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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Some natural fireworks on the Fourth of July

Scattered thunderstorms will be popping this afternoon, and off and on for several days, as a weak cold front and a series of upper-level impulses interact with warmth and humidity. While most storms will just be rumblers that dump out a quick burst of rain, a few storms could be severe, with localized gusty winds and hail as the main threats. This is really typical July weather for Southwest Virginia. If you're on a lake today and you hear thunder, it would probably be wise to get to shelter as soon as possible. These will be intermittent storms, so there will probably still be time for cookouts and fireworks between the downpours ... and some places will barely get any rain at all.

Latest from the National Weather Service-Blacksburg

The power of a little bitty tornado

A month ago this evening, on June 3 , a small and relatively weak tornado skipped through South Roanoke, doing a lot of damage to trees, including uprooting some very large ones, but very little damage to houses except where it knocked trees or limbs onto about 10 houses. Damage from the EF-0 tornado, with winds of 70-80 mph, was estimated at $350,000. The National Weather Service estimated the June 3 tornado to be no wider than 60 yards.

Some video of a tornado in Sweden, of all places, linked here, might yield a little light on how a small tornado can do so much damage to trees, yet touch little else. Scroll ahead to the 1:25 mark on the video to see the tiny white funnel, which appears to be only 10 feet or so wide, as it moves a few feet in front of a car without blowing it off the road, then takes the tops out of several trees. It doesn't appear to so much blow the treetops out as twist them off, slicing them.

And then, there's this widely shown surveillance video of another small tornado, probably no bigger than 20 yards wide, tossing cars in a parking lot in Alabama this past May. This is obviously a more intense tornado than the ones in Roanoke or Sweden.

Size isn't everything where tornadoes are concerned.

Sunday potential fizzles; cold air aloft may trigger storms today

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Sunday was certainly not the storm day it could have been, with a strong cold front pressing in and an unseasonble southward dip in the jet stream, bringing both cold air and strong winds to the higher layers of the atmosphere. We were lacking some instability, as clouds held the temperatures down in many areas, and while it was pretty humid with dew points in the 60s, it could have been more sticky with dew points in the 70s. Still, a few decent storms managed to fire. If you look on the Storm Prediction Center's map of storm reports for Sunday, you will notice a blue dot and a green dot in Southwest Virginia. The blue dot is for a report of tree damage from wind near Callaway, while the green dot is for 3/4 inch hail near Penhook, both in Franklin County. I was out watching the storms Sunday afternoon, and shot this photo, looking west from Gretna, showing this same storm over eastern Franklin County as it approached northern Pittsylvania County. The storm, which showed weak rotation on radar at times, did have something of a layered, rounded structure, and spun out quite a few cloud-to-ground lightning strokes. If instability had been greater and moisture thicker, we might have seen serious stuff.

Don't be surprised if a few more storms develop today as unseasonably cold air flows in to many layers of the atmosphere above the surface, allowing any remnant moisture to bubble into it with daytime heating. With the freezing level so low, hail will be a possibility with any storm that develops today. The rest of the week looks mostly dry, and rather cool for this time of year, with some lows in the 50s by Tuesday morning.

Will clouds dampen severe threat some?

Many ingredients for severe thunderstorms are in place today -- moisture, relatively strong winds aloft, and an approaching strong cold front to lift air upward. Heating, which provides instability as colder air moves in aloft, is a bit lacking right now, as clouds from last night's storm have blocked much of the sunlight. Temperatures are holding in the 70s in much of the Roanoke and New River valleys. Still, as the afternoon progresses, expect to see thunderstorms develop. South and east of us -- Southside Virginia, the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina -- may have the best shot at severe weather, where it is hotter, but I would not be surprised to see some storms fire along the cold front and move in late this afternoon. Also ... there's still a few hours for the sun to break out and get things cooking a little more.

Stormy weekend ahead in many states, including Virginia

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Gust front over Roanoke shortly after noon

It was another pretty rough day of severe thunderstorms around Virginia, with numerous reports of wind damage, mostly to trees. The Roanoke Valley was twice under severe thunderstorm warnings, at midday and again nearly 4 hours later. Trees were reported blown down on Williamson Road near Hollins College and on Coyner Springs Road near U.S. 460 with the later storm. There were numerous other reports of wind damage in the area, and just a few reports of large hail. You can click here to scroll through the weather service reports, or visit this page to look at a map and listing of severe weather reports nationally.

It was an extremely rough day around Nebraska and Iowa, where the Omaha, Neb.-Council Bluffs, Iowa, was hammered by winds up to 100 mph and baseball-sized hail, causing widespread power outages and killing at least 2 when a tree fell on a car. This was caused by the same cold front that will be approaching us the next couple of days, plowing into hot, humid air. With this clash of air masses, lots of ouflow boundaries left from storms the last two days, a series of upper-level impulses moving ahead fo the cold front, and daytime heat and moisture bubbling into cooler air aloft, Saturday and Sunday appear likely to produce additional rounds of storms in our area.

With wind dynamics picking up above us, these storms may become more organized and severe weather may be more widespread throughout the East. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the main threats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some tornado reports, too.

Keep an eye on the sky this weekend.

Yet another storm cluster moving toward Roanoke

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Weather service radar, about 3 p.m.

The third very similar storm cluster in the last 24 hours appears to be headed through the New River and Roanoke valleys over the next hour or so. These storms, like those that moved through about 5 p.m. on Thursday and about noon today, pose primarily a threat of strong, gusty winds and some hail up to penny size.

I was out in the brunt of the midday storm and got some photos I will post later tonight.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of Virginia until 8 p.m. as a moderately unstable air mass and some wind support aloft are firing storm clusters capable to strong winds and large hail.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar.

Cluster of storms may affect Roanoke area about noon

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National Weather Service radar about 11 a.m.

This may get to be a habit the next few days. A new cluster of storms, moving out of West Virginia, is headed eastward. If it maintains strength and keeps on its present trajectory, the southern edge of this line would scrape through Blacksburg and Roanoke during the next 30-90 minutes. The line is not severe presently, but the storms look pretty strong on radar. In Roanoke currently, it is starting to get warm, into the 80s, and the dew point is 65, which indicated a pretty moist atmosphere to support storms. Westerly winds, however, sometimes cause low-level drying that help diminish storms as they move east of the mountains. So it's a mixed report on whether these storms will be able to make it. With some upper-level support, there's a pretty good chance that at least some heavy showers, with a few bolts of lightning, will affect the Interstate 81 corridor from Roanoke to Lexington around noon or shortly thereafter. Some gusty winds or even hail can't be ruled out.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Storm blows over the Roanoke Valley; some wind damage

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Ominous, spiral-like storm base over northern Roanoke/Roanoke County

There appeared to be some weak rotation in the thunderstorm cell that passed over northern Roanoke County on one of the radar Web sites I sometimes consult, and this photo, shot from the Roanoke Times roof garden looking north, seems to show a spiral-like cloud formation. It was a high-based cloud structure and any rotation with it was very weak, certainly no threat to spin anything at ground level.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has received a report of trees down one-half mile west of the Roanoke Regional Airport, in the Loch Haven area. I observed winds gusting no higher than 50 mph, which kicked up some dust in downtown Roanoke, and we got very little rain downtown. The storm appeared to break up into two or three small but intense cells as it came over the valley, and some of these little cells may have been new storms that fired along outflow winds that were kicked out by previous storms. The most significant report of damage turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg so far was a report of numerous trees down in Pembroke in Giles County, which may have been the result of a microburst.

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An anvil cloud on the storm after it passed through the Roanoke Valley

A couple more photos are linked: (1) The rain core of the storm with Fort Lewis Mountain to the left (this would have been about the time the wind damage was reported, and in the same general direction as this photo was taken); (2) an airplane coming in for a landing at Roanoke Regional Airport, silhouetted by storm clouds (there were two landings and a takeoff as I observed this storm passing not far from the airport); and (3) about 90 minutes later, the backsheared anvil cloud of the storm moving eastward. Backshearing often indicates strong updrafts.

Please let me know with a comment below or an email to me if you had any kind of significant wind damage, hail or any other interesting weather observations.

UPDATE FRIDAY 6/2, 4:40 P.M.: Scott Martin sent two photos (linked in blue within this update) of wind damage at Smith Mountain Lake. He said about 10 trees were blown down by straight-line winds on Thursday.

ADDED FRIDAY 6/27, 10:45 A.M.: In the extended entry below, Thursday's severe weather reports turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

Continue reading "Storm blows over the Roanoke Valley; some wind damage" »

Strong storm could affect Roanoke Valley if it holds together

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One thunderstorm this afternoon, now moving into Montgomery County, has put down some pretty big hail, up to .88 inch in diameter, and some strong winds that have caused some damage in Giles County. If this storm holds together, it may affect the Roanoke Valley after 5 p.m. A severe thunderstorm warning now includes the southwestern corner of Roanoke County. Blacksburg should be feeling the effects before then, perhaps even right now.

As always, please leave a comment or email me if you experience any significant weather.

Photo caption: National Weather Service radar at 4:20 p.m.

Severe thunderstorms possible again today

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Virginia under a slight risk of severe weather today. By afternoon, as heat builds, it will push moist updrafts into cooler air aloft, which could trigger thunderstorms. The best chance for severe weather, with large hail and high winds, is likely to be be east of the Blue Ridge, where wind conditions through the atmosphere, instability and moisture are more conducive to thunderstorm development. But a cold front hanging to our west could be another trigger for thunderstorms, and cold air will be even lower in the atmosphere there, so storms could have a better chance of producing hail. Daytime heating, the mountainous terrain, and any leftover outflow boundaries from storms during the evening can also help storms develop today. It's a rather complicated situation that could yield some more reports of hail and strong winds, though it appears now that the coverage of storms may be less than Sunday. After today, drier weather will move in for a few days, with temperatures warming back to near normal by late in the week (upper 80s for highs, lower 60s for lows in Roanoke).

Parts of Roanoke, Blacksburg, other areas hammered by hail

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This photo from Jesica Clements shows a jagged, roughly quarter-sized hailstone that fell near Wasena Park in Roanoke

Steep lapse rates ... a rapid change from warm air near the surface to cold air aloft ... led to several reports of large and/or prolific hail today. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg received at least one report of hail 4 to 6 inches deep on the ground near Galax. Much of Roanoke also experienced hail up to an inch in diameter in a mid-afternoon thunderstorm. Here are a couple of quick links to a video and photo showing some of the hail.

Another storm about 8:30 p.m. at Blacksburg produced large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. The storm exhibited some weak rotation on radar as it moved through Giles and Montgomery counties, but then became dominated by outflow winds and weakened as it moved toward the Roanoke Valley and points eastward.

Hailstorm video from LoLo Monae of Roanoke

Hail covering front porch by Josh Jackson in Roanoke

My photo of a multi-tiered shelf cloud moving over Salem about 1:45 p.m.

Hail covering a walk way by John Jackson in Roanoke

William Ingram uses a snow shovel to remove hail in Blacksburg, submitted by his father Hank Ingram

In the extended entry below is a long list of severe weather reports across the area from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. You can also click here to see a listing and map of severe reports nationally from the Storm Prediction Center.

Continue reading "Parts of Roanoke, Blacksburg, other areas hammered by hail" »

The cost of cooler weather: A severe storm threat

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In order to get some cool air later this week, we've got to get through a threat of severe thunderstorms today and tonight, and a pretty serious one at that. The Storm Prediction Center has raised a moderate risk of severe weather for most of Virginia north of the Roanoke Valley, with a slight risk elsewhere. The threat today is largely the result of cold air aloft, which will enable warmer and increasingly more moist air to rise into that cold air aloft. This could bubble up some big thunderstorms today, aided by the cold front moving southeast, lifting warm air upward. Strong winds and hail will be the biggest threats; the winds are mostly blowing in the same direction in the different layers of the atmosphere, so tornadoes will probably be few and far between, if any occur at all. Unfortunately, it looks like another day of spotty rain, where one place may get a couple of inches while another not far away gets sprinkles, depending on how the storms develop. The front will push through overnight into Tuesday, and unseasonably cool weather will settle in much of the rest of the week, with higs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with some 40s, through the weekend.

Gusty winds, heavy rains common in storms Saturday

As expected, strong winds and heavy rain were common in thunderstorms that occurred Saturday, though there were a handful of pretty large hail reports, too. Today should see much less shower and thunderstorm activity,as a weak cold front has pushed through, but there could be more again on Monday as a much stronger cold front arrives in the area. That front will be the leading edge of a major pattern change that will bring unseasonably cool weather to the area later this week.

The extended entry below contains severe weather reports in the area from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

Continue reading "Gusty winds, heavy rains common in storms Saturday" »

Some storms may have strong winds today

The combination of daytime heating, lingering humidity, terrain effects and an approaching cold front may trigger some strong to locally severe storms in Southwest Virginia this afternoon. Upper-level winds are not that strong, so widespread severe weather and rotating storms capable of large hail and tornadoes are unlikely. But some storms could unleash damaging wind gusts in small areas or kick out some small hail, and many storms will unload some torrential rain on localized areas while places not far away remain dry. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion for much of western and central Virginia today for this severe weather threat, but says that a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

Another nightmare severe weather night in the Plains

A large, powerful tornado moving into a Boy Scout camp would be a nightmare ... and yet that's exactly what happened in Iowa last night, with four deaths and more than 40 injuries. Two more people were killed in Kansas on another ferocious severe weather night in the central U.S., and Kansas State University's campus was hit by a tornado.

Associated Press article on Wednesday night's storms

Wednesday's severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center

Severe weather reports from Tuesday

There were several severe weather reports from storms that developed on Tuesday afternoon as a weak cold front pushed into hot, sticky air in the area. A preliminary list of severe reports from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg is provided in the extended entry below.

Also, here's a link to some photos about a fire started on a mountain along the Craig-Botetourt county line by lightning.

National Weather Service severe reports below:

Continue reading "Severe weather reports from Tuesday" »

Heat-breaking front may trigger severe thunderstorms

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of Virginia under a "slight risk" of severe weather this afternoon, primarily for the risk of damaging winds and some hail as a weak cold front pushes into hot, humid air this afternoon and evening. The much greater risk of severe weather is over interior New England, where there is a moderate risk of severe weather, including an unusually high chance for tornadoes in that area. Wind shear is much greater in that region, and that may cause some rotation in storms. Down here, winds are much weaker aloft, so it appears there will be less chance of storm rotation. But a few storm downdrafts could be storng enough to cause some localized damage.

The front should put an end to this particular heat wave after today's high rise into the 90s.

Another round of severe storms tonight?

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I just shot this photo of a stout looking thunderstorm updraft southeast of Roanoke. Radar does show some small but potent looking storm cells going up in Franklin County ... those will need to be watched for development. (Just as I got ready to file this ... a severe thunderstorm warning went up for Floyd and Franklin counties ... but by 8:30 p.m., the storms have pretty much died.) So far today, most of the severe weather has stayed safely north of our part of Virginia, because the stationary front, dividing sultry air down here from cooler air to the north, has set up shop up that way. Disturbances riding along the front are triggering rounds of storms, which so far, have stayed north of us. We'll have to keep an eye on it as the evening continues whether (a) storms from the northwest will creep farther south and (b) whether new storms can go up closer to us. With temperatures near 90, dew points near 70, and a good amount of wind aloft, the pump is primed if any storms can manage to push through a moderately strong cap of warm aloft.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest watches and warnings from National Weather Service

By the way ... Roanoke's high hit 92 today ... the first 90-degree day of 2008, a day earlier than I was expecting.

Tornado confirmed in Roanoke

I've been out with the National Weather Service's damage assessment team today in Roanoke. Here's what was determined:

* An EF0 tornado -- the weakest rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale -- skipped along a 1.4 mile path from the intersection of Bluefield Boulevard Southwest and Welch Road southeastward to Robin Hood Road in South Roanoke.
* Estimated wind speeds of 70-80 mph.
* $350,000 estimated damage on 55 properties, including approximately 10 homes and up to 6 vehicles damaged by falling trees.

While the narrow path and trees laying at a right angle to the storm's path were clearly indicative of a tornado, the amazing lack of structural damage to homes -- aside from those damaged by falling trees -- indicated the funnel may have remained airborne through much of the track, only touching down a few times.

A special thanks to Phil Hysell and Anita Silverman with the National Weather Service, and to Mike Guzo, Roanoke's emergency management coordinator, for allowing me to go with the damage assessment team today.

Click here for a longer story about the tornado

More severe weather could occur today

Severe weather could be possible again today across Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state within a slight-risk zone for severe weather, and a tornado watch is already in effect until 10 a.m. for parts of northern Virginia. It's all related to a nearly stationary front draped east to west across the Ohio Valley toward the mid-Atlantic, with disturbances riding along the front.

Click here for the latest warnings/watches from the National Weather Service at Blacksburg

Rotating thunderstorm/possible tornado moves through Roanoke

UPDATE 10:20 P.M.: The National Weather Service has told the Roanoke Times that it has NOT confirmed that a tornado touched down in Roanoke, contrary to an earlier report by the Associated Press. A survey team will study the damage on Wednesday to determine if it was a tornado.

A severe thunderstorm with some rotation moved over parts of the Roanoke Valley early this evening, dropping some large hail on parts of the northern side of the valley and causing significant wind damage in parts of south Roanoke.

Later, the storm exhibited enough rotation on radar to warrant tornado warnings in counties southeast of Roanoke.

I caught the back side of the storm moving just southeast of town near Roanoke Mountain and observed some rising cloud tags, indicating strong updrafts, along with some evidence of rotation in the clouds.

If you have any photos of anything that might have been a tornado or funnel cloud, please e-mail them to me. My own photos don't really reveal anything of too much importance. Roanoke Mountain blocked my view of some of the storm.

Latest National Weather Service radar

Storms trying to move our way -- will they make it?

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The question of the day is whether or not the cluster of storms in eastern Kentucky will be able to make it into the Roanoke and New River valleys later today. Instability along and east of Interstate 81 is marginal, so it's uncertain if the storms will be able to make it over the mountains. If they do, we could see a few bursts of heavy rain, some gusty winds and possibly some small hail here and there later this afternoon (sometime after 2). If they don't, we'll have a better chance of storms overnight into Wednesday with a cold front sagging southward, before that front lifts northward and hot weather takes over late in the week.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

A few homegrown storms

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After spending more than two weeks wandering around the United States looking at severe storms, we got a little taste of severe storms locally today. I did get out and shoot a few photos over southern Roanoke County as a gust front ahead of some earlier storms fired up a new line of storms, which prompted a severe thunderstorm warning for a short time in southern Roanoke County and Franklin County. Several other counties north of us were warned for severe weather at various times this afternoon. This was in response to a weak cold front moving southeastward, finding just a wee bit of moisture and instability for a few storms to percolate. Monday will likely be a drier day, but a front hanging around the rest of the week could trigger occasional rounds of thunderstorms through the end of the week.

Linked below are three photos I took:

Lowered cloud base

Darkening cloud base along gust front

Advancing gust front

In the extended entry are severe weather reports turned in to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, including 3/4- to 1-inch hail reports from southwest Roanoke County.

Continue reading "A few homegrown storms" »

Severe weather threat focused elsewhere in Virginia

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Tornado watches now cover all of Virginia except here in the southwest. One factor that will likely keep thunderstorm develop minimized across our area today is the westerly downslope wind. Winds blowing down the eastern side of the mountains tend to dry out the air and suppress convection. Dew points are in the upper 50s and low 60s in Southwest Virginia right now ... we can sometimes get some pretty big storms out of that kind of moisture, under the right conditions, but not as easily as with the upper 60s and lower 70s dew points farther east. In the tornado watch area, winds blowing out of the south and southwest may be able to give the storms that develop there a little bit of a turn, so some hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes are possible, hence the tornado watch. The stronger wind dynamics throughout the atmosphere are much farther north, in the tornado watch that was issued earlier today for northern Virginia. In Southwest Virginia, don't be surprised to see a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two this evening as a cold front moves into the area. While some gusty winds or small hail are possible, a widespread severe weather episode appears increasingly unlikely for our immediate area.

Severe weather threat for Virginia on Saturday

UPDATE NOON SATURDAY: A tornado watch is in effect for northern Virginia and surrounding states, as this statement and map from the Storm Prediction Center shows. We'll see how and if any of this threat spreads our way later today.

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Severe weather has been dogging the central U.S. for much of the last nine days. Some of that threat will extend eastward toward Virginia on Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. As the inset map shows, areas in red with a slightly higher risk of severe weather (30 percent within 30 miles of any given point), the higher chances of severe weather will be to the west and east of us. To the east, a weak area of low pressure developing east of the mountains might pull enough backed winds from the east to create some rotation that could lead to large hail, strong winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. We'll have to watch on Saturday to see where these storms begin developing, whether they will be along or just east of the Blue Ridge. A larger complex of storms from the west may affect Southwest Virginia late in the afternoon or in the evening, bringing a threat of gusty winds and some hail. Now that temperatures are climbing into the 80s and some moisture is returning, we shouldn't be surprised by occasional threats of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe from time to time.

Check the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service at Blacksburg on Saturday for the latest on severe weather threats in our area.

Virginia could see severe storms today

While I am out in the Texas Panhandle with the storm chasing team, continuing to work slowly northward toward a multi-day late-week severe weather threat, parts of Virginia mostly just east of the Blue Ridge have a slight risk of severe weather today as a new cold front and strong upper-level wind energy move into the area. Though moisture will be not be extremely thick and heating will be modest, there is extremely cold air aloft, and that could allow storms to bubble upward during the afternoon. These storms may be able to unleash some strong winds and localized hail, mostly east of Roanoke, but don't rule out a few along the I-81 corridor. The chilly weather you've seen this week and these southeast-moving storm systems are the result of a large Canadian air mass that has overspread much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. It has shut off the Gulf of Mexico and therefore shut down much severe weather potential in the central U.S. A pattern change is ahead for the central U.S., but cooler than normal weather may hang on stubbornly along the East Coast.

Another deadly day in the nation's mid-section

The tornado death toll continues to climb this spring, with at least 19 killed in Oklahoma and Missouri today. This is the same storm system that will bring a threat of heavy rain to Southwest Virginia on Sunday. A flood watch has been issued for several counties just east of the Blue Ridge, where the rain was heaviest on Thursday night and will face a greater flood risk with additional rain.