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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Hurricane Ernesto

Posted Aug27, 2006 at 12:50 PM

UPDATE 7 P.M.: Ernesto has at least temporarily weakened to a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, but is expected to regain hurricane strength before affecting Cuba and Florida later.

ORIGINAL POST, 1 P.M.: Ernesto has become the season's first Atlantic basin hurricane this morning in the Caribbean. More and more, it looks like this storm is going to hook right, with current forecasts bringing Ernesto into west Florida on a path very similar to what Hurricane Charley followed in 2004. It's likely that will be adjusted, and at this point, it seems doubtful that Ernesto will be as strong as Charley. Crossing Cuba may take some gusto out of Ernesto.

The storm may hook so far east as to not be a major factor in Southwest Virginia's weather, as a cool dip in the jet stream from Canada may shove Ernesto out into the Atlantic later this week. We're still in the zone of uncertainty for late week on Ernesto's path, so keep an eye on it.

I will not be updating this blog frequently this week, but you can click here for the latest National Hurricane Center information on Ernesto.

Comments

# 1

[August 29, 2006 12:16 PM]

Chip Konrad : →http://www.unc.edu/depts/geog/people/faculty/konrad/
If Ernesto moves northward across central VA as projected by NHC, there is the potential for serious flooding, particularly in the mtns/valleys northeast of Roanoke. His projected track is similar to that of Hurricane David, which produced a lot of rain back in Sept 1979. A large "blocking" high pressure is predicted to build to the north of the region, and some of forecast models suggest that this will slow down Ernesto, thus increasing the duration of the heavy rainfall. A similar scenario was observed in the slow movement of the extratropical low responsible for the November 1985 flooding; furthermore, the track of this system was similar to that, which is projected for Ernesto. If Ernesto tracks slightly farther west than expected, Roanoke may be in the zone of greatest flooding.
# 2

[August 29, 2006 12:46 PM]

Jeff Puuri
I have been watching the 5 day cone for Ernesto's track from the TPC over the last few days, and it seems to be continually shifting westward. As of this morning's 11 AM advisory, it appears the track has the storm coming really close through Roanoke and vicinity by Friday night into Saturday. DT's last update was from Sunday and he still had it going out to sea. I'd be curious if he will have an updated track for us soon.
# 3

[August 30, 2006 10:49 AM]

Kevin Myatt
Thanks for the comments, guys. I'm thinking the bulk of it slips a bit east, Roanoke gets a 2-3 inch rain out of it, while eastern Va. gets drenched. That's an educated guess at best. I'm away in Arkansas enjoying unseasonably cool weather behind the cold front.
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Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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