: The potential for strong winds. A high wind watch is in effect for many counties tonight and Monday, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. Click here for the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

I'm about to hit the road for Storm Chase 2008, but I'll keep tabs on Southwest Virginia weather along the way, as well.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/is_it_doing_the_southwest_virg.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/is_it_doing_the_southwest_virg.html Forecast Sun, 11 May 2008 06:33:47 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Another deadly day in the nation's mid-section The tornado death toll continues to climb this spring, with at least 19 killed in Oklahoma and Missouri today. This is the same storm system that will bring a threat of heavy rain to Southwest Virginia on Sunday. A flood watch has been issued for several counties just east of the Blue Ridge, where the rain was heaviest on Thursday night and will face a greater flood risk with additional rain.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/another_deadly_day_in_the_nati.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/another_deadly_day_in_the_nati.html Severe storms Sat, 10 May 2008 23:02:47 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Round 2: More rain, probably not many severe storms
rainmapsmall0510.jpg

The second of three expected strong low pressure systems is set to move to the northwest of the region on Sunday. While it will drag abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, and upper air winds would certainly be favorable for severe weather, cooler, drier air wedging in from the northeast will probably render the severe thunderstorm threat minimal to non-existent on Sunday. As a result, we can expect rain, including some hard showers and perhaps a few mild thunderstorms, but probably not the repeat of Thursday night's severe weather outbreak. The greatest risk of severe storms will be much farther south, in Georgia and South Carolina. Rainfall amounts through our area could be quite substantial, as this map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows.

For Storm Chase Trip 2008 ... it means we may be headed through some heavy rain in the morning on the way out, and we may look for the possibility of some stronger storms as we enter eastern Tennessee late in the morning.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/round_2_more_rain_probably_not.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/round_2_more_rain_probably_not.html Forecast Sat, 10 May 2008 11:35:54 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Storm chaser arrest triggers controversy After our 2007 storm chase trip, I wrote a Weather Journal column about the growing number of storm chasers in the central U.S. and the occasional tension with local aw enforcement officials. An incident in Crane County, Texas, earlier this week has brought that into the limelight.

A man leading a commercial storm chasing tour, while also reporting storm information to the National Weather Service, was arrested by a deputy sheriff and charged with obstruction of a highway. (Click here for article, along with video clips and photos.) The storm chaser and at least one witness says he was safely parked in a roadside park, not obstructing anyone. The sheriff's office later issued a statement saying they were acting to protect the man and his tour group from tornadoes, and also that he wasn't reporting storm information to the local emergency office.

The storm chaser community is outraged; a discussion thread goes on for many pages on the storm chaser Web site Stormtrack. It sounds as if there might be a protracted legal battle over this incident.

Our dealings with law enforcement over the years have been, without exception, extremely positive. Most of the time, law enforcement officials in small towns throughout the central U.S. just come and chat with us when they see our vans with the magnets and the antennas.

Faced with a similar situation, I have no doubt that we would have unquestionably complied with the officer's order to move to a different location, even if it meant sacrificing a better storm viewing spot. We want to be seen in the best light possible, and it certainly wouldn't be worth the trouble with two vanloads of college and high school students.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/storm_chasing/storm_chaser_arrest_triggers_c.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/storm_chasing/storm_chaser_arrest_triggers_c.html Storm chasing Sat, 10 May 2008 10:33:58 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Storm Chase Trip 2008 Recent severe weather in our region has only heightened both the interest level and the seriousness we have in the subject as we prepare to head out on the 2008 storm chase trip Sunday morning (May 11). It is quite possible we will be heading into some threat of severe storms almost right out of the gate on Sunday in Southwest Virginia and eastern Tennessee, though our main goal is to get far enough west by Tuesday for a possible Southern Plains severe weather outbreak.

Below is a link to the main chase page that includes our position mapped on radar and a link to a blog being kept by the students on the trip:

Storm Chase 2008 tracking page

Of course, I will be providing daily updates here on Roanoke.com as we head into a very confusing and uncertain weather pattern.

Storm chase team members are listed below by residence and school/professional affiliation
:
Dave Carroll (Blacksburg), Pulaski County High School teacher and Virginia Tech adjunct instructor, leader
Kevin Myatt (Roanoke County), Roanoke Times weather columnist, co-leader
Sandy LaCorte, (Davidson, N.C.) North Carolina-Asheville graduate (as of May 10, officially a meteorologist!), student trainer
Morgan Weeks (Floyd), North Carolina-Asheville meteorology student
Jennifer Henderson (Pearisburg), Virginia Tech instructor in interdisciplinary studies
Jessica Burchard (Greensboro N.C.), Virginia Tech student
Trevor Owen (Danville), Virginia Tech student
Jordan Rollins (Seaford, Del.), Virginia Tech student
Andrew Smith (Mechanicsville) Virginia Tech student
Taylor White (Blacksburg), Virginia Tech student
Marielle Taft, (Cabin John, Md.) Walt Whitman High School (Bethesda, Md.) student
Joel Willis, Pulaski County High School student

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/storm_chasing/storm_chase_trip_2008.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/storm_chasing/storm_chase_trip_2008.html Storm chasing Fri, 09 May 2008 21:21:20 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Tornado confirmed in Henry and Franklin counties The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has confirmed that a tornado rated EF1 on the Enhanced Fujita scale -- winds of 86-95 mph --- traveled along a 1-mile-long, 75-yard-wide path across the Henry-Franklin county line just north of Figsboro, which is north of Martinsville and east of U.S. 220. Four houses were damaged and many trees were toppled, the weather service said in a public information statment. According to the weather service, the tornado touched down near Virginia 886 and lifted at the intersection of Virginia 618 and 632. The storm occurred about 8 p.m. Thursday.

There were many reports of flash flooding and one report of a landslide near U.S. 220 in Henry County as well. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were common across the county as heavy to severe storms repeatedly moved over the same areas.

A complete list of severe weather reported to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg is in the extended entry below.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/tornado_confirmed_in_henry_and.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/tornado_confirmed_in_henry_and.html Severe storms Fri, 09 May 2008 15:56:48 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Possible tornadoes in Triad area of North Carolina; at least 1 killed UPDATED 2:20 AM
Reports are still coming in, but it appears that there may have been a tornado or a series of tornadoes in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area of North Carolina late Thursday night. At least one person was killed, according to the Associated Press, early this morning. Injuries and damage to homes, some flattened, have been reported to the National Weather Service-Raleigh office, both to the east and west of the town of Clemmons just southwest of Winston-Salem, and vehicles have been reported blown off Interstate 40 just south of the Piedmont Triad Airport. Counties in those area have been under tornado warnings, as the south end of a long line of storms drags through the area. The southernmost storm of a line is often called a "tail-end Charlie" and is frequently the most likely storm in a line to spawn a tornado, as it can draw on moisture, instability and wind shear from the south unobstructed by other storms.

Latest tornado coverage from the Greensboro News and Record

North Carolina storm reports

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/possible_tornadoes_in_triad_ar.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/possible_tornadoes_in_triad_ar.html Severe storms Fri, 09 May 2008 00:01:04 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Severe weather erupts across Southwest Virginia A tornado watch remains until 1 a.m. and several counties in southside Virginia have been placed under tornado warnings this evening based on radar-indicated rotation within strong thunderstorms. Numerous reports of hail have also occurred across Southwest Virginia. Most everyone has gotten a lightning show with some heavy rain.

This has been caused by the first of three strong low-pressure systems expected to move near the area in the next week. This one caught us following a warm, humid afternoon, so some storms have become severe.

Latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service-Blacksburg

Latest storm reports from the state and region

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/severe_weather_erupts_across_s.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/severe_weather_erupts_across_s.html Severe storms Thu, 08 May 2008 22:01:49 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Some heavy rain possible tonight The timing on the first in a series of storms will likely bring rain, some of it heavy, into the area overnight, with scattered showers during the day today and again on Friday. Here is the latest rainfall forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, showing widespread rain amounts of an inch or more in a strip along the Blue Ridge and then northeast to the D.C. area.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/some_heavy_rain_possible_tonig.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/some_heavy_rain_possible_tonig.html Forecast Thu, 08 May 2008 12:46:44 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Repeated spring rains appear to be on the way Very similar low pressure systems, following similar paths, are likely to bring rain to Southwest Virginia on Friday, again Sunday, and then possibly again around the middle of next week. A lot will depend on the exact paths each system will take. Currently, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting the axis of heaviest rain to be generally north of us for the first two systems through Monday. But this is all subject to change as the forecast models try to pinpoint the movement and strength of each system.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/repeated_spring_rains_appear_t.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/repeated_spring_rains_appear_t.html Forecast Wed, 07 May 2008 20:17:01 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Heavy rain episode late this weekend? This is in the "file it away and think about it later if it happens" category, but the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center makes a statement in its afternoon medium-range forecast discussion that should at least get your attention, however subject to change it might be:

A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

The "cyclone" in question refers to a strong low-pressure system that many computer models are developing somewhere over the eastern U.S. about Sunday. That's about as specific as it gets right now. If this forecast were a stock option, I wouldn't buy it now, but it is something worth considering as we get closer to the weekend to see how it develops.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/heavy_rain_episode_late_this_w.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/heavy_rain_episode_late_this_w.html Forecast Tue, 06 May 2008 15:23:11 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Thousands die in Myanmar cyclone Our weather looks pretty calm the next few days, but that can't be said for other parts of the world. Myanmar suffered a massive cyclone -- the same as a hurricane, called a cyclone or typhoon in Asia -- that has killed thousands.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/tropical_weather/thousands_die_in_myanmar_cyclo.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/tropical_weather/thousands_die_in_myanmar_cyclo.html Tropical weather Mon, 05 May 2008 08:58:23 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Scattered showers are about all there is to it A few showers this afternoon and maybe a few more overnight are about all we're getting out of the same cold front that kicked off a mighty tornado outbreak in the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley. Though a few random showers can't be ruled out, especially early, Sunday looks to be a nice day overall. This may well be the best weekend for outdoor plans we've had in many weeks, though we still could use some more rain for that long-term dry situation.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/current_conditions/scattered_showers_are_about_al.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/current_conditions/scattered_showers_are_about_al.html Current conditions Sat, 03 May 2008 22:52:19 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Some thunderstorms coming, but nothing like to the west It's been a violent couple of days in what has been a winter and spring of violent weather. At least 7 died in Arkansas, as it and several sounding states were mauled by severe weather. Wind, hail and tornadoes slammed the central U.S. on Thursday and again on Friday.

The same cold front that caused this outbreak will be headed our way Saturday night, but it will have less moisture and instability to work with. A thin line of storms is expected to develop to our west and move our way. Whether all, part or none of the line will survive east of the mountains is very much in question. In any event, after a warm Saturday with a good amount of sunshine, don't expect a long drenching rain or the kind of tornado outbreak that either southeast Virginia or Arkansas have experienced this week. While some severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out, we are unlikely to see anything more than a random gust or two, and the front looks to pass quickly and leave Sunday as another sunny, pretty warm day (70s on Sunday, as opposed to near 80 on Saturday).

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/some_thunderstorms_coming_but.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/forecast/some_thunderstorms_coming_but.html Forecast Fri, 02 May 2008 23:37:26 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt) Somebody else's turn for tornadoes While the Suffolk area of southeast Virginia continues to clean up, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are raking through places where they are much more common in the central U.S. That doesn't make them less dangerous -- at least three have died in Arkansas this morning. Click here for the latest on the severe storms from the Associated Press.

]]> http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/somebody_elses_turn_for_tornad.html http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/severe_storms/somebody_elses_turn_for_tornad.html Severe storms Fri, 02 May 2008 12:45:24 -0500 kevin.myatt@roanoke.com (kevinmyatt)