Between the risk zones for severe weather
Posted Jul30, 2008 at 09:41 AM
Well, here was what I was talking about in
today's Weather Journal column in the newspaper. Today's risk area for severe weather is to our north (though shifted more eastward from where it was forecasted Tuesday) and Thursday's risk area is to our south and east (shifted farther away from us than it was forecasted Tuesday. Generally, a slight risk of severe weather is issued when there is a 15 percent or better chance that high wind (58 mph or greater) or large hail (3/4 inch or larger) will occur within 30 miles of any given location. It reflects the expectation that organized severe weather will occur, but areal coverage will be limited.
The severe weather risk to our northeast today reflects an expectation that storms developing along the Blue Ridge will move eastward into an area of greater atmospheric shear, where winds are changing direction with height. The severe weather risk to our southeast on Thursday reflects an expectation that high heat and humidity may cause a few storms to erupt explosively, leading to localized downdrafts of strong winds. For Southwest Virginia, we are still close enough to both areas that we could have some similar effects, though as of now it is not expected to be to the same degree. Definitely expect some scattered storms to occur today, and a few of them may approach at least the minimal criteria to be classified as severe. The same on Thursday. After that, things dry out and heat up toward the weekend and early next week.
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