...Advertisement...

...Advertisement...

Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Ike's size, metropolitan target will rack up big damage dollar figures

Posted Sep12, 2008 at 09:21 PM

UPDATE 12:15 AM, 9/13: The large eye of Hurricane Ike is just offshore of Galveston and landfall is likely within the next couple of hours. Click here for the latest from the Associated Press. END UPDATE

ikeradar0912.gif

Notice the large eye of Hurricane Ike on this regional radar shot at about 9:15 p.m. So which is better: A large storm with somewhat less wind, or a smaller, more intense storm? Much of the Galveston area was devastated in 1983's Hurricane Alicia, which by contrast, was a tightly wound storm with a narrow zone of destructive winds around its eye. Ike is a large hurricane with a broad circulation center. Its hurricane-force winds extend more than 100 miles from the center, but without a tighter inner eye wall, it's doubtful that Ike will dramatically increase beyond its current 110-mph winds. At that intenstiy, Ike is already on the upper edge of Category 2 strength, and any increase will move it into Category 3 territory, which is considered the threshhold of a "major" hurricane. Major or not, the large size of the storm will mean a wider area suffers at least some damage. Expect to see widespread coastal damage from storm surge, significant damage from winds, and flooding from heavy rains well inland. There will also probably be a few tornadoes to the east of the storm as it moves inland.

Keep in mind that Katrina was "only" a Category 3 when it made landfall, though it had been a Category 5. I would think this storm would have a chance to be among the top few most destructive storms on record, simply because it's targeting a densely populated metropolitan area with expensive commercial, industrial and governmental development. Even just moderate damage in such an area, compounded by the storm's size, would rack up billions of dollars in damage.

Ike will probably make landfall between midnight and sunrise.

The latest rainfall forecast map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center takes almost all of Ike's rain northeast into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, leaving Virginia almost dry over the next 5 days. That's not good news for our drought.

Comments

# 1

[September 12, 2008 10:24 PM]

Brandon R.

You're not going to believe this but surge from Ike has broken a levee near New Orleans, LA and hundreds of homes are flooded per CNN, WDSU and WWLTV.

This shows how expansive this storm is because Ike's eye is nowhere near New Orleans.

# 2

[September 12, 2008 11:10 PM]

Jeff P

There is live streaming continuous coverage going on this evening and probably through the night from Houston Channel 11 at khou.com. It is pretty interesting news. They have a pretty good weather coverage team with good live graphics and radar. It is the channel I always watched when I lived there.

Post a comment





Search


Weather bulletins

Monthly archives

Categories

Related links

From the Weather Channel

Conditions and storms

Other local weather sites

Special packages

Kevin Myatt's weather columns

About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

E-mail Kevin

RSS feed

.....Advertisement.....