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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Big problem for Houston; drought continues here

Storm surge is already building at Galveston, Texas, as Hurricane Ike approaches, and authorities are warning residents living in small homes along the Galveston shore that Ike's arrival would mean certain death. Ike's projected path is very, very bad news for Houston and Galveston, placing Galveston Bay on the stronger east side of the eyewall, if the central forecast track is close to accurate. It will not be good for the American economy, either, since so much gas and oil infrastructure is focused in that area ... but that's still a small side effect compared to the real threat to life and property that exists. It's still an upper-end Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. If it comes ashore at that speed, it would be comparable to Isabel that hit North Carolina and Virginia in 2003 ... and that was our state's most destructive natural disaster on record.

vadrought0911.png

Meanwhile, it's still dry here, as shown in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map. The effects of Tropical Storm Hanna are clearly seen, though, as much of central and northern Virginia east of the Blue Ridge has been removed from any kind of drought status, though moderate drought lingers from Roanoke south and west. Unfortunately, current forecasts still favor the Ohio Valley to get more of Ike's rain than our area, though the chances are better with Ike's projected turn northeast or east once it gets inland. Interestingly, the remnants of a former Pacific tropical system, Lowell, are also figuring into the expected heavy rain across the central U.S.

Comments

# 1

[September 12, 2008 4:10 PM]

Brandon R.

Kev,

I'm watching CNN and that water is already almost over the 17 foot seawall in Galveston! The storm won't make landfall for another ten to twelve hours.

This is a Cat 2 storm. How could the storm surge be this bad?

# 2

[September 12, 2008 4:49 PM]

Kevin Myatt

It's a Cat 2 but a big storm ... a person with a big hand can scoop more water than a kid with a small hand. I'm not a geologist and don't readily recall what the geography of the continental shelf is off the coast of Galveston, but if the water is shallow like much of the Gulf coastal area, the surge is higher. Also, the worst area of surge is coming directly into Galveston/Houston where the cameras are, unlike Gustav and other storms, where the media are usually clustered in a big city and the worst is hitting in a more rural location. So we're seeing more of the worst on TV than we typically would.

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Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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