It doesn't take a hurricane expert to take a look at
a satellite image of Tropical Storm Hanna this morning and say that it is not a healthy looking storm. Interaction with an upper-level low to the west has caused Hanna to choke on both dry air and strong shearing winds aloft.
Hanna, located just east of the Bahamas at midday, is still projected to move north and then northwest toward the Southeast coast, allowing it to get out of the influence of the upper-level low and possibly strengthen, before making a gradual turn northeastward, but
the current forecast track takes the center of circulation well east of our area over extreme southeastern Virginia. At this point, barring an unexpected burst of intensification, it's looking like a low-grade Category 1 hurricane for the coast of North Carolina. The
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center this morning is
projecting about an inch of rain over our part of Virginia, probably owing largely to upslope winds that could bank moisture against our mountains as Hanna passes east. The
National Hurricane Center also notes in its
11 a.m. forecast discussion of Hanna today that "because of the large, sprawling nature of the circulation, the exact trajectory of the center is relatively unimportant."
Hanna may well end up just being a warmup act for
Hurricane Ike, which doesn't share in Hanna's struggles. Again, it doesn't take a hurricane expert to look at
the satellite photo of Ike and tell that not only is it a healthy hurricane, it is a mighty one. It is a Category 4 storm, in fact, with winds of 140 mph.
Its forecast track will bring it near where Hanna is now by early next week, beginning to make a curve northward. So in a few days, we may well be looking at a strong hurricane, wondering where along the East Coast it will strike.
Today, though, will be another sunny, unseasonably hot day in Southwest Virginia with a high in Roanoke of around 90. The long-term trend appears to be for cooler than normal weather to establish itself in the next 2 weeks, as shown by this linked Climate Prediction Center map.
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