Heavy rain band in N.C.; how far west can it get?Posted Sep05, 2008 at 11:55 PMTropical Storm Hanna has held at 70-mph winds tonight, still 5 mph below the range of being classified as a hurricane. It's really an academic point ... as the National Hurricane Center loves to say in its discussions, there's not much difference in a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane. The center of the storm is still expected to come ashore in the early morning hours and then move northeastward into southeast Virginia. The question for us is how far west will heavy rain band near Raleigh (as of midnight) be able to move. What we've had so far is light rain resulting from weak bands of moisture being slung westward around Hanna's circulation. The main body of the system's rain shield will produce the heavier amounts. The official forecast is still for an inch or less of rain in the Roanoke and New River valleys, with the 2-4-inch stuff staying from Lynchburg and Danville eastward. that could change if the heavy rain band works a little farther west. Whatever happens, it looks like the heaviest rain will be done by early afternoon. |
About this blog
Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States." .....Advertisement.....
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Comments
[September 6, 2008 12:37 AM]
Brandon R.I was looking at that on radar. I'm working midnight shift tonight so I guess I'll know what happens in the next few hours.
I say it probably cuts off just before it gets here. You never know though..
[September 6, 2008 1:52 AM]
Brandon R.Actualy, looking at it now, I think it may actually make it to Roanoke. Could it possibly be enhanced by upslope as well?
[September 6, 2008 2:12 AM]
Kevin MyattIt's gonna be a close call for Roanoke ... may depend a lot on where the center of the storm is ... if it starts turning more northeast (still moving north as of 2 a.m.) we may see the westward advance of this rain area cease ...
[September 6, 2008 2:15 AM]
Brandon R.I'm looking at areas parallel to Roanoke further south to see where it's setting up. It looks to be getting near Charlotte, NC as of right now. If we keep a more northward direction for a while, we may get some brief heavy rain..
[September 6, 2008 2:23 AM]
Kevin MyattThat heavy rain band may keep pivoting inland ... it's actually a "deformation zone" akin to a winter-like storm where easterly winds from the tropical system are encountering westerly winds aloft and causing uplift ... if that rain band gets here, the rain forecasts are going to be way, way low ... we could see similar amounts as Fay in much less time, only a few hours ... it will be a sharp cutoff on the back edge, though ... reminds me of some of our snow events
[September 6, 2008 2:32 AM]
Brandon R.It's certainly creeping along slowly. All I know is that there is more and more yellow showing up on that radar.
Hopefully, we'll get just enough to put another ding in the drought. I have my fingers crossed.
[September 6, 2008 3:29 AM]
Kevin MyattLooks like the western edge right now (3:30 a.m.) is about Winston-Salem to Martinsville to Bedford ever so slowly expanding west. I'll check back on it in the morning.
[September 6, 2008 5:32 AM]
MikeIt is 5:30 in the morning and it is raining hard, but looking at the center on radar, it looks like it has a little turn to the northeast... if it was moving due north i think we would get alot more out of it...